Profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture systems in Pampanga, Philippines

We evaluate the profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture in the Philippines. Farm-level data are used to compare two production systems corresponding to the intensive monoculture of tilapia in freshwater ponds and the extensive polyculture of shrimps and fish in brackish water ponds. Both activities are very lucrative, with brackish water aquaculture achieving the higher level of profit per farm. Stochastic frontier production functions reveal that technical efficiency is low in brackish water aquaculture, with a mean of 53%, explained primarily by the operator's experience and by the frequency of his visits to the farm. In freshwater aquaculture, the farms achieve a mean efficiency level of 83%. The results suggest that the provision of extension services to brackish water fish farms might be a cost-effective way of increasing production and productivity in that sector. By contrast, technological change will have to be the driving force of future productivity growth in freshwater aquaculture.

Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change

Many ecosystem services are delivered by organisms that depend on habitats that are segregated spatially or temporally from the location where services are provided. Management of mobile organisms contributing to ecosystem services requires consideration not only of the local scale where services are delivered, but also the distribution of resources at the landscape scale, and the foraging ranges and dispersal movements of the mobile agents. We develop a conceptual model for exploring how one such mobile-agent-based ecosystem service (MABES), pollination, is affected by land-use change, and then generalize the model to other MABES. The model includes interactions and feedbacks among policies affecting land use, market forces and the biology of the organisms involved. Animal-mediated pollination contributes to the production of goods of value to humans such as crops; it also bolsters reproduction of wild plants on which other services or service-providing organisms depend. About one-third of crop production depends on animal pollinators, while 60-90% of plant species require an animal pollinator. The sensitivity of mobile organisms to ecological factors that operate across spatial scales makes the services provided by a given community of mobile agents highly contextual. Services vary, depending on the spatial and temporal distribution of resources surrounding the site, and on biotic interactions occurring locally, such as competition among pollinators for resources, and among plants for pollinators. The value of the resulting goods or services may feed back via market-based forces to influence land-use policies, which in turn influence land management practices that alter local habitat conditions and landscape structure. Developing conceptual models for MABES aids in identifying knowledge gaps, determining research priorities, and targeting interventions that can be applied in an adaptive management context.

Effect of species and genotype on the efficiency of enrichment of poultry meat with n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids

The effect of poultry species (broiler or turkey) and genotype (Wrolstad or BUT T8 turkeys and Ross 308 or Cobb 500 broilers) on the efficiency with which dietary longchain n-3 PUFA were incorporated into poultry meat was determined. Broilers and turkeys of both genotypes were fed one of six diets varying in FA composition (two replicates per genotype x diet interaction). Diets contained 50 g/kg added oil, which was either blended vegetable oil (control), or partially replaced with linseed oil (20 or 40 g/kg diet), fish oil (20 or 40 g/kg diet), or a mixture of the two (20 g linseed oil and 20 g fish oil/kg diet). Feeds and samples of skinless breast and thigh meat were analyzed for FA. Wrolstad dark meat was slightly more responsive than BUT T8 (P = 0.046) to increased dietary 18:3 concentrations (slopes of 0.570 and 0.465, respectively). The Ross 308 was also slightly more responsive than the Cobb 500 (P= 0.002) in this parameter (slopes of 0.557 and 0.449). There were no other significant differences between the genotypes. There was some evidence (based on the estimates of the slopes and their associated standard errors) that white turkey meat was more responsive than white chicken meat to 20:5 (slopes of 0.504 and 0.289 for turkeys and broilers, respectively). There was no relationship between dietary 18:3 n-3 content and meat 20:5 and 22:6 contents. If birds do convert 18:3 to higher FA, these acids are not then deposited in the edible tissues.

The use of early lactation milk protein content to predict subsequent fertility performance and likelihood of culling, in commercial dairy cows

A dataset of 1,846,990 completed lactation record,; was created Using milk recording data from 8,967 commercial dairy farms in the United Kingdom over a five year period. Herd-specific lactation curves describing levels of milk, Cat and protein by lactation number and month of calving were generated for each farm. The actual yield of milk and protein proportion at the first milk recording of individual cow lactations were compared with the levels taken from the lactation curves. Logistic regression analysis showed that cows production milk with a lower percentage of protein than average had a significantly lower probability of being in-calf at 100 days post calving and it significantly higher probability of being culled at the end of lactation. The culling rates derived from the studied database demonstrate the current high wastage rate of commercial dairy cows. Well of this wastage is due to involuntary culling as a result of reproductive failure.

Choosing the number of doses and the cohort size for phase I dose-escalation studies

This paper reviews Bayesian procedures for phase 1 dose-escalation studies and compares different dose schedules and cohort sizes. The methodology described is motivated by the situation of phase 1 dose-escalation studiesin oncology, that is, a single dose administered to each patient, with a single binary response ("toxicity"' or "no toxicity") observed. It is likely that a wider range of applications of the methodology is possible. In this paper, results from 10000-fold simulation runs conducted using the software package Bayesian ADEPT are presented. Four designs were compared under six scenarios. The simulation results indicate that there are slight advantages of having more dose levels and smaller cohort sizes.

