Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Mixture Densities for Binned and Truncated Multivariate Data

Binning and truncation of data are common in data analysis and machine learning. This paper addresses the problem of fitting mixture densities to multivariate binned and truncated data. The EM approach proposed by McLachlan and Jones (Biometrics, 44: 2, 571-578, 1988) for the univariate case is generalized to multivariate measurements. The multivariate solution requires the evaluation of multidimensional integrals over each bin at each iteration of the EM procedure. Naive implementation of the procedure can lead to computationally inefficient results. To reduce the computational cost a number of straightforward numerical techniques are proposed. Results on simulated data indicate that the proposed methods can achieve significant computational gains with no loss in the accuracy of the final parameter estimates. Furthermore, experimental results suggest that with a sufficient number of bins and data points it is possible to estimate the true underlying density almost as well as if the data were not binned. The paper concludes with a brief description of an application of this approach to diagnosis of iron deficiency anemia, in the context of binned and truncated bivariate measurements of volume and hemoglobin concentration from an individual's red blood cells.

Resolving the puzzle of productive and destructive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups: A communication accommodation theory approach

This study presents an investigation of the communicative behaviors and strategies employed in the stimulation and management of productive and destructive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups. Using communication accommodation theory (CAT), we argue that the type and course of conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups is impacted by the communicative behaviors and strategies employed by group members during interactions. Analysis of data from participant observations, non-participant observations, semi-structured interviews, and self-report questionnaires support CA T-based predictions and provide fresh insights into the triggers and management strategies associated with conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups. In particular, results indicated that the more groups used discourse management Strategies, the more they experienced productive conflict. In addition, the use of explanation and checking of own and others' understanding was a major feature of productive conflict, while speech interruptions emerged as a strategy leading to potential destructive conflict. Groups where leaders emerged and assisted in reversing communication breakdowns were better able to manage their discourse, and achieved consensus On task processes. Contributions to the understanding of the triggers and the management of productive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups are discussed.

Technical, allocative, cost and scale efficiencies in Bangladesh rice cultivation: A non-parametric approach

Applying programming techniques to detailed data for 406 rice farms in 21 villages, for 1997, produces inefficiency measures, which differ substantially from the results of simple yield and unit cost measures. For the Boro (dry) season, mean technical efficiency was efficiency was 56.2 per cent and 69.4 per cent, allocative efficiency was 81.3 per cent, cost efficiency was 56.2 per cent and scale efficiency 94.9 per cent. The Aman (wet) season results are similar, but a few points lower. Allocative inefficiency is due to overuse of labour, suggesting population pressure, and of fertiliser, where recommended rates may warrant revision. Second-stage regressions show that large families are more inefficient, whereas farmers with better access to input markets, and those who do less off-farm work, tend to be more efficient. The information on the sources of inter-farm performance differentials could be used by the extension agents to help inefficient farmers. There is little excuse for such sub-optimal use of survey data, which are often collected at substantial costs.

A framework for table driven testing of Java classes

With the advent of object-oriented languages and the portability of Java, the development and use of class libraries has become widespread. Effective class reuse depends on class reliability which in turn depends on thorough testing. This paper describes a class testing approach based on modeling each test case with a tuple and then generating large numbers of tuples to thoroughly cover an input space with many interesting combinations of values. The testing approach is supported by the Roast framework for the testing of Java classes. Roast provides automated tuple generation based on boundary values, unit operations that support driver standardization, and test case templates used for code generation. Roast produces thorough, compact test drivers with low development and maintenance cost. The framework and tool support are illustrated on a number of non-trivial classes, including a graphical user interface policy manager. Quantitative results are presented to substantiate the practicality and effectiveness of the approach. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Input-driven Language Learning

Input-driven models provide an explicit and readily testable account of language learning. Although we share Ellis's view that the statistical structure of the linguistic environment is a crucial and, until recently, relatively neglected variable in language learning, we also recognize that the approach makes three assumptions about cognition and language learning that are not universally shared. The three assumptions concern (a) the language learner as an intuitive statistician, (b) the constraints on what constitute relevant surface cues, and (c) the redescription problem faced by any system that seeks to derive abstract grammatical relations from the frequency of co-occurring surface forms and functions. These are significant assumptions that must be established if input-driven models are to gain wider acceptance. We comment on these issues and briefly describe a distributed, instance-based approach that retains the key features of the input-driven account advocated by Ellis but that also addresses shortcomings of the current approaches.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based clustering in gene expression microarrays: An application to breast cancer data

