The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6ka BP PMIP simulations

Runoff fields over northern Africa (10–25°N, 20°W–30°E) derived from 17 atmospheric general circulation models driven by identical 6 ka BP orbital forcing, sea surface temperatures, and CO2 concentration have been analyzed using a hydrological routing scheme (HYDRA) to simulate changes in lake area. The AGCM-simulated runoff produced six-fold differences in simulated lake area between models, although even the largest simulated changes considerably underestimate the observed changes in lake area during the mid-Holocene. The inter-model differences in simulated lake area are largely due to differences in simulated runoff (the squared correlation coefficient, R2, is 0.84). Most of these differences can be attributed to differences in the simulated precipitation (R2=0.83). The higher correlation between runoff and simulated lake area (R2=0.92) implies that simulated differences in evaporation have a contributory effect. When runoff is calculated using an offline land-surface scheme (BIOME3), the correlation between runoff and simulated lake area is (R2=0.94). Finally, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation can exert an important control on the overall response.

Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle: 1. Persistence of cusp proton aurora

We employ a numerical model of cusp ion precipitation and proton aurora emission to fit variations of the peak Doppler-shifted Lyman-a intensity observed on 26 November 2000 by the SI-12 channel of the FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. The major features of this event appeared in response to two brief swings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) toward a southward orientation. We reproduce the observed spatial distributions of this emission on newly opened field lines by combining the proton emission model with a model of the response of ionospheric convection. The simulations are based on the observed variations of the solar wind proton temperature and concentration and the interplanetary magnetic field clock angle. They also allow for the efficiency, sampling rate, integration time and spatial resolution of the FUV instrument. The good match (correlation coefficient 0.91, significant at the 98% level) between observed and modeled variations confirms the time constant (about 4 min) for the rise and decay of the proton emissions predicted by the model for southward IMF conditions. The implications for the detection of pulsed magnetopause reconnection using proton aurora are discussed for a range of interplanetary conditions.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Electronic working length determination in primary teeth by Propex and Digital Signal Processing

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of electronic apex locators Digital Signal Processing (DSP) and ProPex, for root canal length determination in primary teeth. Fifteen primary molars (a total of 34 root canals) were divided into two groups: Group I - without physiological resorption (n = 16); and Group II - with physiological resorption (n = 18). The length of each canal was measured by introducing a file until its tip was visible and then it was retracted 1 mm. For electronic measurement, the devices were set to 1 mm short of the apical resorption. The data were analysed statistically using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Results showed that the ICC was high for both electronic apex locators in all situations - with (ICC: DSP = 0.82 and Propex = 0.89) or without resorption (ICC: DSP = 0.92 and Propex = 0.90). Both apex locators were extremely accurate in determining the working length in primary teeth, both with or without physiological resorption.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Deterpenation of Bergamot Essential Oil Using Liquid-Liquid Extraction: Equilibrium Data of Model Systems at 298.2 K

The deterpenation of bergamot essential oil can be performed by liquid liquid extraction using hydrous ethanol as the solvent. A ternary mixture composed of 1-methyl-4-prop-1-en-2-yl-cydohexene (limonene), 3,7-dimethylocta-1,6-dien-3-yl-acetate (linalyl acetate), and 3,7-dimethylocta-1,6-dien-3-ol (linalool), three major compounds commonly found in bergamot oil, was used to simulate this essential oil. Liquid liquid equilibrium data were experimentally determined for systems containing essential oil compounds, ethanol, and water at 298.2 K and are reported in this paper. The experimental data were correlated using the NRTL and UNIQUAC models, and the mean deviations between calculated and experimental data were lower than 0.0062 in all systems, indicating the good descriptive quality of the molecular models. To verify the effect of the water mass fraction in the solvent and the linalool mass fraction in the terpene phase on the distribution coefficients of the essential oil compounds, nonlinear regression analyses were performed, obtaining mathematical models with correlation coefficient values higher than 0.99. The results show that as the water content in the solvent phase increased, the kappa value decreased, regardless of the type of compound studied. Conversely, as the linalool content increased, the distribution coefficients of hydrocarbon terpene and ester also increased. However, the linalool distribution coefficient values were negatively affected when the terpene alcohol content increased in the terpene phase.

