Parallel nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition for natural gas production network planning under uncertainty

A scenario-based two-stage stochastic programming model for gas production network planning under uncertainty is usually a large-scale nonconvex mixed-integer nonlinear programme (MINLP), which can be efficiently solved to global optimality with nonconvex generalized Benders decomposition (NGBD). This paper is concerned with the parallelization of NGBD to exploit multiple available computing resources. Three parallelization strategies are proposed, namely, naive scenario parallelization, adaptive scenario parallelization, and adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization. Case study of two industrial natural gas production network planning problems shows that, while the NGBD without parallelization is already faster than a state-of-the-art global optimization solver by an order of magnitude, the parallelization can improve the efficiency by several times on computers with multicore processors. The adaptive scenario and bounding parallelization achieves the best overall performance among the three proposed parallelization strategies.

A cloud-based system for measuring radiation treatment plan similarity

PURPOSE: Radiation therapy is used to treat cancer using carefully designed plans that maximize the radiation dose delivered to the target and minimize damage to healthy tissue, with the dose administered over multiple occasions. Creating treatment plans is a laborious process and presents an obstacle to more frequent replanning, which remains an unsolved problem. However, in between new plans being created, the patient's anatomy can change due to multiple factors including reduction in tumor size and loss of weight, which results in poorer patient outcomes. Cloud computing is a newer technology that is slowly being used for medical applications with promising results. The objective of this work was to design and build a system that could analyze a database of previously created treatment plans, which are stored with their associated anatomical information in studies, to find the one with the most similar anatomy to a new patient. The analyses would be performed in parallel on the cloud to decrease the computation time of finding this plan. METHODS: The system used SlicerRT, a radiation therapy toolkit for the open-source platform 3D Slicer, for its tools to perform the similarity analysis algorithm. Amazon Web Services was used for the cloud instances on which the analyses were performed, as well as for storage of the radiation therapy studies and messaging between the instances and a master local computer. A module was built in SlicerRT to provide the user with an interface to direct the system on the cloud, as well as to perform other related tasks. RESULTS: The cloud-based system out-performed previous methods of conducting the similarity analyses in terms of time, as it analyzed 100 studies in approximately 13 minutes, and produced the same similarity values as those methods. It also scaled up to larger numbers of studies to analyze in the database with a small increase in computation time of just over 2 minutes. CONCLUSION: This system successfully analyzes a large database of radiation therapy studies and finds the one that is most similar to a new patient, which represents a potential step forward in achieving feasible adaptive radiation therapy replanning.

A strategy-based framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – the Hamburg case study

Climate change and continuous urbanization contribute to an increased urban vulnerability towards flooding. Only relying on traditional flood control measures is recognized as inadequate, since the damage can be catastrophic if flood controls fail. The idea of a flood-resilient city – one which can withstand or adapt to a flood event without being harmed in its functionality – seems promising. But what does resilience actually mean when it is applied to urban environments exposed to flood risk, and how can resilience be achieved? This paper presents a heuristic framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities, for scientists and policy-makers alike. It enriches the current literature on flood resilience by clarifying the meaning of its three key characteristics – robustness, adaptability and transformability – and identifying important components to implement resilience strategies. The resilience discussion moves a step forward, from predominantly defining resilience to generating insight into “doing” resilience in practice. The framework is illustrated with two case studies from Hamburg, showing that resilience, and particularly the underlying notions of adaptability and transformability, first and foremost require further capacity-building among public as well as private stakeholders. The case studies suggest that flood resilience is currently not enough motivation to move from traditional to more resilient flood protection schemes in practice; rather, it needs to be integrated into a bigger urban agenda.

Housing and Planning in London under the Conservative Government: Spatial impacts, social polarisation, sustainable development and social justice

This paper will be based on my continuing research on planning and housing development in London. It will focus on the proposals in the Government’s Housing and Planning Bill, which are likely to be enacted in Spring 2016. It will review the evidence of potential spatial impacts in terms of the supply of existing affordable homes and the location and affordability of new supply. This will be related to a review of the alternative development options for London’s growth in the context of the Mayor of London’s draft 2050 Infrastructure Plan. The paper will analyse the potential impact of new Government policy and legislation on whether London’s housing requirements can be delivered in accordance with the objectives of sustainable planning and social justice, and will also consider the constraints on the ability of the new Mayor of London, to be elected in May 2016 to achieve manifesto commitments.

