Proposta de um método probabilístico de estimativa de custos de construção.

Projetos de construção são caracterizados pela escala, complexidade e seus riscos. Não é incomum encontrar planejamento e definição de escopo incompletos o que leva a aumento de custos e prazos. O objetivo desse trabalho é descrever um método de avaliação de riscos de forma a aumentar a previsibilidade da estimativa de custos do empreendimento. Para isso foram utilizados conceitos de gerenciamento de projetos, de simulação e de analise de riscos descritos na literatura para a constituição de um método de análise de riscos em estimativa de custos. A aplicação do método proposto em comparação com o método tradicional traz vantagens no que diz respeito à abrangência da análise. Enquanto pelo método tradicional a análise do empreendimento se faz por meio de suas tarefas, o método proposto analisa de forma distinta o planejamento do empreendimento nas suas três dimensões fundamentais: escopo, prazo e custo.

Age determination and growth of the night shark (Carcharhinus signatus) off the northeastern Brazilian coast

Age and growth of the night shark (Carcharhinus signatus) from areas off northeastern Brazil were determined from 317 unstained vertebral sections of 182 males (113–215 cm total length [TL]), 132 females (111.5–234.9 cm) and three individuals of unknown sex (169–242 cm). Although marginal increment (MI) analysis suggests that band formation occurs in the third and fourth trimesters in juveniles, it was inconclusive for adults. Thus, it was assumed that one band is formed annually. Births that occur over a protracted period may be the most important source of bias in MI analysis. An estimated average percent error of 2.4% was found in readings for individuals between two and seventeen years. The von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) showed no significant differences between sexes, and the model derived from back-calculated mean length at age best represented growth for the species (L∞=270 cm, K=0.11/yr, t0=–2.71 yr) when compared to the observed mean lengths at age and the Fabens’ method. Length-frequency analysis on 1055 specimens (93–260 cm) was used to verify age determination. Back-calculated size at birth was 66.8 cm and maturity was reached at 180–190 cm (age 8) for males and 200–205 cm (age ten) for females. Age composition, estimated from an age-length key, indicated that juveniles predominate in commercial catches, representing 74.3% of the catch. A growth rate of 25.4 cm/yr was estimated from birth to the first band (i.e. juveniles grow 38% of their birth length during the first year), and a growth rate of 8.55 cm/yr was estimated for eight- to ten-year-old adults.

An efficient frequency-domain algorithm for wave scattering problems with application to jet noise

This paper presents a pseudo-time-step method to calculate a (vector) Green function for the adjoint linearised Euler equations as a scattering problem in the frequency domain, for use as a jet-noise propagation prediction tool. A method of selecting the acoustics-related solution in a truncated spatial domain while suppressing any possible shear-layer-type instability is presented. Numerical tests for 3-D axisymmetrical parallel mean flows against semi-analytical reference solutions indicate that the new iterative algorithm is capable of producing accurate solutions with modest computational requirements.

Understanding and communicating the value of technology: A process perspective

Technological investment is an important driver of innovation and the evaluation of technology potential is becoming increasingly important in this context. Although there is a range of possible approaches and tools for understanding and communicating the value of technology to potential customers, not all are useful or accessible in practice, where the situation is often complex and constantly evolving. Although many companies have their own customised processes in place for securing approval for technology development, often combining several techniques, very few empirical studies have been performed to learn from these practices and provide an overall view of the process of ";selling"; technologies internally or externally. In this paper, the current literature and practice related to technology valuation is reviewed and summarised in a five step process for building a business case for technology investment that gives guidance on where and when to use specific valuation tools. The seller or proposer's perspective is taken and consultative sales techniques incorporated. This provides a flexible reference for R&D managers and adds to the body of literature on the selection and use of valuation tools. A user friendly guide has been published detailing the five step approach. © 2011 IEEE.

