Simple Method to Evaluate and to Predict Flash Points of Organic Compounds

Flash points (T(FP)) of organic compounds are calculated from their flash point numbers, N(FP), with the relationship T(FP) = 23.369N(FP)(2/3) + 20.010N(FP)(1/3) + 31.901. In turn, the N(FP) values can be predicted from boiling point numbers (Y(BP)) and functional group counts with the equation N(FP) = 0.974Y(BP) + Sigma(i)n(i)G(i) + 0.095 where G(i) is a functional group-specific contribution to the value of N(FP) and n(i) is the number of such functional groups in the structure. For a data set consisting of 1000 diverse organic compounds, the average absolute deviation between reported and predicted flash points was less than 2.5 K.

Module property verification : A method to plan and perform quality verifications in modular architectures

Modular product architectures have generated numerous benefits for companies in terms of cost, lead-time and quality. The defined interfaces and the module’s properties decrease the effort to develop new product variants, and provide an opportunity to perform parallel tasks in design, manufacturing and assembly. The background of this thesis is that companies perform verifications (tests, inspections and controls) of products late, when most of the parts have been assembled. This extends the lead-time to delivery and ruins benefits from a modular product architecture; specifically when the verifications are extensive and the frequency of detected defects is high. Due to the number of product variants obtained from the modular product architecture, verifications must handle a wide range of equipment, instructions and goal values to ensure that high quality products can be delivered. As a result, the total benefits from a modular product architecture are difficult to achieve. This thesis describes a method for planning and performing verifications within a modular product architecture. The method supports companies by utilizing the defined modules for verifications already at module level, so called MPV (Module Property Verification). With MPV, defects are detected at an earlier point, compared to verification of a complete product, and the number of verifications is decreased. The MPV method is built up of three phases. In Phase A, candidate modules are evaluated on the basis of costs and lead-time of the verifications and the repair of defects. An MPV-index is obtained which quantifies the module and indicates if the module should be verified at product level or by MPV. In Phase B, the interface interaction between the modules is evaluated, as well as the distribution of properties among the modules. The purpose is to evaluate the extent to which supplementary verifications at product level is needed. Phase C supports a selection of the final verification strategy. The cost and lead-time for the supplementary verifications are considered together with the results from Phase A and B. The MPV method is based on a set of qualitative and quantitative measures and tools which provide an overview and support the achievement of cost and time efficient company specific verifications. A practical application in industry shows how the MPV method can be used, and the subsequent benefits

Modified Fixed Effects Estimation of Technical Inefficiency

We consider method of moment fixed effects (FE) estimation of technical inefficiency. When N, the number of cross sectional observations, is large it ispossible to obtain consistent central moments of the population distribution of the inefficiencies. It is well-known that the traditional FE estimator may be seriously upward biased when N is large and T, the number of time observations, is small. Based on the second central moment and a single parameter distributional assumption on the inefficiencies, we obtain unbiased technical inefficiencies in large N settings. The proposed methodology bridges traditional FE and maximum likelihood estimation – bias is reduced without the random effects assumption.

Predicting spatio-temporal distribution for eastern Australian birds using birds Australia's atlas data : survey method, habitat and seasonal effects

Faunal atlases are landscape-level survey collections that can be used for describing spatial and temporal patterns of distribution and densities. They can also serve as a basis for quantitative analysis of factors that may influence the distributions of species. We used a subset of Birds Australia’s Atlas of Australian Birds data (January 1998 to December 2002) to examine the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of 280 selected species in eastern Australia (17–37°S and 136–152°E). Using geographical information systems, this dataset was converted into point coverage and overlaid with a vegetation polygon layer and a half-degree grid. The exploratory data analysis involved calculating species-specific reporting rates spatially, per grid and per vegetation unit, and also temporally, by month and year. We found high spatio-temporal variability in the sampling effort. Using generalised linear models on unaggregated point data, the influences of four factors – survey method and month, geographical location and habitat type – were analysed for each species. When counts of point data were attributed to grid-cells, the total number of species correlated with the total number of surveys, while the number of records per species was highly variable. Surveys had high interannual location fidelity. The predictive values of each of the four factors were species-dependent. Location and habitat were correlated and highly predictive for species with restricted distribution and strong habitat preference. Month was only of importance for migratory species. The proportion of incidental sightings was important for extremely common or extremely rare species. In conclusion, behaviour of species differed sufficiently to require building a customized model for each species to predict distribution. Simple models were effective for habitat specialists with restricted ranges, but for generalists with wide distributions even complex models gave poor predictions.

