Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions

Analysis of gas emissions by the input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insight into pollution generation in an economy. Structural decomposition analysis, on the other hand, identifies the factors behind the changes in key variables over time. Extending the input-output subsystem model to account for the changes in these variables reveals the channels by which environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the changes in the components of CO2 emissions captured by an input-output subsystems representation. The empirical application is for the Spanish service sector, and the economic and environmental data are for years 1990 and 2000. Our results show that services increased their CO2 emissions mainly because of a rise in emissions generated by non-services to cover the final demand for services. In all service activities, the decomposed effects show an increase in CO2 emissions due to a decrease in emission coefficients (i.e., emissions per unit of output) compensated by an increase in emissions caused both by the input-output coefficients and the rise in demand for services. Finally, large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative changes in the CO2 emissions of the various services but also in the decomposed effects of these changes. Keywords: structural decomposition analysis, input-output subsystems, CO2 emissions, service sector.

Frequency and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-infected persons: the Swiss HIV cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Access to antiretroviral therapy may have changed condom use behavior. In January 2008, recommendations on condom use for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons were published in Switzerland, which allowed for unprotected sex under well-defined circumstances ("Swiss statement"). We studied the frequency, changes over time, and determinants of unprotected sex among HIV-positive persons. METHODS: Self-reported information on sexual preference, sexual partners, and condom use was collected at semi-annual visits in all participants of the prospective Swiss HIV Cohort Study from April 2007 through March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to investigate associations between characteristics of cohort participants and condom use. FINDINGS: A total of 7309 participants contributed to 21,978 visits. A total of 4291 persons (80%) reported sexual contacts with stable partners, 1646 (30%) with occasional partners, and 557 (10%) with stable and occasional partners. Of the study participants, 5838 (79.9%) of 7309 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, and of these, 4816 patients (82%) had a suppressed viral load. Condom use varied widely and differed by type of partner (visits with stable partners, 10,368 [80%] of 12,983; visits with occasional partners, 4300 [88%] of 4880) and by serostatus of stable partner (visits with HIV-negative partners, 7105 [89%] of 8174; visits with HIV-positive partners, 1453 [48%] of 2999). Participants were more likely to report unprotected sex with stable partners if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy, if HIV replication was suppressed, and after the publication of the "Swiss statement." Noninjection drug use and moderate or severe alcohol use were associated with unprotected sex. CONCLUSIONS: Antiretroviral treatment and plasma HIV RNA titers influence sexual behavior of HIV-positive persons. Noninjection illicit drug and alcohol use are important risk factors for unprotected sexual contacts.

CO2 emissions and economic activity: heterogeneity across countries and non stationary series

This paper explores the homogeneity of the functional form, the parameters, and the turning point, when appropriate, of the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity for 31 countries (28 OECD, Brazil, China, and India) during the period 1950 to 2006 using cointegration analysis. With a sample highly overlapped over time between countries, the result reveals that the homogeneity across countries is rejected, both in functional form and in the parameters of long term relationship. This confirms the relevance of considering the heterogeneity in exploring the relationship between air pollution and economic activity to avoid spurious parameter estimates and infer a wrong behavior of the functional form, which could lead to induce that the relationship is reversed when in fact it is direct.

Detection of EPO doping and blood doping: the haematological module of the Athlete Biological Passport.

The increase of the body's capacity to transport oxygen is a prime target for doping athletes in all endurance sports. For this pupose, blood transfusions or erythropoiesis stimulating agents (ESA), such as erythropoietin, NESP, and CERA are used. As direct detection of such manipulations is difficult, biomarkers that are connected to the haematopoietic system (haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes) are monitored over time (Athlete Biological Passport (ABP)) and analyzed using mathematical models to identify patterns suspicious of doping. With this information, athletes can either be sanctioned directly based on their profile or targeted with conventional doping tests. Key issues for the appropriate use of the ABP are correct targeting and use of all available information (e.g. whereabouts, cross sectional population data) in a forensic manner. Future developments of the passport include the correction of all concentration-based variables for shifts in plasma volume, which might considerably increase sensitivity. New passport markers from the genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic level might add further information, but need to be validated before integration into the passport procedure. A first assessment of blood data of federations that have implemented the passport show encouraging signs of a decreased blood-doping prevalence in their athletes, which adds scientific credibility to this innovative concept in the fight against ESA- and blood doping. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Response to Heterologous Leishmanins in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Nigeria: Discovery of a New Focus

