Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

MRI of coronary vessel walls using radial k-space sampling and steady-state free precession imaging.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to investigate the impact of radial k-space sampling and steady-state free precession (SSFP) imaging on image quality in MRI of coronary vessel walls. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Eleven subjects were examined on a 1.5-T MR system using three high-resolution navigator-gated and cardiac-triggered 3D black blood sequences (cartesian gradient-echo [GRE], radial GRE, and radial SSFP) with identical spatial resolution (0.9 x 0.9 x 2.4 mm3). The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel wall sharpness, and motion artifacts were analyzed. RESULTS: The mean SNR and CNR of the coronary vessel wall were improved using radial imaging and were best using radial k-space sampling combined with SSFP imaging. Vessel border definition was similar for all three sequences. Radial k-space sampling was found to be less sensitive to motion. Consistently good image quality was seen with the radial GRE sequence. CONCLUSION: Radial k-space sampling in MRI of coronary vessel walls resulted in fewer motion artifacts and improved SNR and CNR. The use of SSFP imaging, however, did not result in improved coronary vessel wall visualization.

Development of a dose-controlled multiculture cell exposure chamber for efficient delivery of airborne and engineered nanoparticles

In order to study the various health influencing parameters related to engineered nanoparticles as well as to soot emitted b diesel engines, there is an urgent need for appropriate sampling devices and methods for cell exposure studies that simulate the respiratory system and facilitate associated biological and toxicological tests. The objective of the present work was the further advancement of a Multiculture Exposure Chamber (MEC) into a dose-controlled system for efficient delivery of nanoparticles to cells. It was validated with various types of nanoparticles (diesel engine soot aggregates, engineered nanoparticles for various applications) and with state-of-the-art nanoparticle measurement instrumentation to assess the local deposition of nanoparticles on the cell cultures. The dose of nanoparticles to which cell cultures are being exposed was evaluated in the normal operation of the in vitro cell culture exposure chamber based on measurements of the size specific nanoparticle collection efficiency of a cell free device. The average efficiency in delivering nanoparticles in the MEC was approximately 82%. The nanoparticle deposition was demonstrated by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Analysis and design of the MEC employs Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and true to geometry representations of nanoparticles with the aim to assess the uniformity of nanoparticle deposition among the culture wells. Final testing of the dose-controlled cell exposure system was performed by exposing A549 lung cell cultures to fluorescently labeled nanoparticles. Delivery of aerosolized nanoparticles was demonstrated by visualization of the nanoparticle fluorescence in the cell cultures following exposure. Also monitored was the potential of the aerosolized nanoparticles to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) (e.g. free radicals and peroxides generation), thus expressing the oxidative stress of the cells which can cause extensive cellular damage or damage on DNA.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

The european higher education area at work: Lights and shadows defining continuous assessment

The aim of this paper is to analyse how learning assessment, particularly the Continuous Assessment system, has been defined in the Public Administration and Management Diploma Course of the University of Barcelona (Spain). This course was a pioneering experiment at this university in implementing the guidelines of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA), and thus represents a good case study for verifying whether one of the cornerstones of the EHEA has been accomplished with success. Using data obtained from the Teaching Plans elaborated by the lecturers of each subject, we are able to establish that the CA system has been progressively accepted to such an extent that it is now the assessment formula used by practically all of the lecturers, conforming in this way to the protocols laid down by the Faculty of Law in which this diploma course is taught. Nevertheless, we find that high dispersion exists in how Continuous Assessment is actually defined. Indeed, it seems that there is no unified view of how Continuous Assessment should be performed. This dispersion, however, seems to diminish over time and raises some questions about the advisability of agreement on criteria, considering the potential which CA has as a pedagogical tool. Moreover, we find that the Unique Assessment system, which students may also apply for, is an option chosen only by a minority, with lecturers usually defining it as merely a theoretical and/or practical test, of little innovation in relation to traditional tests.

INdividual SUrveys in RAllies (INSURA), A new tool for exploring transnational activism?

