927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency
Resumo:
The net mechanical efficiency of positive work (eta(pos)) has been shown to increase if it is immediately preceded by negative work. This phenomenon is explained by the storage of elastic energy during the negative phase and its release during the subsequent positive phase. If a transition time (T) takes place, the elastic energy is dissipated into heat. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between eta(pos) and T, and to determine the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value. Seven healthy male subjects were tested during four series of lowering-raising of the body mass. In the first series (S (0)), the negative and positive phases were executed without any transition time. In the three other series, T was varied by a timer (0.12, 0.24 and 0.56 s for series S (1), S (2) and S (3), respectively). These exercises were performed on a force platform sensitive to vertical forces to measure the mechanical work and a gas analyser was used to determine the energy expenditure. The results indicated that eta(pos) was the highest (31.1%) for the series without any transition time (S (0)). The efficiencies observed with transition times (S (1), S (2) and S (3)) were 27.7, 26.0 and 23.8%, respectively, demonstrating that T plays an important role for mechanical efficiency. The investigation of the relationship between eta(pos) and T revealed that the minimal T required so that eta(pos) reached its minimal value is 0.59 s.
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OBJECT: The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term safety and efficacy of bilateral contemporaneous deep brain stimulation (DBS) in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable motor fluctuations. Bilateral pallidotomy carries a high risk of corticobulbar and cognitive dysfunction. Deep brain stimulation offers new alternatives with major advantages such as reversibility of effects, minimal permanent lesions, and adaptability to individual needs, changes in medication, side effects, and evolution of the disease. METHODS: Patients in whom levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with untreatable severe motor fluctuations has been clinically diagnosed underwent bilateral pallidal magnetic resonance image-guided electrode implantation while receiving a local anesthetic. Pre- and postoperative evaluations at 3-month intervals included Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) scoring, Hoehn and Yahr staging, 24-hour self-assessments, and neuropsychological examinations. Six patients with a mean age of 55 years (mean 42-67 years), a mean duration of disease of 15.5 years (range 12-21 years), a mean "on/off' Hoehn and Yahr stage score of 3/4.2 (range 3-5), and a mean "off' time of 40% (range 20-50%) underwent bilateral contemporaneous pallidal DBS, with a minimum follow-up period lasting 24 months (range 24-30 months). The mean dose of levodopa in these patients could not be changed significantly after the procedure and pergolide was added after 12 months in five patients because of recurring fluctuations despite adjustments in stimulation parameters. All but two patients had no fluctuations until 9 months. Two of the patients reported barely perceptible fluctuations at 12 months and two at 15 months; however, two patients remain without fluctuations at 2 years. The mean improvements in the UPDRS motor score in the off time and the activities of daily living (ADL) score were more than 50%; the mean off time decreased from 40 to 10%, and the mean dyskinesia and complication of treatment scores were reduced to one-third until pergolide was introduced at 12 months. No significant improvement in "on" scores was observed. A slight worsening after 1 year was observed and three patients developed levodopa- and stimulation-resistant gait ignition failure and minimal fluctuations at 1 year. Side effects, which were controlled by modulation of stimulation, included dysarthria, dystonia, and confusion. CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral pallidal DBS is safe and efficient in patients who have levodopa-responsive parkinsonism with severe fluctuations. Major improvements in motor score, ADL score, and off time persisted beyond 2 years after the operation, but signs of decreased efficacy started to be seen after 12 months.
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The Legislative Council created the Energy Efficiency Plans and Programs Study Committee for the 2008 Legislative Interim pursuant to the passage of S.F. 2386 during the 2008 Legislative Session, which provided, in Section 8: The Legislative Council is requested to establish an interim study committee to examine the existence and effectiveness of energy efficiency plans and programs implemented by gas and electric public utilities, with an emphasis on results achieved by current plans and programs from the demand, or customer, perspective, and to make recommendations for additional requirements applicable to energy efficiency plans and programs that would improve such results. In conducting the study and developing recommendations, the Committee shall consider testimony from the Iowa Utilities Board, rate and nonrate-regulated gas and electric utilities, the Consumer Advocate, state agencies involved with energy efficiency program administration, environmental groups and associations, and consumers.
