Forecast calibration and combination: a simple Bayesian approach for ENSO

This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecasts were obtained by linear regression between December and the preceding July Niño-3.4 index values over the period 1950–2001. Coupled model ensemble forecasts for the period 1987–99 were provided by ECMWF, as part of the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. Empirical and raw coupled model ensemble forecasts alone have similar mean absolute error forecast skill score, compared to climatological forecasts, of around 50% over the period 1987–99. The combined forecast gives an increased skill score of 74% and provides a well-calibrated and reliable estimate of forecast uncertainty.

Electrochemical determination of plant-derived leuco-indigo after chemical reduction by glucose

Electrochemical determination of redox active dye species is demonstrated in indigo samples contaminated with high levels of organic and inorganic impurities. The use of a hydrodynamic electrode system based on a vibrating probe (250 Hz, 200 mu m lateral amplitude) allows time-independent diffusion controlled signals to be enhanced and reliable concentration data to be obtained under steady state conditions at relatively fast scan rates up to 4 V s-1In this work the indigo content of a complex plant-derived indigo sample (dye content typically 30%) is determined after indigo is reduced by addition of glucose in aqueous 0.2 M NaOH. The soluble leuco-indigo is measured by its oxidation response at a vibrating electrode. The vibrating electrode, which consisted of a laterally vibrating 500 mu m diameter gold disc, is calibrated with Fe(CN)(6) 3-/4- in 0.1 M KCl and employed for indigo determination at 55, 65, and 75 C in 0.2 M NaOH. Determinations of the indigo content of 25 different samples of plant-derived indigo are compared with those obtained by conventional spectrophotometry. This comparison suggests a significant improvement by the electrochemical method, which appears to be less sensitive to impurities.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

The timing of eukaryotic evolution: Does a relaxed molecular clock reconcile proteins and fossils?

The use of nucleotide and amino acid sequences allows improved understanding of the timing of evolutionary events of life on earth. Molecular estimates of divergence times are, however, controversial and are generally much more ancient than suggested by the fossil record. The limited number of genes and species explored and pervasive variations in evolutionary rates are the most likely sources of such discrepancies. Here we compared concatenated amino acid sequences of 129 proteins from 36 eukaryotes to determine the divergence times of several major clades, including animals, fungi, plants, and various protists. Due to significant variations in their evolutionary rates, and to handle the uncertainty of the fossil record, we used a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock simultaneously calibrated by six paleontological constraints. We show that, according to 95% credibility intervals, the eukaryotic kingdoms diversified 950-1,259 million years ago (Mya), animals diverged from choanoflagellates 761-957 Mya, and the debated age of the split between protostomes and deuterostomes occurred 642-761 Mya. The divergence times appeared to be robust with respect to prior assumptions and paleontological calibrations. Interestingly, these relaxed clock time estimates are much more recent than those obtained under the assumption of a global molecular clock, yet bilaterian diversification appears to be approximate to100 million years more ancient than the Cambrian boundary.

Measurement of ionic calcium in milk

There are many reports in the literature regarding the effects of ionic calcium on reactions related to casein micelle stability, such as heat stability, ethanol stability and susceptibility to gelation, sediment formation and fouling. However, experimental evidence supporting these assertions is much less readily available. This paper evaluates three selective ion electrode systems for measuring ionic calcium directly in milk as well as looking at the effects on pH reduction and addition of calcium chloride. The best electrode system was the Ciba Corning 634 system, which was designed for blood but has been modified for milk. This was found to be reproducible and stable when calibrated daily and allowed direct measurements to be taken on milk in 70 s. This has been found to perform well now for 3 years. The other systems were not so useful, as they took longer to stabilize, but may be useful for higher ionic calcium concentrations, which are found in acidified milk products. Reducing the pH increased ionic calcium and reduced ethanol stability. Calcium chloride addition reduced pH, increased ionic calcium and reduced the ethanol stability. Readjusting the pH to its value before calcium addition reduced the ionic calcium, but not back to its original value. Milks from individual cows showed wide variations in their ionic calcium concentrations. This establishes the methodology for a more detailed investigation on measurement of ionic calcium in milks from individual cows and from bulk milks, to allow a better understanding of its role in casein micelle stability.