Ozone formation potentials of volatile organic compounds and ozone sensitivity to their emission in the megacity of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the present study, a three-dimensional Eulerian photochemical model was employed to estimate the impact that organic compounds have on tropospheric ozone formation in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP). In the year 2000, base case simulations were conducted in two periods: August 22-24 and March 13-15. Based on the pollutant concentrations calculated by the model, the correlation coefficient relative to observations for ozone ranged from 0.91 to 0.93 in both periods. In the simulations employed to evaluate the ozone potential of individual VOCs, as well as the sensitivity of ozone to the VOC/NO(x) emission ratio, the variation in anthropogenic emissions was estimated at 15% (according to tests performed previously variations of 15% were stable). Although there were significant differences between the two periods, ozone concentrations were found to be much more sensitive to VOCs than to NO(x) in both periods and throughout the study domain. In addition, considering their individual rates of emission from vehicles, the species/classes that were most important for ozone formation were as follows: aromatics with a kOH>2x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); ethene; and formaldehyde, which are the principal species related to the production, transport, storage and combustion of fossil fuels.

Random sums of exchangeable variables and actuarial applications

In this paper we study the accumulated claim in some fixed time period, skipping the classical assumption of mutual independence between the variables involved. Two basic models are considered: Model I assumes that any pair of claims are equally correlated which means that the corresponding square-integrable sequence is exchangeable one. Model 2 states that the correlations between the adjacent claims are the same. Recurrence and explicit expressions for the joint probability generating function are derived and the impact of the dependence parameter (correlation coefficient) in both models is examined. The Markov binomial distribution is obtained as a particular case under assumptions of Model 2. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biocompatible in-tube solid phase microextraction coupled with liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection for determination of interferon alpha in plasma samples

The present work demonstrates the successful application of automated biocompatible in-tube solid-phase microextraction coupled with liquid chromatography (in-tube SPME/LC) for determination of interferon alpha(2a) (IFN alpha(2a)) in plasma samples for therapeutic drug monitoring. A restricted access material (RAM, protein-coated silica) was employed for preparation of a lab-made biocompatible in-tube SPME capillary that enables the direct injection of biological fluids as well as the simultaneous exclusion of macromolecules by chemical diffusion barrier and drug pre-concentration. The in-tube SPME variables, such as sample volume, draw/eject volume, number of draw-eject cycles, and desorption mode were optimized, to improve the sensitivity of the proposed method. The IFN alpha(2a) analyses in plasma sample were carried out within 25 min (sample preparation and LC analyses). The response of the proposed method was linear over a dynamic range, from 0.06 to 3.0 MIU mL(-1), with correlation coefficient equal to 0.998. The interday precision of the method presented coefficient of variation lower than 8%. The proposed automated method has adequate analytical sensitivity and selectivity for determination of IFN alpha(2a) in plasma samples for therapeutic drug monitoring. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast and Simple Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Method To Measure Conjugated Linoleic Acid in Beef

Conjugated linoleic acids (CLAs) are a group of linoleic acid isomers that are naturally found in food products originating from ruminants (meat and dairy). These acids have received special attention in recent years due to their potential human health benefits. Research efforts have been proposed to increase the CLA content in beef to improve public health. However, because there are more than 30 million beef cattle used each year by the American food industry, it will be necessary to ensure their content in a large number of samples. Therefore, it is important to have an inexpensive and rapid analytical method to measure CLA content in food products. Because gas chromatography (GC), a current popular method for measuring CLAs, is slow, this paper describes a nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H NMR) method that is potentially >10 times faster than the GC method. Analyses show a correlation coefficient of 0.97, indicating the capacity of NMR to quantify the CLA content in beef samples. Furthermore, the method proposed herein is simple and does not require sophisticated sample preparation.

Self-reported symptoms and motor tests via telemetry in a 36-month levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel infusion trial

