Contribution to the geology of Southern Turkey: new insights from the Mersin mélanges and from the Lycian and Antalya nappes

Abstract The study of fossil Tethyan continental margins implies the consideration of the oceanic domains to which they were connected. The advent of plate tectonics confirmed the importance of the detection of accretion-related mélanges. Ophiolitic mélanges are derived from both an upper ophiolitic obducting plate and a lower oceanic plate. Besides ophiolitic elements, the mélanges may incorporate parts of a magmatic arc and dismembered fragments of a passive continental margin. As the lower plate usually totally disappears during the obduction process, it can only be reconstructed from its elements found in the mélanges. Because of their key location at active margin boundaries, preserved accretion-related mélanges provide strong constraints on the geological evolution of former oceanic domains and their adjacent margins. The identification of Palaeotethyan remnants as accretionary series or reworked during the Late Triassic Eo-Cimmerian event, as well as the recognition of HugluPindos marginal sequences in southern Turkey and in the external Hellenides represent the main achievements of this work, making possible to establish new palaeogeographical correlations. The Mersin mélanges (Turkey), together with the Antalya and Mamonia (Cyprus) domains, are characterized by a series of exotic units found now south of the main Taurus range and compose the South-Taurides Exotic Units. The Mersin mélanges are subdivided in a Triassic and a Late Cretaceous unit. These units consist of the remnants of three major Tethyan oceans, the Palaeotethys, the Neotethys and the Huglu-Pindos. The definition and inventory of the Upper Antalya Nappes (Turkey) are still a matter of controversies and often conflicting interpretations. The recognition of Campanian radiolarians on top of the Kerner Gorge unit directly overlain by the Ordovician Seydi§ehir Fm. of the Tahtah Dag Nappe outlines a tectonic contact and demonstrates that the Upper Antalya Nappes system is composed of three different nappes, the Kerner Gorge, Bakirli and the Tahtah Dag nappes. Additionally, a limestone block in a doubtful tectonic position at the base of the Upper Antalya Nappes yielded for the first time two middle Viséan associations of foraminifers and problematic algae. The Tavas Nappe in the Lycian Nappes (Turkey) is classically divided into the Karadag, Teke Dere, Köycegiz and Haticeana units. As for the Mersin mélanges, the Tavas Nappe is highly composite and includes dismembered units belonging to the Palaeotethyan, Neotethyan and HugluPindos realms. The Karadag unit consists of a Gondwana-type platform succession ranging from the Late Devonian to the Late Triassic. It belongs to the Cimmerian Taurus terrane and was part of the northern passive margin of the Neotethys. The Teke Dere unit is composed of different parts of the Palaeotethyan succession including Late Carboniferous OIB-type basalts, Carboniferous MORB-type basalts, an Early Carboniferous siliciclastic series and a Middle Permian arc sequence. The microfauna and microflora identified in different horizons within the Teke Dere unit share strong biogeographical affinities with the northern Palaeotethyan borders. Kubergandian limestones in primary contact above the Early Carboniferous siliciclastics yielded a rich and diverse microfauna and microflora also identified in reworked cobbles within the Late Triassic Gevne Fm. of the Aladag unit (Turkey). The sedimentological evolution of the Köycegiz and Haticeana series is in many points similar to classical Pindos sequences. These series originated in the Huglu-Pindos Ocean along the northern passive margin of the Anatolian (Turkish transect) and Sitia-Pindos (Greek transect) terranes. Conglomerates at the base of the Lentas Unit in southern Crete (Greece) yielded a microfauna and microflora presenting also strong affinities with the northern borders of the Palaeotethys. This type of reworked sediments at the base of Pindos-like series would suggest a derivation from the Palaeotethyan active margin. -Résumé (French abstract) L'étude des marges continentales fossiles de l'espace téthysien implique d'étudier les domaines océaniques qui y étaient rattachés. Les progrès de la tectonique des plaques ont confirmé l'importance de la reconnaissance des mélanges d'accrétion. Les mélanges ophiolitiques dérivent d'une plaque supérieure ophiolitique qui obducte, et d'une plaque inférieure océanique. En plus d'éléments ophiolitiques, les mélanges peuvent aussi incorporer des parties d'un arc magmatique, ou des fragments d'une marge continentale passive. Comme la plaque inférieure disparaît généralement complètement durant le processus d'obduction, elle ne peut être reconstruite qu'au travers de ses éléments trouvés dans les mélanges. A cause de leur situation aux limites de marges actives, les mélanges d'accrétion bien préservés permettent de contraindre l'évolution géologique d'anciens océans et de leurs marges. L'identification de vestiges de la Paléotéthys en série d'accrétion ou remaniés lors de l'orogenèse éo-cimmérienne au Trias supérieur, ainsi que l'observation de séquences marginales de Huglu-Pinde en Turquie du sud et dans les Hellénides externes représentent les principaux résultats de ce travail, permettant d'établir de nouvelles corrélations paléogéographiques. Les mélanges de Mersin (Turquie), avec les domaines d'Antalya et de Mamonia (Chypre), sont caractérisés par des unités exotiques se trouvant au sud de la chaîne taurique, et forment les Unités Exotiques Sud-Tauriques. Les mélanges de Mersin sont subdivisés en une unité triasique, et une autre du Crétacé supérieur. Ces unités comprennent les reliques de trois principaux océans téthysiens, la Paléotéthys, la Néotéthys et Huglu-Pinde. L'inventaire et la définition des nappes supérieures d'Antalya (Turquie) sont encore matière à controverse et donne lieu à des interprétations conflictuelles. La découverte de radiolaires campaniens au sommet de l'unité de la Gorge de Kemer, directement recouverts par la formation ordovicienne de Seydisehir de la nappe du Tahtali Dag met en évidence un contact tectonique et démontre que les nappes supérieures sont composées de trois différentes nappes, celle de la Gorge de Kemer, celle du Bakirli et celle Tahtali Dag. De plus, un bloc de calcaire dont la position tectonique demeure incertaine à la base des nappes supérieures a fourni pour la première fois deux associations viséennes de foraminifères et d'algues problématiques. La nappe de Tavas dans les nappes lyciennes (Turquie) est séparée en unités du Karadag, du Teke Dere, de Köycegiz et d'Haticeana. Comme pour les mélanges de Mersin, la nappe de Tavas est composite et inclut des unités appartenant à la Paléotéthys, à la Néotéthys et à Huglu-Pinde. L'unité du Karadag est une plateforme carbonatée de type Gondwana se développant du Dévonien supérieur au Trias supérieur. Elle appartient au domaine cimmérien du Taurus et formait la marge nord de la Néotéthys. L'unité du Teke Dere est composée de différentes écailles paléotéthysiennes et inclut des basaltes d'île océanique du Carbonifère supérieur, des basaltes de ride océanique du Carbonifère, une série siliciclastique du Carbonifère supérieur et un arc du Permien moyen. Les microfaunes et -flores trouvées à différents niveaux de la série du Teke Dere partagent de fortes affinités paléogéographiques avec les marges nord de la Paléotéthys. Des calcaires du Kubergandien en contact primaire au-dessus de la série siliciclastique a donné de riches microfaunes et -flores, également identifiées dans des galets remaniés dans la formation de Gevne du Trias supérieur de l'Aladag. L'évolution sédimentologique des séries de Köycegiz et d'Haticeana sont très similaires aux séries classiques du Pinde. Ces séquences prennent leur racine dans l'océan de Huglu-Pinde, le long de la marge passive nord anatolienne (profil turc) et de la marge de Sitia-Pinde (profil grec). Des conglomérats à la base de l'unité de Lentas au sud de la Crète (Grèce) ont donné des microfaunes et flores partageant également de fortes similitudes avec les bordures nord de la Paléotéthys. Le type de sédiments remaniés à la base d'unités de type Pinde suggère