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ABSTRACT : Research in empirical asset pricing has pointed out several anomalies both in the cross section and time series of asset prices, as well as in investors' portfolio choice. This dissertation aims to discover the forces driving some of these "puzzling" asset pricing dynamics and portfolio decisions observed in the financial market. Through the dissertation I construct and study dynamic general equilibrium models of heterogeneous investors in the presence of frictions and evaluate quantitatively their implications for financial-market asset prices and portfolio choice. I also explore the potential roots of puzzles in international finance. Chapter 1 shows that, by introducing jointly endogenous no-default type of borrowing constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic general-equilibrium economy, many empirical features of stock return volatility can be reproduced. While most of the research on stock return volatility is empirical, this paper provides a theoretical framework that is able to reproduce simultaneously the cross section and time series stylized facts concerning stock returns and their volatility. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature related to stock return volatility, I don't impose persistence or regimes in any of the exogenous state variables or in preferences. Volatility clustering, asymmetry in the stock return-volatility relationship, and pricing of multi-factor volatility components in the cross section all arise endogenously as a consequence of the feedback between the binding of no-default constraints and heterogeneous beliefs. Chapters 2 and 3 explore the implications of differences of opinion across investors in different countries for international asset pricing anomalies. Chapter 2 demonstrates that several international finance "puzzles" can be reproduced by a single risk factor which captures heterogeneous beliefs across international investors. These puzzles include: (i) home equity preference; (ii) the dependence of firm returns on local and foreign factors; (iii) the co-movement of returns and international capital flows; and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing events in the local market. These are reproduced in a setup with symmetric information and in a perfectly integrated world with multiple countries and independent processes producing the same good. Chapter 3 shows that by extending this framework to multiple goods and correlated production processes; the "forward premium puzzle" arises naturally as a compensation for the heterogeneous expectations about the depreciation of the exchange rate held by international investors. Chapters 2 and 3 propose differences of opinion across international investors as the potential resolution of several international finance `puzzles'. In a globalized world where both capital and information flow freely across countries, this explanation seems more appealing than existing asymmetric information or segmented markets theories aiming to explain international finance puzzles.
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On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.
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Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.
Resumo:
The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices
Resumo:
In this work the valuation methodology of compound option written on a downand-out call option, developed by Ericsson and Reneby (2003), has been applied to deduce a credit risk model. It is supposed that the firm has a debt structure with two maturity dates and that the credit event takes place when the assets firm value falls under a determined level called barrier. An empirical application of the model for 105 firms of Spanish continuous market is carried out. For each one of them its value in the date of analysis, the volatility and the critical value are obtained and from these, the default probability to short and long-term and the implicit probability in the two previous probabilities are deduced. The results are compared with the ones obtained from the Geskemodel (1977).
Resumo:
Està àmpliament acceptat que la descentralització fiscal incrementa el control dels ciutadans sobre els polítics, fomenta el rendiment de comptes i augmenta l¿eficiència. Aquest treball té per objectiu identificar les característiques socio-econòmiques dels ciutadans (votants potencials) que generen un major control sobre els responsables polítics locals provocant, així, un major nivell d'eficiència en un context descentralitzat.També s'analitzen les característiques fiscals dels governs locals que fomenten aquest control i eficiència. L'estudi s'ha aplicat a una mostra de municipis catalans seguint la metodologia convencional basada en l'estimació en dues etapes. A la primera etapa s'estima l'eficiència en que operen els municipis mitjançant la tècnica DEA. La novetat rau en el càlcul d'una nova versió d'indicador global d¿output municipal. En la segona etapa, a través d¿una estimació tipus Tobit (models censurats) i de mètodes bootstrap, es mostra com els factors abans comentats poden influir sobre l¿eficiència. Els resultats suggereixen que la forta presencia de comerciants, jubilats i persones amb dret a vot afavoreixen el control dels ciutadans, el rendiment de comptes i l¿eficiència. Un factor que facilita aquest control, i per tant una major eficiència, és la presència de baixos costos d'oportunitat d'obtenir informació sobre la gestió local dels serveis públics.
