985 resultados para failure rates


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Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

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BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

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Objective: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries (BSI) is nowadays considered the standard treatment. The study aimed to determine the criteria applied for NOM and to identify risk factors for its failure. Methods: Review of all adult patients with BSI treated at the University Hospital Bern, Switzerland, between 2000 and 2008. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70·9%) with a mean age of 38·2 ± 19·1 years and an Injury Severity Score of 30·9 ± 11·6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n=43 (20·9%); grade II, n=52 (25·2%); grade III, n=60 (29·1%); grade IV, n=42 (20·4%) and grade V, n=9 (4·4%). 47 patients (22·8%) required immediate surgery. Five or more units of red cell transfusions (P<0·001), Glasgow Coma Scale<11 (P=0·009) and age ≥55 years (P=0·038) were associated with primary operative management (OM). 159 patients (77·2%) qualified for NOM, which was successful in 89·9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate was 69·4% (143/206). Multivariate analysis found age ≥40 years to be the only factor independently related to the failure of NOM (P=0·001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate ofNOM in patients with BSI.

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BACKGROUND: As a consequence of the increase in life expectancy, hepatobiliary surgeons have to deal with an emerging aged population. We aimed to analyze the liver function and outcome after right hepatectomy (RH) in patients over 70 years of age. METHODS: From January 2006 to December 2009, we prospectively collected data of 207 consecutive elective hepatectomies. In patients who had RH, cardiac risk was assessed by a dedicated preoperative workup. Liver failure (LF) was defined by the "fifty-fifty" criteria at postoperative day 5 (POD) and morbidity by the Clavien-Dindo classification. Liver function tests (LFTs) and short-term outcome were retrospectively analyzed in patients over (elderly group, EG) and younger (young group, YG) than 70 years of age. RESULTS: Eighty-seven consecutive RH were performed during the study period. Indication for surgery included 90 % malignancy in 47 % of patients requiring preoperative chemotherapy. ASA grade > 2 (44 vs. 16 %, p = 0.027), ischemic heart disease (17 vs. 5 %, p = 0.076), and preoperative cardiac failure (26 vs. 2 %, p < 0.001) were more frequent in the EG (n = 23) than in the YG (n = 64). Both groups were similar regarding rates of normal liver parenchyma, chemotherapy and intraoperative parameters. The overall morbidity rates were comparable, but the serious complication (grades III-V) rate was relatively higher in the EG (39 vs. 25 %, p = 0.199), particularly in patients with diabetes mellitus (100 vs. 29 %, p = 0.04) and those who had additional nonhepatic surgery (67 vs. 35 %, p = 0.110) and transfusions (44 vs. 30 %, p = 0.523). The 90-day mortality rate was similar (9 % in the EG vs. 3 % in the YG, p = 0.28) and was related to heart failure in the EG. LFTs showed a similar trend from POD 1 to 8, and patients ≥70 years of age had no liver failure. CONCLUSIONS: Age ≥70 years alone is not a contraindication to RH. However, major morbidity is particularly higher in the elderly with diabetes. This high-risk group should be closely monitored in the postoperative course. Liver function is not altered in the elderly patient after RH.

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Elevated serum ferritin levels may reflect a systemic inflammatory state as well as increased iron storage, both of which may contribute to an unfavorable outcome of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We therefore performed a comprehensive analysis of the role of serum ferritin and its genetic determinants in the pathogenesis and treatment of CHC. To this end, serum ferritin levels at baseline of therapy with pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin or before biopsy were correlated with clinical and histological features of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, including necroinflammatory activity (N = 970), fibrosis (N = 980), steatosis (N = 886), and response to treatment (N = 876). The association between high serum ferritin levels (> median) and the endpoints was assessed by logistic regression. Moreover, a candidate gene as well as a genome-wide association study of serum ferritin were performed. We found that serum ferritin ≥ the sex-specific median was one of the strongest pretreatment predictors of treatment failure (univariate P < 0.0001, odds ratio [OR] = 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34-0.60). This association remained highly significant in a multivariate analysis (P = 0.0002, OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.20-0.61), with an OR comparable to that of interleukin (IL)28B genotype. When patients with the unfavorable IL28B genotypes were stratified according to high versus low ferritin levels, SVR rates differed by > 30% in both HCV genotype 1- and genotype 3-infected patients (P < 0.001). Serum ferritin levels were also independently associated with severe liver fibrosis (P < 0.0001, OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.68-4.25) and steatosis (P = 0.002, OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.35-3.91), but not with necroinflammatory activity (P = 0.3). Genetic variations had only a limited impact on serum ferritin levels. Conclusion: In patients with CHC, elevated serum ferritin levels are independently associated with advanced liver fibrosis, hepatic steatosis, and poor response to interferon-alpha-based therapy.

