An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of national saving-investment relationship in order to determine the degree of capital mobility in 12 Latin American countries. The analytically relevant correlation is the short-term one, defined as that between changes in saving and investment. Of special interest is the speed at which variables return to the long run equilibrium relationship, which is interpreted as being negatively related to the degree of capital mobility. The long run correlation, in turn, captures the coefficient implied by the solvency constraint. We find that heterogeneity and cross-section dependence completely change the estimation of the long run coefficient. Besides we obtain a more precise short run coefficient estimate compared to the existent estimates in the literature. There is evidence of an intermediate degree of capital mobility, and the coefficients are extremely stable over time.

Social Movements and the Dynamics of Rural Territorial Development in Latin America

This special section brings together 4 of the 12 studies conducted within a research program analyzing the relationships among social mobilization, governance. and rural development in contemporary Latin America. The introduction Lives an overview of the contemporary significance of social movements For rural development dynamics in the region, and of the principal insights of the section papers and the broader research program of which they were a part. This significance varies Lis an effect of two distinct and uneven geographics: the geography of social movements themselves and the geography of the rural political economy. The effects that movements have oil the political economy of rural development also depend significantly oil internal characteristics of these movements. The paper identifies several such characteristics. The general pattern is that movements have had far more effect oil widening the political inclusiveness of rural development than they have oil improving its economic inclusiveness and dynamism. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal Characteristics of Polybia scutellaris Nests (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) Using Computational Fluid Dynamics: A Possible Adaptation to Tropical Climates

Polybia scutellaris constructs huge nests characterized by numerous spinal projections on the surface. We investigated the thermal characteristics of P scutellaris nests in order to determine whether their nest temperature is homeothermically maintained and whether the spines play a role in the thermoregulation of the nests. In order to examine these hypotheses, we measured the nest temperature in a active nest and in an abandoned nest. The temperature in the active nest was almost stable at 27 degrees C, whereas that of the abandoned nest varied with changes in the ambient temperature, suggesting that nest temperature was maintained by the thermogenesis of colony individuals. In order to predict the thermal properties of the spines, a numerical simulation was employed. To construct a 3D-model of a P scutellaris nest, the nest architecture was simplified into an outer envelope and the surface spines, for both of which the initial temperature was set at 27 degrees C. The physical properties of the simulated nest were regarded to be those of wood since the nest of this species is constructed from plant materials. When the model was exposed to cool air (12 degrees C), the temperature was lower in the models with more spines. On the other hand, when the nest was heated (42 degrees C), the temperature increase was smaller in models with more spines. It is suggested that the spines act as a heat radiator, not as an insulator, against the changes in ambient temperature.

Study of the antimicrobial peptide indolicidin and mutants in eukaryotic modelled membrane by molecular dynamics simulations

In this work the interaction of the antimicrobial peptide indolicidin (IND) and its mutants CP10A and CP11 with a eukaryotic membrane model was examined by molecular dynamics simulations. The aim was to analyse the behaviour of these antimicrobial peptides when they interact with a eukaryotic modelled membrane, thereby obtaining atomic detailed observations that are not experimentally available. In the simulations, the widely studied dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine hydrated bilayer was used as a eukaryotic membrane model. In agreement with experimental observations, the peptides IND, CP10A, and CP11 insert into the bilayer differently; the peptides that insert more deeply present the major hemolytic activities. The hydrophobic residues are responsible for the insertion, but some Trp residues of the peptides remain at the bilayer/water interface because they interact with the bilayer choline groups by cation-pi interactions that should be important for recognition of eukaryotic membrane by the three studied peptides.

Local delivery of EGF-liposome mediated bone modeling in orthodontic tooth movement by increasing RANKL expression

Aims: It has long been demonstrated that epidermal growth factor (EGF) has catabolic effects oil bone. Thus. we examined the role of EGF in regulating mechanically induced bone modeling in a rat model of orthodontic tooth movement. Main methods: The maxillary first molars of rats were moved mesially using an orthodontic appliance attached to the maxillary incisor teeth. Rats were randomly divided into 4 groups: (G1) administration of PBS (Phosphate buffer saline Solution (n = 24); (G2) administration of empty liposomes (it = 24): (Q) administration 20 rig of EGF Solution (n = 24): and (G4) 20 ng of EGF-liposomes Solution (it = 24). Each Solution was injected in the mucosa of the left first molar adjacent to the appliance. At days 5, 10, 14 and 2 1 after drug administration. 6 animals of each group were sacrificed. Histomorphometric analysis was used to quantify osteoclasts (Tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP) + cells) and tooth movement. Using immunohistochemistry assay we evaluated the RANKL (receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression. Key findings: The EGF-liposome administration showed an increased tooth movement and osteoclast numbers compared to controls (p<0.05). This was correlated with intense RANKL expression. Both osteoblasts and osteoclasts expressed EGFR. Significance: Local delivery of EGF-liposome stimulates, osteoclastogenesis and tooth movement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling of columnar-to-equiaxed transition in solidified Al-Si alloys

A Cellular-Automaton Finite-Volume-Method (CAFVM) algorithm has been developed, coupling with macroscopic model for heat transfer calculation and microscopic models for nucleation and growth. The solution equations have been solved to determine the time-dependent constitutional undercooling and interface retardation during solidification. The constitutional undercooling is then coupled into the CAFVM algorithm to investigate both the effects of thermal and constitutional undercooling on columnar growth and crystal selection in the columnar zone, and formation of equiaxed crystals in the bulk liquid. The model cannot only simulate microstructures of alloys but also investigates nucleation mechanisms and growth kinetics of alloys solidified with various solute concentrations and solidification morphologies.