Phylogenetic relationships of the macaques (Cercopithecidae : Macaca), inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequences

To study the phylogenetic relationships of the macaques, five gene fragments were sequenced from 40 individuals of eight species: Macaca mulatta, M. cyclopis, M. fascicularis, M. arctoides, M. assamensis, M. thibetana, M. silenus, and M. leonina. In addition, sequences of M. sylvanus were obtained from Genbank. A baboon was used as the outgroup. The phylogenetic trees were constructed using maximum-parsimony and Bayesian methods. Because five gene fragments were from the mitochondrial genome and were inherited as a single entity without recombination, we combined the five genes into a single analysis. The parsimony bootstrap proportions we obtained were higher than those from earlier studies based on the combined mtDNA dataset. Excluding M. arctoides, our results are generally consistent with the classification of Delson (1980). Our phylogenetic analyses agree with earlier studies suggesting that the mitochondrial lineages of M. arctoides share a close evolutionary relationship with the mitochondrial lineages of the fascicularis group of macaques (and M. fascicularis, specifically). M. mulatta (with respect to M. cyclopis), M. assamensis assamensis (with respect to M. thibetana), and M. leonina (with respect to M. silenus) are paraphyletic based on our analysis of mitochondrial genes.

体外分步诱导猕猴胚胎干细胞为肝细胞

采用分阶段诱导方法模拟肝细胞体内发育,建立体外诱导猕猴胚胎干细胞(rhesus monkey embryonic stem cells,rESCs)分化为成熟肝细胞的体系,对研究以ES细胞为基础的临床替代治疗人类晚期肝脏疾病具有重要的意义.将rESCs团块在含有10%FBS的DMEM培养基中悬浮培养11d,形成含有早期内胚层细胞的拟胚体(embryonic bodies,EB)并开始表达早期肝细胞的部分基因或蛋白,将11日龄EB接种至包被有ECM的组织培养皿,分阶段加入aFGF、BMP-4及OSM.经aFGF和BMP-4诱导7～10d后,分化细胞形态变为具有双核的多角形细胞,表达早期和中期肝细胞特异性的蛋白(AFP、ALB及CK18)和基因(AFP、ALB、APOH,G-6-P及TAT),并具有储存糖原的功能.撤除aFGF和BMP-4,添加OSM继续诱导7～10 d,分化的细胞表达成熟肝细胞所特有基因CYP1B1和ADH1C,并具有摄取靛青绿的能力.

Hepatocyte growth factor enhances the generation of high-purity oligodendrocytes from human embryonic stem cells

Generation of homogeneous oligodendrocytes as donor cells is essential for human embryonic stem cell (hESC)-based cell therapy for demylinating diseases. Herein we present a novel method for efficiently obtaining mature oligodendrocytes from hESCs with high purity (79.7 +/- 6.9%), using hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) and G5 supplement(containing insulin, transferrin, selenite, biotin, hydrocortisone, basic fibroblast growth factor and epidermal growth factor) in a four-step method. We induced hESCs into neural progenitors (NP) with HGF (5 ng/ml) and G5 (1 x) supplemented medium in an adherent differentiation system. The purified NPs were amplified in suspension as neurospheres for 1 month, and terminal oligodendrocyte differentiation was then induced by G5 supplement withdrawal and HGF treatment (20 ng/ml). The cells generated displayed typical morphologies of mature oligodendrocytes and expressed oligodendrocyte markers O4 and myelin basic protein (MBP). Our result revealed that HGF significantly enhanced the proliferation of hESC-derived NPs and promoted the differentiation as well as the maturation of oligodendrocytes from NPs. Further studies suggest that HGF/c-Met signaling pathway might play an important role in oligodendrocyte differentiation in our system. Our studies provide a means for generating the clinically relevant cell type and a platform for deciphering the molecular mechanisms that control oligodendrocyte differentiation. (C) 2009 International Society of Differentiation. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny and zoogeography of the cyprinid hemicultrine group (Cyprinidae : Cultrinae)

