UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Evaluation of tumour vascularisation in two rat sarcoma models for studying isolated lung perfusion. Injection route determines the origin of tumour vessels.

Isolated cytostatic lung perfusion (ILP) is an attractive technique allowing delivery of a high-dose of cytostatic agents to the lungs while limiting systemic toxicity. In developing a rat model of ILP, we have analysed the effect of the route of tumour cell injection on the source of tumour vessels. Pulmonary sarcomas were established by injecting a sarcoma cell suspension either by the intravenous (i.v.) route or directly into the lung parenchyma. Ink perfusion through either pulmonary artery (PA) or bronchial arteries (BA) was performed and the characteristics of the tumour deposits defined. i.v. and direct injection methods induced pulmonary sarcoma nodules, with similar histological features. The intraparenchymal injection of tumour cells resulted in more reliable and reproducible tumour growth and was associated with a longer survival of the animals. i.v. injected tumours developed a PA-derived vascular tree whereas directly injected tumours developed a BA-derived vasculature.

Individual versus group strategy-proofness: when do they coincide?

A social choice function is group strategy-proof on a domain if no group of agents can manipulate its final outcome to their own benefit by declaring false preferences on that domain. Group strategy-proofness is a very attractive requirement of incentive compatibility. But in many cases it is hard or impossible to find nontrivial social choice functions satisfying even the weakest condition of individual strategy-proofness. However, there are a number of economically significant domains where interesting rules satisfying individual strategy-proofness can be defined, and for some of them, all these rules turn out to also satisfy the stronger requirement of group strategy-proofness. This is the case, for example, when preferences are single-peaked or single-dipped. In other cases, this equivalence does not hold. We provide sufficient conditions defining domains of preferences guaranteeing that individual and group strategy-proofness are equivalent for all rules defined on the

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Modified 'dumbbell' technique: a simple and intuitive method to position balloon-expandable stent valves.

Intraoperative cardiac imaging plays a key role during transcatheter aortic valve replacement. In recent years, new techniques and new tools for improved image quality and virtual navigation have been proposed, in order to simplify and standardize stent valve positioning and implantation. But routine performance of the new techniques may require major economic investments or specific knowledge and skills and, for this reason, they may not be accessible to the majority of cardiac centres involved in transcatheter valve replacement projects. Additionally, they still require injections of contrast medium to obtain computed images. Therefore, we have developed and describe here a very simple and intuitive method of positioning balloon-expandable stent valves, which represents the evolution of the 'dumbbell' technique for echocardiography-guided transcatheter valve replacement without angiography. This method, based on the partial inflation of the balloon catheter during positioning, traps the crimped valve in the aortic valve orifice and, consequently, very near to the ideal landing zone. It does not require specific echocardiographic knowledge; it does not require angiographies that increase the risk of postoperative kidney failure in elderly patients, and it can be also performed in centres not equipped with a hybrid operating room.

Social capital formation across space: proximity and trust in European regions

An extensive economics and regional science literature has discussed the importance of social capital for economic growth and development. Yet, what social capital is and how it is formed are elusive issues, which require further investigation. Here, we refer to social capital in terms of civic capital and good culture , as rephrased by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales (2010) and Tabellini (2010). The accumulation of this kind of capital allows the emerging of regional informal institutions, which may help explaining diff erences in regional development. In this paper, we take a regional perspective and use exploratory space and space-time methods to assess whether geography, via proximity, contributes to the formation of social capital across European regions. In particular, we ask whether generalized trust, a fundamental constituent of social capital and an ingredient of economic development, tends to be clustered across space and over time. From the policy standpoint, the spatial hysteresis of regional trust may contribute to the formation of spatial traps of social capital and act as a further barrier to regional economic development and convergence.

Infrequent Fiscal Stabilization

This paper studies discretionary non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy stabilization in a New Keynesian model, where the fiscal policymaker uses a distortionary taxe as the policy instrument and operates with long periods between optimal time-consistent adjustments of the instrument. We demonstrate that longer fiscal cycles result in stronger complementarities between the optimal actions of the monetary and fiscal policymakers. When the fiscal cycle is not very long, the complementarities lead to expectation traps. However, with a sufficiently long fiscal cycle — one year in our model — no learnable time-consistent equilibrium exists. Constraining the fiscal policymaker in its actions may help to avoid these adverse effects.