une dérivation depuis la marge active de la Paléotéthys. -Résumé grand public (non-specialized abstract) Au début du 20ème siècle, Alfred Wegener bouleverse les croyances géologiques de l'époque et publie plusieurs articles sur la dérive ou la translation des continents. En utilisant des arguments géographiques (similarités des lignes de côte), paléontologiques (faunes et flores similaires) et climatiques (dépôts tropicaux et glaciaires), Wegener explique qu'il y a plusieurs millions d'années, les terres émergées actuelles ne devaient former qu'un seul et grand continent. La fin du 20ème siècle verra l'avènement de la théorie de la tectonique des plaques suite à la reconnaissance du cycle de Wilson, des rides médio-océaniques, des anomalies magnétiques dans les océans et des sutures océaniques qui représentent les reliques d'océans disparus. Le Cycle de Wilson se caractérise par une suite d'évènements géologiques majeurs pouvant se résumer de la manière suivante : (1) séparation d'un craton continental en deux parties, créant une limite de plaque divergente. C'est ce que l'on appelle un rift; (2) développement et croissance d'un océan entre ces deux blocs. Des roches magmatiques remontent à la surface de la terre et forment une chaîne de montagne sous-marine que l'on appelle ride médio-océanique ou dorsale. L'océan continue de se développer, et des sédiments se déposent à sa surface formant la suite ophiolitique ou trinité de Steinmann; (3) après une phase d'expansion plus ou moins longue, les conditions imposées aux limites des plaques à la surface de la terre changent, et l'océan se met à se refermer par disparition progressive (subduction) de sa croûte océanique sous une croûte continentale par exemple. Ceci crée une nouvelle limite de plaque, convergente cette fois; (4) la subduction de la plaque océanique sous la plaque continentale provoque une remontée de magma formant des chaînes volcaniques à la surface de la Terre ; (5) une fois que la plaque océanique a complètement disparu, les deux blocs préalablement séparés par l'océan font collision, formant ainsi une chaîne de montagne. Les chaînes de montagnes sont de manière générale formées par un empilement plus ou moins complexe de nappes. C'est au coeur de certaines de ces nappes que se trouvent les vestiges de l'océan disparu. Un des objectifs de ce travail était la recherche de ces vestiges dans le domaine téthysien de la Méditerranée orientale. Pour ce faire, nous avons parcourus une grande partie du sud de la Turquie, nous sommes allés à Chypre, dans le Sultanat d'Oman, en Iran, en Crète, et nous avons visités quelques îles grecques du Dodécanèse. La région de la Méditerranée orientale est une zone qui a été tectoniquement très active, et qui continue de l'être de nos jours par des phénomènes de subduction (ex. les volcans de Santorin), et par des mouvements coulissants entre des plaques continentales (ex. la faille nord-anatolienne) qui donnent régulièrement lieu à des tremblements de terre. Pour le géologue, la complexité de ces zones d'étude réside dans le fait que les chaînes de montagne actuelles ne contiennent en général pas seulement les restes d'un océan, mais bien de plusieurs bassins océaniques qui se sont succédés dans l'espace et dans le temps. Les nappes qui se trouvent au sud de la Turquie et dans le Dodécanèse forment un important jalon dans la chaîne alpine qui s'étend depuis les Alpes jusque dans l'Himalaya. L'idée d'un continuum au coeur de ce système se basait principalement sur l'âge des océans et sur la reconnaissance de similarités dans l'évolution des séries sédimentaires. La localisation des vestiges de la Paléotéthys ainsi que l'identification des séries sédimentaires ayant appartenu à l'océan de HugluPinde repris sous forme de nappes en Turquie et en Grèce sont cruciales pour permettre de bonnes corrélations locales et régionales. La reconnaissance, la compréhension et l'interprétation de ces séries sédimentaires permettront d'élaborer un modèle d'évolution géodynamique régional, s'appuyant sur des faits de terrains indiscutables, et prenant en compte les contraintes globales que ce genre d'exercice implique.

