Simple approximate MAP inference for Dirichlet processes mixtures

The Dirichlet process mixture model (DPMM) is a ubiquitous, flexible Bayesian nonparametric statistical model. However, full probabilistic inference in this model is analytically intractable, so that computationally intensive techniques such as Gibbs sampling are required. As a result, DPMM-based methods, which have considerable potential, are restricted to applications in which computational resources and time for inference is plentiful. For example, they would not be practical for digital signal processing on embedded hardware, where computational resources are at a serious premium. Here, we develop a simplified yet statistically rigorous approximate maximum a-posteriori (MAP) inference algorithm for DPMMs. This algorithm is as simple as DP-means clustering, solves the MAP problem as well as Gibbs sampling, while requiring only a fraction of the computational effort. (For freely available code that implements the MAP-DP algorithm for Gaussian mixtures see http://www.maxlittle.net/.) Unlike related small variance asymptotics (SVA), our method is non-degenerate and so inherits the “rich get richer” property of the Dirichlet process. It also retains a non-degenerate closed-form likelihood which enables out-of-sample calculations and the use of standard tools such as cross-validation. We illustrate the benefits of our algorithm on a range of examples and contrast it to variational, SVA and sampling approaches from both a computational complexity perspective as well as in terms of clustering performance. We demonstrate the wide applicabiity of our approach by presenting an approximate MAP inference method for the infinite hidden Markov model whose performance contrasts favorably with a recently proposed hybrid SVA approach. Similarly, we show how our algorithm can applied to a semiparametric mixed-effects regression model where the random effects distribution is modelled using an infinite mixture model, as used in longitudinal progression modelling in population health science. Finally, we propose directions for future research on approximate MAP inference in Bayesian nonparametrics.

Improved inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance using bootstrap methods

Two new methodologies are introduced to improve inference in the evaluation of mutual fund performance against benchmarks. First, the benchmark models are estimated using panel methods with both fund and time effects. Second, the non-normality of individual mutual fund returns is accounted for by using panel bootstrap methods. We also augment the standard benchmark factors with fund-specific characteristics, such as fund size. Using a dataset of UK equity mutual fund returns, we find that fund size has a negative effect on the average fund manager’s benchmark-adjusted performance. Further, when we allow for time effects and the non-normality of fund returns, we find that there is no evidence that even the best performing fund managers can significantly out-perform the augmented benchmarks after fund management charges are taken into account.

Modelo causal de los factores asociados al aprendizaje autorregulado como mediador del rendimiento académico en estudiantes universitarios

El objetivo general de esta investigación fue medir, describir, relacionar y analizar las estrategias cognitivas, metacognitivas y contextuales así como la motivación hacia el aprendizaje de estudiantes universitarios mexicanos, y su relación con diversas variables educativas y socio-familiares como determinantes del rendimiento académico en la universidad, desde la teoría social-cognitiva del aprendizaje autorregulado. Mediante la aplicación y el análisis posterior de las bases de datos institucionales obtenidas del Examen Nacional de Ingreso al Nivel Superior (EXANI-II) y del Cuestionario de Contexto del Centro Nacional de Evaluación (CENEVAL) de los 1,140 estudiantes de licenciatura de la Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán (UADY) que respondieron el Cuestionario de Motivación y Estrategias de Aprendizaje (CMEA) diseñado a partir de la traducción, adaptación y validación del Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ). El tipo de investigación seleccionada fue cuasiexperimental, descriptivo y correlacional-causal. Se realizó un análisis de frecuencias de las variables descriptivas, se calcularon los estadísticos descriptivos de los resultados en las sub-escalas del CMEA, y análisis de medias mediante la prueba t de Student para muestras no relacionadas y análisis de varianza. Finalmente, se calcularon los índices de correlación entre las variables educativas, socio-familiares, motivacionales, y de uso de estrategias y el rendimiento académico. Para evaluar la hipótesis general del ajuste del modelo teórico a los datos se utilizó el programa SPSS Amos 16 y el paquete sem 0.9-14 en R 2.8.0...

