Within-winter movements: a common phenomenon in the Common Pochard Aythya ferina

Waterbirds are often observed to move between different wintering sites within the same winter—for example, in response to food availability or weather conditions. Within-winter movements may contribute to the spreading of diseases, such as avian influenza, outside the actual migration period. The Common Pochard Aythya ferina seems to be particularly sensitive to infection with the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and, consequently, could play an important role as vectors for the disease. We describe here the within-winter movements of Pochards in Europe in relation to topography, climate, sex and age. We analysed data provided by the Euring data bank on 201 individuals for which records from different locations from the same winter (December–February) were available. The distances and directions moved within the winter varied markedly between regions, which could be ascribed to the differing topography (coast lines, Alps). We found no significant differences in terms of distances and directions moved between the sexes and only weak indications of differences between the age classes. In Switzerland, juveniles moved in more westerly directions than adults. During relatively mild winters, winter harshness had no effect on the distances travelled, but in cold winters, a positive relationship was observed, a pattern possibly triggered by the freezing of lakes. Winter harshness did not influence the directions of the movement. About 41% (83/201) of the Pochards that were recovered at least 1 km from the ringing site had moved more than 200 km. A substantial number of birds moved between central/southern Europe and the north-western coast of mainland Europe, and between the north-western coast of mainland Europe and Great Britain, whereas no direct exchange between Great Britain and central/southern Europe was observed. Within-winter movements of Pochards seem to be a common phenomenon in all years and possibly occur as a response to the depletion of food resources. This high tendency to move could potentially contribute to the spread of bird-transmitted diseases outside the actual migration period.

Family Preservation Journal, Winter 1996, Volume 1. (Entire issue)

Entire issue (large pdf file) Articles include: Improving Family Functioning through Family Preservation Services: Results of the Los Angeles Experiment. Family Preservation Journal. William Meezan and Jacquelyn McCroskey Idiographic Self-Monitoring Instruments to Empower Client Participation and Evaluate Outcome in Intensive Family Preservation Services. Barbara Peo Early Evaluating Family Preservation in Nevada: A University-State Agency Collaboration. Christine Bitoni and Joy Salmon The Family Partners Credit Card: A Token Economy System Adapted for Intensive Family Preservation Services to Enable Families to Manage Difficult Behavior of Adolescents. Jude Nichols and Barbara Peo Early Toward the Development of Ethical Guidelines for Family Preservation. David A Dosser Jr., Richard J. Shaffer, Michaux M. Shaffer, DeVault Clevenger, and Dustin K. Jefferies

Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

Serial correlation of extreme midlatitude cyclones observed at the storm track exits is explained by deviations from a Poisson process. To model these deviations, we apply fractional Poisson processes (FPPs) to extreme midlatitude cyclones, which are defined by the 850 hPa relative vorticity of the ERA interim reanalysis during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Extremes are defined by a 99% quantile threshold in the grid-point time series. In general, FPPs are based on long-term memory and lead to non-exponential return time distributions. The return times are described by a Weibull distribution to approximate the Mittag–Leffler function in the FPPs. The Weibull shape parameter yields a dispersion parameter that agrees with results found for midlatitude cyclones. The memory of the FPP, which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis, provides an independent estimate for the shape parameter. Thus, the analysis exhibits a concise framework of the deviation from Poisson statistics (by a dispersion parameter), non-exponential return times and memory (correlation) on the basis of a single parameter. The results have potential implications for the predictability of extreme cyclones.

The Use of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available.

Polar MM5 Simulations of the Winter Climate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at the LGM

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

The quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012

This study investigates the characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave in the mesosphere during boreal winter 2011/2012 using observations of water vapor from ground-based microwave radiometers and satellite data. The ground-based microwave radiometers are located in Seoul (South Korea, 37° N), Bern (Switzerland, 47° N) and Sodankylä (Finland, 67° N). The quasi 16-day wave is observed in the mesosphere at all three locations, while the dominant period increases with latitude from 15 days at Seoul to 20 days at Sodankylä. The observed evolution of the quasi 16-day wave confirms that the wave activity is strongly decreased during a sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2012. Using satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite, we examine the zonal characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave and conclude that the observed waves above the mid-latitudinal stations Seoul and Bern are eastward-propagating s=−1 planetary waves with periods of 15 to 16 days, while the observed oscillation above the polar station Sodankylä is a standing oscillation with a period of approximately 20 days. The strongest relative wave amplitudes in water vapor during the investigated time period are approximately 15%. The wave activity varies strongly along a latitude circle. The activity of the quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012 is strongest over Northern Europe, the North Atlantic ocean and North-West Canada. The region of highest wave activity seems to be related to the position of the polar vortex. We conclude that the classic approach to characterize planetary waves zonally averaged along a latitude circle is not sufficient to explain the local observations because of the strong longitudinal dependence of the wave activity.

