A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia

Lacustrine sediments from southeastern Arabia reveal variations in lake level corresponding to changes in the strength and duration of Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) summer rainfall and winter cyclonic rainfall. The late glacial/Holocene transition of the region was characterised by the development of mega-linear dunes. These dunes became stabilised and vegetated during the early Holocene and interdunal lakes formed in response to the incursion of the IOM at approximately 8500 cal yr BP with the development of C3 dominated savanna grasslands. The IOM weakened ca. 6000 cal yr BP with the onset of regional aridity, aeolian sedimentation and dune reactivation and accretion. Despite this reduction in precipitation, the take was maintained by winter dominated rainfall. There was a shift to drier adapted C4 grasslands across the dune field. Lake sediment geochemical analyses record precipitation minima at 8200, 5000 and 4200 cal yr BP that coincide with Bond events in the North Atlantic. A number of these events correspond with changes in cultural periods, suggesting that climate was a key mechanism affecting human occupation and exploitation of this region. (c) 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg

The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) was applied to the River Lugg to determine the key factors controlling delivery of phosphorus to the main channel and to quantify the relative contribution of diffuse and point sources to the in-stream phosphorus (P) load under varying hydrological conditions. The model is able to simulate the seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in the in-stream total-phosphorus concentrations. However, difficulties in simulating diffuse inputs arise due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters. The River Lugg is split into upper and lower reaches. The upper reaches are dominated by grassland and woodland, so the patterns in the stream-water total-phosphorus concentrations are typical of diffuse source inputs; application of the model leads to estimates of the relative contribution to the in-stream P load from diffuse and point sources as 9:1. In the lower reaches, which are more intensively cultivated and urbanised, the stream-water total-phosphorus concentration dynamics are influenced more by point-sources; the simulated relative diffuse/point contribution to the in-stream P load is 1: 1. The model set-up and simulations are used to identify the key source-areas of P in the catchment, the P contribution of the Lugg to the River Wye during years with contrasting precipitation inputs, and the uptake and release of P from within-reach sediment. In addition, model scenarios are run to identify the impacts of likely P reductions at sewage treatment works on the in-stream soluble-reactive P concentrations and the suitability of this as a management option is assessed for reducing eutrophication.

The diurnal cycle of convection and atmospheric tides in an aquaplanet

The diurnal cycle of tropical convection and its relationship to the atmospheric tides is investigated using an aquaplanet GCM. The diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics of precipitation are both found to contribute significantly to the total diurnal variability of precipitation in the model, which is broadly consistent with observations of the diurnal cycle of convection over the open ocean. The semidiurnal tide is found to be the dominant forcing for the semidiurnal harmonic of precipitation. In contrast the diurnal tide plays only a small role in forcing the diurnal harmonic of precipitation, which is dominated by the variations in shortwave and longwave heating. In both the diurnal and semidiurnal harmonics, the feedback onto the convection by the humidity tendencies due to the convection is found to be important in determining the phase of the harmonics. Further experiments show that the diurnal cycle of precipitation is sensitive to the choice of closure in the convection scheme. While the surface pressure signal of the simulated atmospheric tides in the model agree well with both theory and observations in their magnitude and phase, sensitivity experiments suggest that the role of the stratospheric ozone in forcing the semidiurnal tide is much reduced compared to theoretical predictions. Furthermore, the influence of the cloud radiative effects seems small. It is suggested that the radiative heating profile in the troposphere, associated primarily with the water vapor distribution, is more important than previously thought for driving the semidiurnal tide. However, this result may be sensitive to the vertical resolution and extent of the model.

Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: A multimodel-ensemble study

Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere-ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales. albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.

Quasi-biennial oscillation and tracer distributions in a coupled chemistry-climate model

[ 1] We have used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM), which generates its own wind and temperature quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), to study the effect of coupling on the QBO and to examine the QBO signals in stratospheric trace gases, particularly ozone. Radiative coupling of the interactive chemistry to the underlying general circulation model tends to prolong the QBO period and to increase the QBO amplitude in the equatorial zonal wind in the lower and middle stratosphere. The model ozone QBO agrees well with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer satellite observations in terms of vertical and latitudinal structure. The model captures the ozone QBO phase change near 28 km over the equator and the column phase change near +/- 15 degrees latitude. Diagnosis of the model chemical terms shows that variations in NOx are the main chemical driver of the O-3 QBO around 35 km, i.e., above the O-3 phase change.

