Better dead: J. M. Barrie’s first book and the shilling fiction market

This article provides a critical and bibliographical discussion of J. M. Barrie’s neglected first book, Better Dead, published by Swan Sonnenschein, Lowrey & Co. in 1887. Drawing on previously unexamined evidence in the Sonnenschein archive, it shows how this shilling novel was marketed and sold to its readers at railway bookstalls, and argues that the content and style of the story was conditioned by its form. Examining the many references and allusions in the story, it proposes that the work is best understood as a satire on contemporary political, social and literary themes. The article also shows how, contrary to all published accounts, the author actually earned a small amount of money from a work which, in spite of his efforts, refused to stay dead.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

The petrified muse

Archive of blogs and other information about Classical prose, poetry, epigraphy and the Carmina Epigraphica.

Auf dem Prüfstein: Die Umgangsweise der japanischen Regierung mit der Todesstrafe

This paper examines public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan, and explores the validity of claims about »majority public support« that have been used by the Japanese government to justify retention. This is done by analyzing three public perception surveys on the legitimacy of the Japanese death penalty system. This paper criticizes the Japanese government for accepting its own survey results, which, at face value, appear to show support for the death penalty; moreover, it concludes that the Japanese public would likely endorse the abolition of the death penalty without damaging the legitimacy of state institutions.

Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

Glastonbury Abbey: archaeological investigations 1904-79

This volume reports on the results of the Glastonbury Abbey Archaeological Archive Project, a collaboration between the University of Reading and the Trustees of Glastonbury Abbey, funded principally by the Arts and Humanities Research Council. The project has reassessed and reinterpreted all known archaeological records from the 1908–79 excavations and made the complete dataset available to the public through a digital archive hosted by the Archaeology Data Service (http://dx.doi.org/10.5284/1022585). The scope of the project has included the full analysis of the archaeological collections of Glastonbury Abbey by thirty-one leading specialists, including chemical and compositional analysis of glass and metal and petrological analysis of pottery and tile, and a comprehensive geophysical survey conducted by GSB Prospection Ltd. For the first time, it has been possible to achieve a framework of independent dating based on reassessment of the finds and radiocarbon dating of surviving organic material from the 1950s excavations. The principal aim of the Glastonbury Abbey Archaeological Project was to set aside previous assumptions based on the historical and legendary traditions and to provide a rigorous reassessment of the archive of antiquarian excavations. This research has revealed that some of the best known archaeological ‘facts’ about Glastonbury are themselves myths perpetuated by the abbey’s excavators.

Active literature: Jan Tschichold and New Typography

In the first book on Tschichold to be based on extensive archive research, Burke turns fresh and revealing light on his subject. He sets Tschichold in the network of artists and designers who constituted New Typography in its moment of definition and exploration, and puts new emphasis on Tschichold as an activist collector, editor and writer. Tschichold’s work is shown in colour throughout, in freshly made photographs of examples drawn from public and private collections. This is not a biography, but rather a discussion of the work seen in the context of Tschichold’s life and the times in which he lived.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Opportunity agriculture. The next decade: towards a sustainably competitive industry

Report provided and presented at the Oxford Farming Conference

abctools: an R package for tuning approximate Bayesian computation analyses

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular family of algorithms which perform approximate parameter inference when numerical evaluation of the likelihood function is not possible but data can be simulated from the model. They return a sample of parameter values which produce simulations close to the observed dataset. A standard approach is to reduce the simulated and observed datasets to vectors of summary statistics and accept when the difference between these is below a specified threshold. ABC can also be adapted to perform model choice. In this article, we present a new software package for R, abctools which provides methods for tuning ABC algorithms. This includes recent dimension reduction algorithms to tune the choice of summary statistics, and coverage methods to tune the choice of threshold. We provide several illustrations of these routines on applications taken from the ABC literature.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

Twice erased: the silencing of feminisms in her noise

A cluster of three texts following a conference panel on the Her Noise research and exhibition project (2005 - present, curated by Lina Dzuverovic and Anne Hilde Neset) in 2013 held at the 'Women in Music' Conference in New York. The articles have been published in Volume 20 of Women and Music: A Journal of Gender and Culture: “Intimate Publics in the Her Noise Archive,” by Holly Ingleton “Twice Erased: The silencing of Feminisms in Her Noise,” by Lina Dzuverovic “Why Not Our Voices? by Cathy Lane

The Stephen Dwoskin dossier: introduction

This dossier aims to consider the contribution Stephen Dwoskin and his work made to the development of film and its infrastructure in the UK from 1964 when he arrived in the London until his death in 2012. Dwoskin not only straddled different contexts and ideologies about film but advocated for the support of work in a wide variety of forms. Because of this he was not easily categorizeable. Much of the work analyzing his camera work and his contribution to film is written in French and there is little, particularly in recent years, in English. As such this dossier constituted an important contribution to the reassessment of a singular avant-garde artist and film maker. (can I use avant garde here?) In the light of his recent death this is a timely moment for a consideration of Dwoskin’s achievements and legacy. As well as having a groundbreaking vision of what film could do, he was an influential figure and constituting force in terms of the milieu and structures that supported the independent film world in the UK for several decades. Much of the literature surrounding this world in the UK has been formed by key figures making sense of their part in history. This dossier aims towards some first steps in historicising his legacy. Two of the proposed texts will be making use of new material to conduct original research made available through the recently acquired Dwoskin Archive at University of Reading. Due to Dowksin’s heterogenous involvement in film, there are many ways in which Dwoskin can be considered and the proposed essays will take a range of perspectives to assess and analyse his contribution.

Ratios of UV, PAR and NIR components to global solar radiation measured at Botucatu site in Brazil

The relationships between the four radiant fluxes are analyzed based on a 4 year data archive of hourly and daily global ultraviolet (I(UV)), photosynthetically active-PAR (I(PAR)), near infrared (I(NIR)) and broadband global solar radiation (I(G)) collected at Botucatu, Brazil. These data are used to establish both the fractions of spectral components to global solar radiation and the proposed linear regression models. Verification results indicated that the proposed regression models predict accurately the spectral radiant fluxes at least for the Brazilian environment. Finally, results obtained in this analysis agreed well with most published results in the literature. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.