Second person : a point of view? The function of the second person pronoun in narrative prose fiction

This thesis looks at the functions and effects of the ‘second-person’ pronoun in narrative prose fiction, with particular focus on the fluidity and ambiguity of the mode that I will call Protean-'you.' It is a mode in which it is unclear whether the ‘you’ is a character, the narrator, a reader/narratee, or no-one in particular—or a combination of these—so that readers find ‘second-person’ utterances at once familiar and deeply strange. I regard the ‘second person’ as a special case of narrative ‘person’ that, at its most fluid, can produce an experience of reading quite unlike that of reading traditional ‘first-‘ and ‘third-person’ narrative. Essentially, this unique experience comes about because Protean-‘you’ neglects to constitute the stable modes of subjectivity that readers expect to find within narrative textuality. These stable modes of subjectivity, modelled on what I will refer to as Cartesianism’s hegemonic notion of the self, have been thoroughly formalised and naturalised within the practices of ‘first-‘ and ‘third-person’ narrative. The Protean-‘you’ form of ‘second-person’ narrative, conversely, is a mode of narrative discourse that puts readers in a place of doubt and uncertainty, its unsettling equivocations forcefully disrupting accustomed, mimetic explanations of narrative and denying us access to the foundational, authorising subject of classical Cartesian thought. Rather than founding a notion of ‘second-person’ narrative and narrative ‘person’ generally on Cartesianism's ‘self-ish’ logic of unified, privatised identity, I turn to C.S, Peirce's notion of the semiotic self and to developments in post-structuralist thought. Essentially, the conception of subjectivity underpinning my arguments is Peirce's proposition that the self is to be conceived of not as a cogito, but as a sign by which the conscious entity knows itself. It is a sign, moreover, that is constantly being re-read, reinterpreted, so that identity is never self-complete. This reconception of subjectivity is necessary because 1 will argue that the effects of Protean-‘you’ arise in some part from a tension between Cartesianism's hegemony and what philosophical pragmatism and post-structuralism glimpse as the actual condition of the human subject—the subject as dispersed and contingent rather than unified and authoritative. Most discussions of ‘second-person’ narrative conceive of the mode in terms of implicit communicative relations, in some measure instituting Cartesianism's notion of the intentionalist self at the centre of literary meaning. I contrast the paradigmatic address model that arises from this conception against a model that approaches the analysis of ‘second-person’ narrative modality in terms of a referential function, that is, in terms of the object or objects referred to deictically by the ‘second-person’ pronoun. Two principal functions of ‘second-person’ textuality are identified and discussed at length. The first is generalisation, which is rarely dissipated altogether, a situation that contributes to the ambiguities of the pronoun's reference in much ‘second-person’ fiction. The second principal function is that of address, that is, the allocutionary function. Clearly, although stories that continually refer to a ‘you’ can seem quite baffling and unnatural, not all ‘second-person’ narratives unsettle the reader. In order to make the ‘second person's’ outlandish narratives knowable and stable, we bring to bear on them in our habits of reading whatever hermeneutic frames, whatever interpretive keys, come to hand, including a large number of unexceptional forms of literary and ‘natural’ discourse that employ the ‘second-person’ pronoun. These forms include letter writing and internal dialogue (i.e., talking to one's self), the language of the courtroom, the travelogue, the maxim, and so on. In looking at the ways in which the radicalising potentials of ‘second-person’ discourse are contained or recuperated, I focus on issues of vraisemblance and mimesis. Vraisemblance can be described as the ‘system of conventions and expectations which rests on/reinforces that more general system of ‘mutual knowledge’ produced within a community for the realisation and maintenance of a whole social world’. All of the forms of the vraisemblable are already instituted within social, cultural relations, so that what vraisemblance describes is the way we fit the inscriptions we read-that is, the way in which we naturalise what we read-into those given cultural and social forms. I also look at the conventionalising and naturalising work done by notions of mimesis in explaining relations between the world, our being in it, and texts, proposing that mimesis provides a principle buttress by which the good standing of the metaphor of ‘person’ is preserved in traditional and pre-critical modes of analysis. Indeed, the critic’s recourse to ‘person’ is in some measure always an engagement with mimesis. Any discussion that maintains that mimesis is in some way productive of meaning-which this thesis in fact does-must identify mimesis as a merely conventional category within practices of reading and semiosis more generally, and at the very least remove that term from its traditional position of transparent primacy and authority. Some of the most interesting and insightful arguments about ‘second-person’ narrative propose that the ‘second person’s’ most striking effects derive from the constitution of an ‘intersubjective’ experience of reading in which the subject positions of the ‘you’-protagonist, reader-narratee and narrator are combined into a fluid and indeterminate multiple subjectivity. Notions of intersubjectivity frequently position themselves as liberating the reader from Cartesianism's fixed, authoritative modes of subjectivity, Frequently, however, they tend implicitly to reinstate Cartesianism's notion of the self at the centre of textual practice and subjectivity. I look at Daniel Gunn's novel ‘Almost You’, at length in this context, illustrating the constant overdetermination of the ‘you’ and the novel's narrating voice, and demonstrating that this overdetermination leaves the origin of the narrative discourse, the identity of the narrator, and the ontological nature of both principal protagonists utterly ambiguous. The fluidity and ambiguity of Protean-‘you’ in ‘Almost You’ is discussed in terms of ‘second-person’ intersubjectivity, but with a view to demonstrating the indebtedness by the notion of intersubjectivity to Cartesianism's hegemony of ‘person’. I then turn to a discussion of what might be a more ‘old fashioned’ if perhaps ultimately more far-reaching approach to the ‘second person’s’ often startling ambiguities. This is Keats's notion of negative capability, a capacity or quality in which a person ‘is capable of being in uncertainties, Mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason.’ I suggest that Protean-‘you’ texts will license all of the readings of ambiguity and fluidity proposed in my discussion of ‘Almost You’, but conclude that the instances of indeterminacy illustrate no more than that: the fluidity and deep ambiguity, and thus, finally, the lack of coherence, of Protean-‘you’ discourse. This has particular implications for how we are to consider readers’ experiences of narrative texts. More fundamentally, it has implications for how we are to consider readers as subjects. I suggest that unstable, ambiguous instances of ‘second-person’ narrative can tear the complex and systematic embroidery of ideological suture that unifies Cretinism’s experience or sense of subjectivity, leaving the reader in a condition of epistemological and ontological havoc. I go on to argue that much of the deeply unsettling effect of Protean-‘you’ discourse anises because its utterances explicitly gesture towards Cretinism’s notion of self. Protean-‘you’ involves a sense of address that is much more pronounced than we are accustomed to facing when reading literary narrative, alerting us to the presence of inscribed anthropomorphic subjects. At the very same time, protean-‘you’ leaves its inscribed subjects indeterminate, ambiguous. This conflict generates a tension between the anticipation of the emergence of speaking and listening selves and our inability to find them. I go on to propose that Protean-‘you’ narrative's lack of coherence is also to be understood as the condition of narrative actuality generally, but a condition that is vigorously mediated against by dominant practices of reading and writing, hocusing my discussion in this respect on the issue of narrative ‘person,’ I argue that narrative ‘person’ is constituted within texts as an apparent unity, but that it is in fact, produced as unitary solely within the practice of making sense, that is, Within our habits of reading, and so is never finally unified. I propose that this is the case for ‘first-‘ and ‘third-person’ modes no less than for the ‘second.’ Where ‘second-person’ narrative at its most radical and Protean differs from conventional ‘first-‘ and ‘third-person’ narratives is the degree to which each has been circumscribed by practices of tantalization, containment and limit, and, in particular, Cretinism’s hegemony of ‘person.’ It may be that the most significant insights ‘second-person’ narrative has to offer are to be found within its capacity to reveal to the engaged reader the underlying condition of narrative discourse, and more generally, its capacity to reveal the actual condition of the human subject-a condition in which, exactly like its textual corollary of narrative ‘person,’ the self is glimpsed as thoroughly dispersed and contingent.

