Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Exploring the validity and reliability of a questionnaire for evaluating virtual patient design with a special emphasis on fostering clinical reasoning

Background: The design of Virtual Patients (VPs) is essential. So far there are no validated evaluation instruments for VP design published. Summary of work: We examined three sources of validity evidence of an instrument to be filled out by students aimed at measuring the quality of VPs with a special emphasis on fostering clinical reasoning: (1) Content was examined based on theory of clinical reasoning and an international VP expert team. (2) Response process was explored in think aloud pilot studies with students and content analysis of free text questions accompanying each item of the instrument. (3) Internal structure was assessed by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using 2547 student evaluations and reliability was examined utilizing generalizability analysis. Summary of results: Content analysis was supported by theory underlying Gruppen and Frohna’s clinical reasoning model on which the instrument is based and an international VP expert team. The pilot study and analysis of free text comments supported the validity of the instrument. The CFA indicated that a three factor model comprising 6 items showed a good fit with the data. Alpha coefficients per factor were 0,74 - 0,82. The findings of the generalizability studies indicated that 40-200 student responses are needed in order to obtain reliable data on one VP. Conclusions: The described instrument has the potential to provide faculty with reliable and valid information about VP design. Take-home messages: We present a short instrument which can be of help in evaluating the design of VPs.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

An Ensemble Kalman Filter multi-tracer assimilation: Determining uncertain ocean model parameters for improved climate-carbon cycle projections

An Ensemble Kalman Filter is applied to assimilate observed tracer fields in various combinations in the Bern3D ocean model. Each tracer combination yields a set of optimal transport parameter values that are used in projections with prescribed CO2 stabilization pathways. The assimilation of temperature and salinity fields yields a too vigorous ventilation of the thermocline and the deep ocean, whereas the inclusion of CFC-11 and radiocarbon improves the representation of physical and biogeochemical tracers and of ventilation time scales. Projected peak uptake rates and cumulative uptake of CO2 by the ocean are around 20% lower for the parameters determined with CFC-11 and radiocarbon as additional target compared to those with salinity and temperature only. Higher surface temperature changes are simulated in the Greenland–Norwegian–Iceland Sea and in the Southern Ocean when CFC-11 is included in the Ensemble Kalman model tuning. These findings highlights the importance of ocean transport calibration for the design of near-term and long-term CO2 emission mitigation strategies and for climate projections.

Energy harvesting through arterial wall deformation: design considerations for a magneto-hydrodynamic generator

As the complexity of active medical implants increases, the task of embedding a life-long power supply at the time of implantation becomes more challenging. A periodic renewal of the energy source is often required. Human energy harvesting is, therefore, seen as a possible remedy. In this paper, we present a novel idea to harvest energy from the pressure-driven deformation of an artery by the principle of magneto-hydrodynamics. The generator relies on a highly electrically conductive fluid accelerated perpendicularly to a magnetic field by means of an efficient lever arm mechanism. An artery with 10 mm inner diameter is chosen as a potential implantation site and its ability to drive the generator is established. Three analytical models are proposed to investigate the relevant design parameters and to determine the existence of an optimal configuration. The predicted output power reaches 65 μW according to the first two models and 135 μW according to the third model. It is found that the generator, designed as a circular structure encompassing the artery, should not exceed a total volume of 3 cm3.

Asking Sensitive Questions in Online Surveys: An Experimental Comparison of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Self-administered online surveys provide a higher level of privacy protection to respondents than surveys administered by an interviewer. Yet, studies show that asking sensitive questions is problematic also in self-administered mode. Because respondents might not be willing to reveal the truth and provide answers that are subject to social desirability bias, the validity of prevalence estimates of sensitive behaviors gained via online surveys can be challenged. A well-known method to combat these problems is the Randomized Response Technique (RRT). However, convincing evidence that the RRT provides more valid estimates than direct questioning in online mode is still lacking. Moreover, an alternative approach called the Crosswise Model (CM) has recently been suggested to overcome some of the deficiencies of the RRT. In the context of an online survey on plagiarism and cheating on exams among students of two Swiss universities (N = 6,494), we tested different implementations of the RRT and the CM and compared them to direct questioning using a randomized experimental design. Results reveal a poor performance of the RRT, which failed to elicit higher prevalence estimates than direct questioning. Using the CM however, significantly higher prevalence estimates were obtained making it a promising new alternative to the conventional RRT.

