Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.

Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

New wine into old skins: the enactment of literacy policy in Singapore

To better comprehend how educational reforms and classroom practice interconnect, we need to understand the epistemic environments created for learning, as well as the pedagogical activities and the modes of classroom discourse related to these activities. This article examines how a particular innovation in English literacy, Strategies for English Language Learning and Reading (STELLAR), has been implemented in Singapore. Outlining the broader curriculum initiatives, current literacy policy landscape and pedagogical effect of classroom discourse, we look at how English language teachers in grades 1 and 2 interpret the STELLAR curriculum. Situated within the larger international zeal of educational reform, Singapore presents a rich case for the study of policy–pedagogy initiatives, literacy instruction and cultural values. Adding to the existing policy enactment research, this investigation provides an opportunity to probe both the prospects and limitations of policy implementation associated with centralised educational structures, examination-oriented systems and societal cultural frameworks.

Tactical ethics: how the discourses of fairtrade and black economic empowerment change and interact in wine networks from South Africa to the UK.

This paper explores the spaces and power relations of ethical foodscapes. Ethics can offer a commodity a valuable unique selling point in a competitive marketplace but managing the changeable and multiple motivations for stakeholder participation throughout the commodity chain in order to utilise this opportunity is a complex negotiation. Through exploring the spaces and relations within three South African– UK ethical wine networks, the discursive tactics used to sustain these are uncovered. The discourses of Fairtrade, Black Economic Empowerment and organics are highly adaptive, interacting with each other in such a way as to always be contextually appealing. This ‘tactical mutability’ is combined with ‘scales of knowing’, which, this paper argues, are essential for network durability. ‘Scales of knowing’ refers to the recognition by stakeholders of the potential for different articulations of a discourse within the network, which combines with ‘tactical mutability’ to allow for a scalar, contextual and ’knowing’ (im)mutability to ensure the discourse’s continued appeal. However, even when one discourse is the ‘lead’ it always folds within it linkages to other ethical discourses at work, suggesting that ethical practice is mutually supportive discursively. This means that at the producer end ethical interactions may offer more capacity to enact genuine transformation than the solo operations of a discourse.

Phenolic acid intake, delivered via moderate champagne wine consumption, improves spatial working memory via the modulation of hippocampal and cortical protein expression/activation.

Aims: While much data exist for the effects of flavonoid-rich foods on spatial memory in rodents, there are no such data for foods/beverages predominantly containing hydroxycinnamates and phenolic acids. To address this, we investigated the effects of moderate Champagne wine intake, which is rich in these components, on spatial memory and related mechanisms relative to the alcohol- and energy-matched controls. Results: In contrast to the isocaloric and alcohol-matched controls, supplementation with Champagne wine (1.78 ml/kg BW, alcohol 12.5% vol.) for 6 weeks led to an improvement in spatial working memory in aged rodents. Targeted protein arrays indicated that these behavioral effects were paralleled by the differential expression of a number of hippocampal and cortical proteins (relative to the isocaloric control group), including those involved in signal transduction, neuroplasticity, apoptosis, and cell cycle regulation. Western immunoblotting confirmed the differential modulation of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, cAMP response-element-binding protein (CREB), p38, dystrophin, 2',3'-cyclic-nucleotide 3'-phosphodiesterase, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), and Bcl-xL in response to Champagne supplementation compared to the control drink, and the modulation of mTOR, Bcl-xL, and CREB in response to alcohol supplementation. Innovation: Our data suggest that smaller phenolics such as gallic acid, protocatechuic acid, tyrosol, caftaric acid, and caffeic acid, in addition to flavonoids, are capable of exerting improvements in spatial memory via the modulation in hippocampal signaling and protein expression. Conclusion: Changes in spatial working memory induced by the Champagne supplementation are linked to the effects of absorbed phenolics on cytoskeletal proteins, neurotrophin expression, and the effects of alcohol on the regulation of apoptotic events in the hippocampus and cortex. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 00, 000-000.

Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: an indicator of residential electricity consumption

The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy.

