942 resultados para hierarchical Bayesian models


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We consider a simple model consisting of particles with four bonding sites ("patches"), two of type A and two of type B, on the square lattice, and investigate its global phase behavior by simulations and theory. We set the interaction between B patches to zero and calculate the phase diagram as the ratio between the AB and the AA interactions, epsilon(AB)*, varies. In line with previous work, on three-dimensional off-lattice models, we show that the liquid-vapor phase diagram exhibits a re-entrant or "pinched" shape for the same range of epsilon(AB)*, suggesting that the ratio of the energy scales - and the corresponding empty fluid regime - is independent of the dimensionality of the system and of the lattice structure. In addition, the model exhibits an order-disorder transition that is ferromagnetic in the re-entrant regime. The use of low-dimensional lattice models allows the simulation of sufficiently large systems to establish the nature of the liquid-vapor critical points and to describe the structure of the liquid phase in the empty fluid regime, where the size of the "voids" increases as the temperature decreases. We have found that the liquid-vapor critical point is in the 2D Ising universality class, with a scaling region that decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. The results of simulations and theoretical analysis suggest that the line of order-disorder transitions intersects the condensation line at a multi-critical point at zero temperature and density, for patchy particle models with a re-entrant, empty fluid, regime. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3657406]

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We study the implications for two-Higgs-doublet models of the recent announcement at the LHC giving a tantalizing hint for a Higgs boson of mass 125 GeV decaying into two photons. We require that the experimental result be within a factor of 2 of the theoretical standard model prediction, and analyze the type I and type II models as well as the lepton-specific and flipped models, subject to this requirement. It is assumed that there is no new physics other than two Higgs doublets. In all of the models, we display the allowed region of parameter space taking the recent LHC announcement at face value, and we analyze the W+W-, ZZ, (b) over barb, and tau(+)tau(-) expectations in these allowed regions. Throughout the entire range of parameter space allowed by the gamma gamma constraint, the numbers of events for Higgs decays into WW, ZZ, and b (b) over bar are not changed from the standard model by more than a factor of 2. In contrast, in the lepton-specific model, decays to tau(+)tau(-) are very sensitive across the entire gamma gamma-allowed region.

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The idiomatic expression “In Rome be a Roman” can be applied to leadership training and development as well. Leaders who can act as role models inspire other future leaders in their behaviour, attitudes and ways of thinking. Based on two examples of current leaders in the fields of Politics and Public Administration, I support the idea that exposure to role models during their training was decisive for their career paths and current activities as prominent characters in their profession. Issues such as how students should be prepared for community or national leadership as well as cross-cultural engagement are raised here. The hypothesis of transculturalism and cross-cultural commitment as a factor of leadership is presented. Based on current literature on Leadership as well as the presented case studies, I expect to raise a debate focusing on strategies for improving leaders’ training in their cross-cultural awareness.

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Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

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Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

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Anaemia is known to have an impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modelling approaches. We aimed to (i) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) in anaemia endemicity; and (ii) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data for children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variations in these infections. Malnutrition, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6% and 9.8% of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria and S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anaemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control programme with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infections.

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We present a new dynamical approach to the Blumberg's equation, a family of unimodal maps. These maps are proportional to Beta(p, q) probability densities functions. Using the symmetry of the Beta(p, q) distribution and symbolic dynamics techniques, a new concept of mirror symmetry is defined for this family of maps. The kneading theory is used to analyze the effect of such symmetry in the presented models. The main result proves that two mirror symmetric unimodal maps have the same topological entropy. Different population dynamics regimes are identified, when the intrinsic growth rate is modified: extinctions, stabilities, bifurcations, chaos and Allee effect. To illustrate our results, we present a numerical analysis, where are demonstrated: monotonicity of the topological entropy with the variation of the intrinsic growth rate, existence of isentropic sets in the parameters space and mirror symmetry.