Histomorphometric and Radiographical Changes After Lumbar Implantation of the PEEK Nonfusion Interspinous Device in the BB.4S Rat Model

Study Design. An experimental animal study. Objective. To investigate histomorphometric and radiographical changes in the BB.4S rat model after PEEK (polyetheretherketone) nonfusion interspinous device implantation. Summary of Background Data. Clinical effectiveness of the PEEK nonfusion spine implant Wallis (Abbott, Bordeaux, France; now Zimmer, Warsaw, IN) is well documented. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-term effects of this implant on bone, in particular its influence on structural changes of bone elements of the lumbar spine. Methods. Twenty-four male BB.4S rats aged 11 weeks underwent surgery for implantation of a PEEK nonfusion interspinous device or for a sham procedure in 3 groups of 8 animals each: 1) implantation at level L4–L5; 2) implantation at level L5–L6; and 3) sham surgery. Eleven weeks postoperatively osteolyses at the implant-bone interface were measured via radiograph, bone mineral density of vertebral bodies was analyzed using osteodensitometry, and bone mineral content as well as resorption of the spinous processes were examined by histomorphometry. Results. Resorption of the spinous processes at the site of the interspinous implant was found in all treated segments. There was no significant difference in either bone density of vertebral bodies or histomorphometric structure of the spinous processes between adjacent vertebral bodies, between treated and untreated segments and between groups. Conclusion. These findings indicate that resorption of spinous processes because of a result of implant loosening, inhibit the targeted load redistribution through the PEEK nonfusion interspinous device in the lumbar spinal segment of the rat. This leads to reduced long-term stability of the implant in the animal model. These results suggest that PEEK nonfusion interspinous devices like the Wallis implants may have time-limited effects and should only be used for specified indications.

Establishing occupational and environmental health design requirements for Lunar and Mars settlements

In a study of Lunar and Mars settlement concepts, an analysis was made of fundamental design assumptions in five technical areas against a model list of occupational and environmental health concerns. The technical areas included the proposed science projects to be supported, habitat and construction issues, closed ecosystem issues, the "MMM" issues--mining, material-processing, and manufacturing, and the human elements of physiology, behavior and mission approach. Four major lessons were learned. First it is possible to relate public health concerns to complex technological development in a proactive design mode, which has the potential for long-term cost savings. Second, it became very apparent that prior to committing any nation or international group to spending the billions to start and complete a lunar settlement, over the next century, that a significantly different approach must be taken from those previously proposed, to solve the closed ecosystem and "MMM" problems. Third, it also appears that the health concerns and technology issues to be addressed for human exploration into space are fundamentally those to be solved for human habitation of the earth (as a closed ecosystem) in the 21st century. Finally, it is proposed that ecosystem design modeling must develop new tools, based on probabilistic models as a step up from closed circuit models. ^

Design and analysis for three level hierarchical structures with count response

In numerous intervention studies and education field trials, random assignment to treatment occurs in clusters rather than at the level of observation. This departure of random assignment of units may be due to logistics, political feasibility, or ecological validity. Data within the same cluster or grouping are often correlated. Application of traditional regression techniques, which assume independence between observations, to clustered data produce consistent parameter estimates. However such estimators are often inefficient as compared to methods which incorporate the clustered nature of the data into the estimation procedure (Neuhaus 1993).1 Multilevel models, also known as random effects or random components models, can be used to account for the clustering of data by estimating higher level, or group, as well as lower level, or individual variation. Designing a study, in which the unit of observation is nested within higher level groupings, requires the determination of sample sizes at each level. This study investigates the design and analysis of various sampling strategies for a 3-level repeated measures design on the parameter estimates when the outcome variable of interest follows a Poisson distribution. ^ Results study suggest that second order PQL estimation produces the least biased estimates in the 3-level multilevel Poisson model followed by first order PQL and then second and first order MQL. The MQL estimates of both fixed and random parameters are generally satisfactory when the level 2 and level 3 variation is less than 0.10. However, as the higher level error variance increases, the MQL estimates become increasingly biased. If convergence of the estimation algorithm is not obtained by PQL procedure and higher level error variance is large, the estimates may be significantly biased. In this case bias correction techniques such as bootstrapping should be considered as an alternative procedure. For larger sample sizes, those structures with 20 or more units sampled at levels with normally distributed random errors produced more stable estimates with less sampling variance than structures with an increased number of level 1 units. For small sample sizes, sampling fewer units at the level with Poisson variation produces less sampling variation, however this criterion is no longer important when sample sizes are large. ^ 1Neuhaus J (1993). “Estimation efficiency and Tests of Covariate Effects with Clustered Binary Data”. Biometrics , 49, 989–996^

THE DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURVEY INSTRUMENT FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS

Using stress and coping as a unifying theoretical concept, a series of five models was developed in order to synthesize the survey questions and to classify information. These models identified the question, listed the research study, described measurements, listed workplace data, and listed industry and national reference data.^ A set of 38 instrument questions was developed within the five coping correlate categories. In addition, a set of 22 stress symptoms was also developed. The study was conducted within two groups, police and professors, on a large university campus. The groups were selected because their occupations were diverse, but they were a part of the same macroenvironment. The premise was that police officers would be more highly stressed than professors.^ Of a total study group of 80, there were 37 respondents. The difference in the mean stress responses was observable between the two groups. Not only were the responses similar within each group, but the stress level of response was also similar within each group. While the response to the survey instrument was good, only 3 respondents answered the stress symptom survey properly. It was determined that none of the 37 respondents believed that they were ill. This perception of being well was also evidenced by the grand mean of the stress scores of 2.76 (3.0 = moderate stress). This also caused fewer independent variables to be entered in the multiple regression model.^ The survey instrument was carefully designed to be universal. Universality is the ability to transcend occupational or regional definitions as applied to stress. It is the ability to measure responses within broad categories such as physiological, emotional, behavioral, social, and cognitive functions without losing the ability to measure the detail within the individual questions, or the relationships between questions and categories.^ Replication is much easier to achieve with standardized categories, questions, and measurement procedures such as those developed for the universal survey instrument. Because the survey instrument is universal it can be used as an analytical device, an assessment device, a basic tool for planning and a follow-up instrument to measure individual response to planned reductions in occupational stress. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

A Food Recognition System for Diabetic Patients based on an Optimized Bag of Features Model

Computer vision-based food recognition could be used to estimate a meal's carbohydrate content for diabetic patients. This study proposes a methodology for automatic food recognition, based on the Bag of Features (BoF) model. An extensive technical investigation was conducted for the identification and optimization of the best performing components involved in the BoF architecture, as well as the estimation of the corresponding parameters. For the design and evaluation of the prototype system, a visual dataset with nearly 5,000 food images was created and organized into 11 classes. The optimized system computes dense local features, using the scale-invariant feature transform on the HSV color space, builds a visual dictionary of 10,000 visual words by using the hierarchical k-means clustering and finally classifies the food images with a linear support vector machine classifier. The system achieved classification accuracy of the order of 78%, thus proving the feasibility of the proposed approach in a very challenging image dataset.

Biodiversity effects on nitrate concentrations in soil solution: a Bayesian model

Ecosystems are faced with high rates of species loss which has consequences for their functions and services. To assess the effects of plant species diversity on the nitrogen (N) cycle, we developed a model for monthly mean nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations in soil solution in 0-30 cm mineral soil depth using plant species and functional group richness and functional composition as drivers and assessing the effects of conversion of arable land to grassland, spatially heterogeneous soil properties, and climate. We used monthly mean NO3-N concentrations from 62 plots of a grassland plant diversity experiment from 2003 to 2006. Plant species richness (1-60) and functional group composition (1-4 functional groups: legumes, grasses, non-leguminous tall herbs, non-leguminous small herbs) were manipulated in a factorial design. Plant community composition, time since conversion from arable land to grassland, soil texture, and climate data (precipitation, soil moisture, air and soil temperature) were used to develop one general Bayesian multiple regression model for the 62 plots to allow an in-depth evaluation using the experimental design. The model simulated NO3-N concentrations with an overall Bayesian coefficient of determination of 0.48. The temporal course of NO3-N concentrations was simulated differently well for the individual plots with a maximum plot-specific Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.57. The model shows that NO3-N concentrations decrease with species richness, but this relation reverses if more than approx. 25 % of legume species are included in the mixture. Presence of legumes increases and presence of grasses decreases NO3-N concentrations compared to mixtures containing only small and tall herbs. Altogether, our model shows that there is a strong influence of plant community composition on NO3-N concentrations.

Dominance of chemokine ligand 2 and matrix metalloproteinase-2 and -9 and suppression of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the epidural compartment after intervertebral disc extrusion in a canine model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT In canine intervertebral disc (IVD) disease, a useful animal model, only little is known about the inflammatory response in the epidural space. PURPOSE To determine messenger RNA (mRNA) expressions of selected cytokines, chemokines, and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) qualitatively and semiquantitatively over the course of the disease and to correlate results to neurologic status and outcome. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Prospective study using extruded IVD material of dogs with thoracolumbar IVD extrusion. PATIENT SAMPLE Seventy affected and 13 control (24 samples) dogs. OUTCOME MEASURES Duration of neurologic signs, pretreatment, neurologic grade, severity of pain, and outcome were recorded. After diagnostic imaging, decompressive surgery was performed. METHODS Messenger RNA expressions of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interferon (IFN)γ, MMP-2, MMP-9, chemokine ligand (CCL)2, CCL3, and three housekeeping genes was determined in the collected epidural material by Panomics 2.0 QuantiGene Plex technology. Relative mRNA expression and fold changes were calculated. Relative mRNA expression was correlated statistically to clinical parameters. RESULTS Fold changes of TNF, IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IFNγ, and CCL3 were clearly downregulated in all stages of the disease. MMP-9 was downregulated in the acute stage and upregulated in the subacute and chronic phase. Interleukin-8 was upregulated in acute cases. MMP-2 showed mild and CCL2 strong upregulation over the whole course of the disease. In dogs with severe pain, CCL3 and IFNγ were significantly higher compared with dogs without pain (p=.017/.020). Dogs pretreated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs revealed significantly lower mRNA expression of IL-8 (p=.017). CONCLUSIONS The high CCL2 levels and upregulated MMPs combined with downregulated T-cell cytokines and suppressed pro-inflammatory genes in extruded canine disc material indicate that the epidural reaction is dominated by infiltrating monocytes differentiating into macrophages with tissue remodeling functions. These results will help to understand the pathogenic processes representing the basis for novel therapeutic approaches. The canine IVD disease model will be rewarding in this process.

