Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Reversal of gender differences in Educational Attainment – historical analysis of the West German Case

Background information: During the late 1970s and the early 1980s, West Germany witnessed a reversal of gender differences in educational attainment, as females began to outperform males. Purpose: The main objective was to analyse which processes were behind the reversal of gender differences in educational attainment after 1945. The theoretical reflections and empirical evidence presented for the US context by DiPrete and Buchmann (Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43: 1–24, 2006) and Buchmann, DiPrete, and McDaniel (Gender inequalities in education, Annual Review of Sociology 34: 319–37, 2008) are considered and applied to the West German context. It is suggested that the reversal of gender differences is a consequence of the change in female educational decisions, which are mainly related to labour market opportunities and not, as sometimes assumed, a consequence of a ‘boy’s crisis’. Sample: Several databases, such as the German General Social Survey, the German Socio-economic Panel and the German Life History Study, are employed for the longitudinal analysis of the educational and occupational careers of birth cohorts born in the twentieth century. Design and methods: Changing patterns of eligibility for university studies are analysed for successive birth cohorts and gender. Binary logistic regressions are employed for the statistical modelling of the individuals’ achievement, educational decision and likelihood for social mobility – reporting average marginal effects (AME). Results: The empirical results suggest that women’s better school achievement being constant across cohorts does not contribute to the explanation of the reversal of gender differences in higher education attainment, but the increase of benefits for higher education explains the changing educational decisions of women regarding their transition to higher education. Conclusions: The outperformance of females compared with males in higher education might have been initialised by several social changes, including the expansion of public employment, the growing demand for highly qualified female workers in welfare and service areas, the increasing returns of women’s increased education and training, and the improved opportunities for combining family and work outside the home. The historical data show that, in terms of (married) women’s increased labour market opportunities and female life-cycle labour force participation, the raising rates of women’s enrolment in higher education were – among other reasons – partly explained by their rising access to service class positions across birth cohorts, and the rise of their educational returns in terms of wages and long-term employment.

Religion and Ethnicity in Mongolian Societies. Historical and Contemporary Perspectives

This volume about religion and ethnicity in Mongolian societies is the outcome of an international seminar organized in Switzerland in 2009. Ten contributions explore the interplay of religion and ethnicity in the Mongolian and Buryat-Mongolian regions, covering four hundred years of Mongolian and Buryat history. Drawing on methods of diverse scholarly disciplines, including religious studies, Tibetan and Mongolian studies, social anthropology and history, the issues addressed include Mongolian identity formations in the light of the Tibeto-Mongolian interface in the 17th century, Buryat religious survival in the colonial setting of 18th and 19th century Russia, the interplay of religion and politics in Buryatia, a case study of the famous “Imperishable Body” of Khambo Lama Itigelov, an analysis of the religious politics of the Buryat Traditional Sangha in today’s Republic of Buryatia, the role of Shamanism in the identity practices of Modern Buryatia, as well as the revival of “traditional” religions like Buddhism and Shamanism in Mongolia and the emergence of new religions, especially Christianity. Furthermore, two contributions provide in-depth analyses of the dominant theoretical approaches that inform Russian and Anglophone scholarship dealing with these questions.

Jewish music in its historical development

by A. Z. Idelsohn

The Jewish Historical Society of England : Jews in the Canary Islands being a calendar of Jewish cases extracted from the records of the Canariote Inquisition in the collection of the Marquess of Bute

by Lucien Wolf. Transl. from the Spanish and ed. with an introd. and notes

American Judaism : the religion and religious institutions of the jewish people in the United States ; a historical survey

by Joseph Leiser

The jews of Baltimore : an historical summary of their progress and status as citizens of Baltimore from early days to the year 1910

by Isidor Blum. With special contrib. by William Rosenau ...

History of amulets, charms and talismans : a historical investigation into their nature and origin

by Michael L. Rodkinson

The Jew and human sacrifice : (Human blood and Jewish ritual) ; an historical and sociological inquiry

by Hermann L. Strack. The English transl. by Henry Blanchamp