Ying-Gui Dai and Jun-Xing Yang (2003) Phylogeny and zoogeography of the cyprinid hemicultrine group (Cyprinidae: Cultrinae). Zoological Studies 42(1): 73-92. The hemicultrine group consists of middle-sized cyprinids in Asia which taxonomically belong to the subfamily Cultrinae in the Cyprinidae (Cypriniformes), but there has been no convincing generic phylogenetic hypothesis proposal so far. On the basis of a morphological study of 65 specimens soaked in formalin and 14 skeletal specimens of 8 species in 6 genera within the hemicultrine group as an ingroup, a 70-character matrix was obtained. The generic phylogenetic relationships of the hemicultrine group are hypothesized with the matrix by the method of cladistic analysis. When the species Rasborinus lineatus or Cultrichthys erythropterus is used as the sole outgroup, the matrix gives the same single most-parsimonious tree of generic phylogenetic relationships within the hemicultrine group which shows that the hemicultrine group forms a monophyletic group. However, when Rasborinus lineatus is used as the sole outgroup and Cultrichthys erythropterus and Paralaubuca barroni are included in the ingroup, the hemicultrine group is validated to represent a paraphyletic group, and the hemicultrine group and the genus Paralaubuca form a monophyletic group. The tree of generic relationships and zoogeography of the monophyletic group comprising the hemicultrine group and the genus Paralaubuca suggest the following: (1) The monophyletic group comprises 2 smaller monophyletic groups: the genera Hemiculterella + Pseudohemiculter + Hainania and the genera Hemiculter + Paralaubuca + Pseudolaubuca + Toxabramis. (2) The sister groups of the monophyletic group show both overlapping and vicariant distribution patterns; therefore the generic distribution pattern of the monophyletic group maybe have resulted from both dispersal and vicariance events. (3) The monophyletic group probably originated on the Asian mainland from the Yangtze River to the Pearl River and on Hainan Island in China. (4) The monophyletic group probably originated after the Japanese Archipelago was separated from the Asian mainland at the beginning of the Quaternary Period in the Cenozoic but before Taiwan, Hainan Island, and Indonesia were completely isolated from the Asian mainland after the ice age in the Quaternary Period. (5) Speciation of the genus Hemiculter should have been the earliest, and those of the genera Paralaubuca, Pseudolaubuca, and Hainania ought to be the latest in the process of evolution of this monophyletic group. http://www.sinica.edu.tw/zool/zoolstud/42.1/73.pdf.

Future-proofed energy design for dwellings: Case studies from England and application to the Code for Sustainable Homes

This paper investigates 'future-proofing' as an unexplored yet all-important aspect in the design of low-energy dwellings. It refers particularly to adopting lifecycle thinking and accommodating risks and uncertainties in the selection of fabric energy efficiency measures and low or zero-carbon technologies. Based on a conceptual framework for future-proofed design, the paper first presents results from the analysis of two 'best practice' housing developments in England; i.e., North West Cambridge in Cambridge and West Carclaze and Baal in St. Austell, Cornwall. Second, it examines the 'Energy and CO2 Emissions' part of the Code for Sustainable Homes to reveal which design criteria and assessment methods can be practically integrated into this established building certification scheme so that it can become more dynamic and future-oriented.Practical application: Future-proofed construction is promoted implicitly within the increasingly stringent building regulations; however, there is no comprehensive method to readily incorporate futures thinking into the energy design of buildings. This study has a three-fold objective of relevance to the building industry:Illuminating the two key categories of long-term impacts in buildings, which are often erroneously treated interchangeably:- The environmental impact of buildings due to their long lifecycles.- The environment's impacts on buildings due to risks and uncertainties affecting the energy consumption by at least 2050. This refers to social, technological, economic, environmental and regulatory (predictable or unknown) trends and drivers of change, such as climate uncertainty, home-working, technology readiness etc.Encouraging future-proofing from an early planning stage to reduce the likelihood of a prematurely obsolete building design.Enhancing established building energy assessment methods (certification, modelling or audit tools) by integrating a set of future-oriented criteria into their methodologies. © 2012 The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers.