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[cat] Com afecten l’obertura comercial i financera a la volatilitat macroeconòmica? La literatura existent, tant empírica com teòrica, no ha assolit encara un consens. Aquest article usa un model microfonamentat de dos països simètrics amb entrada endògena d’empreses per estudiar-ho. L’anàlisis es du a terme per tres règims econòmics diferents amb diferents nivells d’integració internacional: una economia tancada, una autarquia financera i una integració plena. Es consideren diversos nivells d’obertura comercial, en forma de biaix domèstic de la demanda i l’economia pot patir pertorbacions en la productivitat del treball i en innovació. El model conclou que la incertesa macroeconòmica, representada principalment per la volatilitat del consum, la producció i la relació real d’intercanvi internacional, depèn del grau d’obertura i del tipus de pertorbació.
Resumo:
The objective of this study is to analyse the technical or productive efficiency ofthe refuse collection services in 75 municipalities located in the Spanish regionof Catalonia. The analysis has been carried out using various techniques. Firstly we have calculated a deterministic parametric frontier, then a stochastic parametric frontier, and finally, various non-parametric approaches (DEA and FDH). Concerning the results, these naturally differ according to the technique used to approach the frontier. Nevertheless, they have an appearance of solidity, at least with regard to the ordinal concordance among the indices of efficiency obtained by the different approaches, as is demonstrated by the statistical tests used. Finally, we have attempted to search for any relation existing between efficiency and the method (public or private) of managing the services. No significant relation was found between the type of management and efficiencyindices
Resumo:
Con este trabajo revisamos los Modelos de niveles de las tasas de intereses en Chile. Además de los Modelos de Nivel tradicionales por Chan, Karoly, Longstaff y Lijadoras (1992) en EE. UU, y Parisi (1998) en Chile, por el método de Probabilidad Maximun permitimos que la volatilidad condicional también incluya los procesos inesperados de la información (el modelo GARCH ) y también que la volatilidad sea la función del nivel de la tasa de intereses (modelo TVP-NIVELE) como en Brenner, Harjes y la Crona (1996). Para esto usamos producciones de mercado de bonos de reconocimiento, en cambio las producciones mensuales medias de subasta PDBC, y la ampliación del tamaño y la frecuencia de la muestra a 4 producciones semanales con términos(condiciones) diferentes a la madurez: 1 año, 5 años, 10 años y 15 años. Los resultados principales del estudio pueden ser resumidos en esto: la volatilidad de los cambios inesperados de las tarifas depende positivamente del nivel de las tarifas, sobre todo en el modelo de TVP-NIVEL. Obtenemos pruebas de reversión tacañas, tal que los incrementos en las tasas de intereses no eran independientes, contrariamente a lo obtenido por Brenner. en EE. UU. Los modelos de NIVELES no son capaces de ajustar apropiadamente la volatilidad en comparación con un modelo GARCH (1,1), y finalmente, el modelo de TVP-NIVEL no vence los resultados del modelo GARCH (1,1)
Resumo:
The genetic diversity of ten Bradyrhizobium strains was evaluated for tolerance to high temperatures, to different salinity levels and for the efficiency of symbiosis with cowpea plants (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.). Eight of these strains were isolated from nodules that appeared on cowpea after inoculation with suspensions of soil sampled from around the root system of Sesbania virgata (wand riverhemp) in ecosystems of South Minas Gerais. The other two strains used in our analyses as references, were from the Amazon and are currently recommended as cowpea inoculants. Genetic diversity was analyzed by amplifying repetitive DNA elements with the BOX primer, revealing high genetic diversity with each strain presenting a unique band profile. Leonard jar assays showed that the strains UFLA 03-30 and UFLA 03-38 had the highest N2-fixing potentials in symbiosis with cowpea. These strains had more shoot and nodule dry matter, more shoot N accumulation, and a higher relative efficiency than the strains recommended as inoculants. All strains grew in media of pH levels ranging from 4.0 to 9.0. The strains with the highest N2-fixing efficiencies in symbiosis with cowpea were also tolerant to the greatest number of antibiotics. However, these strains also had the lowest tolerance to high salt concentrations. All strains, with the exceptions of UFLA 03-84 and UFLA 03-37, tolerated temperatures of up to 40 ºC. The genetic and phenotypic characteristics of the eight strains isolated from soils of the same region were highly variable, as well as their symbiotic efficiencies, despite their common origin. This variability highlights the importance of including these tests in the selection of cowpea inoculant strains.