Neural mechanisms of visual object priming: evidence for perceptual and semantic distinctions in fusiform cortex

Previous functional imaging studies have shown that facilitated processing of a visual object on repeated, relative to initial, presentation (i.e., repetition priming) is associated with reductions in neural activity in multiple regions, including fusiforin/lateral occipital cortex. Moreover, activity reductions have been found, at diminished levels, when a different exemplar of an object is presented on repetition. In one previous study, the magnitude of diminished priming across exemplars was greater in the right relative to the left fusiform, suggesting greater exemplar specificity in the right. Another previous study, however, observed fusiform lateralization modulated by object viewpoint, but not object exemplar. The present fMRI study sought to determine whether the result of differential fusiform responses for perceptually different exemplars could be replicated. Furthermore, the role of the left fusiform cortex in object recognition was investigated via the inclusion of a lexical/semantic manipulation. Right fusiform cortex showed a significantly greater effect of exemplar change than left fusiform, replicating the previous result of exemplar-specific fusiform lateralization. Right fusiform and lateral occipital cortex were not differentially engaged by the lexical/semantic manipulation, suggesting that their role in visual object recognition is predominantly in the. C visual discrimination of specific objects. Activation in left fusiform cortex, but not left lateral occipital cortex, was modulated by both exemplar change and lexical/semantic manipulation, with further analysis suggesting a posterior-to-anterior progression between regions involved in processing visuoperceptual and lexical/semantic information about objects. The results are consistent with the view that the right fusiform plays a greater role in processing specific visual form information about objects, whereas the left fusiform is also involved in lexical/semantic processing. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

The neural response to emotional prosody, as revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging

Prosody is an important feature of language, comprising intonation, loudness, and tempo. Emotional prosodic processing forms an integral part of our social interactions. The main aim of this study was to use bold contrast fMRI to clarify the normal functional neuroanatomy of emotional prosody, in passive and active contexts. Subjects performed six separate scanning studies, within which two different conditions were contrasted: (1) "pure" emotional prosody versus rest; (2) congruent emotional prosody versus 'neutral' sentences; (3) congruent emotional prosody versus rest; (4) incongruent emotional prosody versus rest; (5) congruent versus incongruent emotional prosody; and (6) an active experiment in which subjects were instructed to either attend to the emotion conveyed by semantic content or that conveyed by tone of voice. Data resulting from these contrasts were analysed using SPM99. Passive listening to emotional prosody consistently activated the lateral temporal lobe (superior and/or middle temporal gyri). This temporal lobe response was relatively right-lateralised with or without semantic information. Both the separate and direct comparisons of congruent and incongruent emotional prosody revealed that subjects used fewer brain regions to process incongruent emotional prosody than congruent. The neural response to attention to semantics, was left lateralised, and recruited an extensive network not activated by attention to emotional prosody. Attention to emotional prosody modulated the response to speech, and induced right-lateralised activity, including the middle temporal gyrus. In confirming the results of lesion and neuropsychological studies, the current study emphasises the importance of the right hemisphere in the processing of emotional prosody, specifically the lateral temporal lobes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The BOLD response during Stroop task-like inhibition paradigms: effects of task difficulty and task-relevant modality

Previous studies of the Stroop task propose two key mediators: the prefrontal and cingulate cortices but hints exist of functional specialization within these regions. This study aimed to examine the effect of task modality upon the prefrontal and cingulate response by examining the response to colour, number, and shape Stroop tasks whilst BOLD fMRI images were acquired on a Siemens 3 T MRI scanner. Behavioural analyses indicated facilitation and interference effects and a noticeable effect of task difficulty. Some modular effects of modality were observed in the prefrontal cortex that survived exclusion of task difficulty related activations. No effect of task-relevant information was observed in the anterior cingulate. Future comparisons of the mediation of selective attention need to consider the effects of task context and task difficulty. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regulation of the neural circuitry of emotion by compassion meditation: effects of meditative expertise

