A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Mathematical relationships for metal build-up on urban road surfaces based on traffic and land use characteristics

The study investigated the influence of traffic and land use parameters on metal build-up on urban road surfaces. Mathematical relationships were developed to predict metals originating from fuel combustion and vehicle wear. The analysis undertaken found that nickel and chromium originate from exhaust emissions, lead, copper and zinc from vehicle wear, cadmium from both exhaust and wear and manganese from geogenic sources. Land use does not demonstrate a clear pattern in relation to the metal build-up process, though its inherent characteristics such as traffic activities exert influence. The equation derived for fuel related metal load has high cross-validated coefficient of determination (Q2) and low Standard Error of Cross-Validation (SECV) values indicates that the model is reliable, while the equation derived for wear-related metal load has low Q2 and high SECV values suggesting its use only in preliminary investigations. Relative Prediction Error values for both equations are considered to be well within the error limits for a complex system such as an urban road surface. These equations will be beneficial for developing reliable stormwater treatment strategies in urban areas which specifically focus on mitigation of metal pollution.

Time as the critical factor in the investigation of the relationship between pollutant wash-off and rainfall characteristics

The approach adopted for investigating the relationship between rainfall characteristics and pollutant wash-off process is commonly based on the use of parameters which represent the entire rainfall event. This does not permit the investigation of the influence of rainfall characteristics on different sectors of the wash-off process such as first flush where there is a high pollutant wash-off load at the initial stage of the runoff event. This research study analysed the influence of rainfall characteristics on the pollutant wash-off process using two sets of innovative parameters by partitioning wash-off and rainfall characteristics. It was found that the initial 10% of the wash-off process is closely linked to runoff volume related rainfall parameters including rainfall depth and rainfall duration while the remaining part of the wash-off process is primarily influenced by kinetic energy related rainfall parameters, namely, rainfall intensity. These outcomes prove that different sectors of the wash-off process are influenced by different segments of a rainfall event.

Sectional analysis of the pollutant wash-off process based on runoff hydrograph

The validity of using rainfall characteristics as lumped parameters for investigating the pollutant wash-off process such as first flush occurrence is questionable. This research study introduces an innovative concept of using sector parameters to investigate the relationship between the pollutant wash-off process and different sectors of the runoff hydrograph and rainfall hyetograph. The research outcomes indicated that rainfall depth and rainfall intensity are two key rainfall characteristics which influence the wash-off process compared to the antecedent dry period. Additionally, the rainfall pattern also plays a critical role in the wash-off process and is independent of the catchment characteristics. The knowledge created through this research study provides the ability to select appropriate rainfall events for stormwater quality treatment design based on the required treatment outcomes such as the need to target different sectors of the runoff hydrograph or pollutant species. The study outcomes can also contribute to enhancing stormwater quality modelling and prediction in view of the fact that conventional approaches to stormwater quality estimation is primarily based on rainfall intensity rather than considering other rainfall parameters or solely based on stochastic approaches irrespective of the characteristics of the rainfall event.

Variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in the urban environment

Urban road dust comprises of a range of potentially toxic metal elements and plays a critical role in degrading urban receiving water quality. Hence, assessing the metal composition and concentration in urban road dust is a high priority. This study investigated the variability of metal composition and concentrations in road dust in 4 different urban land uses in Gold Coast, Australia. Samples from 16 road sites were collected and tested for selected 12 metal species. The data set was analyzed using both univariate and multivariate techniques. Outcomes of the data analysis revealed that the metal concentrations in road dust differ considerably within and between different land uses. Iron, aluminum, magnesium and zinc are the most abundant in urban land uses. It was also noted that metal species such as titanium, nickel, copper and zinc have the highest concentrations in industrial land use. The study outcomes revealed that soil and traffic related sources as key sources of metals deposited on road surfaces.