Prior the middle of the 90', interviewing participants in protest events was quiet rare. INdividual SUrveys in RAllies (INSURA) did enter the social researcher's usual toolkit only in the following decade after Favre, Fillieule and Mayer (1997) conducted such a survey with as a primary ambition to build a solid methodological framework that could be subsequently applied by other researchers. After some years of intensive use of INSURA, one is entitled to wonder whether that technique has fulfilled social researchers' hopes or not. In that paper, results of a collective work on alter-global rallies in Evian and Saint- Denis are used to answer three interrelated questions. Firstly, some basic methodological questions about how to collect data on crowds are adressed. What are the specific constraints of interviewing people at the very moment they are "expressing" a political opinion? What specific constraints result from the morphology of the covered events, that is to say, how to build a valid sampling frame? The authors then turn to a more general point about the questions that can be solved, or not, using that technique. Secondly it is the strenghts and weaknesses of INSURA in exploring the transnational dimension of alter global protests that is adressed. The authors show that INSURA is certainly well suited to explore the demographics of alter-global events, as well as relational networks of individuals and multiple belongings. On the contrary, it is assumed that organization networks and movement's boundaries are far more difficult to explore through that method, a fact that seriously limits international cross comparisons of events and movements based on that tool.

Prospective sampling based on model ensembles improves the detection of rare species

Identifying the geographic distribution of populations is a basic, yet crucial step in many fundamental and applied ecological projects, as it provides key information on which many subsequent analyses depend. However, this task is often costly and time consuming, especially where rare species are concerned and where most sampling designs generally prove inefficient. At the same time, rare species are those for which distribution data are most needed for their conservation to be effective. To enhance fieldwork sampling, model-based sampling (MBS) uses predictions from species distribution models: when looking for the species in areas of high habitat suitability, chances should be higher to find them. We thoroughly tested the efficiency of MBS by conducting an important survey in the Swiss Alps, assessing the detection rate of three rare and five common plant species. For each species, habitat suitability maps were produced following an ensemble modeling framework combining two spatial resolutions and two modeling techniques. We tested the efficiency of MBS and the accuracy of our models by sampling 240 sites in the field (30 sitesx8 species). Across all species, the MBS approach proved to be effective. In particular, the MBS design strictly led to the discovery of six sites of presence of one rare plant, increasing chances to find this species from 0 to 50%. For common species, MBS doubled the new population discovery rates as compared to random sampling. Habitat suitability maps coming from the combination of four individual modeling methods predicted well the species' distribution and more accurately than the individual models. As a conclusion, using MBS for fieldwork could efficiently help in increasing our knowledge of rare species distribution. More generally, we recommend using habitat suitability models to support conservation plans.

INTERMED predicts non-return to work in an occupational rehabilitation setting for individuals with orthopaedic trauma-part 2

Introduction.- The model presented in part I (19 predictors) had good predictive values for non-return to work 2 years after vocational rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma. However, the number of predictors is high for the detection of patients at risk in a clinic. For example, the INTERMED for itself consists of 20 questions and needs 20 minutes to be filled in. For this reason, the aim of this study was to compare the predictive value of different models for the prediction of non-return to work.Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 included inpatients with orthopaedic trauma attending a rehabilitation hospital after a work, traffic, sport or leisure related injury. Two years after discharge, 1502 patients returned a questionnaire regarding return to work. We compared the area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve (ROC) between different models: INTERMED total score, the 4 partial INTERMED scores, the items of the most predictive partial score; with or without confounders.Results.- The ROC for the total score of the INTERMED plus the five confounders of the of the part one (qualified work, speaking French, lesion of upper extremity, education and age) was 0.72. The sole partial INTERMED score to predict return to work was the social sub score. The ROC for the five items of the latter sub score of the INTERMED was 0.69. The ROC for the five items of the social subscale of the INTERMED combined with five predictors was 0.73. This was significantly better than the use of only the five items from INTERMED alone (delta 0.034; 95% CI 0.017 to .050). The model presented in part I (INTERMED total score plus 18 predictors) was not significantly better than the five items INTERMED social score plus five confounders.Discussion.- The use of a model with ten variables (INTERMED social five items plus five confounders) has good predictive value to detect patients not returning to work after vocational rehabilitation after orthopaedic trauma. The parsimony of this model facilitates its use in a clinic for the detection of patients at risk.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