The response of four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties to field water deficit: leaf anti-oxidative protection and proteolytic activity

Introduction: Drought is one of the most significant factors that limit plant productivity. Oxidative stress is a secondary event in many unfavorable environmental conditions. Intracellular proteases have a role in the metabolism reorganisation and nutrient remobilization under stress. In order to under stand the relative significance of oxidative stress and proteolysis in the yield reduction under drought, four varieties of Triticum aestivum L. with different field drought resistance were examined. Methods: A two-year field experiment was conducted. Analyses were performed on the upper most leaf of control plants and plants under water deficitat the stages most critical for yield reduction under drought (from jointing till milk ripeness). Leaf water deficit and electrolyte leakage, malondyaldehyde level, activities and isoenzymes of superoxide dismutase, catalase and peroxidase, leaf protein content and proteolytic activity were studied. Yield components were analyzed. Results: A general trend of increasing the membrane in stability and accumulation of lipid hydroperoxides was observed with some differences among varieties, especially under drought. The anti-oxidative enzyme activities were progressively enhanced, as well as the azocaseinolytic activities. The leaf protein content decreased under drought at the last phase. Differences among varieties were observed in the parameters under study. They were compared to yield components` reduction under water deprivation.

The quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012

This study investigates the characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave in the mesosphere during boreal winter 2011/2012 using observations of water vapor from ground-based microwave radiometers and satellite data. The ground-based microwave radiometers are located in Seoul (South Korea, 37° N), Bern (Switzerland, 47° N) and Sodankylä (Finland, 67° N). The quasi 16-day wave is observed in the mesosphere at all three locations, while the dominant period increases with latitude from 15 days at Seoul to 20 days at Sodankylä. The observed evolution of the quasi 16-day wave confirms that the wave activity is strongly decreased during a sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2012. Using satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite, we examine the zonal characteristics of the quasi 16-day wave and conclude that the observed waves above the midlatitudinal stations Seoul and Bern are eastward-propagating s = −1 planetary waves with periods of 15 to 16 days, while the observed oscillation above the polar station Sodankylä is a standing wave with a period of approximately 20 days. The strongest relative wave amplitudes in water vapor during the investigated time period are approximately 15%. The wave activity varies strongly along a latitude circle. The activity of the quasi 16-day wave in mesospheric water vapor during boreal winter 2011/2012 is strongest over northern Europe, the North Atlantic Ocean and northwestern Canada. The region of highest wave activity seems to be related to the position of the polar vortex. We conclude that the classic approach to characterize planetary waves zonally averaged along a latitude circle is not sufficient to explain the local observations because of the strong longitudinal dependence of the wave activity.

A 13,600-year diatom oxygen isotope record from the South Carpathians (Romania): Reflection of winter conditions and possible links with North Atlantic circulation changes

This study provides a continuous lateglacial and Holocene record of diatom silica oxygen isotope changes (delta O-18(DIAT)) in a subalpine lake sediment sequence obtained from the Retezat Mts (Taul dintre Brazi, 1740 m a.s.l.). This through-flow, shallow, high-altitude lake with a surface area of only 0.4 ha has short water residence time and is predominantly fed by snowmelt and rainwater. Its delta O-18(DIAT) record principally reflects the oxygen isotope composition of the winter and spring precipitation, as diatom blooms occur mainly in the spring and early summer. Hence, changes in delta O-18(DIAT) are interpreted as seasonal scale changes: in the amount of winter precipitation. Low oxygen isotope values (27-28.5 parts per thousand) occurred during the lateglacial until 12,300 cal BP, followed by a sharp increase thereafter. In the Holocene delta O-18(DIAT) values ranged from 29 to 31 parts per thousand until 3200 cal BP, followed by generally lower values during the late Holocene (27-30 parts per thousand). Short-term decreases in the isotopic values were found between 10,140-9570, 9000-8500, 7800-7300, 6300-5800, 5500-5000 and at 8015, 4400, 4000 cal BP. After 3200 cal BP a decreasing trend was visible with the lowest values between 3100-2500 and after 2100 cal BP The general trend in the record suggests that contribution of winter precipitation was generally lower between 11,680 and 3200 cal BP, followed by increased contribution during the last millennia. The late Holocene decrease in delta O-18(DIAT) shows good agreement with the speleothem delta O-18, lake level and testate amoebae records from the Carpathian Mountains that also display gradual delta O-18 decrease and lake level/mire water table level rise after 3200 cal BR Strong positive correlation with North Atlantic circulation and solar activity proxies, such as the Austrian and Hungarian speleothem records, furthermore suggested that short-term increases in the isotopic ratios in the early and mid Holocene are likely connectable to high solar activity phases and high frequency of positive North Atlantic Oscillation indexes that may have resulted in decreased winter precipitation in this region.

The Anomalous Merging of the African and North Atlantic Jet Streams during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2010

The North Atlantic jet stream during winter 2010 was unusually zonal, so the typically separated Atlantic and African jets were merged into one zonal jet. Moreover, the latitude–height structure and temporal variability of the North Atlantic jet during this winter were more characteristic of the North Pacific. This work examines the possibility of a flow regime change from an eddy-driven to a mixed eddy–thermally driven jet. A monthly jet zonality index is defined, which shows that a persistent merged jet state has occurred in the past, both at the end of the 1960s and during a few sporadic months. The anomalously zonal jet is found to be associated with anomalous tropical Pacific diabatic heating and eddy anomalies similar to those found during a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state. A Lagrangian back-trajectory diagnosis of eight winters suggests the tropical Pacific is a source of momentum to the Atlantic and African jets and that this source was stronger during the winter of 2010. The results suggest that the combination of weak eddy variance and fluxes in the North Atlantic, along with strong tropical heating, act to push the jet toward a merged eddy–thermally driven state. The authors also find significant SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which reinforce the anomalous zonal winds, particularly in the eastern Atlantic.

Israels Bekenntnis Shema Israel in Vorträgen gehalten im Winter 5648

1888 im israelitischen Tempel zu Hamburg / von David Leimdörfer

Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.