Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.

A chitotetrose specific lectin from Luffa acutangula :Physico-chemical properties and the assignment of orientation of sugars in the lectin binding site

A chitooligosaccharide specific lectin (Luffa acutangula agglutinin) has been purified from the exudate of ridge gourd fruits by affinity chromatography on soybean agglutininglycopeptides coupled to Sepharose-6B. The affinity purified lectin was found homogeneous by polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, in sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gels, by gel filtration on Sephadex G-100 and by sedimentation velocity experiments. The relative molecular weight of this lectin is determined to be 48,000 ± 1,000 by gel chromatography and sedimentation equilibrium experiments. The sedimentation coefficient (S20, w) was obtained to be 4·06 S. The Stokes’ radius of the protein was found to be 2·9 nm by gel filtration. In sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis the lectin gave a molecular weight of 24,000 in the presence as well as absence of 2-mercaptoethanol. The subunits in this dimeric lectin are therefore held by non-covalent interactions alone. The lectin is not a glycoprotein and circular dichroism spectral studies indicate that this lectin has 31% α-helix and no ß-sheet. The lectin is found to bind specifically to chitooligosaccharides and the affinity of the lectin increases with increasing oligosaccharide chain length as monitored by near ultra-violetcircular dichroism and intrinsic fluorescence titration. The values of ΔG, ΔΗ and ΔS for the binding process showed a pronounced dependence on the size of the oligosaccharide. The values for both ΔΗ and ΔS show a significant increase with increase in the oligosaccharide chain length showing that the binding of higher oligomers is progressively more favoured thermodynamically than chitobiose itself. The thermodynamic data is consistent with an extended binding site in the lectin which accommodates a tetrasaccharide. Based on the thermodynamic data, blue shifts and fluorescence enhancement, spatial orientation of chitooligosaccharides in the combining site of the lectin is assigned.

Structure of shock waves at re-entry speeds

The unified structure of steady, one-dimensional shock waves in argon, in the absence of an external electric or magnetic field, is investigated. The analysis is based on a two-temperature, three-fluid continuum approach, using the Navier—Stokes equations as a model and including non-equilibrium collisional as well as radiative ionization phenomena. Quasi charge neutrality and zero velocity slip are assumed. The integral nature of the radiative terms is reduced to analytical forms through suitable spectral and directional approximations. The analysis is based on the method of matched asymptotic expansions. With respect to a suitably chosen small parameter, which is the ratio of atom-atom elastic collisional mean free-path to photon mean free-path, the following shock morphology emerges: within the radiation and electron thermal conduction dominated outer layer occurs an optically transparent discontinuity which consists of a chemically frozen heavy particle (atoms and ions) shock and a collisional ionization relaxation layer. Solutions are obtained for the first order with respect to the small parameter of the problem for two cases: (i) including electron thermal conduction and (ii) neglecting it in the analysis of the outer layer. It has been found that the influence of electron thermal conduction on the shock structure is substantial. Results for various free-stream conditions are presented in the form of tables and figures.

Liikennepolttoaineeksi tarkoitettu ohraetanoli, Suomen ohramarkkinat ja ilmastonmuutos

The aim of the thesis was to analyze the use of barley as an input for bioethanol production and the impacts the use has on the Finnish barley markets. Two main research questions were formulated. First, privately and socially optimal bioethanol production levels were examined. In the social optimum, the climate benefits of bioethanol production were considered. It was calculated that the production and use of bioethanol created smaller CO2 -emissions when compared with the production and use of gasoline. Second, the impacts of bioethanol production on farmland allocation and agricultural production were analyzed. In more detail, the second aim was to analyze the farmland allocation between wheat and barley cultivation and green set aside in the private and social optimum. An analytical model was produced to analyze the barley markets in Finland. To provide an empirical counterpart to this model, existing research data on bioethanol production and barley cultivation was used. The aim of the model was to analyze the supply and the demand as well as market equilibrium of barley. Furthermore, the model provided a framework for analyzing the differences between the private optimum and social optimum of bioethanol production in Finland. The demand for barley consists of animal feed demand and bioethanol demand. On the supply side, a heterogeneous model of farmland quality was used. With this framework, it is possible to analyze farmland allocation between barley and wheat cultivation and green set aside and how the climate benefits of bioethanol production affects the allocation. Moreover, the relative changes in barley price between the private and social optimum were analyzed. Based on the empirical analysis, the private optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 58 691 metric tons. However, the social optimum for barley based bioethanol production is 72 736 metric tons. The portion of farmland that is allocated to barley cultivation is increased if the climate benefits of bioethanol production are considered. In the private optimum, 1/19 of the total farmland is allocated to barley cultivation whereas in social optimum the share increases to 7/19. Furthermore, the increase in barley price between private and social optimum is rather modest. Total increase in price is only about 1,8 percent.

Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

A semi-empirical theory of molten salts

A semi-empirical model is presented for describing the interionic interactions in molten salts using the experimentally available structure data. An extension of Bertaut's method of non-overlapping charges is used to estimate the electrostatic interaction energy in ionic melts. It is shown, in agreement with earlier computer simulation studies, that this energy increases when an ionic salt melts. The repulsion between ions is described using a compressible ion theory which uses structure-independent parameters. The van der Waals interactions and the thermal free energy are also included in the total energy, which is minimised with respect to isostructural volume variations to calculate the equilibrium density. Detailed results are presented for three molten systems, NaCl, CaCl2 and ZnCl2, and are shown to be in satisfactory agreement with experiments. With reliable structural data now being reported for several other molten salts, the present study gains relevance.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Some empirical evidence on offender time discount rates

The conventional wisdom is that offenders have very high discount rates not only with respect to income and fines but also with respect to time incarcerated. These rates are difficult to measure objectively and the usual approach is to ask subjects hypothetical questions and infer time preference from their answers. In this article, we propose estimating rates at which offenders discount time incarcerated by specifying their equilibrium plea, defined as the discount rate, which equates the time and expected time spent in jail following a guilty plea and a trial. Offenders are assumed to exhibit positive time preference and discount time spent in jail at a constant rate. Our choice of sample is interesting because the offenders are not on bail, punishment is not delayed and the offences are planned therefore conforming to Becker’s model of the decision to commit a crime. Contrary to the discussion in the literature, we do not find evidence of consistently high time discount rates, and therefore cannot unequivocally infer that the prison experience always results in low levels of specific deterrence.

Growth of ionization currents in nitrogen

Townsend's primary and secondary ionization coefficients α/p and γ were determined in nitrogen over a wide range of E/p (100-1000 V cm−1 Torr−1) and p (0·4 to 12 Torr at 0 °C) using the pressure variation technique. This technique, along with the Gosseries method of evaluation of ionization coefficients, seems to be more suitable at higher values of E/p, since the errors in these coefficients could be minimized by a suitable selection of p and d, thus eliminating the non-equilibrium ionization condition.

Growth of ionization currents in nitrogen

Townsend's primary and secondary ionization coefficients α/p and γ were determined in nitrogen over a wide range of E/p (100-1000 V cm−1 Torr−1) and p (0·4 to 12 Torr at 0 °C) using the pressure variation technique. This technique, along with the Gosseries method of evaluation of ionization coefficients, seems to be more suitable at higher values of E/p, since the errors in these coefficients could be minimized by a suitable selection of p and d, thus eliminating the non-equilibrium ionization condition.

Spatial variation of climate and the impact of disturbances on local climate and forest recovery in northern Finland

