A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

Genetic predisposition influences plasma lipids of participants on habitual diet, but not the response to reductions in dietary intake of saturated fatty acids

Objective: SNPs identified from genome wide association studies associate with lipid risk markers of cardiovascular disease. This study investigated whether these SNPs altered the plasma lipid response to diet in the ‘RISCK’ study cohort. Methods: Participants (n = 490) from a dietary intervention to lower saturated fat by replacement with carbohydrate or monounsaturated fat, were genotyped for 39 lipid-associated SNPs. The association of each individual SNP, and of the SNPs combined (using genetic predisposition scores), with plasma lipid concentrations was assessed at baseline, and on change in response to 24 weeks on diets. Results: The associations between SNPs and lipid concentrations were directionally consistent with previous findings. The genetic predisposition scores were associated with higher baseline concentrations of plasma total(P = 0.02) and LDL (P = 0.002) cholesterol, triglycerides (P = 0.001) and apolipoprotein B (P = 0.004), and with lower baseline concentrations of HDL cholesterol (P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein A-I (P < 0.001). None of the SNPs showed significant association with the reduction of plasma lipids in response to the dietary interventions and there was no evidence of diet-gene interactions. Conclusion: Results from this exploratory study have shown that increased genetic predisposition was associated with an unfavourable plasma lipid profile at baseline, but did not influence the improvement in lipid profiles by the low-saturated-fat diets.

Effects of dietary polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation on fatty acid composition in muscle and subcutaneous adipose tissue of lambs

Lambs (n = 48) were used in a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments to evaluate effects of inclusion of oil containing PUFA in high-concentrate diets (with or without) and duration of oil supplementation (pre- vs. postweaning) on CLA concentration of muscle and adipose tissue. Lambs were fed preweaning creep diets (with or without oil) corresponding to the dietary lactation treatment diet (with or without oil) of the dam. Dams blocked by lambing date and rearing type were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 lactation dietary treatments with or without oil supplementation. Creep diets contained approximately 70% concentrate and 30% roughage and were provided to lambs for ad libitum intake. At weaning (58.7 ± 2.5 d of age), lambs (n = 48) were randomly assigned within preweaning treatment groups to 1 of 2 postweaning dietary treatments (with or without oil) and 16 pens in a randomized block design, blocked by sex and BW. Postweaning diets were formulated to contain approximately 80% concentrate and 20% roughage and were fed once daily for ad libitum intake. Soybean and linseed oil (2:1, respectively) replaced ground corn and provided 3% additional fat in pre- and postweaning diets. Lambs were slaughtered at 60.3 ± 4.2 kg of BW. A subcutaneous fat (SQ) sample was obtained within 1 h postmortem and a LM sample at the 12th rib was obtained 24 h postmortem, and both were analyzed for fatty acid profile. Feedlot performance and carcass measurements were not affected (P ≥ 0.26) by oil supplementation. Total CLA content of LM and SQ was not affected (P ≥ 0.08) by oil supplementation pre- or postweaning, but trans-10, cis-12 CLA was greater (P = 0.02) in SQ from lambs supplemented with oil postweaning. Total PUFA content in LM was greater (P = 0.02) in lambs supplemented with oil pre- or postweaning as a result of increased concentrations of 18:2cis-9, cis-12 and longer chain PUFA. Conversely, pre- and postweaning oil supplementation resulted in less (P = 0.04) MUFA content in LM. Only postweaning oil supplementation increased (P = 0.001) SQ PUFA content. Feeding oils containing PUFA to lambs pre- and postweaning did not increase CLA content of muscle, whereas postweaning oil supplementation minimally increased CLA concentration of SQ fat. Inclusion of soybean and linseed oil in pre- and postweaning diets increased total PUFA content of SQ fat and muscle tissue without adversely affecting growth performance or carcass characteristics.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ gene locus interact with age and dietary intake of fat to determine serum adiponectin in subjects at risk of the metabolic syndrome