Multidirectional effects of Sr, Mg and Si-containing bioceramic coatings with high bonding strength on inflammation, osteoclastogenesis and osteogenesis

Ideal coating materials for implants should be able to induce excellent osseointegration, which requires several important parameters, such as good bonding strength, limited inflammatory reaction, balanced osteoclastogenesis and osteogenesis, to gain well-functioning coated implants with long-term life span after implantation. Bioactive elements, like Sr, Mg and Si, have been found to play important roles in regulating the biological responses. It is of great interest to combine bioactive elements for developing bioactive coatings on Ti-6Al-4V orthopedic implants to elicit multidirectional effects on the osseointegration. In this study, Sr, Mg and Si-containing bioactive Sr2MgSi2O7 (SMS) ceramic coatings on Ti-6Al-4V were successfully prepared by plasma-spray coating method. The prepared SMS coatings have significantly higher bonding strength (~37MPa) than conventional pure hydroxyapatite (HA) coatings (mostly in the range of 15-25 MPa). It was also found that the prepared SMS coatings switch the macrophage phenotype into M2 extreme, inhibiting the inflammatory reaction via the inhibition of Wnt5A/Ca2+ and Toll-like receptor (TLR) pathways of macrophages. In addition, the osteoclastic activities were also inhibited by SMS coatings. The expression of osteoclastogenesis related genes (RANKL and MCSF) in bone marrow derived mesenchymal cells (BMSCs) with the involvement of macrophages was decreased, while OPG expression was enhanced on SMS coatings compared to HA coatings, indicating that SMS coatings also downregulated the osteoclastogenesis. However, the osteogenic differentiation of BMSCs with the involvement of macrophages was comparable between SMS and HA coatings. Therefore, the prepared SMS coatings showed multidirectional effects, such as improving bonding strength, reducing inflammatory reaction and downregulating osteoclastic activities, but maintaining a comparable osteogenesis, as compared with HA coatings. The combination of bioactive elements of Sr, Mg and Si into bioceramic coatings can be a promising method to develop bioactive implants with multifunctional properties for orthopaedic application.

A bi-lineage conducive scaffold for osteochondral defect regeneration

Because cartilage and bone tissues have different lineage-specific biological properties, it is challenging to fabricate a single type of scaffold that can biologically fulfill the requirements for regeneration of these two lineages simultaneously within osteochondral defects. To overcome this challenge, a lithium-containing mesoporous bioglass (Li-MBG) scaffold is developed. The efficacy and mechanism of Li-MBG for regeneration of osteochondral defects are systematically investigated. Histological and micro-CT results show that Li-MBG scaffolds significantly enhance the regeneration of subchondral bone and hyaline cartilage-like tissues as compared to pure MBG scaffolds, upon implantation in rabbit osteochondral defects for 8 and 16 weeks. Further investigation demonstrates that the released Li+ ions from the Li-MBG scaffolds may play a key role in stimulating the regeneration of osteochondral defects. The corresponding mechanistic pathways involve Li+ ions enhancing the proliferation and osteogenic differentiation of bone mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) through activation of the Wnt signalling pathway, as well as Li+ ions protecting chondrocytes and cartilage tissues from the inflammatory osteoarthritis (OA) environment through activation of autophagy. These findings suggest that the incorporation of Li+ ions into bioactive MBG scaffolds is a viable strategy for fabricating bi-lineage conducive scaffolds that enhance regeneration of osteochondral defects.

methoxy-poly(ethylene glycol) modified poly(L-lactide) enhanced cell affinity of human bone marrow stromal cells by the upregulation of 1-cadherin and delta-2-catenin

Poly(l-lactide) (PLLA), a versatile biodegradable polymer, is one of the most commonly-used materials for tissue engineering applications. To improve cell affinity for PLLA, poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) was used to develop diblock copolymers. Human bone marrow stromal cells (hBMSCs) were cultured on MPEG-b-PLLA copolymer films to determine the effects of modification on the attachment and proliferation of hBMSC. The mRNA expression of 84 human extracellular matrix (ECM) and adhesion molecules was analyzed using RT-qPCR to understand the underlying mechanisms. It was found that MPEG-b-PLLA copolymer films significantly improved cell adhesion, extension, and proliferation.This was found to be related to the significant upregulation of two adhesion genes, CDH1 and CTNND2, which encode 1-cadherin and delta-2-catenin, respectively, two key components for the cadherin-catenin complex. In summary, MPEG-b-PLLA copolymer surfaces improved initial cell adhesion by stimulation of adhesion molecule gene expression.