In microarray studies, the application of clustering techniques is often used to derive meaningful insights into the data. In the past, hierarchical methods have been the primary clustering tool employed to perform this task. The hierarchical algorithms have been mainly applied heuristically to these cluster analysis problems. Further, a major limitation of these methods is their inability to determine the number of clusters. Thus there is a need for a model-based approach to these. clustering problems. To this end, McLachlan et al. [7] developed a mixture model-based algorithm (EMMIX-GENE) for the clustering of tissue samples. To further investigate the EMMIX-GENE procedure as a model-based -approach, we present a case study involving the application of EMMIX-GENE to the breast cancer data as studied recently in van 't Veer et al. [10]. Our analysis considers the problem of clustering the tissue samples on the basis of the genes which is a non-standard problem because the number of genes greatly exceed the number of tissue samples. We demonstrate how EMMIX-GENE can be useful in reducing the initial set of genes down to a more computationally manageable size. The results from this analysis also emphasise the difficulty associated with the task of separating two tissue groups on the basis of a particular subset of genes. These results also shed light on why supervised methods have such a high misallocation error rate for the breast cancer data.

Olhares acerca do processo de construção dos Projetos Políticos Pedagógicos dos cursos Técnicos Integrados ao Ensino Médio de Jovens e Adultos no contexto do Ifes campus Vitória

Este trabalho é resultado da investigação que teve como objetivo analisar o processo de construção dos Projetos Políticos Pedagógicos dos cursos do Proeja no contexto do Ifes campus Vitória. O problema de pesquisa buscou captar os movimentos e as experiências desencadeados nesse processo. No percurso metodológico, com ênfase na pesquisa qualitativa, foi necessário entrelaçar duas abordagens: a etnografia escolar e a pesquisa-ação em função da atuação profissional da pesquisadora no lócus de estudo. Variados instrumentos foram utilizados para levantamento e a produção dos dados, dentre os quais: questionários, entrevistas, diário de campo das observações, pesquisa bibliográfica e documental. Participaram da pesquisa aproximadamente 80 pessoas, entre docentes, alunos e gestores, abordados em contextos específicos: o grupo de formação continuada, a comissão dos projetos, o encontros dos alunos, a reunião intermediária dentre outros. O referencial teórico-metodológico pautado na perspectiva do materialismo histórico dialético embasou toda a trajetória investigativa, em coerência com a base da produção das pesquisas sobre trabalho e educação e por se constituir a referência que fundamenta os princípios estruturantes do currículo integrado na perspectiva da formação humana. Por meio da metáfora dos observatórios, focamos nossas lentes sobre as questões que desafiaram a construção dos projetos políticos pedagógicos e sua coerência com os princípios epistemológicos, políticos e pedagógicos do Proeja. Nesse movimento, diversos olhares foram captados, possibilitando-nos levantar os seguintes resultados: o percurso de construção dos projetos foi marcado por contradições que perpassam todo o processo e que constituíram um debate profícuo que tenciona a gestão pedagógica, administrativa e financeira do Ifes campus Vitória. O movimento se constituiu também em um processo de construção, partilha de saberes e experiências, impulsionado pela busca da apreensão dos sentidos da integração, que contraditoriamente não alcançou seus objetivos, embora não se possa negar os resultados positivos do processo no interior da Instituição. Dessa forma, os desafios para efetivação da formação integrada no Ifes persistem. Ganha centralidade nessa discussão os sujeitos a quem o programa se volta e suas demandas de formação, bem como as condições materiais de oferta dos cursos e de forma especial as condições de envolvimento dos professores com o programa e as reflexões sobre suas práticas.