Recent brain imaging studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have implicated insula and anterior cingulate cortices in the empathic response to another's pain. However, virtually nothing is known about the impact of the voluntary generation of compassion on this network. To investigate these questions we assessed brain activity using fMRI while novice and expert meditation practitioners generated a loving-kindness-compassion meditation state. To probe affective reactivity, we presented emotional and neutral sounds during the meditation and comparison periods. Our main hypothesis was that the concern for others cultivated during this form of meditation enhances affective processing, in particular in response to sounds of distress, and that this response to emotional sounds is modulated by the degree of meditation training. The presentation of the emotional sounds was associated with increased pupil diameter and activation of limbic regions (insula and cingulate cortices) during meditation (versus rest). During meditation, activation in insula was greater during presentation of negative sounds than positive or neutral sounds in expert than it was in novice meditators. The strength of activation in insula was also associated with self-reported intensity of the meditation for both groups. These results support the role of the limbic circuitry in emotion sharing. The comparison between meditation vs. rest states between experts and novices also showed increased activation in amygdala, right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), and right posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS) in response to all sounds, suggesting, greater detection of the emotional sounds, and enhanced mentation in response to emotional human vocalizations for experts than novices during meditation. Together these data indicate that the mental expertise to cultivate positive emotion alters the activation of circuitries previously linked to empathy and theory of mind in response to emotional stimuli.

Prefrontal social cognition network dysfunction underlying face encoding and social anxiety in fragile X syndrome

Individuals with fragile X syndrome (FXS) commonly display characteristics of social anxiety, including gaze aversion, increased time to initiate social interaction, and difficulty forming meaningful peer relationships. While neural correlates of face processing, an important component of social interaction, are altered in FXS, studies have not examined whether social anxiety in this population is related to higher cognitive processes, such as memory. This study aimed to determine whether the neural circuitry involved in face encoding was disrupted in individuals with FXS, and whether brain activity during face encoding was related to levels of social anxiety. A group of 11 individuals with FXS (5 M) and 11 age-and gender-matched control participants underwent fMRI scanning while performing a face encoding task with onlineeye-tracking. Results indicate that compared to the control group, individuals with FXS exhibited decreased activation of prefrontal regions associated with complex social cognition, including the medial and superior frontal cortex, during successful face encoding. Further, the FXS and control groups showed significantly different relationships between measures of social anxiety (including gaze-fixation) and brain activity during face encoding. These data indicate that social anxiety in FXS may be related to the inability to successfully recruit higher level social cognition regions during the initial phases of memory formation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceiving time to collision activates the sensorimotor cortex

The survival of many animals hinges upon their ability to avoid collisions with other animals or objects or to precisely control the timing of collisions. Optical expansion provides a compelling impression of object approach and in principle can provide the basis for judgments of time to collision (TTC) [1]. It has been demonstrated that pigeons [2] and houseflies [3] have neural systems that can initiate rapid coordinated actions on the basis of optical expansion. In the case of humans, the linkage between judgments of TTC and coordinated action has not been established at a cortical level. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we identified superior-parietal and motor-cortex areas that are selectively active during perceptual TTC judgments, some of which are normally involved in producing reach-to-grasp responses. These activations could not be attributed to actual movement of participants. We demonstrate that networks involved in the computational problem of extracting TTC from expansion information have close correspondence with the sensorimotor systems that would be involved in preparing a timed motor response, such as catching a ball or avoiding collision.

