Sensor networks for geospatial event detection - theory and applications

This thesis presents theories, analyses, and algorithms for detecting and estimating parameters of geospatial events with today's large, noisy sensor networks. A geospatial event is initiated by a significant change in the state of points in a region in a 3-D space over an interval of time. After the event is initiated it may change the state of points over larger regions and longer periods of time. Networked sensing is a typical approach for geospatial event detection. In contrast to traditional sensor networks comprised of a small number of high quality (and expensive) sensors, trends in personal computing devices and consumer electronics have made it possible to build large, dense networks at a low cost. The changes in sensor capability, network composition, and system constraints call for new models and algorithms suited to the opportunities and challenges of the new generation of sensor networks. This thesis offers a single unifying model and a Bayesian framework for analyzing different types of geospatial events in such noisy sensor networks. It presents algorithms and theories for estimating the speed and accuracy of detecting geospatial events as a function of parameters from both the underlying geospatial system and the sensor network. Furthermore, the thesis addresses network scalability issues by presenting rigorous scalable algorithms for data aggregation for detection. These studies provide insights to the design of networked sensing systems for detecting geospatial events. In addition to providing an overarching framework, this thesis presents theories and experimental results for two very different geospatial problems: detecting earthquakes and hazardous radiation. The general framework is applied to these specific problems, and predictions based on the theories are validated against measurements of systems in the laboratory and in the field.

Probabilistic robust control : theory and applications

In this work, the development of a probabilistic approach to robust control is motivated by structural control applications in civil engineering. Often in civil structural applications, a system's performance is specified in terms of its reliability. In addition, the model and input uncertainty for the system may be described most appropriately using probabilistic or "soft" bounds on the model and input sets. The probabilistic robust control methodology contrasts with existing H∞/μ robust control methodologies that do not use probability information for the model and input uncertainty sets, yielding only the guaranteed (i.e., "worst-case") system performance, and no information about the system's probable performance which would be of interest to civil engineers.

The design objective for the probabilistic robust controller is to maximize the reliability of the uncertain structure/controller system for a probabilistically-described uncertain excitation. The robust performance is computed for a set of possible models by weighting the conditional performance probability for a particular model by the probability of that model, then integrating over the set of possible models. This integration is accomplished efficiently using an asymptotic approximation. The probable performance can be optimized numerically over the class of allowable controllers to find the optimal controller. Also, if structural response data becomes available from a controlled structure, its probable performance can easily be updated using Bayes's Theorem to update the probability distribution over the set of possible models. An updated optimal controller can then be produced, if desired, by following the original procedure. Thus, the probabilistic framework integrates system identification and robust control in a natural manner.

The probabilistic robust control methodology is applied to two systems in this thesis. The first is a high-fidelity computer model of a benchmark structural control laboratory experiment. For this application, uncertainty in the input model only is considered. The probabilistic control design minimizes the failure probability of the benchmark system while remaining robust with respect to the input model uncertainty. The performance of an optimal low-order controller compares favorably with higher-order controllers for the same benchmark system which are based on other approaches. The second application is to the Caltech Flexible Structure, which is a light-weight aluminum truss structure actuated by three voice coil actuators. A controller is designed to minimize the failure probability for a nominal model of this system. Furthermore, the method for updating the model-based performance calculation given new response data from the system is illustrated.

A bayesian probabilistic approach to structural health monitoring

A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

Zirconocenes as models for homogeneous Ziegler-Natta olefin polymerization catalysts

Using density functional theory, we studied the fundamental steps of olefin polymerization for zwitterionic and cationic Group IV ansa-zirconocenes and a neutral ansa- yttrocene. Complexes [H₂E(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe]ⁿ (n = 0: E = BH₂ (1), BF₂ (2), AlH₂(3); n = +: E = CH₂(4), SiH₂(5)) and H₂Si(C₅H₄)₂YMe were used as computational models. The largest differences among these three classes of compounds were the strength of olefin binding and the stability of the β-agostic alkyl intermediate towards β-hydrogen elimination. We investigated the effect of solvent on the reaction energetics for land 5. We found that in benzene the energetics became very similar except that a higher olefin insertion barrier was calculated for 1. The calculated anion affinity of [CH₃BF₃]^- was weaker towards 1 than 5. The calculated olefin binding depended primarily on the charge of the ansa linker, and the olefin insertion barrier was found to decrease steadily in the following order: [H₂C(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe]⁺ > [F₂B(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe] ≈ [H₂B(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe] > [H₂Si(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe]⁺ > [H₂Al(C₅H₄)₂ZrMe].