Occlusive Components Analysis

We study unsupervised learning in a probabilistic generative model for occlusion. The model uses two types of latent variables: one indicates which objects are present in the image, and the other how they are ordered in depth. This depth order then determines how the positions and appearances of the objects present, specified in the model parameters, combine to form the image. We show that the object parameters can be learnt from an unlabelled set of images in which objects occlude one another. Exact maximum-likelihood learning is intractable. However, we show that tractable approximations to Expectation Maximization (EM) can be found if the training images each contain only a small number of objects on average. In numerical experiments it is shown that these approximations recover the correct set of object parameters. Experiments on a novel version of the bars test using colored bars, and experiments on more realistic data, show that the algorithm performs well in extracting the generating causes. Experiments based on the standard bars benchmark test for object learning show that the algorithm performs well in comparison to other recent component extraction approaches. The model and the learning algorithm thus connect research on occlusion with the research field of multiple-causes component extraction methods.

Analysis of interconnected oscillators by dissipativity theory

This paper employs dissipativity theory for the global analysis of limit cycles in particular dynamical systems of possibly high dimension. Oscillators are regarded as open systems that satisfy a particular dissipation inequality. It is shown that this characterization has implications for the global stability analysis of limit cycle oscillations: i) in isolated oscillators, ii) in interconnections of oscillators, and iii) for the global synchrony analysis in interconnections of identical oscillators. © 2007 IEEE.

The process of making the business case for technology: A sales and marketing perspective for technologists

Technological investment is a key driver of innovation and the evaluation of technology potential is becoming increasingly important in this context. There is a range of approaches and tools for developing an understanding of the value of technology. However the process of communicating this potential to possible customers is not well documented in terms of theory and practice and falls outside the skill set of many technologists. This paper seeks to integrate the concepts of marketing and consultative selling into making business cases for new technologies. It describes an exploratory study which results in an outline process activity model for technologists wishing to build an effective business case for securing investment internally or when selling a technology externally. Following a review of literature, we suggest that there is potential to learn from market research and consultative sales techniques, and propose a five step process. The work has been industrially validated and forms a novel foundation for further development. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Mobilisable strength design for flexible embedded retaining walls

The discusser read with interest the paper by Diakoumi & Powrie (2013) proposing an interesting method for the analysis of propped flexible retaining walls based on the mobilisation of active and passive pressures on the wall due to movement of wall segments. An assumed deformation mechanism within the soil is used to estimate the strain associated with rotation of a particular wall segment. This mechanism is then superposed for each wall segment, the resulting earth pressures are calculated; the equality between the wall bending moments implied by equilibrium and those required to achieve the appropriate bending of the wall is used to calculate the rotation of each segment. Although the method of analysis provides insight into the conservatism of conventional design calculations for different wall flexibilities, there are two aspects of the paper which provoke further discussion.

Room-temperature photoluminescence of ZnO/MgO multiple quantum wells deposited by reactive magnetron sputtering

Wurtzite ZnO/MgO superlattices were successfully grown on Si (001) substrates at 750 degrees C using radio-frequency reactive magnetron sputtering method. X-ray reflection and diffraction, electronic probe and photoluminescence analysis were used to characterize the multiple quantum wells (MQWs). The results showed the periodic layer thickness of the MQWs to be 1.85 to 22.3 nm. The blueshift induced by quantum confinement was observed. Least square fitting method was used to deduce the zero phonon energy of the exciton from the room-temperature photoluminescence. It was found that the MgO barrier layers has a much larger offset than ZnMgO. The fluctuation of periodic layer thickness of the MQWs was suggested to be a possible reason causing the photoluminescence spectrum broadening.

Whispering-gallery-likel modes in square resonators

The mode frequencies and field distributions of whispering-gallery (WG)-like modes of square resonators are obtained analytically, which agree very well with the numerical results calculated by the FDTD technique and Pade approximation method. In the analysis, a perfect electric wall for the transverse magnetic mode or perfect magnetic wall for the transverse electric mode is assumed at the diagonals of the square resonators, which not only provides the transverse mode confinement, but also requires the longitudinal mode number to be an even integer. The WG-like modes of square resonators are nondegenerate modes with high-quality factors, which make them suitable for fabricating single-mode low-threshold semiconductor microcavity lasers.