Characterization of temperature dependent and substrate-binding cleft movements in Bacillus circulans family 11 xylanase: A molecular dynamics investigation

Background: Xylanases (EC 3.2.1.8) hydrolyze xylan, one of the most abundant plant polysaccharides found in nature, and have many potential applications in biotechnology. Methods: Molecular dynamics simulations were used to investigate the effects of temperature between 298 to 338 K and xylobiose binding on residues located in the substrate-binding cleft of the family 11 xylanase from Bacillus circulans (BcX). Results: In the absence of xylobiose the BcX exhibits temperature dependent movement of the thumb region which adopts an open conformation exposing the active site at the optimum catalytic temperature (328 K). In the presence of substrate, the thumb region restricts access to the active site at all temperatures, and this conformation is maintained by substrate/protein hydrogen bonds involving active site residues, including hydrogen bonds between Tyr69 and the 2` hydroxyl group of the substrate. Substrate access to the active site is regulated by temperature dependent motions that are restricted to the thumb region, and the BcX/substrate complex is stabilized by extensive intermolecular hydrogen bonding with residues in the active site. General significance: These results call for a revision of both the ""hinge-bending"" model for the activity of group 11 xylanases, and the role of Tyr69 in the catalytic mechanism. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional approximation for tidal dynamics in coastal aquifers: Capillarity correction

Most previous investigations on tide-induced watertable fluctuations in coastal aquifers have been based on one-dimensional models that describe the processes in the cross-shore direction alone, assuming negligible along-shore variability. A recent study proposed a two-dimensional approximation for tide-induced watertable fluctuations that took into account coastline variations. Here, we further develop this approximation in two ways, by extending the approximation to second order and by taking into account capillary effects. Our results demonstrate that both effects can markedly influence watertable fluctuations. In particular, with the first-order approximation, the local damping rate of the tidal signal could be subject to sizable errors.

Seasonal dynamics of a drosophilid (Diptera) assemblage and its potencial as bioindicator in open environments

Drosophila Fallen, 1823 (Diptera, Drosophilidae) is for long a well-established model organism for genetics and evolutionary research. The ecology of these flies, however, has only recently been better studied. Recent papers show that Drosophila assemblies can be used as bioindicators of forested environment degradation. In this work the bioindicator potential of drosophilids was evaluated in a naturally opened environment, a coastal strand-forest (restinga). Data from nine consecutive seasonal collections revealed strong temporal fluctuation pattern of the majority of Drosophila species groups. Drosophila willistoni group was more abundant at autumns, whereas D. cardini and D. tripunctata groups were, respectively, expressive at winters and springs, and D. repleta group at both seasons. The exotic species D. simulans Sturtevant, 1919 (from D. melanogaster group) and Zaprionus indianus Gupta, 1970 were most abundant at summers. Overall, the assemblage structure did not show the same characteristics of forested or urban environments, but was similar to the forests at winters and to cities at summers. This raises the question that this locality may already been under urbanization impact. Also, this can be interpreted as an easily invaded site for exotic species, what might lead to biotic homogenization and therefore can put in check the usage of drosophilid assemblages as bioindicators at open environments.

Religions and cultures: Religious dynamics in Latin America

The author seeks to analyse the relationships between religion and culture in Latin America, especially in Brazil, highlighting the fact that the different religions enjoy diverse relationships with culture in a single location. He also addresses the fact that religions interpret culture in different ways and these interpretations help define their conversion strategies and how best to confront opposing religions. For the sake of discussion, the author considers, hypothetically, a not-so-distant future in which Latin America becomes predominantly evangelical, and asks what will happen to Latin America`s supposed Catholic culture if the evangelical religions do indeed take over.

Race modeling: An effective cognitive strategy for the 100 m sprinter?

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a specific cognitive race plan on 100 m sprint performance, Twelve elite sprinters (11 male and 1 female) performed 100 m time trials under normal (control) conditions and then under experimental conditions (use of race cues). In the experimental condition, participants were asked to think about specific thought content in each of three segments of the 100 m. A multiple baseline design was employed. A mean improvement of 0.26 s was found. Eleven of the 12 participants showed improvement using the specific cognitive race plan (p < .005). Participants also produced more consistent sprint performances when using the cues (p < .01). Subjective evaluations made by the participants unanimously supported the use of the race plan for optimizing sprint performance. Environmental conditions, effort, and practice effects were considered as possible influences on the results.