Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Final Report on the Portable Computerized Assessments of Sleepy Drivers in Operational Environments, June 29, 2011

Excessive daytime sleepiness underpins a large number of the reported motor vehicle crashes. Fair and accurate field measures are needed to identify at-risk drivers who have been identified as potentially driving in a sleep deprived state on the basis of erratic driving behavior. The purpose of this research study was to evaluate a set of cognitive tests that can assist Motor Vehicle Enforcement Officers on duty in identifying drivers who may be engaged in sleep impaired driving. Currently no gold standard test exists to judge sleepiness in the field. Previous research has shown that Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT) is sensitive to sleep deprivation. The first goal of the current study was to evaluate whether computerized tests of attention and memory, more brief than PVT, would be as sensitive to sleepiness effects. The second goal of the study was to evaluate whether objective and subjective indices of acute and cumulative sleepiness predicted cognitive performance. Findings showed that sleepiness effects were detected in three out of six tasks. Furthermore, PVT was the only task that showed a consistent slowing of both ‘best’, i.e. minimum, and ‘typical’ responses, median RT due to sleepiness. However, PVT failed to show significant associations with objective measures of sleep deprivation (number of hours awake). The findings indicate that sleepiness tests in the field have significant limitations. The findings clearly show that it will not be possible to set absolute performance thresholds to identify sleep-impaired drivers based on cognitive performance on any test. Cooperation with industry to adjust work and rest cycles, and incentives to comply with those regulations will be critical components of a broad policy to prevent sleepy truck drivers from getting on the road.

Diagnostic Tools for Identifying Sleepy Drivers in the Field, RB21-012, 2013

The overarching goal of this project was to identify and evaluate cognitive and behavioral indices that are sensitive to sleep deprivation and may help identify commercial motor vehicle drivers (CMV) who are at-risk for driving in a sleep deprived state and may prove useful in field tests administered by officers. To that end, we evaluated indices of driver physiognomy (e.g., yawning, droopy eyelids, etc.) and driver behavioral/cognitive state (e.g. distracted driving) and the sensitivity of these indices to objective measures of sleep deprivation. The measures of sleep deprivation were sampled on repeated occasions over a period of 3.5-months in each of 44 drivers diagnosed with Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) and 22 controls (matched for gender, age within 5 years, education within 2 years, and county of residence for rural vs. urban driving). Comprehensive analyses showed that specific dimensions of driver physiognomy associated with sleepiness in previous research and face-valid composite scores of sleepiness did not: 1) distinguish participants with OSA from matched controls; 2) distinguish participants before and after PAP treatment including those who were compliant with their treatment; 3) predict levels of sleep deprivation acquired objectively from actigraphy watches, not even among those chronically sleep deprived. Those findings are consistent with large individual differences in driver physiognomy. In other words, when individuals were sleep deprived as confirmed by actigraphy watch output they did not show consistently reliable behavioral markers of being sleep deprived. This finding held whether each driver was compared to him/herself with adequate and inadequate sleep, and even among chronically sleep deprived drivers. The scientific evidence from this research study does not support the use of driver physiognomy as a valid measure of sleep deprivation or as a basis to judge whether a CMV driver is too fatigued to drive, as on the current Fatigued Driving Evaluation Checklist.. Fair and accurate determinations of CMV driver sleepiness in the field will likely require further research on alternative strategies that make use of a combination of information sources besides driver physiognomy, including work logs, actigraphy, in vehicle data recordings, GPS data on vehicle use, and performance tests.

Age vs. Experience: Evaluation of a Video Feedback Intervention for Newly Licensed Teen Drivers, TPF-5(207), 2013

This project examines the effects of age, experience, and video-based feedback on the rate and type of safety-relevant events captured on video event recorders in the vehicles of three groups of newly licensed young drivers: 1. 14.5- to 15.5-year-old drivers who hold a minor school license (see Appendix A for the provisions of the Iowa code governing minor school licenses); 2. 16-year-old drivers with an intermediate license who are driving unsupervised for the first time; 3. 16-year-old drivers with an intermediate license who previously drove unsupervised for at least four months with a school license. METHODS: The young drivers’ vehicles were equipped with an event-triggered video recording device for 24 weeks. Half of the participants received feedback regarding their driving, and the other half received no feedback at all and served as a control group. The number of safety-relevant events per 1,000 miles (i.e., “event rate”) was analyzed for 90 participants who completed the study. RESULTS: On average, the young drivers who received the video-based intervention had significantly lower event rates than those in the control group. This finding was true for all three groups. An effect of experience was seen for drivers in the control group; the 16-year-olds with driving experience had significantly lower event rates than the 16-year-olds without experience. When the intervention concluded, an increase in event rate was seen for the school license holders, but not for either group of 16-year-old drivers. There is strong evidence that giving young drivers video-based feedback, regardless of their age or level of driving experience, is effective in reducing the rate of safety-relevant events relative to a control group who do not receive feedback. Specific comparisons with regard to age and experience indicated that the age of the driver did not have an effect on the rate of safety-events, while experience did. Young drivers with six months or more of additional experience behind the wheel had nearly half as many safety-relevant events as those without that experience.

Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.

New microfluidic-based sampling procedure for overcoming the hematocrit problem associated with dried blood spot analysis.

Hematocrit (Hct) is one of the most critical issues associated with the bioanalytical methods used for dried blood spot (DBS) sample analysis. Because Hct determines the viscosity of blood, it may affect the spreading of blood onto the filter paper. Hence, accurate quantitative data can only be obtained if the size of the paper filter extracted contains a fixed blood volume. We describe for the first time a microfluidic-based sampling procedure to enable accurate blood volume collection on commercially available DBS cards. The system allows the collection of a controlled volume of blood (e.g., 5 or 10 μL) within several seconds. Reproducibility of the sampling volume was examined in vivo on capillary blood by quantifying caffeine and paraxanthine on 5 different extracted DBS spots at two different time points and in vitro with a test compound, Mavoglurant, on 10 different spots at two Hct levels. Entire spots were extracted. In addition, the accuracy and precision (n = 3) data for the Mavoglurant quantitation in blood with Hct levels between 26% and 62% were evaluated. The interspot precision data were below 9.0%, which was equivalent to that of a manually spotted volume with a pipet. No Hct effect was observed in the quantitative results obtained for Hct levels from 26% to 62%. These data indicate that our microfluidic-based sampling procedure is accurate and precise and that the analysis of Mavoglurant is not affected by the Hct values. This provides a simple procedure for DBS sampling with a fixed volume of capillary blood, which could eliminate the recurrent Hct issue linked to DBS sample analysis.

Reducing the Problem of Transverse Cracking, HR-232, 1985

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is continually improving the pavement management program and striving to reduce maintenance needs. Through a 1979 pavement management study, the Iowa DOT became a participant in a five state Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study of "Transverse Cracking of Asphalt Pavements". There were numerous conclusions and recommendations but no agreement as to the major factors contributing to transverse cracking or methods of preventing or reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. The project did focus attention on the problem and generated ideas for research. This project is one of two state funded research projects that were a direct result of the FHWA project. Iowa DOT personnel had been monitoring temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements by the Norman McLeod Modified Penetration Index. Even though there are many variables from one asphalt mix to another, the trend seemed to indicate that the frequency of transverse cracking was highly dependent on the temperature susceptibility. Research project HR-217 "Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking" was initiated to verify the concept. A final report has been published after a four-year evaluation. The crack frequency with the high temperature susceptible asphalt cement was substantially greater than for the low temperature susceptible asphalt cement. An increased asphalt cement content in the asphalt treated base also reduced the crack frequency. This research on prevention of transverse cracking with fabric supports the following conclusions: 1. Engineering fabric does not prevent transverse cracking of asphalt cement concrete. 2. Engineering fabric may retard the occurrence of transverse cracking. 3. Engineering fabric does not contribute significantly to the structural capability of an asphalt concrete pavement.

Drivers' Behavior at Railroad Grade Crossings: Before and After Safety Campaign, HR-335, 1992

In April 1991 the Iowa Department of Transportation, the CNW Transportation Company, the SOO Line, and local agencies and business in the Mason City/Clear Lake area initiated an Operation Lifesaver program to attempt to increase public awareness of safety issues and safe behavior at railroad-highway grade crossings. This document reports an initial study of data on traffic characteristics at a selected set of grade crossings in Cerro Gordo County taken before and after the safety program. Twenty-two crossings were studied. The 13 crossings at which collisions were reported for the five years prior to the study were included in the sample of sites. Two field observations were made at each study crossing before the Operation Lifesaver campaign was in full swing, and two observations were made after the conclusion of the main effort of the campaign. The summary of each data set is contained in a companion volume. The research shows that Operation Lifesaver altered drivers' behavior in the following ways: (1) reduced approach speeds and crossing speeds at crossings with low speed limits, (2) reduced the percent of drivers approaching the crossing at speeds in excess of the posted speed limit, and (3) increased alertness of drivers to railroad crossing hazards as evidenced by more drivers looking for a clear track. Thus, Operation Lifesaver enhanced safety in street and highway traffic operations in the vicinity of railroad-highway grade crossings.