A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Search for invisible decays of Higgs bosons in the vector boson fusion and associated ZH production modes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Model to estimate lysine requirements of broilers

The purpose of this study is to describe the development of a model to predict the digestible lysine requirements of broilers using the factorial approach, and to evaluate the model using as reference the model presented in Brazilian Tables for Poultry and Swine. The model partitions the requirement for maintenance and growth for feather-free body protein and feather protein, in which the inputs are body and feather protein weight and the daily rates of protein deposition in the feather-free body and feathers. The parameters that express the lysine requirement for maintenance were obtained in metabolism trials with roosters, and those for the efficiency of lysine utilization in experiments with broilers from 1 to 42 d. Based on these results the model proposed was: Lys (mg/d) = [(151xBP(m)(-0.27)xBP(t)) + (0.01xP(t)x18)] + [(75xBPD/0.77) + (18xFPD/0.77)], where Lys = digestible lysine requirement (mg/d), BPm=body protein weight at maturity (kg), BPt=body protein weight at time t (kg), FPt=feather protein weight at time t (kg), BPD=body protein deposition (g/d), FPD = feather protein deposition (g/d). The model yields sensible predictions of the digestible lysine requirements of broilers of different strains and ages growing at their potential, and suggests a lower lysine requirement after 27 d than does the Brazilian model. The proposed model is the first step in the development of a simulation model that predicts the food intake of a broiler and hence the dietary amino acid content that would optimise performance.

Genetic analysis of the temperament of Nellore cattle using linear and threshold models

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Search for physics beyond the standard model in dilepton mass spectra in proton-proton collisions at root s=8 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Search for dark matter, extra dimensions, and unparticles in monojet events in proton-proton collisions at root s=8TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Rho-omega mixing and the Nolen-Schiffer anomaly in relativistic nuclear models

We calculate within the framework of relativistic nuclear models the contribution of the ρ0 - ω mixing interaction to the binding energy differences of the mirror nuclei in the neighborhood of A = 16 and A = 40. We use two relativistic models for the nuclear structure, one with scalar and vector Woods-Saxon potentials, and the Walecka model. The ρ0 - ω interaction is treated in first order perturbation theory. When using the Walecka model the ρ- and ω-nucleon coupling constants are the same for calculating bound state wave functions and the perturbation due to the mixing. We find that the relativistic results on the average are of the same order as the ones obtained with nonrelativistic calculations.

Evaluation of the relationship between education and sustainability in peasant movements: The experience of the National Education Program in Agrarian Reform

Brazil is one of the largest agricultural producers in the world. However, its agrarian composition is based on two markedly different production models, particularly in relation to sustainability: a peasant family agriculture, which plays an important role in food production for domestic consumption and advocates agro-ecological practises; and agribusiness, the politically and economically hegemonic model that produces commodities for export based on monoculture and intensive use of pesticides. Therefore, in order to create the means to develop peasant lands, social movements and peasants have engaged themselves politically and defended an education model grounded in sustainable practises of production and social organisation. Taking this into account, the main purpose of this paper is to analyse and assess the Brazilian experience of integration between education and sustainability, in the National Education Program in Agrarian Reform (PRONERA). To accomplish this aim, a survey with a semi-structured questionnaire was carried out among teachers, students, monitors, and coordinators of the course offered by PRONERA. The surveys showed that the courses are promoting the concepts of sustainability among peasants. However, many adjustments need to be taken into consideration during the planning process for the next courses offered by PRONERA.

O recurso e o razoável

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

Health and Growth: Causality through Education

Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments and growth. We address potential endogeneity by using various strategies, such as controlling for country specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings--We show theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically we show that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value--The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments, that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting on increases in life expectancy, through its complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth..

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation Between Molecular Conformation, Packing, and Dynamics in Oligofluorenes: A Theoretical/Experimental Study

Fluorene-based systems have shown great potential as components in organic electronics and optoelectronics (organic photovoltaics, OPVs, organic light emitting diodes, OLEDs, and organic transistors, OTFTs). These systems have drawn attention primarily because they exhibit strong blue emission associated with relatively good thermal stability. It is well-known that the electronic properties of polymers are directly related to the molecular conformations and chain packing of polymers. Here, we used three oligofluorenes (trimer, pentamer, and heptamer) as model systems to theoretically investigate the conformational properties of fluorene molecules, starting with the identification of preferred conformations. The hybrid exchange correlation functional, OPBE, and ZINDO/S-CI showed that each oligomer exhibits a tendency to adopt a specific chain arrangement, which could be distinguished by comparing their UV/vis electronic absorption and C-13 NMR spectra. This feature was used to identify the preferred conformation of the oligomer chains in chloroform-cast films by comparing experimental and theoretical UV/vis and C-13 NMR spectra. Moreover, the oligomer chain packing and dynamics in the films were studied by DSC and several solid state NMR techniques, which indicated that the phase behavior of the films may be influenced by the tendency that each oligomeric chain has to adopt a given conformation.

