UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

A Data mining approach to indirect inference

Consider a model with parameter phi, and an auxiliary model with parameter theta. Let phi be a randomly sampled from a given density over the known parameter space. Monte Carlo methods can be used to draw simulated data and compute the corresponding estimate of theta, say theta_tilde. A large set of tuples (phi, theta_tilde) can be generated in this manner. Nonparametric methods may be use to fit the function E(phi|theta_tilde=a), using these tuples. It is proposed to estimate phi using the fitted E(phi|theta_tilde=theta_hat), where theta_hat is the auxiliary estimate, using the real sample data. This is a consistent and asymptotically normally distributed estimator, under certain assumptions. Monte Carlo results for dynamic panel data and vector autoregressions show that this estimator can have very attractive small sample properties. Confidence intervals can be constructed using the quantiles of the phi for which theta_tilde is close to theta_hat. Such confidence intervals are found to have very accurate coverage.

Further development of the baboon as a model for acute schistosomiasis

Baboons develop a syndrome, including eosinophilia and transient fever, after infection with carcariae of Schistosoma mansoni that is consistent with the human syndrome of acute schistosomiasis. Radiotelemetry can be used to follow the course of fever in infected baboons. Individual variations in intensity of disease were noted in baboons. These symptoms and signs were more closely linked to the onset of oviposition by the newly matured worms than they were to the presence of migrating schistosoma or maturing worms. The baboon is concluded to be a suitable and useful model for human acute schistosomiasis mansoni.

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

Dengue in Brazil - situation, transmission and control: a proposal for ecological control

This article discusses dengue in terms of its conceptual and historical aspects, epidemiological and clinical/pathological nature, and evolution up to the present situation in Brazil. The author discusses the ecological relationship in both the production of dengue and its control. Comparison is made between traditional dengue-control programs and a proposed socially-controlled program of an ecological nature without the use of insecticides. Stress is placed on interdisciplinary technical and scientific activity, broadbased participation by communities in discussing methodological aspects involving them, and prospective evaluation comparing the communities selected for intervention and control communities with regard to clinical and subclinical dengue cases and vector infestation rates in relation to climatic, socio-economic, and behavioural factors.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

Infected erythrocyte choline carrier inhibitors: exploring some potentialities inside Plasmodium phospholipid metabolism for eventual resistance acquisition

We have developed a model for designing antimalarial drugs based on interference with an essential metabolism developed by Plasmodium during its intraerythrocytic cycle, phospholipid (PL) metabolism. The most promising drug interference is choline transporter blockage, which provides Plasmodium with a supply of precursor for synthesis of phosphatidylcholine (PC), the major PL of infected erythrocytes. Choline entry is a limiting step in this metabolic pathway and occurs by a facilitated-diffusion system involving an asymmetric carrier operating according to a cyclic model. Choline transport in the erythrocytes is not sodium dependent nor stereospecific as demonstrated using stereoisomers of alpha and beta methylcholine. These last two characteristics along with distinct effects of nitrogen substitution on transport rate demonstrate that choline transport in the infected erythrocyte possesses characteristics quite distinct from that of the nervous system. This indicates a possible discrimination between the antimalarial activity (inhibition of choline transport in the infected erythrocyte) and a possible toxic effect through inhibition of choline entry in synaptosomes. Apart from the de novo pathway of choline, PC can be synthesized by N-methylation from phosphatidylethanolamine (PE). There is a de novo pathway for PE biosynthesis from ethanolamine in infected cells but phosphatidylserine (PS) decarboxylation also occurs. In addition, PE can be directly and abundantly synthesized from serine decarboxylation into ethanolamine, a pathway which is absent from the host. The variety of the pathways that exist for the biosynthesis of one given PL led us to investigate whether an equilibrium can occur between all PL metabolic pathways. Indeed, if alternative (compensative) pathway(s) can operate after blockage of the de novo PC biosynthesis pathway this would indicate a potential mechanism for resistance acquisition. Up until now, there is no evidence of such a compensative process occurring in Plasmodium-infected erythrocytes under physiological conditions. Besides, the discovery of a highly parasite-specific pathway (serine decarboxylation and the presence of PS synthase) constitutes a very attractive and promising target, which could be attacked if resistances are built up against choline analogs. Indeed, potential inhibitions of the serine decarboxylase pathway could be very useful in acting instead of, or in surgery with, choline analogs.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

The Peace Processes in the Basque Country and Northern Ireland (1994-2006): a Comparative Approach

The peace process in Northern Ireland demonstrates that new sovereignty formulas need to be explored in order to meet the demands of the populations and territories in conflict. The profound transformation of the classic symbolic elements of the nation-state within the context of the European Union has greatly contributed to the prospects for a resolution of this old conflict. Today’s discussions are focused on the search for instruments of shared sovereignty that are adapted to a complex and plural social reality. This new approach for finding a solution to the Irish conflict is particularly relevant to the Basque debate about formulating creative and modern solutions to similar conflicts over identity and sovereignty. The notion of shared sovereignty implemented in Northern Ireland –a formula for complex interdependent relations– is of significant relevance to the broader international community and is likely to become an increasingly potent and transcendent model for conflict resolution and peace building.

