The evolution of strategy: thinking war from antiquity to the present

Latin had no word for "strategy", but the East Romans, whom we call the Byzantines, did. This book tracks the evolution of the concept of warfare being subjected to higher political aims from Antiquity to the Present, using Greek, Latin, French, Spanish, Italian, English and German sources. It tracks the rise, fall, and resurrection of the belief in the Roman and later the medieval and early modern world that warfare was only legitimate if it pursued the higher goal of a just peace, which in the 19th century gave way to a blinkered concentration on military victory as only war aim. It explains why one school of thought, from Antiquity to the present, emphasised eternal principles of warfare, while others emphasised, in Clausewitz's term, the "changing character of war". It tracks ideas from land warfare to naval warfare to air power and nuclear thinking, but it also stresses great leaps and discontinuities in thinking about strategy. It covers asymmetric wars both from the point of view of the weaker power seeking to overthrow a stronger power, and from the stronger power dealing with insurgents and other numerically inferior forces. It concludes with a commentary of the long-known problems of bureaucratic politics, non-centralised command and inter-service rivalry, which since the 16th century or earlier has created obstacles to coherent strategy making.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models.

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and 5 height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, 10 and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a “random” model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global 15 vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the interannual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified 20 several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change 25 impacts and feedbacks.

High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120kyr

Interpretation of ice-core records is currently limited by paucity of modelling at adequate temporal and spatial resolutions. Several key questions relate to mechanisms of polar amplification and inter-hemispheric coupling on glacial/interglacial timescales. Here, we present the first results from a large set of global ocean–atmosphere climate model ‘snap-shot’ simulations covering the last 120 000 years using the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3) at up to 1 kyr temporal resolution. Two sets of simulations were performed in order to examine the roles of orbit and greenhouse gases versus ice-sheet forcing of orbital-scale climate change. A series of idealised Heinrich events were also simulated, but no changes to aerosols or vegetation were prescribed. This paper focuses on high latitudes and inter-hemispheric linkages. The simulations reproduce polar temperature trends well compared to ice-core reconstructions, although the magnitude is underestimated. Polar amplification varies with obliquity, but this variability is dampened by including variations in land ice coverage, while the overall amplification factor increases. The relatively constant amplification of Antarctic temperatures (with ice-sheet forcing included) suggests it is possible to use Antarctic temperature reconstructions to estimate global changes (which are roughly half the magnitude). Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation varies considerably only with the introduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but only weakens in the North Atlantic in the deep glacial, when ocean–sea-ice feedbacks result in the movement of the region of deep convection to lower latitudes and with the introduction of freshwater to the surface North Atlantic in order to simulate Heinrich events.

Carbon stable isotope analysis of cereal remains as a way to reconstruct water availability: preliminary results

Reconstructing past water availability, both as rainfall and irrigation, is important to answer questions about the way society reacts to climate and its changes and the role of irrigation in the development of social complexity. Carbon stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains is a potentially valuable method for reconstructing water availability. To further define the relationship between water availability and plant carbon isotope composition and to set up baseline values for the Southern Levant, grains of experimentally grown barley and sorghum were studied. The cereal crops were grown at three stations under five different irrigation regimes in Jordan. Results indicate that a positive but weak relationship exists between irrigation regime and total water input of barley grains, but no relationship was found for sorghum. The relationship for barley is site-specific and inter-annual variation was present at Deir ‘Alla, but not at Ramtha and Khirbet as-Samra.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Breeding biology of the White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis in Kruger National Park, South Africa

Information on the breeding biology of the White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis is limited and published data are few. Within the Kruger National Park in north-east South Africa there is a regionally important population of about 60 White-headed Vulture pairs, of which 22 pairs were monitored for five years between 2008 and 2012 to determine key aspects of their breeding biology. Across 73 pair/years the mean productivity of 55 breeding attempts was 0.69 chicks per pair. Median egg-laying date across all of the Kruger National Park was 27 June, but northern nests were approximately 30 d later than southern nests. Mean (SD) nearest-neighbour distance was 9 976  7 965 m and inter-nest distances ranged from 1 400 m to more than 20 km, but this did not differ significantly between habitat types. Breeding productivity did not differ significantly between habitat types. The results presented here are the first for this species in Kruger National Park and provide details against which future comparisons can be made.

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

Becoming a region, becoming global, becoming imperceptable: territorialising salmon in Chilean Patagonia

Our article focuses on the region of Chilean Patagonia and considers how it has developed as a leading producer of salmon for global food markets. It addresses the problem of how to decentre conventional views of the forces driving regional development that give primacy to the role of capital and technology, instead giving due recognition to the knowledge and practices of situated actors and to the relationships that form between human and non-human entities in food producing regions. As an alternative, we ask whether an assemblage approach can improve our understanding of regional transformation. To explore this question, we present original ethnographic data on constitutive practices that have transformed the Patagonian region, from the territorialization of Salmonidae species to experimentation in ocean ranching and sea water fish farming, and finally the development of a global industry. The evidence leads us to argue that in a complex globalised world, assemblage theory offers a valuable approach for understanding how regional potential is realised. In the case of Chilean Patagonia, it is apparent that forms of bio-power generate new relations between life, agency and nature, stimulating contemporary regional transformations in ways overlooked by the lineal logic of capital objectification discourses. Applying an assemblage approach enables the significance of new contemporary human – non-human relationships and inter-subjectivities to come to the fore, keeping the social in view as potential for regional transformation and new power asymmetries continuously emerge.