Objective To investigate if a home environment test battery can be used to measure effects of Parkinson’s disease (PD) treatment intervention and disease progression. Background Seventy-seven patients diagnosed with advanced PD were recruited in an open longitudinal 36-month study at 10 clinics in Sweden and Norway; 40 of them were treated with levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel (LCIG) and 37 patients were candidates for switching from oral PD treatment to LCIG. They utilized a mobile device test battery, consisting of self-assessments of symptoms and objective measures of motor function through a set of fine motor tests (tapping and spiral drawings), in their homes. Both the LCIG-naïve and LCIG-non-naïve patients used the test battery four times per day during week-long test periods. Methods Assessments The LCIG-naïve patients used the test battery at baseline (before LCIG), month 0 (first visit; at least 3 months after intraduodenal LCIG), and thereafter quarterly for the first year and biannually for the second and third years. The LCIG-non-naïve patients used the test battery from the first visit, i.e. month 0. Out of the 77 patients, only 65 utilized the test battery; 35 were LCIG-non-naïve and 30 LCIG-naïve. In 20 of the LCIG-naïve patients, assessments with the test battery were available during oral treatment and at least one test period after having started infusion treatment. Three LCIG-naïve patients did not use the test battery at baseline but had at least one test period of assessments thereafter. Hence, n=23 in the LCIG-naïve group. In total, symptom assessments in the full sample (including both patient groups) were collected during 379 test periods and 10079 test occasions. For 369 of these test periods, clinical assessments including UPDRS and PDQ-39 were performed in afternoons at the start of the test periods. The repeated measurements of the test battery were processed and summarized into scores representing patients’ symptom severities over a test period, using statistical methods. Six conceptual dimensions were defined; four subjectively-reported: ‘walking’, ‘satisfied’, ‘dyskinesia’, and ‘off’ and two objectively-measured: ‘tapping’ and ‘spiral’. In addition, an ‘overall test score’ (OTS) was defined to represent the global health condition of the patient during a test period. Statistical methods Change in the test battery scores over time, that is at baseline and follow-up test periods, was assessed with linear mixed-effects models with patient ID as a random effect and test period as a fixed effect of interest. The within-patient variability of OTS was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), for the two patient groups. Correlations between clinical rating scores and test battery scores were assessed using Spearman’s rank correlations (rho). Results In LCIG-naïve patients, mean OTS compared to baseline was significantly improved from the first test period on LCIG treatment until month 24. However, there were no significant changes in mean OTS scores of LCIG-non-naïve patients, except for worse mean OTS at month 36 (p<0.01, n=16). The mean scores of all subjectively-reported dimensions improved significantly throughout the course of the study, except ‘walking’ at month 36 (p=0.41, n=4). However, there were no significant differences in mean scores of objectively-measured dimensions between baseline and other test periods, except improved ‘tapping’ at month 6 and month 36, and ‘spiral’ at month 3 (p<0.05). The LCIG-naïve patients had a higher within-subject variability in their OTS scores (ICC=0.67) compared to LCIG-non-naïve patients (ICC=0.71). The OTS correlated adequately with total UPDRS (rho=0.59) and total PDQ-39 (rho=0.59). Conclusions In this 3-year follow-up study of advanced PD patients treated with LCIG we found that it is possible to monitor PD progression over time using a home environment test battery. The significant improvements in the mean OTS scores indicate that the test battery is able to measure functional improvement with LCIG sustained over at least 24 months.

Determinação da dose eritematosa mínima como marcador de risco e sensibilidade à radiação ultravioleta

Objetivos: Determinar a dose eritematosa mínima (DEM) medida por exposição controlada à radiação ultravioleta-B (RUV-B), como limiar para dano solar agudo nos diversos fototipos, e medir a cor da pele constitucional pelo sistema colorimétrico CIELAB. Pacientes e Métodos: Um total de 194 voluntários, sadios, com idades acima de 18 anos, distribuídos em um mínimo de 30 participantes por fototipo. Todos foram classificados por fototipos segundo os critérios de Fitzpatrick. As regiões infra-axilar torácica e nádega foram irradiadas em 4 áreas de 1 cm2, assim como foi registrada a cor da pele desses locais pelo sistema CIELAB. Delineamento: Estudo transversal. Resultados: A média de idade dos participantes foi de 38 anos, sendo 68% do sexo feminino. A avaliação da associação entre as medidas das DEMs e dos valores colorimétricos da coordenada L*, mostrou uma correlação de Pearson negativa com r = -0,91 para um valor p<0,05. Para os valores das DEMs e os escores da classificação dos voluntários por fototipos, obteve-se correlação de Spearman (rs) de +0,95 para p<0,05 e, correlacionando os valores colorimétricos com os escores dos fototipos, encontrou-se em tórax um rs de -0,93 e em nádega -0,92 para um p < 0,05. Conclusões – Concluiu-se que: 1)- a mensuração dos valores colorimétricos da coordenada L* nas regiões infra-axilar torácica e nádega mostraram uma forte correlação com os valores das DEMs, sendo de menor poder invasivo e de maior praticidade para mensuração de sensibilidade à radiação ultravioleta; 2)- apesar de os escores de Fitzpatrick terem alta correlação com os valores das DEMs, mostraram superposição de valores nos fototipos adjacentes; 3)- o grau de associação das classes dos fototipos com a cor da pele permite dizer que a categoria numérica do fototipo aumenta à medida que a pele fica mais escura.