Problematizações do currículo-experiência no entre-lugar da educação infantil e do ensino fundamental : possíveis contribuições para o ensino fundamental de nove anos

Esse texto é um convite para discutir alguns atravessamentos colocados nas escolas a partir da implementação e implantação do Ensino Fundamental de Nove Anos, como política de governo reorganiza os espaçostempos da escola, impõe um currículo prescrito, uma avaliação por objetivos e coloca em discussão o que é ser criança e viver a infância na escola. Como objetivo principal, busca problematizar o processo de implementação e implantação do Ensino Fundamental de Nove Anos no município de Vitória-ES e suas implicações no entre-lugar da Educação Infantil e Ensino Fundamental. Para tanto foi necessário estar no cotidiano escolar, viver, sentir e conversar com os sujeitos praticantes: as criançasalunos; as professoras e as pedagogas. Nesse sentido, três movimentos foram realizados: o primeiro movimento consiste em um levantamento de dados documentais, pareceres, leis, diretrizes no âmbito nacional e municipal que determinaram a obrigatoriedade do Ensino Fundamental de Nove Anos; o segundo movimento consiste em trazer para análise alguns artigos publicados na Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Educação (ANPED) em quatro Grupos de Trabalho (GT) que abordam o tema “Ensino Fundamental de Nove Anos”, e também textos que circulam nas escolas e que foram organizados pelo Ministério da Educação e Cultura (MEC); o terceiro movimento consiste na pesquisa realizada em um Centro Municipal de Educação Infantil (CMEI) e em uma Escola Municipal de Ensino Fundamental (EMEF) no município de Vitória, no decorrer dos anos de 2011 e 2012, onde foi possível conversar com as criançasalunos de duas turmas do 1º ano, com as professoras e pedagogas. Utiliza como aporte teórico-metodológico as pesquisas nos/dos/com os cotidianos (CERTEAU 1994; ALVES 2001; FERRAÇO 2003) onde foi possível a apropriação de diferentes instrumentos de pesquisa, como: o diário de campo, recurso importante na intenção de capturar movimentos, falas e expressões; as conversas como tentativa de aproximação com os sujeitos para um fazer com e as oficinas de literatura como dispositivo de criação e produção de outros modos de pensar a criança e a infância. Na tentativa de discutir o lugar da criança no Ensino Fundamental de Nove Anos o conceito de devir-criança de Deleuze (1997) ajuda a pensar no movimento da criança como presença potente que produz outros modos de vida mais belos e intensos na escola e no currículo. O conceito de entre-lugar de Bhabha (2007) fortalece as discussões entre CMEI e EMEF como espaçostempos de negociações. As discussões de Kohan (2003) colocam em debate o lugar da infância que não indica um tempo cronológico, mas pensa em um encontro com a infância, com a experiência da infância. E Larrosa (2004) que com o conceito de experiência nos ajuda a pensar em um currículo-experiência, currículo esse que não está localizado no documento prescrito, nos espaçostempos da Educação Infantil ou do Ensino Fundamental, também não se localiza na criança, ou em uma dada infância, mas na composição com a escola, com as crianças, com as infâncias e isso só é possível no encontro com a criança que existe em nós.

Sensor-driven agenda for intelligent home care of the elderly

The exponential increase of home-bound persons who live alone and are in need of continuous monitoring requires new solutions to current problems. Most of these cases present illnesses such as motor or psychological disabilities that deprive of a normal living. Common events such as forgetfulness or falls are quite common and have to be prevented or dealt with. This paper introduces a platform to guide and assist these persons (mostly elderly people) by providing multisensory monitoring and intelligent assistance. The platform operates at three levels. The lower level, denominated ‘‘Data acquisition and processing’’performs the usual tasks of a monitoring system, collecting and processing data from the sensors for the purpose of detecting and tracking humans. The aim is to identify their activities in an intermediate level called ‘‘activity detection’’. The upper level, ‘‘Scheduling and decision-making’’, consists of a scheduler which provides warnings, schedules events in an intelligent manner and serves as an interface to the rest of the platform. The idea is to use mobile and static sensors performing constant monitoring of the user and his/her environment, providing a safe environment and an immediate response to severe problems. A case study on elderly fall detection in a nursery home bedroom demonstrates the usefulness of the proposal.