Discrete time representation of continuous time ARMA processes

This paper derives exact discrete time representations for data generated by a continuous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) system with mixed stock and flow data. The representations for systems comprised entirely of stocks or of flows are also given. In each case the discrete time representations are shown to be of ARMA form, the orders depending on those of the continuous time system. Three examples and applications are also provided, two of which concern the stationary ARMA(2, 1) model with stock variables (with applications to sunspot data and a short-term interest rate) and one concerning the nonstationary ARMA(2, 1) model with a flow variable (with an application to U.S. nondurable consumers’ expenditure). In all three examples the presence of an MA(1) component in the continuous time system has a dramatic impact on eradicating unaccounted-for serial correlation that is present in the discrete time version of the ARMA(2, 0) specification, even though the form of the discrete time model is ARMA(2, 1) for both models.

Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

Eternal peace, perpetual war? A critical investigation into Kant's conceptualisations of war

Most discussions of Immanuel Kant's political theory of international politics focus on his work on Eternal Peace and its normative and empirical relevance for contemporary international relations and international law. Yet for all his concern with peace, Kant's work is characterised by a fascinating preoccupation with the concept of war and its role in human history. The purpose of this essay is to investigate critically Kant's different conceptualisations of war and to evaluate his writing as a critique against contemporary versions of Liberal war and peace, as well as recent attempts to reduce war to an immanent logic of biopolitics.

The ecology of crusading: investigating the environmental impact of holy war and colonisation at the frontiers of medieval Europe

The Crusades in the Near East, eastern Baltic and Iberian Peninsula (in the context of the Reconquest/reconquista) were accompanied by processes of colonisation, characterising the expansion of medieval Europe and resulting in the creation of frontier societies at the fringes of Christendom. Colonisation was closely associated with — indeed, depended on — the exploitation of local environments, but this dimension is largely missing from studies of the crusading frontiers. This paper, the product of a European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop on 'The Ecology of Crusading' in 2009, surveys the potential for investigating the environmental impact of the crusading movement in all three frontier regions. It considers a diverse range of archaeological, palaeoenvironmental and written sources, with the aim of situating the societies created by the Crusades within the context of medieval colonisation and human ecological niche construction. It demonstrates that an abundant range of data exists for developing this largely neglected and disparately studied aspect of medieval frontier societies into a significant research programme.

Building a left coast: the legacy of the California Popular Front and the challenge to Cold War liberalism in the post-world war two era

The Cold War in the late 1940s blunted attempts by the Truman administration to extend the scope of government in areas such as health care and civil rights. In California, the combined weakness of the Democratic Party in electoral politics and the importance of fellow travelers and communists in state liberal politics made the problem of how to advance the left at a time of heightened Cold War tensions particularly acute. Yet by the early 1960s a new generation of liberal politicians had gained political power in the Golden State and was constructing a greatly expanded welfare system as a way of cementing their hold on power. In this article I argue that the New Politics of the 1970s, shaped nationally by Vietnam and by the social upheavals of the 1960s over questions of race, gender, sexuality, and economic rights, possessed particular power in California because many activists drew on the longer-term experiences of a liberal politics receptive to earlier anti-Cold War struggles. A desire to use political involvement as a form of social networking had given California a strong Popular Front, and in some respects the power of new liberalism was an offspring of those earlier battles.

Perspectives on community representation within the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: experiences from south-east Madagascar

This article critically examines the nature and quality of governance in community representation and civil society engagement in the context of trans-national large-scale mining, drawing on experiences in the Anosy Region of south-east Madagascar. An exploration of functional relationships between government, mining business and civil society stakeholders reveals an equivocal legitimacy of certain civil society representatives, created by state manipulation, which contributes to community disempowerment. The appointment of local government officials, rather than election, creates a hierarchy of upward dependencies and a culture where the majority of officials express similar views and political alliances. As a consequence, community resistance is suppressed. Voluntary mechanisms such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) advocate community stakeholder engagement in decision making processes as a measure to achieve public accountability. In many developing countries, where there is a lack of transparency and high levels of corruption, the value of this engagement, however, is debatable. Findings from this study indicate that the power relationships which exist between stakeholders in the highly lucrative mining industry override efforts to achieve "good governance" through voluntary community engagement. The continuing challenge lies in identifying where the responsibility sits in order to address this power struggle to achieve fair representation.

Incorporating languages into histories of war: a research journey

This article discusses the ways in which languages can be integrated into histories of war and conflict, by exploring ongoing research in two case studies: the liberation and occupation of Western Europe (1944–47), and peacekeeping/peace building in Bosnia-Herzegovina (1995–2000). The article suggests that three methodological approaches have been of particular value in this research: adopting an historical framework; following the “translation” of languages into war situations; and contextualizing the figure of the interpreter/translator. The process of incorporating languages into histories of conflict, the article argues, has helped to uncover a broader languages landscape within the theatres of war.