Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Anti-cholinergic load, health care utilization, and survival in people with advanced cancer: a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Anti-cholinergic medications have been associated with increased risks of cognitive impairment, premature mortality and increased risk of hospitalisation. Anti-cholinergic load associated with medication increases as death approaches in those with advanced cancer, yet little is known about associated adverse outcomes in this setting. METHODS: A substudy of 112 participants in a randomised control trial who had cancer and an Australia modified Karnofsky Performance Scale (AKPS) score (AKPS) of 60 or above, explored survival and health service utilisation; with anti-cholinergic load calculated using the Clinician Rated Anti-cholinergic Scale (modified version) longitudinally to death. A standardised starting point for prospectively calculating survival was an AKPS of 60 or above. RESULTS: Baseline entry to the sub-study was a mean 62 +/- 81 days (median 37, range 1-588) days before death (survival), with mean of 4.8 (median 3, SD 4.18, range 1 - 24) study assessments in this time period. Participants spent 22% of time as an inpatient. There was no significant association between anti-cholinergic score and time spent as an inpatient (adjusted for survival time) (p = 0.94); or survival time. DISCUSSION: No association between anti-cholinergic load and survival or time spent as an inpatient was seen. Future studies need to include cognitively impaired populations where the risks of symptomatic deterioration may be more substantial.

Strategic non-cooperation as soft balancing: Why Iraq was not just about Iraq

Many commentators explain recent transatlantic rifts by pointing to diverging norms, interests and geopolitical preferences. This paper proceeds from the premise that not all situations of conflict are necessarily due to underlying deadlocked preferences. Rather, non-cooperation may be a strategic form of soft balancing. That is, more generally, if they believe that they are being shortchanged in terms of influence and payoffs, weaker states may deliberately reject possible cooperation in the short run to improve their influence vis-à-vis stronger states in the long run. This need not be due to traditional relative gains concern. States merely calculate that their reputation as a weak negotiator will erode future bargaining power and subsequently their future share of absolute gains. Strategic non-cooperation is therefore a rational signal of resolve. This paper develops the concept of strategic non-cooperation as a soft balancing tool and applies it to the Iraq case in 2002-2003. © 2005 Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.

Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade

On efficiency grounds, the economics community has to date tended to emphasize price-based policies to address climate change - such as taxes or a "safety-valve" price ceiling for cap-and-trade - while environmental advocates have sought a more clear quantitative limit on emissions. This paper presents a simple modification to the idea of a safety valve - a quantitative limit that we call the allowance reserve. Importantly, this idea may bridge the gap between competing interests and potentially improve efficiency relative to tax or other price-based policies. The last point highlights the deficiencies in several previous studies of price and quantity controls for climate change that do not adequately capture the dynamic opportunities within a cap-and-trade system for allowance banking, borrowing, and intertemporal arbitrage in response to unfolding information.

Suppression of the Hepatitis C viral load by Phyllanthus niruri extracts

Gemstone Team ANTIDOTE

Design of Scheduling Algorithms Using Game Theoretic Ideas

Scheduling a set of jobs over a collection of machines to optimize a certain quality-of-service measure is one of the most important research topics in both computer science theory and practice. In this thesis, we design algorithms that optimize {\em flow-time} (or delay) of jobs for scheduling problems that arise in a wide range of applications. We consider the classical model of unrelated machine scheduling and resolve several long standing open problems; we introduce new models that capture the novel algorithmic challenges in scheduling jobs in data centers or large clusters; we study the effect of selfish behavior in distributed and decentralized environments; we design algorithms that strive to balance the energy consumption and performance.

The technically interesting aspect of our work is the surprising connections we establish between approximation and online algorithms, economics, game theory, and queuing theory. It is the interplay of ideas from these different areas that lies at the heart of most of the algorithms presented in this thesis.

The main contributions of the thesis can be placed in one of the following categories.

1. Classical Unrelated Machine Scheduling: We give the first polygorithmic approximation algorithms for minimizing the average flow-time and minimizing the maximum flow-time in the offline setting. In the online and non-clairvoyant setting, we design the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the weighted flow-time in the resource augmentation model. Our work introduces iterated rounding technique for the offline flow-time optimization, and gives the first framework to analyze non-clairvoyant algorithms for unrelated machines.