Use of 16S rRNA-targeted oligonucleotide probes to investigate function and phylogeny of sulphate-reducing bacteria and methanogenic archaea in a UK estuary

Sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) and methanogenic archaea (MA) are important anaerobic terminal oxidisers of organic matter. However, we have little knowledge about the distribution and types of SRB and MA in the environment or the functional role they play in situ. Here we have utilised sediment slurry microcosms amended with ecologically significant substrates, including acetate and hydrogen, and specific functional inhibitors, to identify the important SRB and MA groups in two contrasting sites on a UK estuary. Substrate and inhibitor additions had significant effects on methane production and on acetate and sulphate consumption in the slurries. By using specific 16S-targeted oligonucleotide probes we were able to link specific SRB and MA groups to the use of the added substrates. Acetate consumption in the freshwater-dominated sediments was mediated by Methanosarcinales under low-sulphate conditions and Desulfobacter under the high-sulphate conditions that simulated a tidal incursion. In the marine-dominated sediments, acetate consumption was linked to Desulfobacter. Addition of trimethylamine, a non-competitive substrate for methanogenesis, led to a large increase in Methanosarcinales signal in marine slurries. Desulfobulbus was linked to non-sulphate-dependent H-2 consumption in the freshwater sediments. The addition of sulphate to freshwater sediments inhibited methane production and reduced signal from probes targeted to Methanosarcinales and Methanomicrobiales, while the addition of molybdate to marine sediments inhibited Desulfobulbus and Desulfobacterium. These data complement our understanding of the ecophysiology of the organisms detected and make a firm connection between the capabilities of species, as observed in the laboratory, to their roles in the environment. (C) 2003 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: An application and extension of the Bon Qualitative Input-Output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with 'knock-on' effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production-consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input-output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Differences in perceived risks and benefits of herbal, over-the-counter conventional, and prescribed conventional, medicines, and the implications of this for the safe and effective use of herbal products

Objectives: To investigate people's views about the efficacy and specific risks of herbal, over-the-counter (OTC) conventional, and prescribed conventional medicines, and their likelihood of taking a second (herbal or OTC conventional) product in addition to a prescribed medicine. Methods: Experiment 1 (1 factor within-participant design); Experiment 2 (1 factor between-participant design). Convenience samples of general population were given a hypothetical scenario and required to make a number of judgements. Results: People believed herbal remedies to be less effective, but less risky than OTC and prescribed conventional medicines. Herbal medicines were not seen as being safer simply because of their easier availability. Participants indicated that they would be more likely to take a herbal medicine than a conventional OTC medicine in addition to a prescribed medicine, and less likely to consult their doctor in advance. Conclusion: People believe that herbal medicines are natural and relatively safe and can be used with less caution. People need to be given clear information about the risks and benefits of herbal medicines if they are to use such products safety and effectively. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Informing people about the risks and benefits of medicines: implications for the safe and effective use of medicinal products

Providing effective information about drug risks and benefits has become a major challenge for health professionals, as many people are ill equipped to understand, retain and use the information effectively. This paper reviews the growing evidence that people’s understanding (and health behaviour) is not only affected by the content of medicines information, but also by the particular way in which it is presented. Such presentational factors include whether information is presented verbally or numerically, framed positively or negatively, whether risk reductions are described in relative or absolute terms (and baseline information included), and whether information is personalized or tailored in any way. It also looks at how understanding is affected by the order in which information is presented, and the way in which it is processed. The paper concludes by making a number of recommendations for providers of medicines information, about both the content and presentation of such information, that should enhance safe and effective medicines usage.

A framework for comparing pollinator performance: effectiveness and efficiency

Measuring pollinator performance has become increasingly important with emerging needs for risk assessment in conservation and sustainable agriculture that require multi-year and multi-site comparisons across studies. However, comparing pollinator performance across studies is difficult because of the diversity of concepts and disparate methods in use. Our review of the literature shows many unresolved ambiguities. Two different assessment concepts predominate: the first estimates stigmatic pollen deposition and the underlying pollinator behaviour parameters, while the second estimates the pollinator’s contribution to plant reproductive success, for example in terms of seed set. Both concepts include a number of parameters combined in diverse ways and named under a diversity of synonyms and homonyms. However, these concepts are overlapping because pollen deposition success is the most frequently used proxy for assessing the pollinator’s contribution to plant reproductive success. We analyse the diverse concepts and methods in the context of a new proposed conceptual framework with a modular approach based on pollen deposition, visit frequency, and contribution to seed set relative to the plant’s maximum female reproductive potential. A system of equations is proposed to optimize the balance between idealised theoretical concepts and practical operational methods. Our framework permits comparisons over a range of floral phenotypes, and spatial and temporal scales, because scaling up is based on the same fundamental unit of analysis, the single visit.

Cavity-enhanced absorption: detection of nitrogen dioxide and iodine monoxide using a violet laser diode

We present an application of cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy with an off-axis alignment of the cavity formed by two spherical mirrors and with time integration of the cavity-output intensity for detection of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and iodine monoxide (IO) radicals using a violet laser diode at lambda = 404.278 nm. A noise-equivalent (1sigma = root-mean-square variation of the signal) fractional absorption for one optical pass of 4.5x10(-8) was demonstrated with a mirror reflectivity of similar to0.99925, a cavity length of 0.22 m and a lock-in-amplifier time constant of 3 s. Noise-equivalent detection sensitivities towards nitrogen dioxide of 1.8x10(10) molecule cm(-3) and towards the IO radical of 3.3x10(9) molecule cm(-3) were achieved in flow tubes with an inner diameter of 4 cm for a lock-in-amplifier time constant of 3 s. Alkyl peroxy radicals were detected using chemical titration with excess nitric oxide (RO2 + NO --> RO + NO2). Measurement of oxygen-atom concentrations was accomplished by determining the depletion of NO2 in the reaction NO2 + O --> NO + O-2. Noise-equivalent concentrations of alkyl peroxy radicals and oxygen atoms were 3x10(10) molecule cm(-3) in the discharge-flow-tube experiments.