The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.

Genetic parameters and variability in physic nut accessions during early developmental stages

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic parameters and variability among accessions (half-sib families) of physic nut (Jatropha curcas) during the early stages of development. For this study, 110 accessions in the first year of development of the physic nut germplasm bank, maintained at Embrapa Cerrados, DF, Brazil, were evaluated in situ. The experiment was established in a randomized complete block design, with two replicates and five plants per plot arranged in rows at 4x2 m spacing. Grain yield, total number of branches per plant, plant height, stem diameter, canopy projection on the row, canopy projection between rows, canopy volume, number of days until first flowering and height of the first inflorescence were evaluated. Estimates of vegetative genetic parameters showed the existence of genetic variability in the physic nut germplasm bank. Physic nut accessions of the germplasm bank were grouped into five similarity groups based on character divergence. Although preliminary, the obtained results are promising for showing potential for Jatropha improvement with selective efficiency.

Estimated Traffic and Vehicle-Miles of Travel on Iowa's Proposed Interstate System 1956-1975

Data tables describing the length and vehicle-miles of travel on Iowa's 1975 proposed interstate system, broken down by interstate. No text is available.

Factors associated with 56-day non-return rate in dairy cattle

The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

Outcrossing rate between 'Haden' and 'Tommy Atkins' mangoes estimated using microsatellite and AFLP markers

The objective of this work was to estimate outcrossing rates between Haden and Tommy Atkins mango cultivars, using AFLP and microsatellite markers. Progenies of an isolated 'Haden' plant, identified in a 'Tommy Atkins' commercial orchard, in Petrolina, PE, Brazil, were analyzed. Total DNA was isolated from the progeny leaves and used for AFLP and microsatellite reactions. Multilocus outcrossing rates (t m) were estimated by direct count of AFLP or microsatellite markers and by the mLTR software. Outcrossing rates ranged from 0.85 to 0.87 with the analysis based on seven AFLP markers, and from 0.83 to 0.91 based on three microsatellite primers. No unexpected band patterns were observed for 'Haden' and 'Tommy Atkins'. The estimates obtained with the mLTR software were close to those obtained by direct AFLP and microsatellite allele counting, which indicates that the multilocus model was appropriate for this kind of study. The microsatellites mMiCIR005, mMiCIR030, and mMiCIR036 can be used to elucidate the origin of 'Haden' and 'Tommy Atkins' seedlings.

Temporal trends in chemical parameters of upland forest soils in southern Finland

Abstract

Correlation of Locally-Based Performance of Asphalts with Their Physicochemical Parameters, Progress Report 2, HR-298, 1989

This project was undertaken to study the relationships between the performance of locally available asphalts and their physicochemical properties under Iowa conditions with the ultimate objective of development of a locally and performance-based asphalt specification for durable pavements. Physical and physicochemical tests were performed on three sets of asphalt samples including: (a) twelve samples from local asphalt suppliers and their TFOT residues, (b) six core samples of known service records, and (c) a total of 79 asphalts from 10 pavement projects including original, lab aged and recovered asphalts from field mixes, as well as from lab aged mixes. Tests included standard rheological tests, HP-GPC and TMA. Some specific viscoelastic tests (at 5 deg C) were run on b samples and on some a samples. DSC and X-ray diffraction studies were performed on a and b samples. Furthermore, NMR techniques were applied to some a, b and c samples. Efforts were made to identify physicochemical properties which are correlated to physical properties known to affect field performance. The significant physicochemical parameters were used as a basis for an improved performance-based trial specification for Iowa to ensure more durable pavements.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

The kinetic parameters and energy cost of the Hsp70 chaperone as a polypeptide unfoldase.

Hsp70-Hsp40-NEF and possibly Hsp100 are the only known molecular chaperones that can use the energy of ATP to convert stably pre-aggregated polypeptides into natively refolded proteins. However, the kinetic parameters and ATP costs have remained elusive because refolding reactions have only been successful with a molar excess of chaperones over their polypeptide substrates. Here we describe a stable, misfolded luciferase species that can be efficiently renatured by substoichiometric amounts of bacterial Hsp70-Hsp40-NEF. The reactivation rates increased with substrate concentration and followed saturation kinetics, thus allowing the determination of apparent V(max)' and K(m)' values for a chaperone-mediated renaturation reaction for the first time. Under the in vitro conditions used, one Hsp70 molecule consumed five ATPs to effectively unfold a single misfolded protein into an intermediate that, upon chaperone dissociation, spontaneously refolded to the native state, a process with an ATP cost a thousand times lower than expected for protein degradation and resynthesis.

Genetic variability of rice recurrent selection populations as affected by male sterility or manual recombination

The objective of this work was to determine the effect of male sterility or manual recombination on genetic variability of rice recurrent selection populations. The populations CNA-IRAT 4, with a gene for male sterility, and CNA 12, which was manually recombined, were evaluated. Genetic variability among selection cycles was estimated using14 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers. A total of 926 plants were analyzed, including ten genitors and 180 individuals from each of the evaluated cycles (1, 2 and 5) of the population CNA-IRAT 4, and 16 genitors and 180 individuals from each of the cycles (1 and 2) of CNA 12. The analysis allowed the identification of alleles not present among the genitors for both populations, in all cycles, especially for the CNA-IRAT 4 population. These alleles resulted from unwanted fertilization with genotypes that were not originally part of the populations. The parameters of Wright's F-statistic (F IS and F IT) indicated that the manual recombination expands the genetic variability of the CNA 12 population, whereas male sterility reduces the one of CNA-IRAT 4.