Overview of observations from the RADAGAST experiment in Niamey, Niger: 2. Radiative fluxes and divergences

Broadband shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes observed both at the surface and from space during the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence using ARM Mobile Facility, GERB data and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) experiment in Niamey, Niger, in 2006 are presented. The surface fluxes were measured by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) at Niamey airport, while the fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on the Meteosat-8 satellite. The data are analyzed as daily averages, in order to minimize sampling differences between the surface and top of atmosphere instruments, while retaining the synoptic and seasonal changes that are the main focus of this study. A cloud mask is used to identify days with cloud versus those with predominantly clear skies. The influence of temperature, water vapor, aerosols, and clouds is investigated. Aerosols are ubiquitous throughout the year and have a significant impact on both the shortwave and longwave fluxes. The large and systematic seasonal changes in temperature and column integrated water vapor (CWV) through the dry and wet seasons are found to exert strong influences on the longwave fluxes. These influences are often in opposition to each other, because the highest temperatures occur at the end of the dry season when the CWV is lowest, while in the wet season the lowest temperatures are associated with the highest values of CWV. Apart from aerosols, the shortwave fluxes are also affected by clouds and by the seasonal changes in CWV. The fluxes are combined to provide estimates of the divergence of radiation across the atmosphere throughout 2006. The longwave divergence shows a relatively small variation through the year, because of a partial compensation between the seasonal variations in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and surface net longwave radiation. A simple model of the greenhouse effect is used to interpret this result in terms of the dependence of the normalized greenhouse effect at the TOA and of the effective emissivity of the atmosphere at the surface on the CWV. It is shown that, as the CWV increases, the atmosphere loses longwave energy to the surface with about the same increasing efficiency with which it traps the OLR. When combined with the changes in temperature, this maintains the atmospheric longwave divergence within the narrow range that is observed. The shortwave divergence is mainly determined by the CWV and aerosol loadings and the effect of clouds is much smaller than on the component fluxes.

Gene conversion and evolution of Xq28 duplicons involved in recurring inversions causing severe hemophilia A

Inversions breaking the 1041 bp int1h-1 or the 9.5-kb int22h-1 sequence of the F8 gene cause hemophilia A in 1/30,000 males. These inversions are due to homologous recombination between the above sequences and their inverted copies on the same DNA molecule, respectively, int1h-2 and int22h-2 or int22h-3. We find that (1) int1h and int22h duplicated more than 25 million years ago; (2) the identity of the copies (>99%) of these sequences in humans and other primates is due to gene conversion; (3) gene conversion is most frequent in the internal regions of int22h; (4) breakpoints of int22h-related inversions also tend to involve the internal regions of int22h; (5) sequence variations in a sample of human X chromosomes defined eight haplotypes of int22h-1 and 27 of int22h-2 plus int22h-3; (6) the latter two sequences, which lie, respectively, 500 and 600 kb telomeric to int22h-1 are five-fold more identical when in cis than when in trans, thus suggesting that gene conversion may be predominantly intrachromosomal; (7) int1h, int22h, and flanking sequences evolved at a rate of about 0.1% substitutions per million years during the divergence between humans and other primates, except for int1h during the human-chimpanzee divergence, when its rate of evolution was significantly lower. This is reminiscent of the slower evolution of palindrome arms in the male specific regions of the Y chromosome and we propose, as an explanation, that intrachromosomal gene conversion and cosegregation of the duplicated regions favors retention of the ancestral sequence and thus reduces the evolution rate.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Decadal-scale rainfall variability in Ethiopia recorded in an annually laminated, Holocene-age, stalagmite

An annually laminated, uranium-series dated, Holocene stalagmite from southeast Ethiopia has been analysed for growth rate and δ13C and δ18O variations at annual to biennial resolution, in order to provide the first long duration proxy record of decadal-scale rainfall variability in this climatically sensitive region. Our study site (10°N) is climatically influenced by both summer (June—August) and spring (March—May) rainfall caused by the annual movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and modulated by large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and in ocean temperatures. Here we show that stalagmite growth, episodic throughout the last 7800 years, demonstrates decadal-scale (8—25 yr) variability in both growth rate and δ 18O. A hydrological model was employed and indicates that this decadal variability is due to variations in the relative amounts of rainfall in the two rain seasons. Our record, unique in its combination of length (a total of ~1000 years), annual chronology and high resolution δ18O, shows for the first time that such decadal-scale variability in rainfall in this region has occurred through the Holocene, which implies persistent decadal-scale variability for the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic driving factors.

Indirect population dynamic benefits of altered life-history trade-offs in response to egg harvesting

Variations in demographic rates due to differential resource allocation between individuals are important considerations in the development of accurate population dynamic models. Systematic harvesting can alter age structure and/or reduce population density, conferring indirect positive benefits on the source population as a result of a consequent redistribution of resources between the remaining individuals. Independently of effects mediated through changes in density and competition, demographic rates can also be influenced by within-individual competition for resources. Harvesting dependent life stages can reduce an individual's current reproductive costs, allowing increased investment in its future fecundity and survival. Although such changes in demographic rates are well known, there has been little exploration of the potential impact on population dynamics. We use empirical data collected from a successfully reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus to explore the population consequences of manipulating reproductive effort through harvesting. Consequent increases in an individual's future fecundity and survival allow source populations to withstand longer and more intensive harvesting regimes without being exposed to an increase in extinction risk, increasing maximum sustainable yields. These effects may also buffer populations against the impacts of stochastic events, but directional shifts in environmental conditions that increase reproductive costs may have detrimental population-level effects.

