A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Comparison of BR and QR Eigenvalue Algorithms for Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis

The BR algorithm is a novel and efficient method to find all eigenvalues of upper Hessenberg matrices and has never been applied to eigenanalysis for power system small signal stability. This paper analyzes differences between the BR and the QR algorithms with performance comparison in terms of CPU time based on stopping criteria and storage requirement. The BR algorithm utilizes accelerating strategies to improve its performance when computing eigenvalues of narrowly banded, nearly tridiagonal upper Hessenberg matrices. These strategies significantly reduce the computation time at a reasonable level of precision. Compared with the QR algorithm, the BR algorithm requires fewer iteration steps and less storage space without depriving of appropriate precision in solving eigenvalue problems of large-scale power systems. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency of the BR algorithm in pursuing eigenanalysis tasks of 39-, 68-, 115-, 300-, and 600-bus systems. Experiment results suggest that the BR algorithm is a more efficient algorithm for large-scale power system small signal stability eigenanalysis.

Undergraduate teaching of ideal and real fluid flows: The value of real-world experimental projects

This study describes the pedagogical impact of real-world experimental projects undertaken as part of an advanced undergraduate Fluid Mechanics subject at an Australian university. The projects have been organised to complement traditional lectures and introduce students to the challenges of professional design, physical modelling, data collection and analysis. The physical model studies combine experimental, analytical and numerical work in order to develop students’ abilities to tackle real-world problems. A first study illustrates the differences between ideal and real fluid flow force predictions based upon model tests of buildings in a large size wind tunnel used for research and professional testing. A second study introduces the complexity arising from unsteady non-uniform wave loading on a sheltered pile. The teaching initiative is supported by feedback from undergraduate students. The pedagogy of the course and projects is discussed with reference to experiential, project-based and collaborative learning. The practical work complements traditional lectures and tutorials, and provides opportunities which cannot be learnt in the classroom, real or virtual. Student feedback demonstrates a strong interest for the project phases of the course. This was associated with greater motivation for the course, leading in turn to lower failure rates. In terms of learning outcomes, the primary aim is to enable students to deliver a professional report as the final product, where physical model data are compared to ideal-fluid flow calculations and real-fluid flow analyses. Thus the students are exposed to a professional design approach involving a high level of expertise in fluid mechanics, with sufficient academic guidance to achieve carefully defined learning goals, while retaining sufficient flexibility for students to construct there own learning goals. The overall pedagogy is a blend of problem-based and project-based learning, which reflects academic research and professional practice. The assessment is a mix of peer-assessed oral presentations and written reports that aims to maximise student reflection and development. Student feedback indicated a strong motivation for courses that include a well-designed project component.

A GIS Based Assessment of Land Suitable for Growing Hoop Pine in the Atherton, Eacham and Herberton Shires of North Queensland

The area of private land suitable and available for growing hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) on the Atherton Tablelands in North Queensland was modelled using a geographic information system (GIS). In Atherton, Eacham and Herberton shires, approximately 64,700 ha of privately owned land were identified as having a mean annual rainfall and soil type similar to Forestry Plantations Queensland (FPQ) hoop pine growth plots with an approximate growth rate of 20 m3 per annum. Land with slope of over 25° and land covered with native vegetation were excluded in the estimation. If land which is currently used for high-value agriculture is also excluded, the net area of land potentially suitable and available for expansion of hoop pine plantations is approximately 22,900 ha. Expert silvicultural advice emphasized the role of site preparation and weed control in affecting the long-term growth rate of hoop pine. Hence, sites with less than optimal fertility and rainfall may be considered as being potentially suitable for growing hoop pine at a lower growth rate. The datasets had been prepared at various scales and differing precision for their description of land attributes. Therefore, the results of this investigation have limited applicability for planning at the individual farm level but are useful at the regional level to target areas for plantation expansion.

Observation of generalized synchronization of chaos in a driven chaotic system

We report on the experimental observation of the generalized synchronization of chaos in a real physical system. We show that under a nonlinear resonant interaction, the chaotic dynamics of a single mode laser can become functionally related to that of a chaotic driving signal and furthermore as the coupling strength is further increased, the chaotic dynamics of the laser approaches that of the driving signal.

Evolution of a mate recognition system after hybridization between two Drosophila species

I investigated the genetic relationship between male and female components of the mate recognition system and how this relationship influenced the subsequent evolution of the two traits, in a series of replicate populations of interspecific hybrids. Thirty populations of hybrids between Drosophila serrata and Drosophila birchii were established and maintained for 24 generations. At the fifth generation after hybridization, the mating success of hybrid individuals with the D. serrata parent was determined. The genetic correlation between male and female components of the male recognition system, as a consequence of pleiotropy or tight physical linkage, was found to be significant but low (r = 0.388). This result suggested that pleiotropy may play only a minor role in the evolution of mate recognition in this system. At the twenty-fourth generation after hybridization, the mating success of the hybrids was again determined. The evolution of male and female components was investigated by analyzing the direction of evolution of each hybrid line with respect to its initial position in relation to the genetic regression. Male and female components appeared to converge on a single equilibrium point, rather than evolving along trajectories with slope equal to the genetic regression, toward a line of equilibria.