Obesity markers and estimated 10 year fatal cardiovascular risk in Switzerland

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of obesity markers to detect high (>5%) 10- year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) as estimated using the SCORE function. Methods: Cross-sectional study including 3,047 women and 2,689 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Body fat percentage was assessed by tetrapolar bioimpedance. CVD risk was assessed using the SCORE risk function and gender and age-specific cut points for body fat were derived. The diagnostic accuracy of each obesity marker was evaluated through receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. Results: Body fat presented a higher correlation with 10-year CVD risk than waist/hip ratio (WHR), waist or BMI: in men, r=0.31, 0.22, 0.19 and 0.12 and for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively; the corresponding values in women were 0.18, 0.15, 0.11 and 0.05, respectively (all p<0.05). In both genders, body fat showed the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC): in men, the AUC (and 95% confidence interval) were 76.0 (73.8 - 78.2), 67.3 (64.6 - 69.9), 65.8 (63.1 - 68.5) and 60.6 (57.9 - 63.5) for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively. In women, the corresponding values were 72.3 (69.2 - 75.3), 66.6 (63.1 - 70.2), 64.1 (60.6 - 67.6) and 58.8 (55.2 - 62.4). The use of body fat percentage criterion enabled to capture three times more subjects with high CVD risk than BMI criterion, and almost twice as much as WHR criterion.. Conclusions: Obesity defined by body fat percentage is more accurate to detect high 10-year risk of fatal CVD than obesity markers based on WHR, waist or BMI.

Genetic diversity of irrigated barley based on molecular and quantitative data and on malting quality

The objective of this work was to quantify the genetic diversity of elite genotypes of irrigated barley in the Brazilian savanna. Thirty elite barley genotypes from Embrapa Cerrados' collection were evaluated using 160 RAPD markers, 12 agronomic traits related to yield components, and 10 malting quality parameters. The genetic dissimilarity matrices based on molecular markers, quantitative traits, and malting quality characters were calculated and a cluster analysis was performed using the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean (UPGMA) as grouping criterion. High genetic diversity among accessions were observed. The estimated genetic dissimilarities were weakly correlated, showing the complementarity of the different character groups. Selection indices and graphical dispersion analysis allowed the selection of promising genotypes and the indication of suitable crosses for maximizing the heterotic effects in breeding programs for irrigated barley in the Brazilian savanna.

Ambiguous nucleotide calls from population-based sequencing of HIV-1 are a marker for viral diversity and the age of infection.

Background. The time passed since the infection of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individual (the age of infection) is an important but often only poorly known quantity. We assessed whether the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides obtained from bulk sequencing as done for genotypic resistance testing can serve as a proxy of this parameter. Methods. We correlated the age of infection and the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides in partial pol sequences of HIV-1 sampled before initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Three groups of Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants were analyzed, for whom the age of infection was estimated on the basis of Bayesian back calculation (n = 3,307), seroconversion (n = 366), or diagnoses of primary HIV infection (n = 130). In addition, we studied 124 patients for whom longitudinal genotypic resistance testing was performed while they were still ART-naive. Results. We found that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides increased with the age of infection with a rate of .2% per year within the first 8 years but thereafter with a decreasing rate. We show that this pattern is consistent with population-genetic models for realistic parameters. Finally, we show that, in this highly representative population, a fraction of ambiguous nucleotides of >.5% provides strong evidence against a recent infection event < 1 year prior to sampling (negative predictive value, 98.7%). Conclusions. These findings show that the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides is a useful marker for the age of infection.

In vitro selection of bacteria with potential for use as probiotics in marine shrimp culture

The objective of this work was to isolate strains of lactic acid bacteria with probiotic potential from the digestive tract of marine shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei), and to carry out in vitro selection based on multiple characters. The ideotype (ideal proposed strain) was defined by the highest averages for the traits maximum growth velocity, final count of viable cells, and inhibition halo against nine freshwater and marine pathogens, and by the lowest averages for the traits duplication time and resistance of strains to NaCl (1.5 and 3%), pH (6, 8, and 9), and biliary salts (5%). Mahalanobis distance (D²) was estimated among the evaluated strains, and the best ones were those with the shortest distances to the ideotype. Ten bacterial strains were isolated and biochemically identified as Lactobacillus plantarum (3), L. brevis (3), Weissella confusa (2), Lactococcus lactis (1), and L. delbrueckii (1). Lactobacillus plantarum strains showed a wide spectrum of action and the largest inhibition halos against pathogens, both Gram-positive and negative, high growth rate, and tolerance to all evaluated parameters. In relation to ideotype, L. plantarum showed the lowest Mahalanobis (D²) distance, followed by the strains of W. confusa, L. brevis, L. lactis, and L. delbrueckii. Among the analyzed bacterial strains, those of Lactobacillus plantarum have the greatest potential for use as a probiotic for marine shrimp.