We prepared ansa-zirconocene dicarbonyl complexes Me₂ECp₂Zr(CO)₂ (E = Si, C), and t-butyl substituted complexes (t-BuCp)₂Zr(CO)₂, Me₂E(t-BuCp)₂Zr(CO)₂ (E = Si, C), (Me₂Si)₂(t-BuCp)₂Zr(CO)₂ as well as analogous zirconocene complexes. Both the reduction potentials and carbonyl stretching frequencies follow the same order: Me₂SiCp₂ZrCl₂> Me₂CCp₂ZrCl₂> Cp₂ZrCl₂> (Me₂Si)₂Cp₂ZrCl₂. This ordering is a result of both the donating abilities of the cyclopentadienyl substituents and the orientation of the cyclopentadiene rings. Additionally, we prepared a series of analogous cationic zirconocene complexes [LZrOCMe₃][MeB(C₆F₅)₃] (L = CP₂, Me₂SiCp₂, Me₂CCP₂, (Me₂Si)₂Cp₂) and studied the kinetics of anion dissociation. We found that the enthalpy of anion dissociation increased from 10.3 kcal•mol^-1 to 17.6 kcal•mol^-1 as exposure of the zirconium center increased.

We also prepared series of zirconocene complexes bearing 2,2-dimethyl-2-sila-4-pentenyl substituents (and methyl-substituted olefin variants). Methide abstraction with B(C₆F₅) results in reversible coordination of the tethered olefin to the cationic zirconium center. The kinetics of olefin dissociation have been examined using NMR methods, and the effects of ligand variation for unlinked, singly [SiMe₂]-linked and doubly [SiMe₂]-linked bis(cyclopentadienyl) arrangements has been compared (ΔG‡ for olefin dissociation varies from 12.8 to 15.6 kcal•mol^-1). Methide abstraction from 1,2-(SiMe₂)₂(η⁵-C₅H₃)₂Zr(CH₃)-(CH₂CMe₂CH₂CH = CH₂) results in rapid β-allyl elimination with loss of isobutene yielding the allyl cation [{1,2-(SiMe₂)₂(η⁵-C₅H₃)₂Zr(η³-CH₂CH=CH₂)]⁺.

The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research

44 p.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation : observation, modeling, and theory

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of intense rainfall and associated planetary-scale circulations in the tropical atmosphere, with a recurrence interval of 30-90 days. Although the MJO was first discovered 40 years ago, it is still a challenge to simulate the MJO in general circulation models (GCMs), and even with simple models it is difficult to agree on the basic mechanisms. This deficiency is mainly due to our poor understanding of moist convection—deep cumulus clouds and thunderstorms, which occur at scales that are smaller than the resolution elements of the GCMs. Moist convection is the most important mechanism for transporting energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Success in simulating the MJO will improve our understanding of moist convection and thereby improve weather and climate forecasting.

We address this fundamental subject by analyzing observational datasets, constructing a hierarchy of numerical models, and developing theories. Parameters of the models are taken from observation, and the simulated MJO fits the data without further adjustments. The major findings include: 1) the MJO may be an ensemble of convection events linked together by small-scale high-frequency inertia-gravity waves; 2) the eastward propagation of the MJO is determined by the difference between the eastward and westward phase speeds of the waves; 3) the planetary scale of the MJO is the length over which temperature anomalies can be effectively smoothed by gravity waves; 4) the strength of the MJO increases with the typical strength of convection, which increases in a warming climate; 5) the horizontal scale of the MJO increases with the spatial frequency of convection; and 6) triggered convection, where potential energy accumulates until a threshold is reached, is important in simulating the MJO. Our findings challenge previous paradigms, which consider the MJO as a large-scale mode, and point to ways for improving the climate models.

The Uniform World Model: A Methodology for Predicting the Health Impacts of Air Pollution

47 p.

Características pessoais e institucionais e comportamentos de autocuidado de docentes de enfermagem segundo os modos adaptativos de Roy: estudo em Instituições Públicas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro

Este trabalho enfoca a promoção da vida através de comportamentos saudáveis, tendo como objetivos: delinear o perfil sociodemográfico e institucional/profissional dos docentes de enfermagem e analisar seus hábitos de vida, segundo os modos adaptativos de Roy. Foi utilizada a Teoria de Sister Callista Roy, destacando-se os modos de adaptação: fisiológico, autoconceito e interdependência. Implementou-se o método descritivo, quantitativo, transversal através da técnica de autorelato em amostra de 101 docentes. Para investigar esses aspectos, utilizou-se dois questionários, um deles com a escala de Likert, adaptado para a pesquisa. A produção de dados transcorreu de janeiro a março de 2009, após aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa, Protocolo 2187, e concordância das quatro instituições públicas de ensino universitário, do Estado do Rio de Janeiro-Brasil, selecionadas. Os dados obtidos foram submetidos á estatística, aplicando-se medidas de tendência central. Quanto ao perfil docente: predomina a faixa etária de 40 a 59 anos, com 69,3%, de união estável. Relacionando cor e crença religiosa, constatou-se 37,6% de católicos brancos. Dos 50 docentes, 5% têm residência própria, na zona norte. Possuem renda individual acima de 8 salários mínimos, 67,32%, a maioria com vínculo trabalhista. No tempo de serviço, 22,94% situam-se entre 11 a 15 anos, com carga horária de 20 a 40 horas. Quanto à titulação, 42,56% são doutores e 80,2% possuem um tipo de regime estatutário. Concernente aos Modos Adaptativos de Roy foi atribuído, predominantemente, o conceito A- hábitos de vida saudável, aos modos Fisiológicos e de Autoconceito, seguindo-se o de Interdependência, que apresentou quatro conceitos B- em busca de hábitos de vida saudável, sendo o mais homogêneo dos três modos. Identificou-se que o Modo Fisiológico foi heterogêneo, pois os valores das medidas de tendência central se distanciam entre si. Concluindo-se que o pressuposto formulado atendeu parcialmente às expectativas dos docentes por utilizarem, em benefício próprio, seus saberes sobre o cuidar promovendo o bem-estar com qualidade. Considerou-se que a interdependência pode ser conquistada pelos sujeitos, visto que o enfrentamento das suas atividades profissionais, paralelamente ao viver pessoal, pode ser motivo de satisfação com o trabalho docente, remuneração recebida, ambiente institucional, relações de poder/saber no trabalho, além da possibilidade de atender sua necessidade gregária promovendo o convívio com a família e amigos. Lembra-se que lidar com pessoas cujas subjetividades devem ser objetivadas, visando sua compreensão para o atendimento de saúde, exige equilíbrio e progresso das dimensões corporais física, mental e espiritual do profissional.

Sociopoetizando a construção das ações de autocuidado no envelhecimento saudável: uma aplicação da teoria de Nola Pender

O envelhecimento populacional no Brasil sobreleva a necessidade de organização de serviços de saúde, sendo a estimulação do autocuidado uma estratégia privilegiada para orientar programas de promoção da saúde para pessoas idosas. Face à busca das mais variadas formas de viver bem, abrem-se fronteiras possibilitando o surgimento de modelos de envelhecimento saudável. Partindo do pressuposto de que as pessoas possuem uma dimensão imaginativa no acrescentar qualidade aos anos de vida, delimitou-se como objeto de estudo o imaginário de um grupo da terceira idade na construção das ações de autocuidado. Objetivos: descrever a poética sobre as ações de autocuidado construídas por um grupo de pessoas idosas; e analisar os significados (conceitos/confetos) atribuídos por essas pessoas ao envelhecer. Utilizou-se como marco referencial a Teoria de Promoção da Saúde de Nola Pender. Trata-se de pesquisa descritiva, qualitativa, considerando o paradigma naturalista. Foi aplicado o método sociopoético por meio do dispositivo analítico Grupo Pesquisador, composto por 11 idosos participantes da Unati da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, que desenvolveram a investigação no período de outubro a dezembro de 2008, mediante as técnicas de pesquisa: Dinâmica de Corpo como Território Mínimo e a Vivência de Lugares Geomíticos. Foram questões norteadoras do estudo, respectivamente: Como vocês se cuidam para o caminho do bom envelhecer? E Como é o autocuidado para o envelhecer saudável se ele for um lugar geomítico?. Os dados produzidos foram submetidos à análise categorial, dos estudos sociopoéticos. No estudo filosófico, observou-se haver coexistência da autoimagem realista revelando que os idosos estão mais aptos aos desafios da vida, pois seu comportamento é coerente com a ideia que faz de si, além de intenções, aspirações e tendências. O classificatório ressaltou as dicotomias das ações de autocuidado tendo: O Autocuidado através dos Limites e Possibilidades; e Transcender para Experienciar o Dom do Envelhecer; O transversal revelou O Autocuidado como Reconhecimento das Necessidades de Saúde, enquanto no surreal sobrelevam-se Aceitar o Novo para um Renascer Saudável; Perseverança para Conviver com o Envelhecimento; e Procurar Assistência pode Desvelar Temores para a Finitude do Viver. Conclui-se que a compreensão do imaginário dos sujeitos de pesquisa mediada pela teoria de Pender permitiu identificar fatores que influenciam e motivam o autocuidado para comportamentos saudáveis. Assim, o grupo vislumbra para seu futuro uma imagem de envelhecer mais dinâmica, adotando para si próprio um viver mais autônomo, ativo e bem-sucedido. À contribuição do estudo, propõe-se aos enfermeiros a apropriação de conceitos teóricos como forma de traduzir a realidade e demonstrar alternativas viáveis de ações de cuidado/saúde, bem como a utilização das práticas de dinâmicas de criatividade e sensibilidade nas atividades assistenciais.

Free algebras in Von Neumann-Bernays-Gӧdel set theory and positive elementary inductions in reasonable structures

This thesis consists of two independent chapters. The first chapter deals with universal algebra. It is shown, in von Neumann-Bernays-Gӧdel set theory, that free images of partial algebras exist in arbitrary varieties. It follows from this, as set-complete Boolean algebras form a variety, that there exist free set-complete Boolean algebras on any class of generators. This appears to contradict a well-known result of A. Hales and H. Gaifman, stating that there is no complete Boolean algebra on any infinite set of generators. However, it does not, as the algebras constructed in this chapter are allowed to be proper classes. The second chapter deals with positive elementary inductions. It is shown that, in any reasonable structure ᶆ, the inductive closure ordinal of ᶆ is admissible, by showing it is equal to an ordinal measuring the saturation of ᶆ. This is also used to show that non-recursively saturated models of the theories ACF, RCF, and DCF have inductive closure ordinals greater than _ω.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.

Dynamical models for the Earth's geoid

The Earth's largest geoid anomalies occur at the lowest spherical harmonic degrees, or longest wavelengths, and are primarily the result of mantle convection. Thermal density contrasts due to convection are partially compensated by boundary deformations due to viscous flow whose effects must be included in order to obtain a dynamically consistent model for the geoid. These deformations occur rapidly with respect to the timescale for convection, and we have analytically calculated geoid response kernels for steady-state, viscous, incompressible, self-gravitating, layered Earth models which include the deformation of boundaries due to internal loads. Both the sign and magnitude of geoid anomalies depend strongly upon the viscosity structure of the mantle as well as the possible presence of chemical layering.

Correlations of various global geophysical data sets with the observed geoid can be used to construct theoretical geoid models which constrain the dynamics of mantle convection. Surface features such as topography and plate velocities are not obviously related to the low-degree geoid, with the exception of subduction zones which are characterized by geoid highs (degrees 4-9). Recent models for seismic heterogeneity in the mantle provide additional constraints, and much of the low-degree (2-3) geoid can be attributed to seismically inferred density anomalies in the lower mantle. The Earth's largest geoid highs are underlain by low density material in the lower mantle, thus requiring compensating deformations of the Earth's surface. A dynamical model for whole mantle convection with a low viscosity upper mantle can explain these observations and successfully predicts more than 80% of the observed geoid variance.

Temperature variations associated with density anomalies in the man tie cause lateral viscosity variations whose effects are not included in the analytical models. However, perturbation theory and numerical tests show that broad-scale lateral viscosity variations are much less important than radial variations; in this respect, geoid models, which depend upon steady-state surface deformations, may provide more reliable constraints on mantle structure than inferences from transient phenomena such as postglacial rebound. Stronger, smaller-scale viscosity variations associated with mantle plumes and subducting slabs may be more important. On the basis of numerical modelling of low viscosity plumes, we conclude that the global association of geoid highs (after slab effects are removed) with hotspots and, perhaps, mantle plumes, is the result of hot, upwelling material in the lower mantle; this conclusion does not depend strongly upon plume rheology. The global distribution of hotspots and the dominant, low-degree geoid highs may correspond to a dominant mode of convection stabilized by the ancient Pangean continental assemblage.

Formal languages, part theory, and change

A general definition of interpreted formal language is presented. The notion “is a part of" is formally developed and models of the resulting part theory are used as universes of discourse of the formal languages. It is shown that certain Boolean algebras are models of part theory.

With this development, the structure imposed upon the universe of discourse by a formal language is characterized by a group of automorphisms of the model of part theory. If the model of part theory is thought of as a static world, the automorphisms become the changes which take place in the world. Using this formalism, we discuss a notion of abstraction and the concept of definability. A Galois connection between the groups characterizing formal languages and a language-like closure over the groups is determined.

It is shown that a set theory can be developed within models of part theory such that certain strong formal languages can be said to determine their own set theory. This development is such that for a given formal language whose universe of discourse is a model of part theory, a set theory can be imbedded as a submodel of part theory so that the formal language has parts which are sets as its discursive entities.