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.

In situ degradability of dry matter and neutral-detergent fibre of thorn scrubland forage consumed by goats in the semi-arid region of north Mexico

Three goats provided with oesophageal and ruminal cannulae were used to determine variations in dry matter (DM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) degradability of the forage consumed when grazing thorn scrubland in the semi-arid region of north Mexico, during two consecutive dry and wet periods. Ingesta samples were incubated intraruminally, the data were fitted to the exponential equation P = a + b (1-e(-ct)) and statistically analysed using a randomized-block design. Organic matter and crude protein (CP) contents were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Values of NDF were similar in dry and wet season of both years whereas higher numerical values of acid-detergent fibre (ADF), lignin and cellulose were registered in the dry seasons. DM and NDF degradabilities after 24 and 48 h of ruminal incubation were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Higher values (P < 0.05) in DM and NDF bag losses at zero time (A fraction) were registered in the two wet seasons. The insoluble but fermentable DM and NDF (B fractions) were higher (P < 0.05) in the 1999 wet season and variable in the rest of the studied period. Numerically higher values of DM and NDF c fraction were found in wet periods, whereas DM and NDF potential degradabilities were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet season in 1999 and similar across seasons in 2000. Lowest (P < 0.05) contents of CP in grazed forage, DM and NDF degradabilities after 48 h of ruminal incubation, and A, and B, and c fractions were observed in the dry seasons. Thus, these results may be related to both the lower feeding value of forage consumed by the animals and lower performance of livestock during this period. Then, the DM and NDF degradability after 48 h, together with the insoluble but fermentable matter and the c fraction permit the nutritive value of the forage consumed by grazing goats to be accurately described.

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion to tick-borne pathogens in smallholder dairy youngstock in Tanzania

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion of youngstock to the tick-borne pathogens Theileria parva, T mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and B. bovis was conducted over two years on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga region, Tanzania. There was evidence of maternal antibodies to all tick-borne pathogens in animals less than 18 weeks of age. Seroprevalence increased as expected with age in animals older than this but seroprevalence profiles underestimated the force of infection due to waning antibody levels between samplings. By the end of the 2-year study, less than 50% of study animals had seroconverted to each of the tick-borne pathogens investigated, consistent with the low levels of tick attachment observed on the study animals. Some associations between seroconversion to tick-borne pathogens, and counts of their known tick vectors on the animals, were identified as expected. However, some were not, suggesting that counts of some tick species may act as an index of rates of attachment of other vector species. Variation in acaricide treatment frequencies was not associated with variations in tick-borne pathogen seroprevalence suggesting that acaricides may be used more frequently than necessary on many farms. Most animals were zero-grazed, a management system associated with a significantly lower likelihood that animals seroconverted to any tick-borne pathogen exceptA. marginale. Seroprevalence varied locally with farm location (particularly for Babesia spp.) but was not well predicted by indices of ecological conditions. Our findings suggest that attempts to achieve a state of 'endemic stability' for tick-bome pathogens may be unreasonable on the smallholder dairy farms studied but reductions in the frequency of use of acaricides may be possible following prospective studies of effects on mortality and morbidity due to tick-bome pathogens. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical composition and in vitro ruminal fermentation of common tree forages in the semi-arid rangelands of Swaziland

Browse plants play an important role in providing feed for livestock in semi-arid rangelands of Africa. Chemical composition and in vitro ruminal fermentation of leaves collected from Acacia burkei, Acacia tortilis, Acacia nilotica, Dichrostachys cinerea and Ehretia obtusifolia in communal grazing lands in the lowveld of Swaziland is presented. Leaves were collected from trees located on two soil types (i.e., lithosol and vertisol) in the communal land but it had no effect on the chemical composition of tree leaves. The NDFom and ADFom content were highest in D. cinerea and A. burkei and lowest in E. obtusifolia and A. nilotica. Crude protein (CP) contents ranged between 108 g/kg and 122 g/kg DM. D. cinerea had the highest Ca and Mg content, while A. tortilis had the lowest. There were marked variations in K level amongst browse species, with A. tortilis (9.1 g/kg DM) having the highest value. The P, Zn and Fe did not differ between browse species. Soil type and tree species interaction impacted in vitro fermentation parameters. Extent of fermentation, as measured by 48 h cumulative gas production, and organic matter degradability was highest in E. obtusifolia leaves and lowest in D. cinerea leaves within soil type. Fermentation efficiency, as measured by partitioning factors, was highest in A. nilotica leaves. Leaves of E. obtusifolia could be a valuable supplementary feedstuff for ruminant livestock due to its in vitro fermentation characteristics as well as low fibre and moderate CP levels. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.