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The treatment of craniocervical instability caused by diverse conditions remains challenging. Different techniques have been described to stabilize the craniocervical junction. The authors present 2 cases in which tumoral destruction of the C-1 lateral mass caused craniocervical instability. A one-stage occipitoaxial spinal interarticular stabilization (OASIS) technique with titanium cages and posterior occipitocervical instrumentation was used to reconstruct the C-1 lateral mass and stabilize the craniocervical junction. The ipsilateral vertebral artery was preserved. The OASIS technique offers single-stage tumor resection, C-1 lateral mass reconstruction, and stabilization with a loadsharing construct. It could be an option in the treatment of select cases of C-1 lateral mass failure.

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Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with reduced CRC mortality, but low screening rates have been reported in several settings. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of low CRC screening in Switzerland. A retrospective cohort of a random sample of 940 patients aged 50-80 years followed for 2 years from four Swiss University primary care settings was used. Patients with illegal residency status and a history of CRC or colorectal polyps were excluded. We abstracted sociodemographic data of patients and physicians, patient health status, and indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools from medical charts. We defined CRC screening as colonoscopy in the last 10 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy in the last 5 years, or fecal occult blood testing in the last 2 years. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of 940 patients (mean age 63.9 years, 42.7% women), 316 (33.6%) had undergone CRC screening. In multivariate analysis, birthplace in a country outside of Western Europe and North America [odds ratio (OR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.97], male sex of the physician in charge (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91), BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m (OR 0.66, CI 0.46-0.96) and at least 30.0 kg/m (OR 0.61, CI 0.40-0.90) were associated with lower CRC screening rates. Obesity, overweight, birthplace outside of Western Europe and North America, and male sex of the physician in charge were associated with lower CRC screening rates in Swiss University primary care settings. Physician perception of obesity and its impact on their recommendation for CRC screening might be a target for further research.

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Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

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Genotypic and phenotypic tolerance was studied in penicillin treatment of experimental endocarditis due to nontolerant and tolerant Streptococcus gordonii and to their backcross transformants. The organisms were matched for in vitro and in vivo growth rates. Rats with aortic endocarditis were treated for 3 or 5 days, starting 12, 24, or 48 h after inoculation. When started at 12 h, during fast intravegetation growth, 3 days of treatment cured 80% of the nontolerant parent compared with &lt;30% of the tolerant derivative (P &lt; .005). When started at 24 or 48 h and if intravegetation growth had reached a plateau, 3 days of treatment failed against both bacteria. However, a significant difference between the 2 organisms was restored when treatment was extended to 5 days. Thus, genotypic tolerance conferred a survival advantage in both fast- and slow-growing bacteria, demonstrating that the in vitro-defined tolerant phenotype also carried the risk of treatment failure in vivo.

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The pathophysiological role of an increase in circulating vasopressin in sustaining global and regional vasoconstriction in patients with congestive heart failure has not been established, particularly in patients with hyponatraemia. To assess this further, 20 patients with congestive heart failure refractory to digoxin and diuretics were studied before and 60 minutes after the intravenous injection (5 micrograms/kg) of the vascular antagonist of vasopressin [1(beta-mercapto-beta,beta-cyclopentamethylene-propionic acid), 2-(0-methyl) tyrosine] arginine vasopressin. Ten patients were hyponatraemic (plasma sodium less than 135 mmol/l) and 10 were normonatraemic. In both groups of patients the vascular vasopressin antagonist did not alter systemic or pulmonary artery pressures, right atrial pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index, or vascular resistances. Furthermore, there was no change in skin and hepatic blood flow in either group after the injection of the vascular antagonist. Only one patient in the hyponatraemic group showed considerable haemodynamic improvement. He had severe congestive heart failure and a high concentration of plasma vasopressin (51 pmol/l). Plasma renin activity, vasopressin, or catecholamine concentrations were not significantly changed in response to the administration of the vasopressin antagonist in either the hyponatraemic or the normonatraemic groups. Patients with hyponatraemia, however, had higher baseline plasma catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary pressure and resistance, and lower hepatic blood flow than patients without hyponatraemia. Plasma vasopressin and plasma renin activity were slightly, though not significantly, higher in the hyponatraemic group. Thus the role of vasopressin in sustaining regional or global vasoconstriction seems limited in patients with congestive heart failure whether or not concomitant hyponatraemia is present. Vasopressin significantly increases the vascular tone only in rare patients with severe congestive heart failure and considerably increased vasopressin concentrations. Patients with hyponatraemia do, however, have raised baseline catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary arterial pressure and resistance, and decreased hepatic blood flow.