Optimising fed-batch production of recombinant proteins using the baculovirus expression vector system

Fed-batch culture can offer significant improvement in recombinant protein production compared to batch culture in the baculovirus expression vector system (BEVS), as shown by Nguyen et al. (1993) and Bedard et al. (1994) among others. However, a thorough analysis of fed-batch culture to determine its limits in improving recombinant protein production over batch culture has yet to be performed. In this work, this issue is addressed by the optimisation of single-addition fed-batch culture. This type of fed-batch culture involves the manual addition of a multi-component nutrient feed to batch culture before infection with the baculovirus. The nutrient feed consists of yeastolate ultrafiltrate, lipids, amino acids, vitamins, trace elements, and glucose, which were added to batch cultures of Spodoptera frugiperda (Sf9) cells before infection with a recombinant Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (Ac-NPV) expressing beta-galactosidase (beta-Gal). The fed-batch production of beta-Gal was optimised using response surface methods (RSM). The optimisation was performed in two stages, starting with a screening procedure to determine the most important variables and ending with a central-composite experiment to obtain a response surface model of volumetric beta-Gal production. The predicted optimum volumetric yield of beta-Gal in fed-batch culture was 2.4-fold that of the best yields in batch culture. This result was confirmed by a statistical analysis of the best fed-batch and batch data (with average beta-Gal yields of 1.2 and 0.5 g/L, respectively) obtained from this laboratory. The response surface model generated can be used to design a more economical fed-batch operation, in which nutrient feed volumes are minimised while maintaining acceptable improvements in beta-Gal yield. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The development of an early warning system to detect trends in illicit drug use in Australia: The illicit drug reporting-system

Appropriate ways to monitor the availability and use of illicit drugs were examined. Four methods were tested concurrently: (1) a quantitative survey of injecting drug users, (2) a qualitative key informant study of illicit drug users and professionals working in the drug field, (3) examination of existing sources of survey, health and law enforcement data and (4) an ethnographic study of a high risk group of illicit drug users. The first three methods were recommended for inclusion in an ongoing national monitoring system, enabling the collection of both quantitative and qualitative data on a range of illicit drugs in a relatively brief, quick and cost-effective manner. A degree of convergent validity was also noted among these methods, improving the degree of confidence in drug trends. The importance of injecting drug users as a sentinel population of illicit drug users was highlighted, along with optimal methods for qualitative research.

Expression of galectin-1 in the mouse olfactory system

Primary sensory olfactory axons arise from the olfactory neuroepithelium that lines the nasal cavity and then project via the olfactory nerve into the olfactory bulb. The P-galactoside binding lectin, galectin-1,and its laminin ligand have been implicated in the growth of these axons along this pathway. In galectin-1 null mutant mice, a subpopulation of primary sensory olfactory axons fails to reach its targets in the olfactory bulb. In the present study we examined the spatiotemporal expression pattern of galectin-1 in normal mice in order to understand its role in the development of the olfactory nerve pathway. At E15.5, when olfactory axons have already contacted the olfactory bulb, galectin-1 was expressed in the cartilage and mesenchyme surrounding the nasal cavity but was absent from the olfactory neuroepithelium, nerve and bulb. Between E16.5 and birth galectin-1 began to be expressed by olfactory nerve ensheathing cells in the lamina propria of the neuroepithelium and nerve fibre layer. Galectin-1 was neither expressed by primary sensory neurons in the olfactory neuroepithelium nor by their axons in the olfactory nerve. Laminin, a galectin-1 ligand, also exhibited a similar expression pattern in the embryonic olfactory nerve pathway. Our results reveal that galectin-1 is dynamically expressed by glial elements within the nerve fibre layer during a discrete period in the developing olfactory nerve pathway. Previous studies have reported galectin-1 acts as a substrate adhesion molecule by cross-linking primary sensory olfactory neurons to laminin. Thus, the coordinate expression of galectin-1 and laminin in the embryonic nerve fibre layer suggests that these molecules support the adhesion and fasciculation of axons en route to their glomerular targets.

Analysis of pore-fluid pressure gradient and effective vertical-stress gradient distribution in layered hydrodynamic systems

A theoretical analysis is carried out to investigate the pore-fluid pressure gradient and effective vertical-stress gradient distribution in fluid saturated porous rock masses in layered hydrodynamic systems. Three important concepts, namely the critical porosity of a porous medium, the intrinsic Fore-fluid pressure and the intrinsic effective vertical stress of the solid matrix, are presented and discussed. Using some basic scientific principles, we derive analytical solutions and explore the conditions under which either the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient or the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient. Even though the intrinsic pore-fluid pressure gradient can be maintained at the value of the lithostatic pressure gradient in a single layer, it is impossible to maintain it at this value in all layers in a layered hydrodynamic system, unless all layers have the same permeability and porosity simultaneously. However, the intrinsic effective vertical-stress gradient of the solid matrix can be maintained at a value close to the lithostatic pressure gradient in all layers in any layered hydrodynamic system within the scope of this study.