Identificació de noves dianes terapèutiques en neoplàsies limfoides

El limfoma de cèl•lules de mantell (LCM) és un limfoma de cèl•lules B incurable que presenta sobreexpressió de ciclina D1. Això fa necessari el desenvolupament de noves teràpies. Els gens supressors de tumors estan alterats en càncer pel silenciament epigenètic aberrant, com a conseqüència de la desacetilació de les histones dels seus promotors. Els inhibidors de les desacetilases d'histones (HDACi) són nous compostos amb resultats prometedors per al tractament de tumors. L'objectiu principal, i que ha durat 7 mesos, va ser analitzar l'activitat antitumoral de l'àcid hidroxàmic suberoilanílid (SAHA, vorinostat), un HDACi en fase d'assajos clínics per al tractament de varis tumors, en cèl•lules de LCM. Es va analitzar la sensibilitat al SAHA (Merck Pharmaceuticals) en nou línies cel•lulars humanes de LCM, que es diferenciaven en les alteracions genètiques, les característiques replicatives i la sensibilitat als fàrmacs; i cèl•lules primàries de 6 pacients. El SAHA va presentar un efecte citotòxic heterogeni amb DL50 (Dosi Letal 50) de 3.25 μM a &25 μM amb 24 d'incubació. Aquest efecte citotòxic s'incrementava notablement després de 48 hores d'incubació assolint una DL50 de 0.34 a 5.69 μM. Cal destacar que 5 dels 6 casos de les mostres primàries de LCM van mostrar una elevada sensibilitat (DL50 & 8.07 μM). A nivell mecanistic, el SAHA va augmentar l'acetilació de les histones H3 i H4, i va disminuir els nivells de proteïna de la ciclina D1 i c-Flip. La citometria de flux i els anàlisis per Western Blot van posar de manifest que l'efecte citotòxic del SAHA es dóna a través de l'activació de la via mitocondrial de mort cel•lular i la cascada de caspases. El SAHA indueix l'expressió transcripcional de la proteïna proapoptòtica Bmf. Aquests resultats suggereixen que el SAHA podria ser una nova teràpia prometedora per al tractament del LCM.

Preliminary laboratory and field trials of a heated pheromone trap for the sandfly lutzomyia logipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae)

A heated pheromone trap for the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis was tested in the laboratory using filter paper or plastic vial dispensers. Male pheromone extracted from 8 male tergal glands and absorbed on to filter paper dispensers attracted 82/120 (68.3%) of virgin females released in cages. Similarly plastic vial dispensers baited with the extract of 24 males caught 73/120 (61%). In field trials carried out near januária, Minas Gerais, Brazil using the plastic dispensers baited with extracts of 50 male tergal glands only 70 female L. longipalpis were captured. Over 1000 male flies were, however, caught during 6 nights, with greater numbers in the unbaited control traps than in the pheromone baited test traps. It is concluded that at excessive concentrations male L. longipalpis pheromone may act as a repellent to conspecific males.

Hepatitis C Virus Infection and Kidney Transplantation in 2014: What's New?

Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains an important health problem, which is associated with deleterious consequences in kidney transplant recipients. Besides hepatic complications, several extrahepatic complications contribute to reduced patient and allograft survival in HCV-infected kidney recipients. However, HCV infection should not be considered as a contraindication for kidney transplantation because patient survival is better with transplantation than on dialysis. Treatment of HCV infection is currently interferon-alpha (IFN-α) based, which has been associated with higher renal allograft rejection rates. Therefore, antiviral treatment before transplantation is preferable. As in the nontransplant setting, IFN-free treatment regimens, because of their greater efficacy and reduced toxicity, currently represent promising and attractive therapeutic options after kidney transplantation as well. However, clinical trials will be required to closely evaluate these regimens in kidney recipients. There is also a need for prospective controlled studies to determine the optimal immunosuppressive regimens after transplantation in HCV-infected recipients. Combined kidney and liver transplantation is required in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. However, in patients with cleared HCV infection and early cirrhosis without portal hypertension, kidney transplantation alone may be considered. There is some agreement about the use of HCV-positive donors in HCV-infected recipients, although data regarding posttransplant survival rates are controversial.

La reconversion du quartier Gare/Crêt-Taconnet à Neuchâtel: réflexions sur la densification qualifiée