Directed and elliptic flow of charged particles in Cu plus Cu collisions at root s(NN)=22.4 GeV

This paper reports results for directed flow v(1) and elliptic flow v(2) of charged particles in Cu + Cu collisions at root s(NN) = 22.4 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The measurements are for the 0-60% most central collisions, using charged particles observed in the STAR detector. Our measurements extend to 22.4-GeV Cu + Cu collisions the prior observation that v1 is independent of the system size at 62.4 and 200 GeV and also extend the scaling of v(1) with eta/y(beam) to this system. The measured v(2)(p(T)) in Cu + Cu collisions is similar for root s(NN) throughout the range 22.4 to 200 GeV. We also report a comparison with results from transport model (ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics and multiphase transport model) calculations. The model results do not agree quantitatively with the measured v(1)(eta), v(2)(p(T)), and v(2)(eta).

Study of using marker assisted selection on a beef cattle breeding program by model comparison

A data set of a commercial Nellore beef cattle selection program was used to compare breeding models that assumed or not markers effects to estimate the breeding values, when a reduced number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information available. This herd complete data set was composed of 83,404 animals measured for weaning weight (WW), post-weaning gain (PWG), scrotal circumference (SC) and muscle score (MS), corresponding to 116,652 animals in the relationship matrix. Single trait analyses were performed by MTDFREML software to estimate fixed and random effects solutions using this complete data. The additive effects estimated were assumed as the reference breeding values for those animals. The individual observed phenotype of each trait was adjusted for fixed and random effects solutions, except for direct additive effects. The adjusted phenotype composed of the additive and residual parts of observed phenotype was used as dependent variable for models' comparison. Among all measured animals of this herd, only 3160 animals were genotyped for 106 SNP markers. Three models were compared in terms of changes on animals' rank, global fit and predictive ability. Model 1 included only polygenic effects, model 2 included only markers effects and model 3 included both polygenic and markers effects. Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods performed by TM software was used to analyze the data for model comparison. Two different priors were adopted for markers effects in models 2 and 3, the first prior assumed was a uniform distribution (U) and, as a second prior, was assumed that markers effects were distributed as normal (N). Higher rank correlation coefficients were observed for models 3_U and 3_N, indicating a greater similarity of these models animals' rank and the rank based on the reference breeding values. Model 3_N presented a better global fit, as demonstrated by its low DIC. The best models in terms of predictive ability were models 1 and 3_N. Differences due prior assumed to markers effects in models 2 and 3 could be attributed to the better ability of normal prior in handle with collinear effects. The models 2_U and 2_N presented the worst performance, indicating that this small set of markers should not be used to genetically evaluate animals with no data, since its predictive ability is restricted. In conclusion, model 3_N presented a slight superiority when a reduce number of animals have phenotypic, genotypic and pedigree information. It could be attributed to the variation retained by markers and polygenic effects assumed together and the normal prior assumed to markers effects, that deals better with the collinearity between markers. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Growth of Panicum maximum: An Adaptation of the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage Model

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions and tools to aid in management and research on these forages would be highly beneficial both in research and the industry. This research was conducted to adapt the CROPGRO-Perennial Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species guineagrass (Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. 'Tanzania') and to describe model adaptation for this species. To develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation, and partitioning during a 17-mo experiment with Tanzania guineagrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Compared with starting parameters for palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. 'Xaraes'], dormancy effects of the perennial forage model had to be minimized, partitioning to storage tissue or root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield was 6576 kg ha(-1), averaged across 11 regrowth cycles of 35 (summer) or 63 d (winter), with a RMSE of 494 kg ha(-1) (Willmott's index of agreement d = 0.985, simulated/observed ratio = 1.014). The model also gave good predictions against an independent data set, with similar RMSE, ratio, and d. The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of guineagrass and can be used to simulate growth.