2. Polytope Scheduling Problem: To capture the multidimensional nature of the scheduling problems that arise in practice, we introduce Polytope Scheduling Problem (\psp). The \psp problem generalizes almost all classical scheduling models, and also captures hitherto unstudied scheduling problems such as routing multi-commodity flows, routing multicast (video-on-demand) trees, and multi-dimensional resource allocation. We design several competitive algorithms for the \psp problem and its variants for the objectives of minimizing the flow-time and completion time. Our work establishes many interesting connections between scheduling and market equilibrium concepts, fairness and non-clairvoyant scheduling, and queuing theoretic notion of stability and resource augmentation analysis.

3. Energy Efficient Scheduling: We give the first non-clairvoyant algorithm for minimizing the total flow-time + energy in the online and resource augmentation model for the most general setting of unrelated machines.

4. Selfish Scheduling: We study the effect of selfish behavior in scheduling and routing problems. We define a fairness index for scheduling policies called {\em bounded stretch}, and show that for the objective of minimizing the average (weighted) completion time, policies with small stretch lead to equilibrium outcomes with small price of anarchy. Our work gives the first linear/ convex programming duality based framework to bound the price of anarchy for general equilibrium concepts such as coarse correlated equilibrium.

Multi-touch and keyboard/mouse devices comparison in an information search task: influence on cognitive load and task engagement

Nowadays multi-touch devices (MTD) can be found in all kind of contexts. In the learning context, MTD availability leads many teachers to use them in their class room, to support the use of the devices by students, or to assume that it will enhance the learning processes. Despite the raising interest for MTD, few researches studying the impact in term of performance or the suitability of the technology for the learning context exist. However, even if the use of touch-sensitive screens rather than a mouse and keyboard seems to be the easiest and fastest way to realize common learning tasks (as for instance web surfing behaviour), we notice that the use of MTD may lead to a less favourable outcome. The complexity to generate an accurate fingers gesture and the split attention it requires (multi-tasking effect) make the use of gestures to interact with a touch-sensitive screen more difficult compared to the traditional laptop use. More precisely, it is hypothesized that efficacy and efficiency decreases, as well as the available cognitive resources making the users’ task engagement more difficult. Furthermore, the presented study takes into account the moderator effect of previous experiences with MTD. Two key factors of technology adoption theories were included in the study: familiarity and self-efficacy with the technology.Sixty university students, invited to a usability lab, are asked to perform information search tasks on an online encyclopaedia. The different tasks were created in order to execute the most commonly used mouse actions (e.g. right click, left click, scrolling, zooming, key words encoding…). Two different conditions were created: (1) MTD use and (2) laptop use (with keyboard and mouse). The cognitive load, self-efficacy, familiarity and task engagement scales were adapted to the MTD context. Furthermore, the eye-tracking measurement would offer additional information about user behaviours and their cognitive load.Our study aims to clarify some important aspects towards the usage of MTD and the added value compared to a laptop in a student learning context. More precisely, the outcomes will enhance the suitability of MTD with the processes at stakes, the role of previous knowledge in the adoption process, as well as some interesting insights into the user experience with such devices.

Exploring the benefits of using multi-touch devices in performing information search tasks: An analysis in terms of performance, cognitive load and task engagement

Over the last decade, multi-touch devices (MTD) have spread in a range of contexts. In the learning context, MTD accessibility leads more and more teachers to use them in their classroom, assuming that it will improve the learning activities. Despite a growing interest, only few studies have focused on the impacts of MTD use in terms of performance and suitability in a learning context.However, even if the use of touch-sensitive screens rather than a mouse and keyboard seems to be the easiest and fastest way to realize common learning tasks (as for instance web surfing), we notice that the use of MTD may lead to a less favorable outcome. More precisely, tasks that require users to generate complex and/or less common gestures may increase extrinsic cognitive load and impair performance, especially for intrinsically complex tasks. It is hypothesized that task and gesture complexity will affect users’ cognitive resources and decrease task efficacy and efficiency. Because MTD are supposed to be more appealing, it is assumed that it will also impact cognitive absorption. The present study also takes into account user’s prior knowledge concerning MTD use and gestures by using experience with MTD as a moderator. Sixty university students were asked to perform information search tasks on an online encyclopedia. Tasks were set up so that users had to generate the most commonly used mouse actions (e.g. left/right click, scrolling, zooming, text encoding…). Two conditions were created: MTD use and laptop use (with mouse and keyboard) in order to make a comparison between the two devices. An eye tracking device was used to measure user’s attention and cognitive load. Our study sheds light on some important aspects towards the use of MTD and the added value compared to a laptop in a student learning context.