Preference inference based on Pareto models

In this paper, we consider Preference Inference based on a generalised form of Pareto order. Preference Inference aims at reasoning over an incomplete specification of user preferences. We focus on two problems. The Preference Deduction Problem (PDP) asks if another preference statement can be deduced (with certainty) from a set of given preference statements. The Preference Consistency Problem (PCP) asks if a set of given preference statements is consistent, i.e., the statements are not contradicting each other. Here, preference statements are direct comparisons between alternatives (strict and non-strict). It is assumed that a set of evaluation functions is known by which all alternatives can be rated. We consider Pareto models which induce order relations on the set of alternatives in a Pareto manner, i.e., one alternative is preferred to another only if it is preferred on every component of the model. We describe characterisations for deduction and consistency based on an analysis of the set of evaluation functions, and present algorithmic solutions and complexity results for PDP and PCP, based on Pareto models in general and for a special case. Furthermore, a comparison shows that the inference based on Pareto models is less cautious than some other types of well-known preference model.

Resolución 137 del 15 de agosto de 2014: ¿Cuál es el alcance del control de legalidad de la cámara de comercio respecto de los actos y documentos sujetos a registro? ¿Cuándo existe duda razonable respecto de los elementos formales con base en los que se configuro una decisión pueden constituirse como causal de abstención del registro?

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Evaluation of two methods for computational HLA haplotypes inference using a real dataset

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Evaluation of two methods for computational HLA haplotypes inference using a real dataset

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Estudio molecular en dos hermanas afectadas por ictiosis congénita autosómica recesiva : descripción de una nueva mutación causal en TGM1

Se describe la variante homocigota c.320-2A>G de TGM1 en dos hermanas con ictiosis congénita autosómica recesiva. El clonaje de los transcritos generados por esta variante permitió identificar tres mecanismos moleculares de splicing alternativos.

ANALYSE THE VULNERABILITY IN THE MARANHÃO ILHA, BRAZIL, USING GIS TECHNIQUES AND GEOSPATIAL INFERENCE

Vulnerability and sustainability studies of an area help to assess both its level of exposure and capacity to support possible environmental impacts, and it is of primordial importance for proposals of the Legislation on Zoning, Allotment, Land Use/land cover, aiming to stimulate those areas indicated for urban growth, to discourage growth of overcrowded areas, to detect sections with restrictive use, as well as districts for permanent protection. This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability in the Maranhão Ilha, using GIS techniques, geospatial inference intersected with relevant social-environmental indicators.Estudos de vulnerabilidade e de sustentabilidade de uma área ajudam a avaliar o seu grau de exposição e sua capacidade de suporte a possíveis impactos ambientais, sendo fundamental para propostas de Lei de Zoneamento, Parcelamento, Uso e Ocupação do Solo, tendo por finalidade orientar as áreas onde deverá haver estímulo para o crescimento urbano; contenção da malha urbana; detecção de locais com possibilidade de uso restritivo, bem como locais de proteção permanente. Este trabalho propõe analisar o índice de vulnerabilidade a perda de solo da Ilha do Maranhão com base na metodologia proposta por (CREPANI, et al. 2001) e em técnicas de inferência espacial com apoio na AHP (Análise Hierárquica de Processo).

On Ordinal VC-Dimension and Some Notions of Complexity

We generalize the classical notion of Vapnik–Chernovenkis (VC) dimension to ordinal VC-dimension, in the context of logical learning paradigms. Logical learning paradigms encompass the numerical learning paradigms commonly studied in Inductive Inference. A logical learning paradigm is defined as a set W of structures over some vocabulary, and a set D of first-order formulas that represent data. The sets of models of ϕ in W, where ϕ varies over D, generate a natural topology W over W. We show that if D is closed under boolean operators, then the notion of ordinal VC-dimension offers a perfect characterization for the problem of predicting the truth of the members of D in a member of W, with an ordinal bound on the number of mistakes. This shows that the notion of VC-dimension has a natural interpretation in Inductive Inference, when cast into a logical setting. We also study the relationships between predictive complexity, selective complexity—a variation on predictive complexity—and mind change complexity. The assumptions that D is closed under boolean operators and that W is compact often play a crucial role to establish connections between these concepts. We then consider a computable setting with effective versions of the complexity measures, and show that the equivalence between ordinal VC-dimension and predictive complexity fails. More precisely, we prove that the effective ordinal VC-dimension of a paradigm can be defined when all other effective notions of complexity are undefined. On a better note, when W is compact, all effective notions of complexity are defined, though they are not related as in the noncomputable version of the framework.

Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Six Curses

This creative writing work was selected for publication in a bi-lingual anthology, published in China, as suitable to be culturally applicable to both Chinese and Australian social contexts. The poem raises six social/ethical issues and comments on them. It is based on research into Chinese traditional poetry that focuses on an image, and after each image this poem provides an ethical comment. It is based in the ethical hypothesis that moral evaluation of individual and social behaviour can not be achieved without ethical judgement which questions social norms. In particular, the poem questions the validity of fundamentalism – the belief in religious, scientific and moral absolutes. This is a key issue in contemporary research into the effect of religion on politics. It also draws on contemporary psychological theory, especially the concept of narcissism. The sociological basis of the work is in drawing parallels between eastern and western ethical issues, stressing similarity by inference. The imagery on which the poem is based selects objects such a single ‘stone’ that take on symbolic connotations common to both Australian and Chinese readers. This is innovative, since very little creative writing has been dome to address commonalities between Australian and Chinese ethical thinking, especially by adopting Chinese motifs.

The guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) : applicability and contribution to project success in Australia

The PMBOK Guide is one of the most influential publications concerning the knowledge of the project manangement. Moreover, the pervasion of this guide seems to be set to increase as the basis of accreditation - in conjunction with the increasing global trend toward obtaining project management professional status. However, despite the influence and strengthening profile of this guide, reports continue to be published that detail numerous project failures in a wide range of different industries. The PMBOK Guide comprises mainly declarative (know-what) and procedural (know-how) information. In this sense, the guide is largely normative and provides a very good example of the limitations of this approach as highlighted by proponents of a move to the genuine application of positibe theory in project management.----- The aim of this paper is to determine the applicability of the guide in Australia and to determine the extent to which project success can be attributed to the guide. Project Managers from a variety of organisations were surveyed. This postal survey yielded 48 replies. Descriptive statistics was used to assess the incidence and effectivieness of all the processes in the guide. The results indicate that there were no processes that could be considered as peripheral or as a candidate for elimination from the guide. More specifically, all the processes were identified as either a key routine process or a key selective process and positively related to the level of project success. However, the results also indicated that other major factors pertaining to causal knowledge (know-why) are, at least, equally important determinants of project success. It is concluded that declarative, procedural and causal knowledge are all valuable, and given the preponderance of the first two types of knowledge, there seems to be an urgent need to now ensure an equal quest for causal knowledge. In terms of developing causal knowledge, a good starting point would appear to be both positive theory from production and economics.

Fallen Awake

Photo from process: David Megarrity, albury 2007 - example of convergence of writing/design/perfomance/video RESEARCH COMPONENT Fallen Awake was a practice-led research process that opened the development process to the influence of collaborative authorship across artforms. The project focused on of how multiple artforms and artists converge their vision into a singular text, in the context of collaborative authorship. The work also uncovered new questions relating to the dream-life of children. The stimulus for the work was a selection of verbal statements by three-year-olds, raising complex ethical questions as the project progressed about the child’s voice, mediated by the adult artist, for the eventual presentation to a child audience. With the text emergent and open to influence, this project raised other questions related to the lived experience of children, dreaming, creative play and the development of consciousness. It pushed the creative process to experiment with associative, rather then causal narratives, and to negotiate the challenges this raises for traditional story structures and the development processes that usually shape them. It led to the consideration of each artforms and artist as equal contributors in the development of story: traditionally the province of the sole author. The outcomes appeared in various artforms, none of which was live-performance based. An ‘artist’s book’ by the designer, a ‘video treatment’ - a DVD capturing the approach to the performance and a script for an innovative large-scale performance. Fallen Awake was developed with the assistance of Strut & Fret Production House, Arts Queensland, and HotHouse Theatre, Albury Wodonga, through their ‘Month in the Country’ initiative.

Consumers' emotional appraisals and action tendencies arising from mobile viral marketing

This study examines consumers' emotional responses to receiving viral mobile marketing communications in comparison to receiving mobile marketing communications where permission has not been given. The study also examines the relationship between these experienced emotions and what action tendencies consumers might consider as a result of these emotions, as well as how they attribute causality for their emotions. Using scenarios in an experimental design, the findings show that there are differences in consumer emotions as a result of the two marketing approaches. The findings also identify relationships between consumers' causal attributions and action tendencies in relation to themselves, the friend sending the viral m-marketing communication and the company involved.