An automated calibration method for non-see-through head mounted displays

Accurate calibration of a head mounted display (HMD) is essential both for research on the visual system and for realistic interaction with virtual objects. Yet, existing calibration methods are time consuming and depend on human judgements, making them error prone. The methods are also limited to optical see-through HMDs. Building on our existing HMD calibration method [1], we show here how it is possible to calibrate a non-see-through HMD. A camera is placed inside an HMD displaying an image of a regular grid, which is captured by the camera. The HMD is then removed and the camera, which remains fixed in position, is used to capture images of a tracked calibration object in various positions. The locations of image features on the calibration object are then re-expressed in relation to the HMD grid. This allows established camera calibration techniques to be used to recover estimates of the display’s intrinsic parameters (width, height, focal length) and extrinsic parameters (optic centre and orientation of the principal ray). We calibrated a HMD in this manner in both see-through and in non-see-through modes and report the magnitude of the errors between real image features and reprojected features. Our calibration method produces low reprojection errors and involves no error-prone human measurements.

Eye gaze in virtual environments: evaluating the need and initial work on implementation

For efficient collaboration between participants, eye gaze is seen as being critical for interaction. Video conferencing either does not attempt to support eye gaze (e.g. AcessGrid) or only approximates it in round table conditions (e.g. life size telepresence). Immersive collaborative virtual environments represent remote participants through avatars that follow their tracked movements. By additionally tracking people's eyes and representing their movement on their avatars, the line of gaze can be faithfully reproduced, as opposed to approximated. This paper presents the results of initial work that tested if the focus of gaze could be more accurately gauged if tracked eye movement was added to that of the head of an avatar observed in an immersive VE. An experiment was conducted to assess the difference between user's abilities to judge what objects an avatar is looking at with only head movements being displayed, while the eyes remained static, and with eye gaze and head movement information being displayed. The results from the experiment show that eye gaze is of vital importance to the subjects correctly identifying what a person is looking at in an immersive virtual environment. This is followed by a description of the work that is now being undertaken following the positive results from the experiment. We discuss the integration of an eye tracker more suitable for immersive mobile use and the software and techniques that were developed to integrate the user's real-world eye movements into calibrated eye gaze in an immersive virtual world. This is to be used in the creation of an immersive collaborative virtual environment supporting eye gaze and its ongoing experiments. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic modulation of human motor activity when observing actions

Previous studies have demonstrated that when we observe somebody else executing an action many areas of our own motor systems are active. It has been argued that these motor activations are evidence that we motorically simulate observed actions; this motoric simulation may support various functions such as imitation and action understanding. However, whether motoric simulation is indeed the function of motor activations during action observation is controversial, due to inconsistency in findings. Previous studies have demonstrated dynamic modulations in motor activity when we execute actions. Therefore, if we do motorically simulate observed actions, our motor systems should also be modulated dynamically, and in a corresponding fashion, during action observation. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), we recorded the cortical activity of human participants while they observed actions performed by another person. Here, we show that activity in the human motor system is indeed modulated dynamically during action observation. The finding that activity in the motor system is modulated dynamically when observing actions can explain why studies of action observation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have reported conflicting results, and is consistent with the hypothesis that we motorically simulate observed actions.

Principles and calibration of solid phase microextraction fibre (passive sampler) for measurements of airflow and air infiltration in dwellings

Tracer gas techniques have been the most appropriate experimental method of determining airflows and ventilation rates in houses. However, current trends to reduce greenhouse gas effects have prompted the need for alternative techniques, such as passive sampling. In this research passive sampling techniques have been used to demonstrate the potential to fulfil these requirements by using solutions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and solid phase microextraction (SPME) fibres. These passive sampling techniques have been calibrated against tracer gas decay techniques and measurements from a standard orifice plate. Two constant sources of volatile organic compounds were diffused into two sections of a humidity chamber and sampled using SPME fibres. From a total of four SPME fibres (two in each section), reproducible results were obtained. Emission rates and air movement from one section to the other were predicted using developed algorithms. Comparison of the SPME fibre technique with that of the tracer gas technique and measurements from an orifice plate showed similar results with good precision and accuracy. With these fibres, infiltration rates can be measured over grab samples in a time weighted averaged period lasting from 10 minutes up to several days. Key words: passive samplers, solid phase microextraction fibre, tracer gas techniques, airflow, air infiltration, houses.