A new heuristic for three-machine flow shop scheduling

This paper considers the problem of sequencing n jobs in a three-machine flow shop with the objective of minimizing the makespan, which is the completion time of the last job. An O(n log n) time heuristic that is based on Johnson's algorithm is presented. It is shown to generate a schedule with length at most 5/3 times that of an optimal schedule, thereby reducing the previous best available worst-case performance ratio of 2. An application to the general flow shop is also discussed.

Shop scheduling problems under precedence constraints

The paper considers a scheduling model that generalizes the well-known open shop, flow shop, and job shop models. For that model, called the super shop, we study the complexity of finding a time-optimal schedule in both preemptive and non-preemptive cases assuming that precedence constraints are imposed over the set of jobs. Two types of precedence rela-tions are considered. Most of the arising problems are proved to be NP-hard, while for some of them polynomial-time algorithms are presented.

Two-stage no-wait scheduling models with setup and removal times separated

This paper studies two models of two-stage processing with no-wait in process. The first model is the two-machine flow shop, and the other is the assembly model. For both models we consider the problem of minimizing the makespan, provided that the setup and removal times are separated from the processing times. Each of these scheduling problems is reduced to the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). We show that, in general, the assembly problem is NP-hard in the strong sense. On the other hand, the two-machine flow shop problem reduces to the Gilmore-Gomory TSP, and is solvable in polynomial time. The same holds for the assembly problem under some reasonable assumptions. Using these and existing results, we provide a complete complexity classification of the relevant two-stage no-wait scheduling models.

Approximation algorithms for two-machine flow shop scheduling with batch setup times

In many practical situations, batching of similar jobs to avoid setups is performed while constructing a schedule. This paper addresses the problem of non-preemptively scheduling independent jobs in a two-machine flow shop with the objective of minimizing the makespan. Jobs are grouped into batches. A sequence independent batch setup time on each machine is required before the first job is processed, and when a machine switches from processing a job in some batch to a job of another batch. Besides its practical interest, this problem is a direct generalization of the classical two-machine flow shop problem with no grouping of jobs, which can be solved optimally by Johnson's well-known algorithm. The problem under investigation is known to be NP-hard. We propose two O(n logn) time heuristic algorithms. The first heuristic, which creates a schedule with minimum total setup time by forcing all jobs in the same batch to be sequenced in adjacent positions, has a worst-case performance ratio of 3/2. By allowing each batch to be split into at most two sub-batches, a second heuristic is developed which has an improved worst-case performance ratio of 4/3. © 1998 The Mathematical Programming Society, Inc. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

The open shop scheduling problem with a given sequence of jobs on one machine

The paper considers the open shop scheduling problem to minimize the make-span, provided that one of the machines has to process the jobs according to a given sequence. We show that in the preemptive case the problem is polynomially solvable for an arbitrary number of machines. If preemption is not allowed, the problem is NP-hard in the strong sense if the number of machines is variable, and is NP-hard in the ordinary sense in the case of two machines. For the latter case we give a heuristic algorithm that runs in linear time and produces a schedule with the makespan that is at most 5/4 times the optimal value. We also show that the two-machine problem in the nonpreemptive case is solvable in pseudopolynomial time by a dynamic programming algorithm, and that the algorithm can be converted into a fully polynomial approximation scheme. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 705–731, 1998

Heuristics for short route job shop scheduling problems

We consider two “minimum”NP-hard job shop scheduling problems to minimize the makespan. In one of the problems every job has to be processed on at most two out of three available machines. In the other problem there are two machines, and a job may visit one of the machines twice. For each problem, we define a class of heuristic schedules in which certain subsets of operations are kept as blocks on the corresponding machines. We show that for each problem the value of the makespan of the best schedule in that class cannot be less than 3/2 times the optimal value, and present algorithms that guarantee a worst-case ratio of 3/2.

A heuristic algorithm for two-machine re-entrant shop scheduling

This paper considers the problem of sequencing n jobs in a two‐machine re‐entrant shopwith the objective of minimizing the maximum completion time. The shop consists of twomachines, M1 and M2 , and each job has the processing route (M1 , M2 , M1 ). An O(n log n)time heuristic is presented which generates a schedule with length at most 4/3 times that ofan optimal schedule, thereby improving the best previously available worst‐case performanceratio of 3/2.