A pilot study was undertaken to preliminary illustrate the leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity to distinct antigen preparations (derived from promastigote of either Leishmania major or L. amazonensis, or pooled L. mexicana, L. amazonensis and L. guyanensis) in cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) patients and healthy subjects living in two endemic foci in Nigeria. The study was designed to provide insights into whether cross-species leishmanin, such as that prepared from New World Leishmania could be useful to detect cases of Old World leishmanial infection and to compare the results with LST using L. major-derived leishmanin. The overall LST positivity in individuals from Keana tested with the cross-species leishmanin was 28.7% (27/94), while the positivity rate in the subjects from Kanana tested with the same leishmanin was 54.5% (6/11). Lower positivity values were obtained when L. major (12.5%; 11/88) or L. amazonensis (15.8%; 9/57) was tested as antigen in grossly comparable populations. Moreover, the pooled leishmanin identified most of the subjects (13/14; 92.9%) with active or healed CL, and the maximum reaction sizes were found among positive subjects in this group. No healthy controls (10 total) showed specific DTH response. The LST was useful for assessing the prevalence of subclinical infection and for measuring CL transmission over time. We report for the first time the occurrence of CL in Kanana village of Langtang South local government area of Plateau State

Development and Consequences of Referendum Campaigns in Switzerland, 1981-1999

Since the early 1990s, new forms of referendum campaigns have emerged in the Swiss political arena. In this paper, we examine how referendum campaigns have transformed in Switzerland, focusing on a number of features: their intensity, duration and inclusiveness (i.e., the variety of actors involved). These features are assumed to change in the long run in response to societal changes and in the short run as a function of variations in elite support. We further argue that public knowledge of ballot issues depends on the characteristics of campaigns. To formally test our hypotheses, we draw on advertisement campaigns in six major Swiss newspapers in the four weeks preceding each ballot from 1981 to 1999 and develop a structural equation model. We indeed find that the duration of referendum campaigns has increased over time, while their inclusiveness has decreased. Most importantly, we find that pub­lic knowledge is strongly related to the characteristics of campaigns

Six years of denosumab treatment in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis: results from the first three years of the freedom extension

Background/Purpose: Denosumab (DMAb) is an approved therapy for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at increased risk for fracture. A favorable risk/benefit profile was demonstrated in the pivotal, 3-year FREEDOM trial (Cummings et al NEJM 2009). The open-label, active-treatment FREEDOM Extension study is investigating the efficacy and safety of DMAb for up to 10 years. The Extension trial enrolled women who had received DMAb or placebo in FREEDOM and provides an opportunity to evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of continuous DMAb treatment (long-term group), and to replicate the DMAb findings observed in FREEDOM (cross-over group). Here, we report the results from the first 3 years of the Extension, representing up to 6 continuous years of DMAb exposure.Methods: During the Extension, each woman is scheduled to receive 60 mg DMAb every 6 months and supplemental calcium and vitamin D daily. For the analyses reported here, women from the FREEDOM DMAb group received 3 more years of DMAb for a total of 6 years of exposure (long-term group) and women from the FREEDOM placebo group received 3 years of DMAb exposure (cross-over group).Results: Of the 5928 women eligible for the Extension, 4550 (77%) enrolled (N_2343 long-term; N_2207 cross-over). In the long-term group, further significant mean increases in bone mineral density (BMD) occurred 4044 for cumulative 6-year gains of 15.2% at the lumbar spine and 7.5% at the total hip (Figure). During the first 3 years of DMAb treatment during the Extension, the cross-over group had significant mean gains in BMD at the lumbar spine (9.4%) and total hip (4.8%), similar to those observed in the long-term DMAb group during the first 3 years of FREEDOM (lumbar spine, 10.1%; total hip, 5.7%). Serum CTX was rapidly and similarly reduced after the 1st (cross-over) or 7th (long-term) DMAb dose with the characteristic attenuation observed at the end of the dosing period. In the cross-over group, yearly incidences of new vertebral and nonvertebral fractures were lower than in the FREEDOM placebo group. Fracture incidence remained low in the long-term group. Incidences of adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs did not increase over time with DMAb treatment. There were 2 subjects with AEs adjudicated to ONJ in the cross-over group and 2 in the long-term group. Both cases in the cross-over group healed completely and without further complications; 1 of these subjects continues to receive DMAb. Both women in the long-term group continue to be followed. No atypical femur fractures have been observed to date. Figure. Percent changes in bone mineral density during FREEDOM and the Extension Conclusion: DMAb treatment for 6 continuous years (long-term group) remained well tolerated, maintained reduced bone turnover, and continued to significantly increase BMD. Fracture incidence remained low. DMAb treatment for 3 years in the cross-over group reproduced the original observations in FREEDOM.