A Global Review on Peri-Urban Development and Planning

Urban regions worldwide are increasingly facing the challenge of dealing with highly dynamic metropolitan growth and, at the same time, institutional changes like decentralisation and globalisation. These kinds of changes express themselves most evidently in peri-urban areas, where urban and rural life meets. These peri-urban areas in particular have been the stage for rapid physical, social and economic transformations, both in developed and developing countries. Peri-urbanization takes place here. Based on literature review, this paper presents an effort to identify generic attributes of peri-urbanisation and the way in which development planning tends to reply. Three major attributes are identified: peri-urban space (the spatial expression of peri-urban development), peri-urban life (the functional appearance of land uses, activities and peri-urban innovation), and peri-urban change (a causal and temporal perspective featuring flows and drivers of change). It is also shown that prevalent institutional replies in planning and development generally fail to acknowledge the dynamic and increasingly fragmented attributes of global peri-urbanisation.

Place-Based Evaluation for Infrastructure and Spatial Projects: An Introduction

This book brings together experts in the fields of spatial planning, landuse and infrastructure management to explore the emerging agenda of spatially-oriented integrated evaluation. It weaves together the latest theories, case studies, methods, policy and practice to examine and assess the values, impacts, benefits and the overall success in integrated land-use management. In doing so, the book clarifies the nature and roles of evaluation and puts forward guidance for future policy and practice.

Place-Based Evaluation for Integrated Land-Use Management

This book brings together experts in the fields of spatial planning, landuse and infrastructure management to explore the emerging agenda of spatially-oriented integrated evaluation. It weaves together the latest theories, case studies, methods, policy and practice to examine and assess the values, impacts, benefits and the overall success in integrated land-use management. In doing so, the book clarifies the nature and roles of evaluation and puts forward guidance for future policy and practice.

How coastal strategic planning reflects interrelationships between ecosystem services: a four-step method

Explicit and integrated inclusion of ecosystem services (ESs) and their interrelationships can improve the quality of strategic plans and decision-making processes. However, there is little systematic analysis of how ES interrelationships are framed in policy language, particularly in coastal planning discourse. The objective of this paper is therefore to present a four-step method, based on content analysis, to assess ES interrelationships in coastal strategic planning documents. The method consists of: 1) selecting strategic plans; 2) identifying ESs; 3) identifying drivers, ESs and their effects; and 4) constructing relational diagrams. The four-step method is applied to a case of Jiaozhou Bay in China, demonstrating its capacity of identifying which drivers and ES trade-offs and synergies are formulated in coastal strategic plans. The method is helpful to identify overlooked ES interrelationships, inform temporal and spatial issues, and assess the continuity of plans' attention to interrelationships. The main methodological contributions are discussed by emphasizing its broad scope of drivers and ESs and an explicit distinction among the cause of relationships. The developed method also has the potential of cross-fertilizing other kinds of approaches and facilitating practical planning processes.

Uses of agent-based modeling for health communication: the TELL ME case study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals’ protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

Rules for the governance of coastal and marine ecosystem services: An evaluative framework based on the IAD framework

There is an increasing need for a comprehensive institutional understanding pertaining to ecosystem services (ESs) in coastal and marine fields. This paper develops a systematic framework to inform coastal and marine governance about the integration of ES concepts. First, as a theoretical basis, we analyze the generic rules that are part of the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework. Second, by an extensive literature review, we formulate a set of ES-specific rules and develop an evaluative framework for coastal and marine governance. Third, we examine this evaluative framework in a specific action situation, namely coastal strategic planning concerning Qingdao, China. Results from the literature review and the case study reveal that when designing ES-specific rules for coastal and marine governance, there are several socio-spatial and economic aspects that should be taken into account: (1) conceive of stakeholders as ES users, (2) capture the effect of ecological scaling, (3) understand ES interactions and clarify indirect impacts and causalities, (4) account for ES values, and (5) draw on economic choices for use rights to deal with ES issues.