Sequential fixed-width confidence bands for kernel regression estimation

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed (iid) pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths.

The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedure together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confidence bands based on the local linear estimator have the best performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Sample size determination for kernel regression estimation using sequential fixed-width confidence bands

We consider a random design model based on independent and identically distributed pairs of observations (Xi, Yi), where the regression function m(x) is given by m(x) = E(Yi|Xi = x) with one independent variable. In a nonparametric setting the aim is to produce a reasonable approximation to the unknown function m(x) when we have no precise information about the form of the true density, f(x) of X. We describe an estimation procedure of non-parametric regression model at a given point by some appropriately constructed fixed-width (2d) confidence interval with the confidence coefficient of at least 1−. Here, d(> 0) and 2 (0, 1) are two preassigned values. Fixed-width confidence intervals are developed using both Nadaraya-Watson and local linear kernel estimators of nonparametric regression with data-driven bandwidths. The sample size was optimized using the purely and two-stage sequential procedures together with asymptotic properties of the Nadaraya-Watson and local linear estimators. A large scale simulation study was performed to compare their coverage accuracy. The numerical results indicate that the confi dence bands based on the local linear estimator have the better performance than those constructed by using Nadaraya-Watson estimator. However both estimators are shown to have asymptotically correct coverage properties.

Testing the influence of survey method for building species distribution models of marine fishes

Accurate estimates of fish species occurrence are important to any species’ assessments and habitat suitability model. However, surveys of marine fishes are often biased by method. Surveys of marine fishes are often biased by method. Such bias could influence the interpretation of any habitat suitability model. With increasing emphasis on non-destructive sampling, underwater video techniques are commonly used without a thorough understanding of their advantages and disadvantages. This study compared data collected from baited remote underwater stereo-video systems and towed-video systems to provide occurrence data to develop habitat suitability models of nine temperate marine fishes. While numerous studies have compared modelling approaches in terms of model performance (i.e. via AUC or Kappa) the point of this paper was to highlight how very sensiblelooking, well-performing (based on AUC) models can provide different predictions of habitat suitability depending on which dataset is used.