Health impact of sport and exercise in emerging adult men: a prospective study.

PURPOSE: Health benefits of sport and exercise are well documented in children, adolescents and adults, but little is known about emerging adulthood-a period of life characterized by significant demographic and developmental changes. The present study aimed to assess the health impact of changes in sport and exercise levels during that specific period of life. METHODS: The analysis used baseline and 15-month follow-up data (N = 4,846) from the cohort study on substance use risk factors. Associations between baseline exercise levels or changes in exercise levels and health indicators (i.e., health-related quality of life, depression, body mass index, alcohol dependence, nicotine dependence and cannabis use disorder) were measured using chi-squared tests and ANOVA. Direction of effects was tested using cross-lagged analysis. RESULTS: At baseline, all health indicator scores were observed to be better for regular exercisers than for other exercise levels. At follow-up, participants who had maintained regular exercise over time had better scores than those who had remained irregular exercisers or had discontinued, but their scores for health-related quality of life and depression were close to those of participants who had adopted regular exercise after the baseline questionnaire. Cross-lagged analysis indicated that regular exercise at baseline was a significant predictor of health-related quality of life and substance use dependence at follow-up, but was itself predicted only by health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: From a health promotion perspective, this study emphasizes how important it is for emerging adult men to maintain, or adopt, regular sport and exercise.

Treatment of gastrointestinal stromal tumor after imatinib and sunitinib.

Purpose of review Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), such as imatinib and sunitinib, have changed the outcome of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) and prolonged survival by many-fold. Unfortunately, treatment failure and tumor progression seem inevitable over time and constitute an unresolved clinical challenge. This article reviews current efforts to overcome drug resistance and progression. Recent findings The major mechanism of resistance toward imatinib and sunitinib is the development of secondary resistance mutations in the kinase domain of KIT. Recent efforts aim at inhibitors with increased activity against resistance mutations or a broader spectrum of activity. Other strategies include indirect KIT inhibition by modulating KIT chaperone proteins or inhibition of KIT-dependent and independent signaling pathways. Summary dThe rapid improvement of our understanding of GIST biology as well as resistance mechanisms towards imatinib and sunitinib will greatly facilitate the development of novel treatment strategies. This article summarizes the results of recently reported third and fourth-line clinical trials in patients with resistant GIST and reviews data of important proof-of-concept studies.

Molecular Epidemiologic Typing Systems of Bacterial Pathogens: Current Issues and Perpectives

The epidemiologic typing of bacterial pathogens can be applied to answer a number of different questions: in case of outbreak, what is the extent and mode of transmission of epidemic clone(s )? In case of long-term surveillance, what is the prevalence over time and the geographic spread of epidemic and endemic clones in the population? A number of molecular typing methods can be used to classify bacteria based on genomic diversity into groups of closely-related isolates (presumed to arise from a common ancestor in the same chain of transmission) and divergent, epidemiologically-unrelated isolates (arising from independent sources of infection). Ribotyping, IS-RFLP fingerprinting, macrorestriction analysis of chromosomal DNA and PCR-fingerprinting using arbitrary sequence or repeat element primers are useful methods for outbreak investigations and regional surveillance. Library typing systems based on multilocus sequence-based analysis and strain-specific probe hybridization schemes are in development for the international surveillance of major pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Accurate epidemiological interpretation of data obtained with molecular typing systems still requires additional research on the evolution rate of polymorphic loci in bacterial pathogens.