Is a grooved collar implant design superior to a machined design regarding bone level alteration? An observational pilot study.

OBJECTIVE This retrospective observational pilot study examined differences in peri-implant bone level changes (ΔIBL) between two similar implant types differing only in the surface texture of the neck. The hypothesis tested was that ΔIBL would be greater with machined-neck implants than with groovedneck implants. METHOD AND MATERIALS 40 patients were enrolled; n = 20 implants with machined (group 1) and n = 20 implants with a rough, grooved neck (group 2), all placed in the posterior mandible. Radiographs were obtained after loading (at 3 to 9 months) and at 12 to 18 months after implant insertion. Case number calculation with respect to ΔIBL was conducted. Groups were compared using a Brunner-Langer model, the Mann-Whitney test, the Wilcoxon signed rank test, and linear model analysis. RESULTS After the 12- to 18-month observation period, mean ΔIBL was -1.11 ± 0.92 mm in group 1 and -1.25 ± 1.23 mm in group 2. ΔIBL depended significantly on time (P < .001), but not on group. In both groups, mean marginal ΔIBL was significantly less than -1.5 mm. Only insertion depth had a significant influence on the amount of periimplant bone loss (P = .013). Case number estimate testing for a difference between group 1 and 2 with a power of 90% revealed a sample size per group of 1,032 subjects. CONCLUSION ΔIBL values indicated that both implant designs fulfilled implant success criteria, and the modification of implant neck texture had no significant influence on ΔIBL.

Influence of inspiration to expiration ratio on cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis in a saline lavage model of acute respiratory distress syndrome*

OBJECTIVE Cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis can occur during mechanical ventilation, especially in injured lungs. Experimentally, cyclic recruitment and derecruitment can be quantified by respiration-dependent changes in PaO2 (ΔPaO2), reflecting the varying intrapulmonary shunt fraction within the respiratory cycle. This study investigated the effect of inspiration to expiration ratio upon ΔPaO2 and Horowitz index. DESIGN Prospective randomized study. SETTING Laboratory investigation. SUBJECTS Piglets, average weight 30 ± 2 kg. INTERVENTIONS At respiratory rate 6 breaths/min, end-inspiratory pressure (Pendinsp) 40 cm H2O, positive end-expiratory pressure 5 cm H2O, and FIO2 1.0, measurements were performed at randomly set inspiration to expiration ratios during baseline healthy and mild surfactant depletion injury. Lung damage was titrated by repetitive surfactant washout to induce maximal cyclic recruitment and derecruitment as measured by multifrequency phase fluorimetry. Regional ventilation distribution was evaluated by electrical impedance tomography. Step changes in airway pressure from 5 to 40 cm H2O and vice versa were performed after lavage to calculate PO2-based recruitment and derecruitment time constants (TAU). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS In baseline healthy, cyclic recruitment and derecruitment could not be provoked, whereas in model acute respiratory distress syndrome, the highest ΔPaO2 were routinely detected at an inspiration to expiration ratio of 1:4 (range, 52-277 torr [6.9-36.9 kPa]). Shorter expiration time reduced cyclic recruitment and derecruitment significantly (158 ± 85 torr [21.1 ± 11.3 kPa] [inspiration to expiration ratio, 1:4]; 25 ± 12 torr [3.3 ± 1.6 kPa] [inspiration to expiration ratio, 4:1]; p < 0.0001), whereas the PaO2/FIO2 ratio increased (267 ± 50 [inspiration to expiration ratio, 1:4]; 424 ± 53 [inspiration to expiration ratio, 4:1]; p < 0.0001). Correspondingly, regional ventilation redistributed toward dependent lung regions (p < 0.0001). Recruitment was much faster (TAU: fast 1.6 s [78%]; slow 9.2 s) than derecruitment (TAU: fast 3.1 s [87%]; slow 17.7 s) (p = 0.0078). CONCLUSIONS Inverse ratio ventilation minimizes cyclic recruitment and derecruitment of atelectasis in an experimental model of surfactant-depleted pigs. Time constants for recruitment and derecruitment, and regional ventilation distribution, reflect these findings and highlight the time dependency of cyclic recruitment and derecruitment.