The effects of method variance within measures

Despite concern about method variance between measures as a bias in survey research, scholars have overlooked or ignored the effects of method variance within measures (i.e., covariation among items from the same scale that may be attributed to the method of measurement employed). Not only do few commonly used survey instruments reflect efforts to control for method variance, but guides to scale construction encourage researchers to implement strategies that enhance the effects of method variance within measures. In this article, we have argued that when method variance inflates relationships between questionnaire items, traditional psychometric indices overestimate the amount of true or construct variance that scales capture. Implications for survey research that uses fixed alternative questionnaire measures are delineated.

Recommendations for a trans-European dietary assessment method in children between 4 and 14 years

Background/Objectives: The main objective of European Food Consumption Validation (EFCOVAL)-child Project is to define and evaluate a trans-European methodology for undertaking national representative dietary surveys among children in the age group of 4–14 years. In the process of identifying the best dietary assessment methodologies, experts were brought together at a workshop. The paper presents the discussion of the best available method and the final recommendations for a trans-European dietary assessment method among 4- to 14-year-old children.
Subjects/Methods: The starting point was to investigate whether the method (two non-consecutive 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDRs)) suggested for the adults in European Food Consumption Survey Method (EFCOSUM) would be usable for children in
the age group between 4 and 14 years. However, all available dietary assessment methods were included in the discussion to ensure that the final recommendation would be based on the best evidence. Six criteria were defined and used as additional
guidance in the process.
Results: The literature does not give a clear recommendation on the dietary assessment methods that are most suitable for children in the age group of 4–14 years. Nevertheless, on the basis of the literature, the recommendations were separated for preschoolers (4–6 years) and schoolchildren (7–14 years).
Conclusion: For preschoolers, two non-consecutive days of a structured food record are recommended, using a (for children adapted) picture booklet and household measures for portion-size estimation. For schoolchildren, repeated 24-HDRs are recommended, using a picture booklet and household measures for portion-size estimation. In addition, the child should bring a booklet to register what is eaten out of home. One parent should assist the schoolchild at the 24-HDR interview, and therefore face-to-face interviews are required.

Is point of care testing for anaemia (HB) and microalbumin feasible in people with type 2 diabetes attending diabetes outpatient clinics?

Introduction: Diabetes is the major cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Australia. Anaemia of CKD occurs earlier than in non-diabetics and is often insidious and undetected.

Aim: A large, prospective, single-centre study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of point of care testing (POCT) haemoglobin (Hb) and microalbumin in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) attending routine outpatient clinic appointments (OPC).

Method: Clinic nurses measured Hb and microalbumin using the HemoCue Haemoglobin Capillary Analyser and the HemoCue Urine Albumin Analyser (Medipac Scientific), respectively when they tested blood glucose, weight and blood pressure. The nurses were trained to use the analysers before the study commenced. Standard demographic data, duration of diabetes, treatment mode, and presence of complications, comorbidities, and HbA1c were ascertained from patients’ medical records.

Results: Five hundred and fifty-four (80%) patients were screened. The nurses were able to perform the tests competently but testing, especially microalbumin, was time-consuming. Patients’ mean age was 62 years (11 SD): 230 females, mean blood glucose (BG) 10 (3.9 SD) mmol/L, mean haemoglobin 127.2 (16.3 SD) g/L; mean microalbumin 47.8 (58.7 SD) mg/L: 324 were males, mean BG 10.2 (3.9 SD) mmol/L, mean Hb 138.6 (18.8 SD) gm/L, and mean microalbumin 67.9 (73.9 SD) mg/L. 27% of males and 22% of females were anaemic. Of those with anaemia, 27% of females and 29% of males had microalbuminuria.

Conclusions: POCT is feasible in routine outpatient clinics but is time-consuming. One in four T2DM attending OPC were anaemic. POCT Hb testing in OPC is feasible and could identify T2DM who need full haematological assessment.

SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

Identification of nonlinear fMRI models using Auxiliary Particle Filter and kernel smoothing method

Hemodynamic models have a high potential in application to understanding the functional differences of the brain. However, full system identification with respect to model fitting to actual functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is practically difficult and is still an active area of research. We present a simulation based Bayesian approach for nonlinear model based analysis of the fMRI data. The idea is to do a joint state and parameter estimation within a general filtering framework. One advantage of using Bayesian methods is that they provide a complete description of the posterior distribution, not just a single point estimate. We use an Auxiliary Particle Filter adjoined with a kernel smoothing approach to address this joint estimation problem.