Comparison of microscopic method and computational program for pesticide deposition evaluation of spraying

The main objective of this work was to compare two methods to estimate the deposition of pesticide applied by aerial spraying. Hundred and fifty pieces of water sensitive paper were distributed over an area of 50 m length by 75 m width for sampling droplets sprayed by an aircraft calibrated to apply a spray volume of 32 L/ha. The samples were analysed by visual microscopic method using NG 2 Porton graticule and by an image analyser computer program. The results reached by visual microscopic method were the following: volume median diameter, 398±62 mum; number median diameter, 159±22 mum; droplet density, 22.5±7.0 droplets/cm² and estimated deposited volume, 22.2±9.4 L/ha. The respective ones reached with the computer program were: 402±58 mum, 161±32 mum, 21.9±7.5 droplets/cm² and 21.9±9.2 L/ha. Graphs of the spatial distribution of droplet density and deposited spray volume on the area were produced by the computer program.

Solid-phase microextraction as short-term sampling technique for BTEX occupational exposure

Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been widely used for many years in various applications, such as environmental and water samples, food and fragrance analysis, or biological fluids. The aim of this study was to suggest the SPME method as an alternative to conventional techniques used in the evaluation of worker exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX). Polymethylsiloxane-carboxen (PDMS/CAR) showed as the most effective stationary phase material for sorbing BTEX among other materials (polyacrylate, PDMS, PDMS/divinylbenzene, Carbowax/divinylbenzene). Various experimental conditions were studied to apply SPME to BTEX quantitation in field situations. The uptake rate of the selected fiber (75 μm PDMS/CAR) was determined for each analyte at various concentrations, relative humidities, and airflow velocities from static (calm air) to dynamic (>200 cm/s) conditions. The SPME method also was compared with the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health method 1501. Unlike the latter, the SPME approach fulfills the new requirement for the threshold limit value-short term exposure limit (TLV-STEL) of 2.5 ppm for benzene (8 mg/m3).

¿Y después del trabajo, qué? Más allá de la integración laboral de las personas con discapacidad = What happens after work? Going further than labour integration for disabled people

La actividad profesional es fundamental en la vida de cualquier persona y en el caso de las que padecen una discapacidad tiene una gran importancia para contribuir a configurar su identidad adulta. En este sentido, la finalidad del artículo es valorar la importancia del trabajo en los procesos de participación social y de calidad de vida de las personas con discapacidad. Por ello, en el artículo se pone de manifiesto la relación que se establece entre la dimensión laboral y la integración social de los individuos con discapacidad mediante el análisis de investigaciones desarrolladas en nuestro contexto, entre las que figuran diversos estudios realizados por nuestro grupo de investigación durante los últimos años. Con la voluntad de conocer con más detalle esta cuestión, se presenta una investigación reciente realizada por nuestro equipo. En ella desarrollamos un estudio de casos centrado en personas con discapacidad psíquica que han participado en experiencias de integración laboral en el mercado ordinario, con el objetivo de obtener información sobre la incidencia de la inserción laboral en diferentes dimensiones de la vida de los trabajadores con discapacidad. Los resultados nos permiten valorar que la experiencia genera cambios positivos, sobre todo a nivel personal (expectativas personales, potenciación del proyecto de vida, mejora de competencias…). Sin embargo, a pesar de que se aprecian mejoras en la dimensión social, el estudio plantea la necesidad de emprender acciones alternativas para potenciar la participación comunitaria de las personas implicadas en la investigación. El artículo concluye con algunas propuestas orientadas a mejorar los procesos de inserción social del colectivo

Effects of three harvesting work methods on Harwarder productivity in final felling

Abstract