Impact of Interbasin Exchange on the Atlantic Overturning Circulation

The ther mohaline exchange between the Atlantic and the Souther n Ocean is analyzed, using a dataset based on WOCE hydrographic data. It is shown that the salt and heat transports brought about by the South Atlantic subtropical gyre play an essential role in the Atlantic heat and salt budgets. It is found that on average the exported North Atlantic Deep W ater (NADW) is fresher than the retur n flows (basically composed of ther mocline and inter mediate water), indicating that the overtur ning circulation (OC) exports freshwater from the Atlantic. The sensitivity of the OC to interbasin fluxes of heat and salt is studied in a 2 D model, representing the Atlantic between 60 8 N and 30 8 S. The model is forced by mixed boundar y conditions at the sur face, and by realistic fluxes of heat and salt at its 30 8 S boundar y. The model circulation tur ns out to be ver y sensitive to net buoyancy fluxes through the sur face. Both net sur face cooling and net sur face saltening are sources of potential energy and impact positively on the circulation strength. The vertical distributions of the lateral fluxes tend to stabilize the stratification, and, as they extract potential energy from the system, tend to weaken the flow . These results imply that a change in the composition of the NADW retur n transports, whether by a change in the ratio ther mocline/inter mediate water , o r by a change in their ther mohaline characteristics, might influence the Atlantic OC considerably . It is also shown that the circulation is much more sensitive to changes in the shape of the lateral buoyancy flux than to changes in the shape of the sur face buoyancy flux, as the latter does not explicitly impact on the potential energy of the system. It is concluded that interocean fluxes of heat and salt are important for the strength and operation of the Atlantic ther mohaline circulation, and should be correctly represented in models that are used for climate sensitivity studies.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.

A multi level analysis on pollination-related policies

The paper explores pollination from a multi level policy perspective and analyses the institutional fit and inter play of multi-faceted pollination-related policies. First, it asks what the major policies are that frame pollination at the EU level. Second, it explores the relationship between the EU policies and localised ways of understanding pollination. Addressed third is how the concept of ecosystem services can aid in under- standing the various ways of framing and governing the situation. The results show that the policy systems affecting pollination are abundant and that these systems create different kinds of pressure on stakeholders, at several levels of society. The local-level concerns are more about the loss of pollination services than about loss of pollinators. This points to the problem of fit between local activity driven by economic reasoning and biodiversity-driven EU policies. Here we see the concept of ecosystem services having some potential, since its operationalisation can combine economic and environmental considerations. Further- more, the analysis shows how, instead of formal institutions, it seems that social norms, habits, and motivation are the key to understanding and developing effective and attractive governance measures.

Layout och typografi i vetenskapliga artiklar : En kartläggning av konventioner gällande grafisk formgivning inom matematik, medicin och utbildningsvetenskap

En deskriptiv visuell innehållsanalys genomfördes med en korpus bestående av vetenskapliga artiklar från 30 topprankade tidskrifter jämnt fördelade på de tre disciplinerna matematik, medicin och utbildningsvetenskap, med syfte att undersöka om det fanns ett samband mellan tidskrifternas disciplintillhörighet och den grafiska formgivningen. Kartläggningen omfattade layout (bl.a. sidformat, spalter, marginalstorlek, användning av grafiska element, placering av tabeller, figurer och pagina) och typografiskt utseende hos titel, rubriker, brödtext och abstrakt (t.ex. teckenstorlek, textjustering, teckengrovlek, typsnitt, färg och radavstånd). Resultaten visar att disciplinerna använde olika men även gemensamma konventioner i sitt grafiska utseende. Matematik uppvisade enkelspaltig layout med liten typografisk variation, genomgående användning av typsnitt från familjen Transitional eller Transitional/Didone för hela dokumentet, avsaknad av kulört färg och sällan användning av grafiska element. Medicin uppvisade större variation med användning av kulört färg, icke-centrerad typografi med både sansseriff- och seriff-typsnitt, grafiska element och ramar som förstärker det ofta använda dubbelspaltiga gridsystemet. Utbildningsvetenskap uppvisade en grafisk design som återfanns i båda disciplinerna, men påminde mest om matematik till utseendet. Kodbok ingår i sin helhet som bilaga. Uppsatsen i sig är delvis formgiven med utgångspunkt i de erhållna resultaten.