Informing healthy building design with biophilic urbanism design principles : a review and synthesis of current knowledge and research

Links between human health and wellbeing, and contact with nature are well understood in the fields of health and psychology, and more recently are gaining attention in the built environment industry. In 1984, E.O. Wilson coined the term ‘biophilia’ to describe the tendency for humans to have an innately emotional response to other living organisms. A growing number of researchers around the world are now exploring the impact of nature in urban environments (i.e. biophilic urbanism) on the human condition, including many indicators of human physical and mental health, recovery and performance. There is also an emergence of research on the potential for biophilic urbanism to address other challenges related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This paper presents key findings from a review of key literature to date, discussing opportunities for biophilic urbanism to both improve occupant experience and performance, as well as addressing other sustainability objectives including climate change mitigation and adaptation. The paper presents an emerging framework for considering biophilic design opportunities and highlights implications for the built environment industry. This research draws on an Australian project considering biophilic urbanism in the response to climate change, within the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre. This includes findings from a literature review, a survey pilot study and two workshops undertaken in Perth and Brisbane with a variety of industry and government stakeholders.

The mitochondrial genome of the Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia : large repetitive sequences between trnE and trnF in aphids

To characterize aphid mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) features, we sequenced the complete mitogenome of the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia. The 15,784-bp mitogenome with a high A + T content (84.76%) and strong C skew (− 0.26) was arranged in the same gene order as that of the ancestral insect. Unlike typical insect mitogenomes, D. noxia possessed a large tandem repeat region (644 bp) located between trnE and trnF. Sequencing partial mitogenome of the cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii) further confirmed the presence of the large repeat region in aphids, but with different repeat length and copy number. Another motif (58 bp) tandemly repeated 2.3 times in the control region of D. noxia. All repeat units in D. noxia could be folded into stem-loop secondary structures, which could further promote an increase in copy numbers. Characterization of the D. noxia mitogenome revealed distinct mitogenome architectures, thus advancing our understanding of insect mitogenomic diversities and evolution.

Improved molecular tools for sugar cane biotechnology

Sugar cane is a major source of food and fuel worldwide. Biotechnology has the potential to improve economically-important traits in sugar cane as well as diversify sugar cane beyond traditional applications such as sucrose production. High levels of transgene expression are key to the success of improving crops through biotechnology. Here we describe new molecular tools that both expand and improve gene expression capabilities in sugar cane. We have identified promoters that can be used to drive high levels of gene expression in the leaf and stem of transgenic sugar cane. One of these promoters, derived from the Cestrum yellow leaf curling virus, drives levels of constitutive transgene expression that are significantly higher than those achieved by the historical benchmark maize polyubiquitin-1 (Zm-Ubi1) promoter. A second promoter, the maize phosphonenolpyruvate carboxylate promoter, was found to be a strong, leaf-preferred promoter that enables levels of expression comparable to Zm-Ubi1 in this organ. Transgene expression was increased approximately 50-fold by gene modification, which included optimising the codon usage of the coding sequence to better suit sugar cane. We also describe a novel dual transcriptional enhancer that increased gene expression from different promoters, boosting expression from Zm-Ubi1 over eightfold. These molecular tools will be extremely valuable for the improvement of sugar cane through biotechnology.