The structure and function of northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by climate change and variability and by human-induced disturbances. The projected global change is likely to have a pronounced effect on the distribution and productivity of different species, generating large changes in the equilibrium at the tree-line. In turn, movement of the tree-line and the redistribution of species produce feedback to both the local and the regional climate. This research was initiated with the objective of examining the influence of natural conditions on the small-scale spatial variation of climate in Finnish Lapland, and to study the interaction and feedback mechanisms in the climate-disturbances-vegetation system near the climatological border of boreal forest. The high (1 km) resolution spatial variation of climate parameters over northern Finland was determined by applying the Kriging interpolation method that takes into account the effect of external forcing variables, i.e., geographical coordinates, elevation, sea and lake coverage. Of all the natural factors shaping the climate, the geographical position, local topography and altitude proved to be the determining ones. Spatial analyses of temperature- and precipitation-derived parameters based on a 30-year dataset (1971-2000) provide a detailed description of the local climate. Maps of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, the frost-free period and the growing season indicate that the most favourable thermal conditions exist in the south-western part of Lapland, around large water bodies and in the Kemijoki basin, while the coldest regions are in highland and fell Lapland. The distribution of precipitation is predominantly longitudinally dependent but with the definite influence of local features. The impact of human-induced disturbances, i.e., forest fires, on local climate and its implication for forest recovery near the northern timberline was evaluated in the Tuntsa area of eastern Lapland, damaged by a widespread forest fire in 1960 and suffering repeatedly-failed vegetation recovery since that. Direct measurements of the local climate and simulated heat and water fluxes indicated the development of a more severe climate and physical conditions on the fire-disturbed site. Removal of the original, predominantly Norway spruce and downy birch vegetation and its substitution by tundra vegetation has generated increased wind velocity and reduced snow accumulation, associated with a large variation in soil temperature and moisture and deep soil frost. The changed structural parameters of the canopy have determined changes in energy fluxes by reducing the latter over the tundra vegetation. The altered surface and soil conditions, as well as the evolved severe local climate, have negatively affected seedling growth and survival, leading to more unfavourable conditions for the reproduction of boreal vegetation and thereby causing deviations in the regional position of the timberline. However it should be noted that other factors, such as an inadequate seed source or seedbed, the poor quality of the soil and the intensive logging of damaged trees could also exacerbate the poor tree regeneration. In spite of the failed forest recovery at Tunsta, the position and composition of the timberline and tree-line in Finnish Lapland may also benefit from present and future changes in climate. The already-observed and the projected increase in temperature, the prolonged growing season, as well as changes in the precipitation regime foster tree growth and new regeneration, resulting in an advance of the timberline and tree-line northward and upward. This shift in the distribution of vegetation might be decelerated or even halted by local topoclimatic conditions and by the expected increase in the frequency of disturbances.

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses in northern Europe

Postglacial climate changes and vegetation responses were studied using a combination of biological and physical indicators preserved in lake sediments. Low-frequency trends, high-frequency events and rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance were probed using pollen-based quantitative temperature reconstructions and oxygen-isotopes from authigenic carbonate and aquatic cellulose, respectively. Pollen and plant macrofossils were employed to shed light on the presence and response rates of plant populations in response to climate changes, particularly focusing on common boreal and temperate tree species. Additional geochemical and isotopic tracers facilitated the interpretation of pollen- and oxygen-isotope data. The results show that the common boreal trees were present in the Baltic region (~55°N) during the Lateglacial, which contrasts with the traditional view of species refuge locations in the south-European peninsulas during the glacial/interglacial cycles. The findings of this work are in agreement with recent paleoecological and genetic evidence suggesting that scattered populations of tree species persisted at higher latitudes, and that these taxa were likely limited to boreal trees. Moreover, the results demonstrate that stepwise changes in plant communities took place in concert with major climate fluctuations of the glacial/interglacial transition. Postglacial climate trends in northern Europe were characterized by rise, maxima and fall in temperatures and related changes in moisture balance. Following the deglaciation of the Northern Hemisphere and the early Holocene reorganization of the ice-ocean-atmosphere system, the long-term temperature trends followed gradually decreasing summer insolation. The early Holocene (~11,700-8000 cal yr BP) was overall cool, moist and oceanic, although the earliest Holocene effective humidity may have been low particularly in the eastern part of northern Europe. The gradual warming trend was interrupted by a cold event ~8200 cal yr BP. The maximum temperatures, ~1.5-3.0°C above modern values, were attained ~8000-4000 cal yr BP. This mid-Holocene peak warmth was coupled with low lake levels, low effective humidity and summertime drought. The late Holocene (~4000 cal yr BP-present) was characterized by gradually decreasing temperatures, higher lake levels and higher effective humidity. Moreover, the gradual trends of the late Holocene were probably superimposed by higher-frequency variability. The spatial variability of the Holocene temperature and moisture balance patterns were tentatively attributed to the differing heat capacities of continents and oceans, changes in atmospheric circulation modes and position of sites and subregions with respect to large water bodies and topographic barriers. The combination of physical and biological proxy archives is a pivotal aspect of this work, because non-climatic factors, such as postglacial migration, disturbances and competitive interactions, can influence reshuffling of vegetation and hence, pollen-based climate reconstructions. The oxygen-isotope records and other physical proxies presented in this work manifest that postglacial climate changes were the main driver of the establishment and expansion of temperate and boreal tree populations, and hence, large-scale and long-term vegetation patterns were in dynamic equilibrium with climate. A notable exception to this pattern may be the postglacial invasion of Norway spruce and the related suppression of mid-Holocene temperate forest. This salient step in north-European vegetation history, the development of the modern boreal ecosystem, cannot be unambiguously explained by current evidence of postglacial climate changes. The results of this work highlight that plant populations, including long-lived trees, may be able to respond strikingly rapidly to changes in climate. Moreover, interannual and seasonal variation and extreme events can exert an important influence on vegetation reshuffling. Importantly, the studies imply that the presence of diffuse refuge populations or local stands among the prevailing vegetation may have provided the means for extraordinarily rapid vegetation responses. Hence, if scattered populations are not provided and tree populations are to migrate long distances, their capacity to keep up with predicted rates of future climate change may be lower than previously thought.

