Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re)establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by TCB and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The first is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business Cycles literature.

Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy

This paper has three original contributions. The fi rst is the reconstruction effort of the series of employment and income to allow the creation of a new coincident index for the Brazilian economic activity. The second is the construction of a coincident index of the economic activity for Brazil, and from it, (re) establish a chronology of recessions in the recent past of the Brazilian economy. The coincident index follows the methodology proposed by The Conference Board (TCB) and it covers the period 1980:1 to 2007:11. The third is the construction and evaluation of many leading indicators of economic activity for Brazil which fills an important gap in the Brazilian Business-Cycle literature.

Endogenous normative indices for the industry concentration

This paper presents new indices for measuring the industry concentration. The indices proposed (C n ) are of a normative type because they embody (endogenous) weights matching the market shares of the individual firms to their Marshallian welfare shares. These indices belong to an enlarged class of the Performance Gradient Indexes introduced by Dansby&Willig(I979). The definition of Cn for the consumers allows a new interpretation for the Hirschman-Herfindahl index (H), which can be viewed as a normative index according to particular values of the demand parameters. For homogeneous product industries, Cn equates H for every market distribution if (and only if) the market demand is linear. Whenever the inverse demand curve is convex (concave), H underestimates( overestimates) the industry concentration measured by the normative indexo For these industries, H overestimates (underestimates) the concentration changes caused by market transfers among small firms if the inverse demand curve is convex(concave) and underestimates( overestimates) it when such tranfers benefit a large firm, according to the convexity (or the concavity) of the demand curve. For heterogeneous product industries, an explicit normative index is obtained with a market demand derived from a quasi-linear utilility function. Under symmetric preferences among the goods, the index Cn is always greater than or equal the H-index. Under asymmetric assumptions, discrepancies between the firms' market distribution and the differentiationj substitution distributions among the goods, increase the concentration but make room for some horizontal mergers do reduce it. In particular, a mean preserving spread of the differentiation(substitution) increases(decreases) the concentration only if the smaller firms' goods become more(less) differentiated(substitute) w.r.t. the other goods. One important consequence of these results is that the consumers are benefitted when the smaller firms are producing weak substitute goods, and the larger firms produce strong substitute goods or face demand curves weakly sensitive to their own prices.

Antecedents of e-loyalty and electronic word-of-mouth

O objetivo principal da dissertação foi o de examinar a relação entre lealdade (e-loyalty) e o boca-a-boca (eWOM) no contexto do varejo eletrônico. Como objetivo secundário, foi feito uma verificação da significância das variáveis preditoras de e-loyalty. Essa pesquisa foi focada em um tipo de produto/serviço: compra de livros através da internet. Duzentos e quarenta e dois questionários online foram respondidos por um público representativo da geração Y (millennials), e rresidentes em diferentes localidades no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos. A análise de dados foi efetuada pela aplicação do método PLS-SEM sobre um modelo de pesquisa cuidadosamente formulado com base em resultados empíricos prévios. Enquanto que a relação entre e-loyalty e eWOM foi classificada como fraca, um ambiente de boca-a-boca online de alta qualidade representou uma variável preditora significativa para o sentimento de e-loyalty. Todas as variáveis preditoras foram classificadas como significativas nesse estudo, sendo que comprometimento tem o efeito mais forte sobre a variável e-loyalty.

Spatial Assessment of Indices for Characterizing the Erosive Force of Rainfall in El Salvador Republic

Soil erosion data in El Salvador Republic are scarce and there is no rainfall erosivity map for this region. Considering that rainfall erosivity is an important guide for planning soil erosion control practices, a spatial assessment of indices for characterizing the erosive force of rainfall in El Salvador Republic was carried out. Using pluviometric records from 25 weather stations, we applied two methods: erosivity index equation and the Fournier index. In all study area, the rainiest period is from May to November. Annual values of erosivity index ranged from 7,196 to 17,856 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1) and the Fournier index ranged from 52.9 to 110.0 mm. The erosivity map showed that the study area can be broadly divided into three major erosion risk zones, and the Fournier index map was divided into four zones. Both methods revealed that the erosive force is severe in all study area and presented significant spatial correlation with each other. The erosive force in the country is concentrated mainly from May to November.