Assessing the physical environment of older people’s residential care facilities: development of the Swedish version of the Sheffield Care Environment Assessment Matrix (S-SCEAM)

Background There is emerging evidence that the physical environment is important for health, quality of life and care, but there is a lack of valid instruments to assess health care environments. The Sheffield Care Environment Assessment Matrix (SCEAM), developed in the United Kingdom, provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical environment of residential care facilities for older people. This paper reports on the translation and adaptation of SCEAM for use in Swedish residential care facilities for older people, including information on its validity and reliability. Methods SCEAM was translated into Swedish and back-translated into English, and assessed for its relevance by experts using content validity index (CVI) together with qualitative data. After modification, the validity assessments were repeated and followed by test-retest and inter-rater reliability tests in six units within a Swedish residential care facility that varied in terms of their environmental characteristics. Results Translation and back translation identified linguistic and semantic related issues. The results of the first content validity analysis showed that more than one third of the items had item-CVI (I-CVI) values less than the critical value of 0.78.  After modifying the instrument, the second content validation analysis resulted in I-CVI scores above 0.78, the suggested criteria for excellent content validity. Test-retest reliability showed high stability (96% and 95% for two independent raters respectively), and inter-rater reliability demonstrated high levels of agreement (95% and 94% on two separate rating occasions). Kappa values were very good for test-retest (κ= 0.903 and 0.869) and inter-rater reliability (κ= 0.851 and 0.832). Conclusions Adapting an instrument to a domestic context is a complex and time-consuming process, requiring an understanding of the culture where the instrument was developed and where it is to be used. A team, including the instrument’s developers, translators, and researchers is necessary to ensure a valid translation and adaption. This study showed preliminary validity and reliability evidence for the Swedish version (S-SCEAM) when used in a Swedish context. Further, we believe that the S-SCEAM has improved compared to the original instrument and suggest that it can be used as a foundation for future developments of the SCEAM model.

Orientação para o mercado e desempenho financeiro: o panorama das concessionárias general motors no ramo automobilístico brasileiro

Este relatório trata de uma pesquisa sobre o Impacto da Orientação para o Mercado sobre o Desempenho Financeiro. Foi realizada uma revisão teórica e seguiu-se o delineamento de um modelo conceitual. Tal modelo foi testado empiricamente com os dados de uma amostra de 192 concessionárias de veículos General Motors operando no Brasil, utilizando-se do método de modelagem de equações estruturais. Apesar das limitações incidentes, o ajustamento global do Modelo revelou-se bem pequeno. Em especial, os vínculos causais entre os três componentes da Orientação para o Mercado (Orientação para o Consumidor, Orientação para a Concorrência e Coordenação Interdepartamental) mostraram-se como não significantes. Os resultados são discutidos à luz da literatura e suas implicações avaliadas. Mais pesquisas são necessárias para compreender esses complexos fenômenos.

O global e o contextual no aprendizado gerencial de multinacionais: uma perspectiva brasileira

The major purpose of this thesis is to verify, from a Brazilian perspective, how global and contextual issues influence the management learning in Multinationals. The management learning derived from the interaction of holding and sidiaries/colligates of Multinational corporation is supposed to be subject to convergent and divergent forces, the former related to global and standardized organizational practices, and the latter, is seen as a social practice subject to cultural and organizational singularities. A model was constructed to relate the dichotomy between the universality of the management practices and technologies and the particularity of the contexts where they operate, to the dichotomy between the singularities in organization and national level. This model is composed of the international, global, managerial and inter-organizational dimensions related, respectively, to the cultural and political diversity; to the universal forces of practices and values; to the managerial capabilities and resources in the organization, consolidated as best practices and to the interaction between holding and subsidiaries and the resulted learning. The combined result of these dimensions influences the knowledge flow and the learning derived from it. The field research was constituted of five cases of internationalized Brazilian firms, with a solid experience in their management systems. The main subjects of this study were executives and ofessionals/managers who respond to the management development. The data were first collected in the headquarters and complemented with visits to subsidiaries/joint ventures in other countries, in loco or with expatriated people who return to Brazil. The central supposition was validated. So, the management learning ¿ is driven by the global capitalism practices and by the global culture where they are immersed, reproducing a hegemonic vision and a common language (global dimension); ¿ incorporates the more propagated and dominant managerial values, although there are some variations when they are applied in the subsidiaries/joint ventures; is the product of the assimilation of international recognized and planned managerial practices, with the acculturation power, although not completely; is the result mainly of the managerial practice in work; is impacted not only by cross-cultural and managerial factors, but also by the business environment of the firm; is given according to the capabilities and resources in the organization, guiding the form of assimilation of practices and technologies, with global application or not (managerial dimension); ¿ is affected by the cross-cultural diversity involving the countries of the holding and the subsidiaries/joint ventures where the firm is and is given as a reproduction of the political context of the holding and subsidiaries countries (international dimension); ¿ faces aligned concurrent institutional pressures between corporate or global systems, practices of other subsidiaries/joint ventures and local practices; is more difficult to reach when there is not permeability between organizational cultures and identities of a Multinational firm; is affected by how much the relationship process across these unities is self-referenced; is facilitated by the construction and improvement of the knowledge network (interorganizational dimension). Finally some contributions of this study are exposed, including extensions of the proposed model and suggestions, recommendations for future research.