Re-examination of one-point methods of liquid limit determination

This Paper deals with the analysis of liquid limit of soils, an inferential parameter of universal acceptance. It has been undertaken primarily to re-examine one-point methods of determination of liquid limit water contents. It has been shown by basic characteristics of soils and associated physico-chemical factors that critical shear strengths at liquid limit water contents arise out of force field equilibrium and are independent of soil type. This leads to the formation of a scientific base for liquid limit determination by one-point methods, which hitherto was formulated purely on statistical analysis of data. Available methods (Norman, 1959; Karlsson, 1961; Clayton & Jukes, 1978) of one-point liquid limit determination have been critically re-examined. A simple one-point cone penetrometer method of computing liquid limit has been suggested and compared with other methods. Experimental data of Sherwood & Ryley (1970) have been employed for comparison of different cone penetration methods. Results indicate that, apart from mere statistical considerations, one-point methods have a strong scientific base on the uniqueness of modified flow line irrespective of soil type. Normalized flow line is obtained by normalization of water contents by liquid limit values thereby nullifying the effects of surface areas and associated physico-chemical factors that are otherwise reflected in different responses at macrolevel.Cet article traite de l'analyse de la limite de liquidité des sols, paramètre déductif universellement accepté. Cette analyse a été entreprise en premier lieu pour ré-examiner les méthodes à un point destinées à la détermination de la teneur en eau à la limite de liquidité. Il a été démontré par les caractéristiques fondamentales de sols et par des facteurs physico-chimiques associés que les résistances critiques à la rupture au cisaillement pour des teneurs en eau à la limite de liquidité résultent de l'équilibre des champs de forces et sont indépendantes du type de sol concerné. On peut donc constituer une base scientifique pour la détermination de la limite de liquidité par des méthodes à un point lesquelles, jusqu'alors, n'avaient été formulées que sur la base d'une analyse statistique des données. Les méthodes dont on dispose (Norman, 1959; Karlsson, 1961; Clayton & Jukes, 1978) pour la détermination de la limite de liquidité à un point font l'objet d'un ré-examen critique. Une simple méthode d'analyse à un point à l'aide d'un pénétromètre à cône pour le calcul de la limite de liquidité a été suggérée et comparée à d'autres méthodes. Les données expérimentales de Sherwood & Ryley (1970) ont été utilisées en vue de comparer différentes méthodes de pénétration par cône. En plus de considérations d'ordre purement statistque, les résultats montrent que les méthodes de détermination à un point constituent une base scientifique solide en raison du caractère unique de la ligne de courant modifiée, quel que soit le type de sol La ligne de courant normalisée est obtenue par la normalisation de la teneur en eau en faisant appel à des valeurs de limite de liquidité pour, de cette manière, annuler les effets des surfaces et des facteurs physico-chimiques associés qui sans cela se manifesteraient dans les différentes réponses au niveau macro.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

The study of genetic diversity and population structure of the Korean fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, using newly developed microsatellite markers

The fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, is the family of Penaeidae and one of the most economically important marine culture species in Korea. However, its genetic characteristics have never been studied. In this study, a total of 240 wild F. chinensis individuals were collected from four locations as follows: Narodo (NRD, n = 60), Beopseongpo (BSP, n = 60), Chaesukpo (CSP, n = 60), and Cheonsuman (CSM, n = 60). Genetic variability and the relationships among four wild F. chinensis populations were analyzed using 13 newly developed microsatellite loci. Relatively high levels of genetic variability (mean allelic richness = 16.87; mean heterozygosity = 0.845) were found among localities. Among the 52 population loci, 13 showed significant deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Neighbor-joining, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses revealed the presence of three subpopulations (NRD, CSM, BSP and CSP), which was consistent with clustering based on genetic distance. The mean observed heterozygosity values of the NRD, CSM, BSP, and CSP populations were 0.724, 0.821, 0.814, and 0.785 over all loci, respectively. These genetic variability and differentiation results of the four wild populations can be applied for future genetic improvement using selective breeding and to design suitable management guidelines for Korean F. chinensis culture.