Background: Adiponectin gene expression is modulated by peroxisome proliferator–activated receptor γ, which is a transcription factor activated by unsaturated fatty acids. Objective: We investigated the effect of the interaction between variants at the ADIPOQ gene locus, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, and the replacement of dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or carbohydrates on serum adiponectin concentrations. Design: The RISCK (Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, and Kings) study is a parallel-design, randomized controlled trial. Serum adiponectin concentrations were measured after a 4-wk high-SFA (HS) diet and a 24-wk intervention with reference (HS), high-MUFA (HM), and low-fat (LF) diets. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the ADIPOQ locus −11391 G/A (rs17300539), −10066 G/A (rs182052), −7734 A/C (rs16861209), and +276 G/T (rs1501299) were genotyped in 448 participants. Results: In white Europeans, +276 T was associated with higher serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 340; P = 0.006) and −10066 A was associated with lower serum adiponectin concentrations (n = 360; P = 0.03), after adjustment for age, BMI, and sex. After the HM diet, −10066 G/G subjects showed a 3.8% increase (95% CI: −0.1%, 7.7%) and G/A+A/A subjects a 2.6% decrease (95% CI: −5.6%, 0.4%) in serum adiponectin (P = 0.006 for difference after adjustment for the change in BMI, age, and sex). In −10066 G/G homozygotes, serum adiponectin increased with age after the HM diet and decreased after the LF diet. Conclusion: In white −10066 G/G homozygotes, an HM diet may help to increase adiponectin concentrations with advancing age. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as ISRCTN29111298.

Differential effects of dairy snacks on appetite, but not overall energy intake

Dietary regulation of appetite may contribute to the prevention and management of excess body weight. The present study examined the effect of consumption of individual dairy products as snacks on appetite and subsequent ad libitum lunch energy intake. In a randomised cross-over trial, forty overweight men (age 32 (sd 9) years; BMI 27 (sd 2) kg/m2) attended four sessions 1 week apart and received three isoenergetic (841 kJ) and isovolumetric (410 ml) servings of dairy snacks or water (control) 120 min after breakfast. Appetite profile was determined throughout the morning and ad libitum energy intake was assessed 90 min after the intake of snacks. Concentrations of amino acids, glucose, insulin, ghrelin and peptide tyrosine tyrosine were measured at baseline (0 min) and 80 min after the intake of snacks. Although the results showed that yogurt had the greatest suppressive effect on appetite, this could be confounded by the poor sensory ratings of yogurt. Hunger rating was 8, 10 and 24 % (P < 0·001) lower after the intake of yogurt than cheese, milk and water, respectively. Energy intake was 11, 9 and 12 % (P < 0·02) lower after the intake of yogurt, cheese and milk, respectively, compared with water (4312 (se 226) kJ). Although there was no difference in the postprandial responses of hormones, alanine and isoleucine concentrations were higher after the intake of yogurt than cheese and milk (P < 0·05). In conclusion, all dairy snacks reduced appetite and lunch intake compared with water. Yogurt had the greatest effect on suppressing subjective appetite ratings, but did not affect subsequent food intake compared with milk or cheese.

Reduced space optimal interpolation of daily rain gauge precipitation in Switzerland

The coarse spacing of automatic rain gauges complicates near-real- time spatial analyses of precipitation. We test the possibility of improving such analyses by considering, in addition to the in situ measurements, the spatial covariance structure inferred from past observations with a denser network. To this end, a statistical reconstruction technique, reduced space optimal interpolation (RSOI), is applied over Switzerland, a region of complex topography. RSOI consists of two main parts. First, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to obtain a reduced space representation of gridded high- resolution precipitation fields available for a multiyear calibration period in the past. Second, sparse real-time rain gauge observations are used to estimate the principal component scores and to reconstruct the precipitation field. In this way, climatological information at higher resolution than the near-real-time measurements is incorporated into the spatial analysis. PCA is found to efficiently reduce the dimensionality of the calibration fields, and RSOI is successful despite the difficulties associated with the statistical distribution of daily precipitation (skewness, dry days). Examples and a systematic evaluation show substantial added value over a simple interpolation technique that uses near-real-time observations only. The benefit is particularly strong for larger- scale precipitation and prominent topographic effects. Small-scale precipitation features are reconstructed at a skill comparable to that of the simple technique. Stratifying the reconstruction method by the types of weather type classifications yields little added skill. Apart from application in near real time, RSOI may also be valuable for enhancing instrumental precipitation analyses for the historic past when direct observations were sparse.

Frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption and blood antioxidants in the Caerphilly cohort of older men

Objective: To assess the number of portions of fruit and vegetables consumed daily by a large representative sample of older men, and to determine how blood antioxidant (vitamins E, A and carotenoids) concentrations vary with fruit and vegetable consumption. Design: Cross-sectional study of free-living men. Subjects: Men aged 55-69 y (dietary data, n=1957; blood data, n=1874) participating in Phase III (1989-1993) of the Caerphilly and Speedwell Collaborative Heart Disease Studies. Methods: Dietary data were obtained by semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire and blood samples were analysed for antioxidant vitamins. Men were subdivided into groups on the basis of portions per day of fruit and vegetables. Within these sub-groups, mean and 95% ranges of intakes and of blood antioxidant levels were obtained. Log transformations were performed where appropriate. Results: Only 4.3% of the men met the recommended target of five portions, while 33.3% of the men consumed one or fewer portions of fruit and vegetables per day. Those men who consumed the poorest diets with respect to fruit and vegetable intakes were more likely to be from lower socio-economic classes, drink more alcohol and be current smokers. Fruit and vegetable intake reflected plasma concentrations of antioxidants, which showed a dose-response relationship to frequency of consumption. Conclusions: Older men in the UK consume much less fruit and vegetables than current recommendations. Major difficulties are likely to be encountered in trying to meet a dietary target that is clearly much higher than the fruit and vegetable consumption of large sections of the older population in the UK.

Red meat intake-induced increases in fecal water genotoxicity correlate with pro-carcinogenic gene expression changes in the human colon

Red meat consumption is associated with an increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, which may be due to an increased endogenous formation of genotoxic N-nitroso compounds (NOCs). To assess the impact of red meat consumption on potential risk factors of CRC, we investigated the effect of a 7-day dietary red meat intervention in human subjects on endogenous NOC formation and fecal water genotoxicity in relation to genome-wide transcriptomic changes induced in colonic tissue. The intervention showed no effect on fecal NOC excretion but fecal water genotoxicity significantly increased in response to red meat intake. Colonic inflammation caused by inflammatory bowel disease, which has been suggested to stimulate endogenous nitrosation, did not influence fecal NOC excretion or fecal water genotoxicity. Transcriptomic analyses revealed that genes significantly correlating with the increase in fecal water genotoxicity were involved in biological pathways indicative of genotoxic effects, including modifications in DNA damage repair, cell cycle, and apoptosis pathways. Moreover, WNT signaling and nucleosome remodeling pathways were modulated which are implicated in human CRC development. We conclude that the gene expression changes identified in this study corroborate the genotoxic potential of diets high in red meat and point towards a potentially increased CRC risk in humans.

Hospital catering systems and their impact on the sensorial profile of foods provided to older patients in the UK

Impaired sensorial perception is very common in older people and low sensorial quality of foods is associated with decreased appetite and dietary intake. Hospital undernutrition in older patients could be linked to sensorial quality of hospital food if the quality were low or inappropriate for older people. The aim of this study was to examine changes in the sensorial quality of different foods that occur as a result of the food journey (i.e. freezing, regeneration, etc.) in the most common hospital catering systems in the UK. A trained sensory panel assessed sensorial descriptors of certain foods with and without the hospital food journey as it occurs in the in-house and cook/freeze systems. The results showed effects of the food journey on a small number of sensorial descriptors related to flavour, appearance and mouthfeel. The majority of these effects were due to temperature changes, which caused accumulation of condensation. A daily variation in sensorial descriptors was also detected and in some cases it was greater than the effect of the food journey. This study has shown that changes occur in the sensory quality of meals due to hospital food journeys, however these changes were small and are not expected to substantially contribute to acceptability or have a major role in hospital malnutrition.

Carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios of urine and faeces as novel nutritional biomarkers of meat and fish intake

Purpose Meat and fish consumption are associated with changes in the risk of chronic diseases. Intake is mainly assessed using self-reporting, as no true quantitative nutritional biomarker is available. The measurement of plasma fatty acids, often used as an alternative, is expensive and time-consuming. As meat and fish differ in their stable isotope ratios, δ13C and δ15N have been proposed as biomarkers. However, they have never been investigated in controlled human dietary intervention studies. Objective In a short-term feeding study, we investigated the suitability of δ13C and δ15N in blood, urine and faeces as biomarkers of meat and fish intake. Methods The dietary intervention study (n = 14) followed a randomised cross-over design with three eight-day dietary periods (meat, fish and half-meat–half-fish). In addition, 4 participants completed a vegetarian control period. At the end of each period, 24-h urine, fasting venous blood and faeces were collected and their δ13C and δ15N analysed. Results There was a significant difference between diets in isotope ratios in faeces and urine samples, but not in blood samples (Kruskal–Wallis test, p < 0.0001). In pairwise comparisons, δ13C and δ15N were significantly higher in urine and faecal samples following a fish diet when compared with all other diets, and significantly lower following a vegetarian diet. There was no significant difference in isotope ratio between meat and half-meat–half-fish diets for blood, urine or faecal samples. Conclusions The results of this study show that urinary and faecal δ13C and δ15N are suitable candidate biomarkers for short-term meat and fish intake.