An improved chemically inducible gene switch that functions in the monocotyledonous plant sugar cane

Chemically inducible gene switches can provide precise control over gene expression, enabling more specific analyses of gene function and expanding the plant biotechnology toolkit beyond traditional constitutive expression systems. The alc gene expression system is one of the most promising chemically inducible gene switches in plants because of its potential in both fundamental research and commercial biotechnology applications. However, there are no published reports demonstrating that this versatile gene switch is functional in transgenic monocotyledonous plants, which include some of the most important agricultural crops. We found that the original alc gene switch was ineffective in the monocotyledonous plant sugar cane, and describe a modified alc system that is functional in this globally significant crop. A promoter consisting of tandem copies of the ethanol receptor inverted repeat binding site, in combination with a minimal promoter sequence, was sufficient to give enhanced sensitivity and significantly higher levels of ethanol inducible gene expression. A longer CaMV 35S minimal promoter than was used in the original alc gene switch also substantially improved ethanol inducibility. Treating the roots with ethanol effectively induced the modified alc system in sugar cane leaves and stem, while an aerial spray was relatively ineffective. The extension of this chemically inducible gene expression system to sugar cane opens the door to new opportunities for basic research and crop biotechnology.

How much geological detail is needed for gasifier success?

The incipient Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) industry in Queensland, Australia, undertook three trial projects in two Mesozoic basins of southeast Queensland. The experiences of these three operations provide useful retrospective insight into gasifier productivity. This paper identifies key output measures of gasifier ‘success’ including output gas composition, presence of contaminants in groundwater and consistency of chamber operation. Likewise, a review of the geological and hydrogeological understanding of each site prior to gasifier commissioning was undertaken. Productivity parameters from gasification were then correlated against the level of baseline geological/hydrogeological understanding for each site. The aim of the study was to identify the optimum scope of geological and hydrogeological understanding required at the site assessment phase to ensure safe, maximum gasifier output during production phase. This approach allows identification of poor or unexpected performance that is attributable to pre-existing uncertainty. A historical review of gasifier conditions inferred from the three trial projects is presented. Hence from the Queensland experiences it is possible to identify what aspects of baseline geological understanding should be clearly understood at the site selection phase in order to limit anomalous gasifier performance and undesirable deviations, and maximise production output.

Toll-like receptor and pro-inflammatory cytokine expression during prolonged hyperinsulinaemia in horses : implications for laminitis

Equine laminitis, a disease of the lamellar structure of the horse’s hoof, can be incited by numerous factors that include inflammatory and metabolic aetiologies. However, the role of inflammation in hyperinsulinaemic laminitis has not been adequately defined. Tolllike receptor (TLR) activation results in up-regulation of inflammatory pathways and the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, including interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-�), and may be a pathogenic factor in laminitis. The aim of this study was to determine whether TLR4 expression and subsequent pro-inflammatory cytokine production is increased in lamellae and skeletal muscle during equine hyperinsulinaemia. Standardbred horses were treated with either a prolonged, euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp (p-EHC) or a prolonged, glucose infusion (p-GI), which induced marked and moderate hyperinsulinaemia, respectively. Age-matched control horses were treated simultaneously with a balanced electrolyte solution. Treated horses developed clinical (p-EHC) or subclinical (p-GI) laminitis, whereas controls did not. Skeletal muscle and lamellar protein extracts were analysed by Western blotting for TLR4, IL-6, TNF-� and suppressor of cytokine signalling 3 (SOCS3) expression. Lamellar protein expression of TLR4 and TNF-�, but not IL-6, was increased by the p-EHC, compared to control horses. A significant positive correlation was found between lamellar TLR4 and SOCS3. Skeletal muscle protein expression of TLR4 signalling parameters did not differ between control and p-EHC-treated horses. Similarly, the p-GI did not result in up-regulation of lamellar protein expression of any parameter. The results suggest that insulin-sensitive tissues may not accurately reflect lamellar pathology during hyperinsulinaemia. While TLR4 is present in the lamellae, its activation appears unlikely to contribute significantly to the developmental pathogenesis of hyperinsulinaemic laminitis. However, inflammation may have a role to play in the later stages (e.g., repair or remodelling) of the disease.