La reconversion des friches industrielles des secteurs de gare est prometteuse dans l'optique d'un développement urbain dense alternatif à l'étalement. Elles constituent en effet une réserve foncière centrale et bien desservie par les transports publics. La densification de ces terrains stratégiques ne pourra cependant freiner l'étalement urbain qu'à condition d'offrir un cadre de vie attractif pour l'habitat. Notre hypothèse est que l'engagement des pouvoirs publics est déterminant pour assurer cette densification qualifiée. Brown fields regeneration in railway station areas is particularly promising in the perspective of a compact urban development alternative to sprawl. They indeed constitute a central land stock which is well connected to public transportation networks. However, the densification of these strategic lands will make it possible to moderate urban sprawl only by providing an attractive environment for residential activities. Our hypothesis is that public authorities involvement is decisive to ensure such a qualified densification. Die Umnutzung von Industriebrachen in Bahnhofsarealen scheint viel versprechend im Hinblick auf eine Stadtentwicklung nach innen als Alternative zur Ausbreitung. Zentralgelegen, stellen diese ungenutzten Flächen eine strategische Bodenreserve dar, welche gut an das öffentliche Verkehrsmittelnetz angeschlossen ist. Ihre Verdichtung kann jedoch die Stadtausbreitung nur eindämmen unter der Bedingung, einen attraktiven Lebens- und Wohnraum zu bieten. Unsere Hypothese lautet, dass das Ausmass des Engagements der öffentlichen Hand bestimmend ist um diese qualitative Verdichtung sicherzustellen.

Potent synergism of the combination of fluconazole and cyclosporine in Candida albicans.

Several types of drugs currently used in clinical practice were screened in vitro for their potentiation of the antifungal effect of the fungistatic agent fluconazole (FLC) on Candida albicans. These drugs included inhibitors of multidrug efflux transporters, antimicrobial agents, antifungal agents, and membrane-active compounds with no antimicrobial activity, such as antiarrhythmic agents, proton pump inhibitors, and platelet aggregation inhibitors. Among the drugs tested in an agar disk diffusion assay, cyclosporine (Cy), which had no intrinsic antifungal activity, showed a potent antifungal effect in combination with FLC. In a checkerboard microtiter plate format, however, it was observed that the MIC of FLC, as classically defined by the NCCLS recommendations, was unchanged when FLC and Cy were combined. Nevertheless, if a different reading endpoint corresponding to the minimal fungicidal concentration needed to decrease viable counts by at least 3 logs in comparison to the growth control was chosen, the combination was synergistic (fractional inhibitory concentration index of <1). This endpoint fitted to the definition of MIC-0 (optically clear wells) and reflected the absence of the trailing effect, which is the result of a residual growth at FLC concentrations greater than the MIC. The MIC-0 values of FLC and Cy tested alone in C. albicans were >32 and >10 microg/ml, respectively, and decreased to 0.5 and 0.625 microg/ml when the two drugs were combined. The combination of 0.625 microg of Cy per ml with supra-MICs of FLC resulted in a potent antifungal effect in time-kill curve experiments. This effect was fungicidal or fungistatic, depending on the C. albicans strain used. Since the Cy concentration effective in vitro is achievable in vivo, the combination of this agent with FLC represents an attractive perspective for the development of new management strategies for candidiasis.

Effects of different mating scenarios on embryo viability in brown trout.

Mating with attractive or dominant males is often predicted to offer indirect genetic benefits to females, but it is still largely unclear how important such non-random mating can be with regard to embryo viability. We sampled a natural population of adult migratory brown trout (Salmo trutta), bred them in vitro in a half-sib breeding design to separate genetic from maternal environmental effects, raised 2098 embryos singly until hatching, and exposed them experimentally to different levels of pathogen stress at a late embryonic stage. We found that the embryos' tolerance to the induced pathogen stress was linked to the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of their parents, i.e. certain MHC genotypes appeared to provide better protection against infection than others. We also found significant additive genetic variance for stress tolerance. Melanin-based dark skin patterns revealed males with 'good genes', i.e. embryos fathered by dark coloured males had a high tolerance to infection. Mating with large and dominant males would, however, not improve embryo viability when compared to random mating. We used simulations to provide estimates of how mate choice based on MHC or melanin-based skin patterns would influence embryos' tolerance to the experimentally induced pathogen stress.

Reforms of the pre-graduate curriculum for medical students: the Bologna process and beyond.

For several years, all five medical faculties of Switzerland have embarked on a reform of their training curricula for two reasons: first, according to a new federal act issued in 2006 by the administration of the confederation, faculties needed to meet international standards in terms of content and pedagogic approaches; second, all Swiss universities and thus all medical faculties had to adapt the structure of their curriculum to the frame and principles which govern the Bologna process. This process is the result of the Bologna Declaration of June 1999 which proposes and requires a series of reforms to make European Higher Education more compatible and comparable, more competitive and more attractive for Europeans students. The present paper reviews some of the results achieved in the field, focusing on several issues such as the shortage of physicians and primary care practitioners, the importance of public health, community medicine and medical humanities, and the implementation of new training approaches including e-learning and simulation. In the future, faculties should work on several specific challenges such as: students' mobility, the improvement of students' autonomy and critical thinking as well as their generic and specific skills and finally a reflection on how to improve the attractiveness of the academic career, for physicians of both sexes.