Criteria for analysis of the structure of electronic scientific journals

This paper is the result of the Masters dissertation studying the role and history of scientific communication, especially the changes that have occurred after the appearance of electronic communication and computer networks. This study showed that hypertext systems are increasingly being used in the scientific and academic world in the production of electronic journals; this makes it possible for the user to rapidly access information in their area. However, these systems need to be improved to help the user during search and access to information. Both printed journals migrating to electronic media, and the exclusively electronic journals should present the current quality indicators. The attempt was made to discover whether characteristics related to printed journals are being maintained in their electronic counterparts. For this, a prototype model was developed to analyze the structure of electronic scientific journals; it composes 14 criteria expressing aspects of quality for these journals. It includes elements of Website Information Architecture and those already in place in printed scientific journals in order to ensure that basic functions - archiving and dissemination - are maintained in electronic publishing. Each criterion consists of variables, which measure the maintenance of these functions both in the migrating printed journals and the exclusively electronic ones. This prototype model was used to analyze Ciência da Informação On-line and DataGramaZero - Revista de Ciência da Informação. Results indicate that this model is able to find out if the basic functions of archiving and dissemination are being maintained in electronic journals. Therefore, its implementation is justified in electronic journals. The model can help librarians, authors, and users of electronic journals to identify quality journals, and assist editors in developing their projects. The material from the study may be included in the preservice and inservice education of Information Science professionals and to support editors of scientific journals.

Autoria em artigos científicos: os novos desafios

A disseminação da prática de coautoria no Brasil e na comunidade internacional tem sido acompanhada pelo aumento no registro de fraudes, manipulações e outros desvios ao definir a responsabilidade por um trabalho científico. Este artigo discorre sobre os critérios utilizados para atribuição da autoria, as razões para o crescimento dos índices de coautoria e os desafios para estabelecer a autoria em periódicos eletrônicos. Por meio de revisão bibliográfica e estudo de caso (a partir de levantamento de base de dados), aponta caminhos para evitar que desvios de comportamento quanto à atribuição de autoria abalem a credibilidade da ciência.

Thermal comfort indices in individual shelters for dairy calves with different types of roofs

Dentre os materiais de construção utilizados nas instalações rurais, merecem destaque as coberturas, pois são grandes responsáveis pelo conforto térmico, influenciando no balanço térmico no interior das instalações. Este trabalho objetivou avaliar a influência das coberturas sobre a entalpia (H), Carga Térmica Radiante (CTR) e no Índice de Temperatura de Globo Negro e Umidade (ITGU), em abrigos individuais para bezerros leiteiros. O delineamento foi o inteiramente casualizado com três tratamentos: Z - telha de zinco; CA - telha de cimento amianto, e CAB - telha de cimento amianto pintada de branco na face superior. As médias foram comparadas pelo teste de Scott Knott, a 1% de probabilidade. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença estatística entre os tratamentos (P<0,01) e o ambiente externo, para a H. Para a CTR, houve diferença estatística entre todos os tratamentos, em que CAB demonstrou menor CTR, 489,28 W m-², seguido do tratamento CA, 506,72 W m-², e Z com maior valor de CTR, 523,55 W m-². Para o ITGU, observaram-se menores valores para CAB (76,8) e CA (77,4), diferindo-se, significativamente do Z, que obteve maior valor (81,6). As telhas com pintura branca em sua face superior promoveram menor CTR e menor ITGU, favorecendo o ambiente térmico da instalação.

Reproductive indices in natural nests of giant Amazon river turtles Podocnemis expansa (Schweigger, 1812) (Testudines, Podocnemididae) in the Environmental Protection Area Meanders of the Araguaia river

Realizou-se a contagem dos ovos não eclodidos, dos filhotes vivos e mortos de Podocnemis expansa oriundos de 327 ninhos naturais, localizados nas praias da Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) - Meandros do Rio Araguaia, onde se determinou a porcentagem de eclosão dos ovos (94,63%); não eclosão (5,37%); sobrevivência (94,24%) e mortalidade dos filhotes (5,76%), e a média de filhotes mortos durante os 15 dias no berçário (0,97%). A média do total de filhotes por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos e mortos divididos pelo total de ninhos, enquanto que a média do total de ovos por ninho foi determinada pela soma do número de filhotes vivos, mortos e ovos não eclodidos divididos pelo total de ninhos. Com isso, obtiveram-se os valores médios do número de filhotes vivos (88,98 ± 23,94); mortos (0,37 ± 0,93); ovos não eclodidos (5,07 ± 9,57), e total de ovos (94,42 ± 21,30). A eficiência reprodutiva da população selvagem de P. expansa pode ser afetada por muitos fatores ambientais, como temperatura, umidade e precipitação. Além disso, fatores influenciados pelo homem, como a presença de produtos químicos na água e a possibilidade de doenças infecciosas, também têm impacto significativo. Os dados dos índices reprodutivos obtidos neste estudo são indispensáveis para futuras investigações de anomalias de incubação.