Non-conventional advertising formats in television versus spots: An analysis based on the generated recall

Advertising investment and audience figures indicate that television continues to lead as a mass advertising medium. However, its effectiveness is questioned due to problems such as zapping, saturation and audience fragmentation. This has favoured the development of non-conventional advertising formats. This study provides empirical evidence for the theoretical development. This investigation analyzes the recall generated by four non-conventional advertising formats in a real environment: short programme (branded content), television sponsorship, internal and external telepromotion versus the more conventional spot. The methodology employed has integrated secondary data with primary data from computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) were performed ad-hoc on a sample of 2000 individuals, aged 16 to 65, representative of the total television audience. Our findings show that non-conventional advertising formats are more effective at a cognitive level, as they generate higher levels of both unaided and aided recall, in all analyzed formats when compared to the spot.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Unstructured grid modelling of offshore wind farm impacts on seasonally stratified shelf seas

Shelf seas comprise approximately 7% of the world’s oceans and host enormous economic activity. Development of energy installations (e.g. Offshore Wind Farms (OWFs), tidal turbines) in response to increased demand for renewable energy requires a careful analysis of potential impacts. Recent remote sensing observations have identified kilometrescale impacts from OWFs. Existing modelling evaluating monopile impacts has fallen into two camps: small-scale models with individually resolved turbines looking at local effects; and large-scale analyses but with sub-grid scale turbine parameterisations. This work straddles both scales through a 3D unstructured grid model (FVCOM): wind turbine monopiles in the eastern Irish Sea are explicitly described in the grid whilst the overall grid domain covers the south-western UK shelf. Localised regions of decreased velocity extend up to 250 times the monopile diameter away from the monopile. Shelf-wide, the amplitude of the M2 tidal constituent increases by up to 7%. The turbines enhance localised vertical mixing which decreases seasonal stratification. The spatial extent of this extends well beyond the turbines into the surrounding seas. With significant expansion of OWFs on continental shelves, this work highlights the importance of how OWFs may impact coastal (e.g. increased flooding risk) and offshore (e.g. stratification and nutrient cycling) areas.

Individual-based modelling of the development and transport of a Karenia mikimotoi bloom on the North-West European continental shelf

In 2006, a large and prolonged bloom of the dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi occurred in Scottish coastal waters, causing extensive mortalities of benthic organisms including annelids and molluscs and some species of fish ( Davidson et al., 2009). A coupled hydrodynamic-algal transport model was developed to track the progression of the bloom around the Scottish coast during June–September 2006 and hence investigate the processes controlling the bloom dynamics. Within this individual-based model, cells were capable of growth, mortality and phototaxis and were transported by physical processes of advection and turbulent diffusion, using current velocities extracted from operational simulations of the MRCS ocean circulation model of the North-west European continental shelf. Vertical and horizontal turbulent diffusion of cells are treated using a random walk approach. Comparison of model output with remotely sensed chlorophyll concentrations and cell counts from coastal monitoring stations indicated that it was necessary to include multiple spatially distinct seed populations of K. mikimotoi at separate locations on the shelf edge to capture the qualitative pattern of bloom transport and development. We interpret this as indicating that the source population was being transported northwards by the Hebridean slope current from where colonies of K. mikimotoi were injected onto the continental shelf by eddies or other transient exchange processes. The model was used to investigate the effects on simulated K. mikimotoi transport and dispersal of: (1) the distribution of the initial seed population; (2) algal growth and mortality; (3) water temperature; (4) the vertical movement of particles by diurnal migration and eddy diffusion; (5) the relative role of the shelf edge and coastal currents; (6) the role of wind forcing. The numerical experiments emphasized the requirement for a physiologically based biological model and indicated that improved modelling of future blooms will potentially benefit from better parameterisation of temperature dependence of both growth and mortality and finer spatial and temporal hydrodynamic resolution.