Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

Programme cantonal vaudois de dépistage du cancer colorectal: information et décision partagée [Shared decision making in the colorectal cancer screening program in the canton of Vaud].

Le programme cantonal vaudois de dépistage du cancer colorectal vise à faciliter ce dépistage pour la population de 50 à 69 ans. Les deux modalités retenues sont la recherche immunologique de sang dans les selles (FIT) et la coloscopie. La décision de réaliser un test de dépistage et la modalité de dépistage s'appuient sur une consultation individuelle avec un médecin de famille. L'assurance de base prend en charge le remboursement. Le programme vaudois permet l'exemption de la franchise pour la consultation médicale d'information et les deux modalités de dépistage, ainsi que pour la coloscopie de confirmation en cas de test FIT positif. La quote-part de 10 % reste à charge des participants. Des outils de communication ont été développés pour faciliter un entretien de décision partagée dans le cadre d'une consultation médicale. The colorectal cancer screening program of the canton of Vaud aims to facilitate screening for this cancer for the population aged 50 to 69 years old. The two screening modalities offered are fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and colonoscopy. The decision to undergo screening and the screening modality is based on an individual medical encounter with a primary care physician. Both screening modalities are reimbursed through basic health coverage in Switzerland. The participation to the screening program allows the exemption of the deductible for the medical encounter and the chosen screening modality. A copay of 10% is maintained for all costs. Communication tools were developed on the basis of recommendations in the literature to facilitate shared decision-making in a medical encounter.

The influence of decision-maker effort and case complexity on appealed rulings subject to multi-categorical selection

This study extends the standard econometric treatment of appellate court outcomes by 1) considering the role of decision-maker effort and case complexity, and 2) adopting a multi-categorical selection process of appealed cases. We find evidence of appellate courts being affected by both the effort made by first-stage decision makers and case complexity. This illustrates the value of widening the narrowly defined focus on heterogeneity in individual-specific preferences that characterises many applied studies on legal decision-making. Further, the majority of appealed cases represent non-random sub-samples and the multi-categorical selection process appears to offer advantages over the more commonly used dichotomous selection models.

Statines en prévention primaire: comment décider avec le patient [Statins in primary prevention: how to share the decision?].

Long-term treatment of hypercholesterolemia with statins diminishes the risk of cardiovascular events. Statins are recommended in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In the absence of preexisting cardiovascular disease, the decision to start a statin or not is most often made by the general practitioner and his patient. An interactive decision aid, developed by the Mayo Clinic, has just been translated in French and adapted to the Swiss epidemiology of cardiovascular risk factors, with the aim of promoting shared decision-making. This paper reviews the conditions and potential benefits of shared decision-making about statin therapy in primary prevention.

Cost-minimization analysis of three decision strategies for cardiac revascularization : results of the "suspected CAD"cohort of the european cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to be one of the top public health burden. Perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted to detect CAD, while data on its cost effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the goal of the study was to compare the costs of a CMR-guided strategy vs two invasive strategies in a large CMR registry. METHODS: In 3'647 patients with suspected CAD of the EuroCMR-registry (59 centers/18 countries) costs were calculated for diagnostic examinations (CMR, X-ray coronary angiography (CXA) with/without FFR), revascularizations, and complications during a 1-year follow-up. Patients with ischemia-positive CMR underwent an invasive CXA and revascularization at the discretion of the treating physician (=CMR + CXA-strategy). In the hypothetical invasive arm, costs were calculated for an initial CXA and a FFR in vessels with ≥50 % stenoses (=CXA + FFR-strategy) and the same proportion of revascularizations and complications were applied as in the CMR + CXA-strategy. In the CXA-only strategy, costs included those for CXA and for revascularizations of all ≥50 % stenoses. To calculate the proportion of patients with ≥50 % stenoses, the stenosis-FFR relationship from the literature was used. Costs of the three strategies were determined based on a third payer perspective in 4 healthcare systems. RESULTS: Revascularizations were performed in 6.2 %, 4.5 %, and 12.9 % of all patients, patients with atypical chest pain (n = 1'786), and typical angina (n = 582), respectively; whereas complications (=all-cause death and non-fatal infarction) occurred in 1.3 %, 1.1 %, and 1.5 %, respectively. The CMR + CXA-strategy reduced costs by 14 %, 34 %, 27 %, and 24 % in the German, UK, Swiss, and US context, respectively, when compared to the CXA + FFR-strategy; and by 59 %, 52 %, 61 % and 71 %, respectively, versus the CXA-only strategy. In patients with typical angina, cost savings by CMR + CXA vs CXA + FFR were minimal in the German (2.3 %), intermediate in the US and Swiss (11.6 % and 12.8 %, respectively), and remained substantial in the UK (18.9 %) systems. Sensitivity analyses proved the robustness of results. CONCLUSIONS: A CMR + CXA-strategy for patients with suspected CAD provides substantial cost reduction compared to a hypothetical CXA + FFR-strategy in patients with low to intermediate disease prevalence. However, in the subgroup of patients with typical angina, cost savings were only minimal to moderate.

Tracking Invasion Histories in the Sea: Facing Complex Scenarios Using Multilocus Data

In recent years, new analytical tools have allowed researchers to extract historical information contained in molecular data, which has fundamentally transformed our understanding of processes ruling biological invasions. However, the use of these new analytical tools has been largely restricted to studies of terrestrial organisms despite the growing recognition that the sea contains ecosystems that are amongst the most heavily affected by biological invasions, and that marine invasion histories are often remarkably complex. Here, we studied the routes of invasion and colonisation histories of an invasive marine invertebrate Microcosmus squamiger (Ascidiacea) using microsatellite loci, mitochondrial DNA sequence data and 11 worldwide populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components, clustering methods and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods showed that the most likely source of the introduced populations was a single admixture event that involved populations from two genetically differentiated ancestral regions - the western and eastern coasts of Australia. The ABC analyses revealed that colonisation of the introduced range of M. squamiger consisted of a series of non-independent introductions along the coastlines of Africa, North America and Europe. Furthermore, we inferred that the sequence of colonisation across continents was in line with historical taxonomic records - first the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa from an unsampled ancestral population, followed by sequential introductions in California and, more recently, the NE Atlantic Ocean. We revealed the most likely invasion history for world populations of M. squamiger, which is broadly characterized by the presence of multiple ancestral sources and non-independent introductions within the introduced range. The results presented here illustrate the complexity of marine invasion routes and identify a cause-effect relationship between human-mediated transport and the success of widespread marine non-indigenous species, which benefit from stepping-stone invasions and admixture processes involving different sources for the spread and expansion of their range.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

Moderate glycemic control safe in critically ill adult burn patients: A 15 year cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperglycemia is a metabolic alteration in major burn patients associated with complications. The study aimed at evaluating the safety of general ICU glucose control protocols applied in major burns receiving prolonged ICU treatment. METHODS: 15year retrospective analysis of consecutive, adult burn patients admitted to a single specialized centre. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: death or length of stay <10 days, age <16years. VARIABLES: demographic variables, burned surface (TBSA), severity scores, infections, ICU stay, outcome. Metabolic variables: total energy, carbohydrate and insulin delivery/24h, arterial blood glucose and CRP values. Analysis of 4 periods: 1, before protocol; 2, tight doctor driven; 3, tight nurse driven; 4, moderate nurse driven. RESULTS: 229 patients, aged 45±20 years (mean±SD), burned 32±20% TBSA were analyzed. SAPSII was 35±13. TBSA, Ryan and ABSI remained stable. Inhalation injury increased. A total of 28,690 blood glucose samples were analyzed: the median value remained unchanged with a narrower distribution over time. After the protocol initiation, the normoglycemic values increased from 34.7% to 65.9%, with a reduction of hypoglycaemic events (no extreme hypoglycemia in period 4). Severe hyperglycemia persisted throughout with a decrease in period 4 (9.25% in period 4). Energy and glucose deliveries decreased in periods 3 and 4 (p<0.0001). Infectious complications increased during the last 2 periods (p=0.01). CONCLUSION: A standardized ICU glucose control protocol improved the glycemic control in adult burn patients, reducing glucose variability. Moderate glycemic control in burns was safe specifically related to hypoglycemia, reducing the incidence of hypoglycaemic events compared to the period before. Hyperglycemia persisted at a lower level.