Características geológicas y geotécnicas de los lodos de flotación de la Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Unión (SE España)

We present the results of a geological and geotechnical characterization of the metallurgic waste from the Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Union. We have studied eight tailings dams from which we collected and analysed 42 samples of metallurgic waste. We measured grainsize distribution, the specific gravity of solid particles, plasticity index, permeability, both in situ and in the laboratory, direct shear characteristicsand moisture content. According to size distribution the tailings can be classified as sandy silt. Their plasticity index ranges from medium to nil. The internal friction angle varies between 28 and 42 degrees. Cohesion is between 0 and 2.2 t/m2. The specific gravity of the solid particles ranges widely from 1.8 to 4 g/cm3. The saturated hydraulic conductivity values vary between 1.3x 10-5 and 3.2x 10-9 m/s.The water content measured in situ shows that the degree of saturation remains relatively high despite low rainfall and high evaporation rates. Several tailings dams have failed. The leading causes of tailings-dam failure are: 1) slope instability; 2) overflow; 3) erosion; and 4) subsidence or collapse. The main factor leading to dam failure is that the tailings stored in the ponds are highly saturated

A Miocene mud volcano and its plumbing system: A chaotic complex revisited (Monferrato, NW Italy)

Chaotic deposits are frequently reported in the geological literature and are commonly interpreted as olistostromes or tectonic melanges. A chaotic complex in the Cenozoic succession of Monferrato (NW Italy) consists of interbedded mud breccia and burrowed silty clays that are pierced by sheared mud breccias and embed carbonate-cemented blocks. These may be represented by microcrystalline limestones or strongly cemented matrix-supported breccias locally containing remains of chemosymbiotic organisms (lucinid bivalves). Moreover, cylindrical concretions, up to 15 cm in diameter and 1 m long, occur in the chaotic complex and crosscut bedding planes at high angles. The cement of all these lithified portions is mainly dolomite characterized by low delta(13)C values (from -10.3 to -23parts per thousand PDB) and delta(18)O values up to + 7parts per thousand PDB. The delta(13)C values testify to precipitation of carbonates induced by microbial oxidation of methane, whereas the markedly positive delta(18)C signature, ubiquitous in the cylindrical concretions, is the evidence for the presence and destabilization of gas hydrates. The studied section provides a well-exposed example of the geological record of the birth, life, and death of a mud volcano. Unsheared, soft mud breccias represent mud flows along the flanks of the volcano, whereas sheared mud breccias are the result of the injection of unconsolidated overpressured fine-grained sediments, both taking place during ``eruptive'' phases. They were followed by more quiet stages of hemipelagic sedimentation, burrowing, and CH4 seeping. The cylindrical concretions represent the first described ancient example of the chimneys observed in present-day mud-volcano settings. They are the remnants of a cold-seep plumbing network that crosscut the mud volcano edifice. The chimneys were the pathway for the expulsion toward the sea floor of gas- and sediment-charged fluids likely originated from destabilization of methane gas hydrates. The association of mud breccias and methane-derived carbonates may not be due to mass gravity flows but can be primary and, therefore, is a diagnostic criterion for recognizing chaotic deposits due to mud volcano activity in the geological record.

Hydrologic Simulations of the Maquoketa River Watershed Using SWAT Working Paper 09-WP 49,June 2009

This paper describes the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS). Climatic data from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gage station at the watershed outlet were used in the sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters as well as its calibration and validation for watershed hydrology and streamflow. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and base flow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters when applying SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model performance was evaluated by well-established statistical methods and was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic modeling analysis will facilitate future applications of SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analysis, including water quality.

Synorogenic extension: Quantitative constraints on the age and displacement of the Zanskar shear zone (northwest Himalaya)

subsequent extension-induced exhumation. Geochronological dating of various Structural, thermobarometric, and geochronological data place limits on the age and tectonic displacement along the Zanskar shear zone, a major north-dipping synorogenic extensional structure separating the high-grade metamorphic sequence of the High Himalayan Crystalline Sequence from the overlying low-grade sedimentary rocks of the Tethyan Himalaya, A complete Barrovian metamorphic succession, from kyanite to biotite zone mineral assemblages, occurs within the I-km-thick Zanskar shear zone. Thermobarometric data indicate a difference In equilibration depths of 12 +/- 3 km between the lower kyanite zone and the garnet zone, which is Interpreted as a minimum estimate for the finite vertical displacement accommodated by the Zanskar shear zone. For the present-day dip of the structure (20 degrees), a simple geometrical model shows that a net slip of 35 +/- 9 km is required to regroup these samples to the same structural level. Because the kyanite to garnet zone rocks represent only part of the Zanskar shear zone, and because its original dip may have been less than the present-day dip, these estimates fur the finite displacement represent minimum values. Field relations and petrographic data suggest that migmatization and associated leucogranite intrusion in the footwall of the Zanskar shear zone occurred as a continuous profess starting at the Barrovian metamorphic peak and lasting throughout the subsequent extension-induced exhumation. Geochronological dataing of various leucogranitic plutons and dikes in the Zanskar shear zone footwall indicates that the main ductile shearing along the structure ended by 19.8 Ma and that extension most likely initiated shortly before 22.2 Ma.

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 4, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 5, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 2, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 3, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 6, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

RAGBRAI Learn about the Land; Day 7, July 2010

The University of Iowa Office of the State Archaeologist and Team Archaeology are back on RAGBRAI for our third year of Archaeology on the Road, and pleased to partner this year with the IDNR: Geological and Water Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey under the theme “Human and Natural History Partners.” Archaeology on the Road brings you the unique cultural history and prehistory of Iowa on the RAGBRAI route, pointing out interesting and significant archaeological sites and sharing Iowa’s past along the way. Look for our booth at Expo and then again on Days 1, 5 and 6 on the route, and also keep an eye out for our Team Archaeology