Antimalarial Drug Resistance: Surveillance and Molecular Methods for National Malaria Control Programmes

National malaria control programmes have the responsibility to develop a policy for malaria disease management based on a set of defined criteria as efficacy, side effects, costs and compliance. These will fluctuate over time and national guidelines will require periodic re-assessment and revision. Changing a drug policy is a major undertaking that can take several years before being fully operational. The standard methods on which a decision can be taken are the in vivo and the in vitro tests. The latter allow a quantitative measurement of the drug response and the assessment of several drugs at once. However, in terms of drug policy change its results might be difficult to interpret although they may be used as an early warning system for 2nd or 3rd line drugs. The new WHO 14-days in vivo test addresses mainly the problem of treatment failure and of haematological parameters changes in sick children. It gives valuable information on whether a drug still `works'. None of these methods are well suited for large-scale studies. Molecular methods based on detection of mutations in parasite molecules targeted by antimalarial drugs could be attractive tools for surveillance. However, their relationship with in vivo test results needs to be established

Frequency-dependent sexual selection with respect to offspring fitness returns is consistent with predictions from rock-paper-scissors dynamics in the European common lizard

Genetic polymorphism can be maintained over time by negative frequency-dependent (FD) selection induced by Rock-paper-scissors (RPS) social systems. RPS games produce cyclic dynamics, and have been suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, plants, and bacteria. Sexual selection is predicted to accentuate the survival of the future progeny during negative FD survival selection. More specifically, females are predicted to select mates that produce progeny genotypes that exhibit highest survival during survival selection imposed by adult males. However, no empirical evidence demonstrates the existence of FD sexual selection with respect to fitness payoffs of genetic polymorphisms. Here we tested this prediction using the common lizard Zootoca vivipara, a species with three male color morphs (orange, white, yellow) that exhibit morph frequency cycles. In a first step we tested the congruence of the morph frequency change with the predicted change in three independent populations, differing in male color morph frequency and state of the FD morph cycle. Thereafter we ran standardized sexual selection assays in which we excluded alternative mechanisms that potentially induce negative FD selection, and we quantified inter-sexual behavior. The patterns of sexual selection and the observed behavior were in line with context-dependent female mate choice and male behavior played a minor role. Moreover, the strength of the sexual selection was within the magnitude of selection required to produce the observed 3-4-year and 6-8 year morph frequency cycles at low and high altitudes, respectively. In summary, the study provides the first experimental evidence that underpins the crucial assumption of the RPS games suggested to exist in lizards, insects, isopods, and plants; namely, that sexual selection produces negative-FD selection. This indicates that sexual selection, in our study exert by females, might be a crucial driver of the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms.

La gestion des services environnementaux: entre règles et régulation négociée. Six études de cas de services forestiers pour la production d'eau potable dans trois pays