Primordial Perturbations in Einstein-Aether theories

El nostre objectiu es l'estudi d'extensions de la Relativitat General i, en particular, estem interessats en les teories que continguin camps vectorials addicionals. En aquests tipus de teories es necessari imposar que el vector ha de tenir norma fixa per evitar la presència d'un fantasma o grau de llibertat amb terme cinètic negatiu, i això implica que la simetria Lorentz està trencada espontàniament. El camp del aether només interactua gravitatòriament i la seva presència es difícil de detectar, no obstant això, durant inflació les fluctuacions del buit a escales petites d'un camp lleuger pot deixar una empremta en observables com les anisotropies del fons de radiació de microones. Les fluctuacions del Einstein-aether es comporten com els camps sense massa i això fa que inflació generi modes de longitud de ona llarga en els sectors escalar i vectorial. Hem estudiat la signatura del Einstein-aether dins l'espectre de pertorbacions primordials lluny del límit de de Sitter de inflació. Aquests modes escalars i vectorials poden deixar una empremta significativa en la radiació de fons de microones en funció dels paràmetres del model. Les observacions del fons de radiació de microones imposen restriccions fenomenològiques que redueixen els límits existents per aquesta classe de teoria. Amb aquest estudi del aether també esperem millorar el coneixement que tenim de una classe més ampla de teories que exhibeixen el mateix tipus de trencament de simetria.

The complement inhibitor low molecular weight dextran sulfate prevents TLR4-induced phenotypic and functional maturation of human dendritic cells.

Low molecular weight dextran sulfate (DXS) has been reported to inhibit the classical, alternative pathway as well as the mannan-binding lectin pathway of the complement system. Furthermore, it acts as an endothelial cell protectant inhibiting complement-mediated endothelial cell damage. Endothelial cells are covered with a layer of heparan sulfate (HS), which is rapidly released under conditions of inflammation and tissue injury. Soluble HS induces maturation of dendritic cells (DC) via TLR4. In this study, we show the inhibitory effect of DXS on human DC maturation. DXS significantly prevents phenotypic maturation of monocyte-derived DC and peripheral myeloid DC by inhibiting the up-regulation of CD40, CD80, CD83, CD86, ICAM-1, and HLA-DR and down-regulates DC-SIGN in response to HS or exogenous TLR ligands. DXS also inhibits the functional maturation of DC as demonstrated by reduced T cell proliferation, and strongly impairs secretion of the proinflammatory mediators IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-12p70, and TNF-alpha. Exposure to DXS leads to a reduced production of the complement component C1q and a decreased phagocytic activity, whereas C3 secretion is increased. Moreover, DXS was found to inhibit phosphorylation of IkappaB-alpha and activation of NF-kappaB. These findings suggest that DXS prevents TLR-induced maturation of human DC and may therefore be a useful reagent to impede the link between innate and adaptive immunity.

Interactions of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and TNF receptor family members in the mouse and human.

Ligands of the tumor necrosis factor superfamily (TNFSF) (4-1BBL, APRIL, BAFF, CD27L, CD30L, CD40L, EDA1, EDA2, FasL, GITRL, LIGHT, lymphotoxin alpha, lymphotoxin alphabeta, OX40L, RANKL, TL1A, TNF, TWEAK, and TRAIL) bind members of the TNF receptor superfamily (TNFRSF). A comprehensive survey of ligand-receptor interactions was performed using a flow cytometry-based assay. All ligands engaged between one and five receptors, whereas most receptors only bound one to three ligands. The receptors DR6, RELT, TROY, NGFR, and mouse TNFRH3 did not interact with any of the known TNFSF ligands, suggesting that they either bind other types of ligands, function in a ligand-independent manner, or bind ligands that remain to be identified. The study revealed that ligand-receptor pairs are either cross-reactive between human and mouse (e.g. Tweak/Fn14, RANK/RANKL), strictly species-specific (GITR/GITRL), or partially species-specific (e.g. OX40/OX40L, CD40/CD40L). Interestingly, the receptor binding patterns of lymphotoxin alpha and alphabeta are redundant in the human but not in the mouse system. Ligand oligomerization allowed detection of weak interactions, such as that of human TNF with mouse TNFR2. In addition, mouse APRIL exists as two different splice variants differing by a single amino acid. Although human APRIL does not interact with BAFF-R, the shorter variant of mouse APRIL exhibits weak but detectable binding to mouse BAFF-R.

Cytokines in the modulation of eosinophilia

In this review we discuss our recently results showing interleukin 5 (IL-5) involvement in eosinophil migration and in the maintenance of eosinophilia in blood, bone marrow, lung and peritoneal cavity, in a visceral larva migrans syndrome model using guinea-pigs infected with Toxocara canis. We also describe the sequential release of TNF-alpha and IL-8 during the course of infection, and the interaction between these cytokines and IL-5 during infection. Finally we propose a new biological role for IL-5, at least in our model, as a modulator of IL-8 release and secretion.