Mesozoic sequence of Fuerteventura (Canary Islands): Witness of Early Jurassic sea-floor spreading in the central Atlantic

The Fuerteventura Jurassic sedimentary succession consists of oceanic and elastic deposits, the latter derived from the southwestern Moroccan continental margin. Normal mid-oceanic-ridge basalt (N-MORB) flows and breccias are found at the base of the sequence and witness sea-floor spreading events in the central Atlantic. These basalts were extruded in a postrift environment (post-late Pliensbachian), We propose a Toarcian age for the Atlantic oceanic floor in this region, on the basis of the presence higher up in the sequence of the Bositra buchi filament microfacies (Aalenian-Bajocian) and of elastic deposits reflecting tectono-eustatic events (e.g,, late Toarcian to mid-Callovian erosion of the rift shoulder). The S-l sea-floor oceanic magnetic anomaly west of Fuerteventura is therefore at least Toarcian in age. The remaining sequence records Atlantic-Tethyan basinal facies (e.g., Callovian-Oxfordian red clays, Aptian-Albian black shales) alternating with elastic deposits (e.g., Kimmeridgian-Berriasian periplatform calciturbidites and a Lower Cretaceous deep-sea fan system). The Fuerteventura N-MORB outcrops represent the only Early Jurassic oceanic basement described so far in the central Atlantic. They are covered by a 1600 m, nearly continuous sedimentary sequence which extends to Upper Cretaceous facies.

Precise U-Pb age constraints for end-Triassic mass extinction, its correlation to volcanism and Hettangian post-extinction recovery

New precise zircon U-Pb ages are proposed for the Triassic-Jurassic (Rhetian-Hettangian) and the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries, The ages were obtained by ID-TIMS dating of single chemical-abraded zircons from volcanic ash layers within the Pucara Group, Aramachay Formation in the Utcubamba valley, northern Peru. Ash layers situated between last and first occurrences of boundary-defining ammonites yielded Pb-206/U-238 ages of 201.58 +/- 0.17/0.28 Ma (95% c.l., uncertainties without/with decay constant errors, respectively) for the Triassic-Jurassic and of 199.53 +/- 0.19/0.29 Ma for the Hettangian-Sinemurian boundaries. The former is established on a tuff located 1 m above the last local occurrence of the topmost Triassic genus Choristoceras, and 5 m below the Hettangian genus Psiloceras. The latter sample was obtained from a tuff collected within the Badouxia canadensis beds. Our new ages document total duration of the Hettagian of no more than c. 2 m.y., which has fundamental implications for the interpretation and significance of the ammonite recovery after the topmost Triassic extinction. The U-Pb age is about 0.8 +/- 0.5% older than Ar-40-Ar-39 dates determined on flood basalts of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP). Given the widely accepted hypothesis that inaccuracies in the K-40 decay constants or physical constants create a similar bias between the two dating methods, our new U-Pb zircon age determination for the T/J boundary corroborates the hypothesis that the CAMP was emplaced at the same time and may be responsible for a major climatic turnover and mass extinction. The zircon Pb-206/U-238 age for the T/J boundary is marginally older than the North Mountain Basalt (Newark Supergroup, Nova Scotia, Canada), which has been dated at 201.27 +/- 0.06 Ma [Schoene et al., 2006. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70, 426-445]. It will be important to look for older eruptions of the CAMP and date them precisely by U-Pb techniques while addressing all sources of systematic uncertainty to further test the hypothesis of volcanic induced climate change leading to extinction. Such high-precision, high-accuracy data will be instrumental for constraining the contemporaneity of geological events at a 100 kyr level. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis, modelling and classification of geospatial data using machine learning

The research considers the problem of spatial data classification using machine learning algorithms: probabilistic neural networks (PNN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark model simple k-nearest neighbor algorithm is considered. PNN is a neural network reformulation of well known nonparametric principles of probability density modeling using kernel density estimator and Bayesian optimal or maximum a posteriori decision rules. PNN is well suited to problems where not only predictions but also quantification of accuracy and integration of prior information are necessary. An important property of PNN is that they can be easily used in decision support systems dealing with problems of automatic classification. Support vector machine is an implementation of the principles of statistical learning theory for the classification tasks. Recently they were successfully applied for different environmental topics: classification of soil types and hydro-geological units, optimization of monitoring networks, susceptibility mapping of natural hazards. In the present paper both simulated and real data case studies (low and high dimensional) are considered. The main attention is paid to the detection and learning of spatial patterns by the algorithms applied.

Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations