Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution.

Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

Black Forest Magic

Duo Show: John Russell & Dan Mitchell.

The political economy of bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain

A brief history of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and its control in Great Britain is presented. Numerous diverse policies to control the disease in man, cattle and wildlife have been pursued over the last 100 years and many millions of pounds have been spent. After notable success in reducing the incidence and prevalence of bTB in cattle in GB from the 1950s to the mid-1980s, the number of cattle slaughtered has increased with increased geographical spread continually since that time with a high point of bTB incidence in 2008. This increase appeared to coincide with changing policy regarding the control of the disease in badgers with a more humane approach adopted and with strengthened protection for badgers through legislation. Indeed, much controversy has been involved in the debate on the role of badgers in disease transmission to cattle and the need for their control as vectors of the disease with various commissioned research projects, trials, public consultations and media attention. The findings of two social science investigations presented as examples showed that citizens generally believed that bTB in cattle is an important issue that needs to be tackled but objected to badgers being killed, whilst cattle farmers were willing to pay around £17/animal/year for a bTB cattle vaccine. It is noted that successes regarding the control of bTB in other countries have combined both cattle and wildlife controls and had strong involvement from industry working with government.

Response of black oats (Avena strigosa Schreb) on the aspersion irrigation and nitrogen fertilization

The objective of the study was assessing the effect of the nitrogen and the aspersion irrigation on the growth and dry matter yield of black oats (Avena strigosa Schreb). The experiment was conducted in the Campus of USP in Pirassununga, Sao Paulo State. In the study were evaluated four nitrogen levels (0, 50, 100 and 150 kg of N ha(-1)) and also the presence or absence of the irrigation. The plant variables evaluated were: mean height, dry matter percentage, yield and growth rate. The results had disclosed to greater height of plant in the irrigated condition, reflecting in the higher production of dry matter. In dry land area, percentage of DM was 24.7% and in irrigated area 18.7%. The nitrogen was significantly only for plant mean height that showed linear fit when carried through the irrigation. The effect of the irrigation was better for the production of black oats than nitrogen.

Evolution of primordial black holes in a radiation and phantom energy environment

In this work we extend previous work on the evolution of a primordial black hole (PBH) to address the presence of a dark energy component with a super-negative equation of state as a background, investigating the competition between the radiation accretion, the Hawking evaporation and the phantom accretion, the latter two causing a decrease on black hole mass. It is found that there is an instant during the matter-dominated era after which the radiation accretion becomes negligible compared to the phantom accretion. The Hawking evaporation may become important again depending on a mass threshold. The evaporation of PBHs is quite modified at late times by these effects, but only if the generalized second law of thermodynamics is violated.

Analytical solutions of accreting black holes immersed in a Lambda CDM model

The evolution of the mass of a black hole embedded in a universe filled with dark energy and cold dark matter is calculated in a closed form within a test fluid model in a Schwarzschild metric, taking into account the cosmological evolution of both fluids. The result describes exactly how accretion asymptotically switches from the matter-dominated to the Lambda-dominated regime. For early epochs, the black hole mass increases due to dark matter accretion, and on later epochs the increase in mass stops as dark energy accretion takes over. Thus, the unphysical behaviour of previous analyses is improved in this simple exact model. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ACCRETION MECHANISMS ONTO PRIMORDIAL BLACK HOLES

We study the evolution of a primordial black hole (PBH) taking into account the presence of dark energy modeled by a general perfect fluid. In the specific case of a stationary non-self-gravitating test fluid, the competition between radiation accretion, Hawking evaporation and the accretion of such a fluid has been studied in detail. The evaporation of PBHs is quite modified at late times by these effects. We address further generalizations of this scenario to consider other types of fluids, and point out early developments of a nonstationary accretion model.

Landscape perception by forest understory birds in the Atlantic Rainforest: black-and-white versus shades of grey

Even among forest specialists, species-specific responses to anthropogenic forest fragmentation may vary considerably. Some appear to be confined to forest interiors, and perceive a fragmented landscape as a mosaic of suitable fragments and hostile matrix. Others, however, are able to make use of matrix habitats and perceive the landscape in shades of grey rather than black-and-white. We analysed data of 42 Chiroxiphia caudata (Blue Manakin), 10 Pyriglena leucoptera (White-shouldered Fire-eye) and 19 Sclerurus scansor (Rufous-breasted Leaftosser) radio-tracked in the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil between 2003 and 2005. We illustrate how habitat preferences may determine how species respond to or perceive the landscape structure. We compared available with used habitat to develop a species-specific preference index for each of six habitat classes. All three species preferred old forest, but relative use of other classes differed significantly. S. scansor perceived great contrast between old forest and matrix, whereas the other two species perceived greater habitat continuity. For conservation planning, our study offers three important messages: (1) some forest specialist species are able to persist in highly fragmented landscapes; (2) some forest species may be able to make use of different anthropogenic habitat types to various degrees; whereas (3) others are restricted to the remaining forest fragments. Our study suggests species most confined to forest interiors to be considered as potential umbrella species for landscape-scale conservation planning.

Black-box decomposition approach for computational hemodynamics: One-dimensional models

Increasing efforts exist in integrating different levels of detail in models of the cardiovascular system. For instance, one-dimensional representations are employed to model the systemic circulation. In this context, effective and black-box-type decomposition strategies for one-dimensional networks are needed, so as to: (i) employ domain decomposition strategies for large systemic models (1D-1D coupling) and (ii) provide the conceptual basis for dimensionally-heterogeneous representations (1D-3D coupling, among various possibilities). The strategy proposed in this article works for both of these two scenarios, though the several applications shown to illustrate its performance focus on the 1D-1D coupling case. A one-dimensional network is decomposed in such a way that each coupling point connects two (and not more) of the sub-networks. At each of the M connection points two unknowns are defined: the flow rate and pressure. These 2M unknowns are determined by 2M equations, since each sub-network provides one (non-linear) equation per coupling point. It is shown how to build the 2M x 2M non-linear system with arbitrary and independent choice of boundary conditions for each of the sub-networks. The idea is then to solve this non-linear system until convergence, which guarantees strong coupling of the complete network. In other words, if the non-linear solver converges at each time step, the solution coincides with what would be obtained by monolithically modeling the whole network. The decomposition thus imposes no stability restriction on the choice of the time step size. Effective iterative strategies for the non-linear system that preserve the black-box character of the decomposition are then explored. Several variants of matrix-free Broyden`s and Newton-GMRES algorithms are assessed as numerical solvers by comparing their performance on sub-critical wave propagation problems which range from academic test cases to realistic cardiovascular applications. A specific variant of Broyden`s algorithm is identified and recommended on the basis of its computer cost and reliability. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fermion perturbations in string theory black holes

In this paper we study fermion perturbations in four-dimensional black holes of string theory, obtained either from a non-extreme configuration of three intersecting five-branes with a boost along the common string or from a non-extreme intersecting system of two two-branes and two five-branes. The Dirac equation for the massless neutrino field, after conformal re-scaling of the metric, is written as a wave equation suitable to study the time evolution of the perturbation. We perform a numerical integration of the evolution equation, and with the aid of Prony fitting of the time-domain profile, we calculate the complex frequencies that dominate the quasinormal ringing stage, and also determine these quantities by the semi-analytical sixth-order WKB method. We also find numerically the decay factor of fermion fields at very late times, and show that the falloff is identical to those showing for massless fields in other four-dimensional black hole spacetimes.

Quasinormal modes of semiclassical electrically charged black holes

We report the results concerning the influence of vacuum polarization due to quantum massive vector, scalar and spinor fields on the scalar sector of quasinormal modes in spherically symmetric charged black holes. The vacuum polarization from quantized fields produces a shift in the values of the quasinormal frequencies, and correspondingly the semiclassical system becomes a better oscillator with respect to the classical Reissner-Nordstrom black hole.

Phantom accretion by black holes and the generalized second law of thermodynamics

The accretion of a phantom fluid with non-zero chemical potential by black holes is discussed with basis on the generalized second law of thermodynamics. For phantom fluids with positive temperature and negative chemical potential we demonstrate that the accretion process is possible, and that the condition guaranteeing the positiveness of the phantom fluid entropy coincides with the one required by the generalized second law. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.