Farmers' views on the future of olive farming in Andalusia, Spain

Andalusia, located in southern Spain, is the major olive production area worldwide. Due to the relevance of this agricultural sector on the regional income, this article investigates olive farmer's perspectives regarding olive production after their retirement and potential factors affecting these including economic, social, environmental and spatial factors. We use data from a survey conducted to 431 olive farmers in Andalusia in 2010. Our findings show spatial dependence in explaining farmer's views on the future of olive farming at relatively small distances. In addition other factors such as bad economic performance, erosion or olive diseases affect farmer's perception. We make propositions on what elements should be taking into account when designing agricultural policies aiming at guaranteeing the sustainability of olive farming in future.

Risk perception and commitment to reduce global climate change in Spain

An online national survey among the Spanish population (n = 602) was conducted to examine the factors underlying a person’s support for commitments to global climate change reductions. Multiple hierarchical regression analysis was conducted in four steps and a structural equations model was tested. A survey tool designed by the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication was applied in order to build scales for the variables introduced in the study. The results show that perceived consumer effectiveness and risk perception are determinant factors of commitment to mitigating global climate change. However, there are differences in the influence that other factors, such as socio-demographics, view of nature and cultural cognition, have on the last predicted variable.

First contribution of mites (Acari) to the forensic analysis of hanged corpses: a case study from Spain

This case study from North Spain, highlights the importance of the collection of mites in addition to insects, from crime scenes or corpses subjected to environmental constraints that reduce or minimise insect activity, such as hanged corpses. In addition, this analysis highlights the relevance of arthropods’ collection in the field, even after the corpse has been moved away for autopsy. Four species of mites, phoretic on carrion (Silphidae) and rove (Staphylinidae) beetles, complemented and reinforced the autopsy analysis as well as the scarce information provided by insect activity. Poecilochirus carabi Canestrini & Canestrini, 1882 and Poecilochirus (Physoparasitus) davydovae Hyatt, 1980 (Mesostigmata: Parasitidae) were found in association with two Silphidae, Nicrophorus Fabricius, 1775 and Necrodes Leach, 1815, only when sampled in the autopsy room; this is suggestive of host-switching of mites and was likely due to the lack of availability of specific carriers in the field. The interpretation of the activity of Parasitidae mites both in the field and the autopsy room allows a better understanding of the timing and circumstances of decomposition. Phoretic deutonymphs of Pelzneria Scheucher 1957 (Astigmata: Histiostomatidae) were highly abundant, mostly P. crenulata Oudemans, 1909 and are reported for the first time on a Staphylinidae rove beetle, Creophilus maxillosus (L., 1758). Surprisingly, in this case study no Pelzneria were associated with the Silphidae found, which are their most common hosts, such as Necrodes littoralis (L., 1758) and Nicrophorus interruptus (Stephens, 1830). All histiostomatids were removed from the staphylinid (rove beetle) collected from the soil, at the scene of death, suggesting a recent arrival of the beetle. The occurrence of Staphylinidae beetles and their associated mites, such as Parasitidae and Pelzneria, and the information they provided would have been easily overlooked or lost if only the autopsy sampling would have been considered in the analysis of the case. The four mite species are reported for the first time for the Iberian Peninsula.

Land use and climate change impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in semi-arid Spain

Purpose The sensitivity of soil organic carbon to global change drivers, according to the depth profile, is receiving increasing attention because of its importance in the global carbon cycle and its potential feedback to climate change. A better knowledge of the vertical distribution of SOC and its controlling factors—the aim of this study—will help scientists predict the consequences of global change. Materials and methods The study area was the Murcia Province (S.E. Spain) under semiarid Mediterranean conditions. The database used consists of 312 soil profiles collected in a systematic grid, each 12 km2 covering a total area of 11,004 km2. Statistical analysis to study the relationships between SOC concentration and control factors in different soil use scenarios was conducted at fixed depths of 0–20, 20–40, 40–60, and 60–100 cm. Results and discussion SOC concentration in the top 40 cm ranged between 6.1 and 31.5 g kg−1, with significant differences according to land use, soil type and lithology, while below this depth, no differences were observed (SOC concentration 2.1–6.8 g kg−1). The ANOVA showed that land use was the most important factor controlling SOC concentration in the 0–40 cm depth. Significant differences were found in the relative importance of environmental and textural factors according to land use and soil depth. In forestland, mean annual precipitation and texture were the main predictors of SOC, while in cropland and shrubland, the main predictors were mean annual temperature and lithology. Total SOC stored in the top 1 m in the region was about 79 Tg with a low mean density of 7.18 kg Cm−3. The vertical distribution of SOC was shallower in forestland and deeper in cropland. A reduction in rainfall would lead to SOC decrease in forestland and shrubland, and an increase of mean annual temperature would adversely affect SOC in croplands and shrubland. With increasing depth, the relative importance of climatic factors decreases and texture becomes more important in controlling SOC in all land uses. Conclusions Due to climate change, impacts will be much greater in surface SOC, the strategies for C sequestration should be focused on subsoil sequestration, which was hindered in forestland due to bedrock limitations to soil depth. In these conditions, sequestration in cropland through appropriate management practices is recommended.

Geophysical characterization of the complex dynamics of groundwater and seawater exchange in a highly stressed aquifer system linked to a coastal lagoon (SE Spain)

Anthropogenic pressure influences the two-way interactions between shallow aquifers and coastal lagoons. Aquifer overexploitation may lead to seawater intrusion, and aquifer recharge from rainfall plus irrigation may, in turn, increase the groundwater discharge into the lagoon. We analyse the evolution, since the 1950s up to the present, of the interactions between the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary aquifer and the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain). This is a very heterogeneous and anisotropic detrital aquifer, where aquifer–lagoon interface has a very irregular geometry. Using electrical resistivity tomography, we clearly identified the freshwater–saltwater transition zone and detected areas affected by seawater intrusion. Severity of the intrusion was spatially variable and significantly related to the density of irrigation wells in 1950s–1960s, suggesting the role of groundwater overexploitation. We distinguish two different mechanisms by which water from the sea invades the land: (a) horizontal advance of the interface due to a wide exploitation area and (b) vertical rise (upconing) caused by local intensive pumping. In general, shallow parts of the geophysical profiles show higher electrical resistivity associated with freshwater mainly coming from irrigation return flows, with water resources mostly from deep confined aquifers and imported from Tagus river, 400 km north. This indicates a likely reversal of the former seawater intrusion process.

Are we there yet? Exploring empowerment at the microscale in the South African wine industry

Empowerment is a standard but ambiguous element of development rhetoric and so, through the socially complex and contested terrain of South Africa, this paper explores its potential to contribute to inclusive development. Investigating micro-level engagements with the national strategy of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) in the South African wine industry highlights the limitations, but also potential, of this single domain approach. However, latent paternalism, entrenched interests and a ‘dislocated blackness’ maintain a complex racial politics that shapes both power relations and the opportunities for transformation within the industry. Nonetheless, while B-BBEE may not, in reality, be broad-based its manifestations are contributing to challenging racist structures and normalising changing attitudes. This paper concludes that, to be transformative, empowerment needs to be re-embedded within South Africa as a multi-scalar, multi-dimensional dialogue and, despite the continuation of structural constraints, positions the local as a critical scale at which to initiate broader social change.

Diet and lifestyle in Bronze Age Northwest Spain: the collective burial of Cova do Santo

A multidisciplinary investigation of the collective burial of Cova do Santo is presented as a novel approach to understand daily life during the Bronze Age in Northwest Iberia. The research is focused on three main aspects: i) taphonomy and patterns of disposal, ii) paleopathology and -demography as indicators of health status and lifestyle, and iii) stable isotope analysis to reconstruct paleodiet and to investigate the timing of the introduction of millet to the Iberian Peninsula. Osteological analyses were performed on 64 bones (61 human and 3 animal); additionally, bone collagen was extracted from 15 samples (13 human and 2 animal) and analyzed for its carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes composition. The radiocarbon age of the human remains is consistent with the Middle Bronze Age (c. 1890 to 1600 cal BC). The recovered remains belonged to a minimum number of 14 individuals with an estimated age at death of forty years or younger. This relatively young age is in contrast to a high prevalence of degenerative joint disease in the group. The isotopic results suggest a very homogeneous diet, which was almost exclusively based on C3 plants and terrestrial animal products. Overall, the data suggest that the studied population belonged to a period prior to the introduction of spring or summer-grown crops such as millets. The collective burial from the cave of Cova de Santo, Galicia, currently represents the largest assemblage of prehistoric human remains from Northwest Spain and the relatively good preservation of the bones offers a unique opportunity to investigate daily life in Northern Iberia during the Bronze Age.