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This study evaluated the acceptability, ceiling/floor effects, and the reliability of the instrument for measuring the Impact of the Disease on the Daily Life of Patients with Valvular Disease (IDCV) when applied to 135 patients with heart failure (HF). Acceptability was evaluated by the percentage of unanswered items and by the proportion of patients who responded to all items; the ceiling/floor effects by the percentage of patients who scored in the top of 10% best and worst results of the scale, respectively. Reliability was estimated by internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) and stability of the measure (intraclass correlation coefficient - ICC). All patients responded to all items. Ceiling/floor effects evidenced were of moderate magnitude. The Cronbach's alpha was satisfactory for the majority of the domains and ICC> 0.90 in all the domains. The IDCV proved to be an easy to understand questionnaire, with evidence of reliability in patients with HF.

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A successful bone tissue engineering strategy entails producing bone-scaffold constructs with adequate mechanical properties. Apart from the mechanical properties of the scaffold itself, the forming bone inside the scaffold also adds to the strength of the construct. In this study, we investigated the role of in vivo cyclic loading on mechanical properties of a bone scaffold. We implanted PLA/β-TCP scaffolds in the distal femur of six rats, applied external cyclic loading on the right leg, and kept the left leg as a control. We monitored bone formation at 7 time points over 35 weeks using time-lapsed micro-computed tomography (CT) imaging. The images were then used to construct micro-finite element models of bone-scaffold constructs, with which we estimated the stiffness for each sample at all time points. We found that loading increased the stiffness by 60% at 35 weeks. The increase of stiffness was correlated to an increase in bone volume fraction of 18% in the loaded scaffold compared to control scaffold. These changes in volume fraction and related stiffness in the bone scaffold are regulated by two independent processes, bone formation and bone resorption. Using time-lapsed micro-CT imaging and a newly-developed longitudinal image registration technique, we observed that mechanical stimulation increases the bone formation rate during 4-10 weeks, and decreases the bone resorption rate during 9-18 weeks post-operatively. For the first time, we report that in vivo cyclic loading increases mechanical properties of the scaffold by increasing the bone formation rate and decreasing the bone resorption rate.

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This study aimed at assessing beliefs about the benefits and barriers to adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema in patients with heart failure, and the influence of demographic and clinical variables on those beliefs. 105 patients were interviewed. The mean of the subscales Benefits and Barriers were 20.2 (± 5.7) and 30.1 (±7.1), respectively. Patients perceived that adherence to daily self-monitoring of weight/edema could keep them healthy, improve their quality of life and decrease the chances of readmission. Approximately half of patients (46.7%) reported forgetting this measure. Those who controlled weight once a month were more likely to have barriers to adherence (OR= 6.6; IC 95% 1.9-13.8; p=0.01), showing this measure to be the main factor related to perceived barriers. Education in health can contribute with the development of strategies aimed at lowering barriers and increasing benefits of this control.

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SUMMARY: Reluctance has been expressed about treating chronic hepatitis C in active intravenous (IV) drug users (IDUs), and this is found in both international guidelines and routine clinical practice. However, the medical literature provides no evidence for an unequivocal treatment deferral of this risk group. We retrospectively analyzed the direct effect of IV drug use on treatment outcome in 500 chronic hepatitis C patients enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study. Patients were eligible for the study if they had their serum hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA tested 6 months after the end of treatment and at least one visit during the antiviral therapy, documenting the drug use status. Five hundred patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria (199 were IDU and 301 controls). A minimum exposure to 80% of the scheduled cumulative dose of antivirals was reached in 66.0% of IDU and 60.5% of controls (P = NS). The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 63.6%. Active IDU reached a SVR of 69.3%, statistically not significantly different from controls (59.8%). A multivariate analysis for treatment success showed no significant negative influence of active IV drug use. In conclusion, our study shows no relevant direct influence of IV drugs on the efficacy of anti-HCV therapy among adherent patients.