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In this work a new probabilistic and dynamical approach to an extension of the Gompertz law is proposed. A generalized family of probability density functions, designated by Beta* (p, q), which is proportional to the right hand side of the Tsoularis-Wallace model, is studied. In particular, for p = 2, the investigation is extended to the extreme value models of Weibull and Frechet type. These models, described by differential equations, are proportional to the hyper-Gompertz growth model. It is proved that the Beta* (2, q) densities are a power of betas mixture, and that its dynamics are determined by a non-linear coupling of probabilities. The dynamical analysis is performed using techniques of symbolic dynamics and the system complexity is measured using topological entropy. Generally, the natural history of a malignant tumour is reflected through bifurcation diagrams, in which are identified regions of regression, stability, bifurcation, chaos and terminus.

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We consider the quark sector of theories containing three scalar SU(2)(L) doublets in the triplet representation of A(4) (or S-4) and three generations of quarks in arbitrary A(4) (or S-4) representations. We show that for all possible choices of quark field representations and for all possible alignments of the Higgs vacuum expectation values that can constitute global minima of the scalar potential, it is not possible to obtain simultaneously nonvanishing quark masses and a nonvanishing CP-violating phase in the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa quark mixing matrix. As a result, in this minimal form, models with three scalar fields in the triplet representation of A(4) or S-4 cannot be extended to the quark sector in a way consistent with experiment. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.87.055010.

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We produce five flavour models for the lepton sector. All five models fit perfectly well - at the 1 sigma level - the existing data on the neutrino mass-squared differences and on the lepton mixing angles. The models are based on the type I seesaw mechanism, on a Z(2) symmetry for each lepton flavour, and either on a (spontaneously broken) symmetry under the interchange of two lepton flavours or on a (spontaneously broken) CP symmetry incorporating that interchange - or on both symmetries simultaneously. Each model makes definite predictions both for the scale of the neutrino masses and for the phase delta in lepton mixing; the fifth model also predicts a correlation between the lepton mixing angles theta(12) and theta(23).

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We study neutrino masses and mixing in the context of flavor models with A(4) symmetry, three scalar doublets in the triplet representation, and three lepton families. We show that there is no representation assignment that yields a dimension-5 mass operator consistent with experiment. We then consider a type-I seesaw with three heavy right-handed neutrinos, explaining in detail why it fails, and allowing us to show that agreement with the present neutrino oscillation data can be recovered with the inclusion of dimension-3 heavy neutrino mass terms that break softly the A(4) symmetry.

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This article is is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC) license lets others remix, tweak, and build upon work non-commercially, and although the new works must also acknowledge & be non-commercial.

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3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings, 11-14 June 2014, Lisbon Portugal.

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O problema de selecção de fornecedores/parceiros é uma parte integrante e importante nas empresas que se propõem a um desempenho competitivo e lucrativo na sua área de actividade. A escolha do melhor fornecedor/parceiro passa na maior parte da vezes por fazer uma análise cuidada dos factores que podem influenciar positiva ou negativamente essa escolha. Desde cedo este problema tem vindo a ser alvo de inúmeros estudos, estudos esses que se focam essencialmente nos critérios a considerar e nas metodologias a adoptar para optimizar a escolha dos parceiros. De entre os vários estudos efectuados, muitos são os que consideram como critérios chave o custo do produto, a qualidade, a entrega e a reputação da empresa fornecedora. Ainda assim, há muitos outros que são referidos e que na sua maioria se apresentam como subcritérios. No âmbito deste trabalho, foram identificados cinco grandes critérios, Qualidade, Sistema Financeiro, Sinergias, Custo e Sistema Produtivo. Dentro desses critérios, sentiu-se a necessidade de incluir alguns subcritérios pelo que, cada um dos critérios chave apresenta cinco subcritérios. Identificados os critérios, foi necessário perceber de que forma são aplicados e que modelos são utilizados para se poder tirar o melhor partido das informações. Sabendo que existem modelos que privilegiam a programação matemática e outros que fazem uso de ponderações lineares para se identificar o melhor fornecedor, foi realizado um inquérito e contactadas empresas por forma a perceber quais os factores que mais peso tinham nas suas decisões de escolha de parceiros. Interpretados os resultados e tratados os dados foi adoptado um modelo de ponderação linear para traduzir a importância de cada um dos factores. O modelo proposto apresenta uma estrutura hierárquica e pode ser aplicado com o método AHP de Saaty ou o método de Análise de Valor. Este modelo permite escolher a ou as alternativas que melhor se adequam aos requisitos das empresas.