Avaliação de um programa computacional para a medida da lordose lombar

Objetivo: métodos antropométricos que quantifiquem as curvas da coluna vertebral e a avaliação postural a fim de realizar investigações epidemiológicas sobre o papel da postura na ocorrência das dores lombares. O propósito do estudo foi avaliar acurácia e reprodutibilidade do Sistema de Avaliação Postural Digitalizado (SAPD) para medir lordose lombar comparando com raio-x. Delineamento: transversal, com amostra consecutiva. Participantes: para medida da acurácia no grupo 1 ( T12,L3,L5) n = 16 e grupo 2 (L1,L3,L5) n= 17. Na reprodutibilidade intra e inter-avaliador n= 80. Principais Medidas: marcadores externos nos processos espinhosos das vértebras T12, L1, L3 e L5. Raio-x de perfil da coluna lombar e foto digital em perfil direito. Medida da lordose lombar no raio-x com métodos de Cobb,Centróide (CLL) e Processos Espinhosos (PE) e com o SAPD. Resultados: grupo 1, correlação entre SAPD e Cobb foi 0,803 (p<0,001), entre SAPD e CLL foi 0,642 (p=0,024), entre SAPD e a medida dos PE a correlação foi 0,917, com R2 = 0,842. No grupo 2, correlação entre SAPD e Cobb foi 0,559 (p=0,020), entre SAPD e CLL de 0,325 (p=0,302), com correlação significativa somente entre SAPD e Cobb. Entre SAPD e PE a correlação foi 0,763, com R2 = 0,583. Para reprodutibilidade interavaliador a correlação foi 0,981 (p < 0,001) e para reprodutibilidade intra-avaliador de 0.978 (p < 0,001) referente às mesmas fotografias. Reprodutibilidade intraavaliador de 0.872 (p < 0.001) e 0.956 (p<0,001) para inter-avaliador referente à fotos diferentes de um mesmo indivíduo com recolocação dos marcadores sobre a pele . Considerações Finais: O SAPD mostrou-se acurado e reprodutível para a medida da lordose lombar.

Estudo experimental sobre a precisão e validade dos escores introversão-extroversão de uma adaptação brasileira do Maudsley Personality Inventory de H.J. Eysenck

O propósito dos trabalhos experimentais expostos na presente dissertação foi o de estudar a versão brasileira do Maudaley Personality Inventory. de Eysench. no que diz respeito à sua dimensão bipolar introversão-extroversão. A adaptação brasileira (devida à Professora Riva Bauzer) foi aplicada por duas vezes a 70 estudantes, de quatro turmas do Colégio Batista Shepard, que são nossos alunos de psicologia. Paralelamente a esta aplicação, foi aplicado por duas vezes sucessivas, aos mesmos alunos, um questionário por nós organizado. Nele era pedida a cada um uma avaliação subjetiva do grau de introversão-extroversão dos respectivos colegas de classe. Desse modo tivemos a possibilidade de avaliar: a) o coeficiente de precisão do questionário; b) o coeficiente de precisão do Maudeley Personality Inventory; c) o coeficiente de validade do Maudaley Persona lity Inventory, tomando o questionário como critério de validação. Entretanto, nao terminaram ai nossos trabalhos. Por meio do coeficiente de correlação bisserial, foi estimado o poder discriminante de cada uma das questões do Maudsley Personality Inventory, assim como seu grau de "popularidade". Esta é uma denominação por nós atribuida à porcentagem de sujeitos que assinalaram a questão no sentido de extroversão. Estes elementos abrem caminho para a realização de pesquisas ulteriores com a finalidade de aperfeiçoar a versão brasileira do Maudsley Personality Inventory.

Atribuição de causalidade e de controle a loucura por diversos profissionais e por religiosos

O presente trabalho objetivou conhecer a percepção de profissionais de nível superior e religiosos sobre as causas e o controle da doença mental. Levantou-se opiniões de 360 profissionais (psicólogos, médicos e médicos psiquiatras, enfermeiros e enfermeiros psiquiatras, assistentes sociais, sociólogos, técnicos de administração, economistas e engenheiro s) e 60 religiosos (padres e freiras). Foram utilizadas duas escalas em forma de questionário: a Mental Health of Locus of Origin (MHLO) e a Mental Health Locus of Control (MHLC). Foi feita a distribuição dos sujeitos de acordo com os pontos obtidos em cada escala; discriminou-se o número de sujeitos que acreditam mais nas causas orgânicas da doença mental e o número de sujeitos que acreditam nas causas ambientais, segundo cada item da MHLO. Também discriminou-se quantos sujeitos acreditam que o sucesso da psicoterapia depende mais do comportamento do cliente e os que acreditam que tal sucesso depende mais da capacidade do terapeuta, segundo cada item da MHLC. Caluulou-se o coeficiente de correlação entre locus de origem e locus de controle da doença mental, e coeficiente de confiabilidade das duas escalas. As principais conclusões indicam que os psicólogos, assistentes sociais e ·sociólogos acreditam mais que os médicos e enfermeiros e estes mais do que os religiosos e os tecnólogos que a doença mental e causada por fatores ambientais e que o seu controle depende mais do comportamento do cliente do que d a capacidade do terapeuta.