Cette thèse est construite en quatre parties : trois annexes qui présentent six études de cas (env. 800 pages), précédées par une analyse transversale, plus synthétique (env. 150 pages), dont traite ce résumé. Chaque annexe contient une synthèse détaillée des études de cas. Cette thèse aborde la « gestion des ressources naturelles » en affirmant d'emblée que l'appellation est inappropriée, car ce ne sont pas les ressources qui sont gérées, mais leurs usages. Il s'agit donc d'identifier et d'analyser ce qui influence les comportements humains en lien avec la ressource. Cette affirmation fonde la perspective des sciences sociales sur la gestion des ressources naturelles, dans laquelle s'inscrit cette thèse. L'approche néo-institutionnaliste considère que les usages sont influencés par des institutions, qui sont elles-mêmes influencées par les usagers. Ces institutions sont des constructions humaines qui composent le contexte institutionnel dans lequel les acteurs décident de leurs usages (abattre un arbre, prélever de l'eau, etc.). Les usages des ressources ne sont donc jamais libres et il s'agit de comprendre comment ces règles du jeu influencent les pratiques. Elles sont nombreuses, interdépendantes et forment la trame sur laquelle se décident les usages. Pour saisir cette complexité, l'auteur applique le cadre d'analyse des régimes institutionnels des ressources (RIR) qui se limite à l'analyse de deux types de droits d'usages : ceux issues des règles de la propriété (titres de propriété, servitudes, etc.) et ceux issus des politiques publiques (lois, ordonnances, etc.). Le RIR permet d'identifier un « régime institutionnel », spécifique à la ressource étudiée, dont les évolutions peuvent être comparées dans le temps ou entre plusieurs lieux. Dans cette recherche, ce cadre d'analyse a été appliqué au même objet - la gestion forestière dans les zones de captage d'eau souterraine destinée au réseau public - dans trois pays : en France, en Suisse et en Indonésie. Trois années de recherche de terrain ont permis à l'auteur de s'intéresser non seulement aux règles prédéterminées (la réglementation), mais aussi aux règles effectivement activées sur le terrain (la régulation) par les acteurs rencontrés. Les études de cas montrent que les règles prévues sont inégalement activées et que les acteurs privilégient parfois la négociation directe pour résoudre leurs rivalités d'usages, à la place d'invoquer leurs droits acquis. Ce constat conduit l'auteur à proposer un élargissement de la focale du RIR, qui constitue le coeur de sa thèse. On ne s'intéresse plus seulement à ce qui « est » régulé, mais aussi à ce qui ne l'« est pas » et qui échappe à l'application classique du RIR. Ce renversement de perspective est crucial pour comprendre les usages concrets des ressources dans les régimes peu intégrés, où les pratiques s'expliquent davantage par la marge de manoeuvre laissée aux acteurs que par les règles prédéterminées. Cette relecture, testée avec succès dans cette thèse, permet d'intégrer la marge de manoeuvre à l'analyse au moyen du RIR. Elle se concrétise par l'identification des lacunes et incohérences dans les régimes institutionnels étudiés. Le champ d'application du RIR s'en trouve élargi et sa vulgarisation pour des non-spécialistes est facilitée, notamment pour les environnementalistes. La complémentarité entre les approches s'en trouve renforcée. Les résultats montrent deux choses : premièrement les acteurs disposent toujours d'une marge de manoeuvre pour négocier des régulations ponctuelles, qui sont autant d'alternatives à l'application des règles prévues. Deuxièmement, la conclusion d'accords issus de la négociation bi-/multilatérale dépend directement de la marge de manoeuvre laissée par le contexte institutionnel. Ceci explique pourquoi la négociation entre les propriétaires forestiers et les exploitants de captages s'imposent en Indonésie, est envisageable en France, mais n'aboutit pas en Suisse. Les nombreuses tentatives infructueuses de mise en oeuvre de solutions négociées, notamment sous forme de paiements pour services environnementaux (PSE), trouvent ici une explication. - This thesis (written in French) is built in four parts: three annexes that present six case studies (approx. 800 pages), preceded by a transverse, more conceptual analysis (approx. 150 pages), which this summary is about. Each annexe contains a detailed summary of the case studies. 'Natural resource management' is an inappropriate designation because it is not the resources that are managed but the uses made of them, therefore this thesis addresses the identification and analysis of the influences on human behaviour in relation to the resource. This statement roots the social sciences perspective on the management of natural resources, in which this thesis fits. A neoinstitutionalist approach considers that the uses are influenced by institutions, which are themselves influenced by users. These institutions are human constructions that form the institutional context in which the actors decide on the use of resources (felling a tree, collecting water, etc.). Thus, the uses of resources are never independent from institutional influences and it becomes necessary to understand how these rules of the game affect practices. They are numerous, interrelated and form the basis for the uses of resources. To understand this complexity, the author applies the institutional regime resource framework (IRR) which limits the analysis to two types of use rights: those resulting from the property rights (deeds, easements, etc.) and those from public policies (laws, ordinances, etc.). The IRR identifies an 'institutional regime', specific to the resource, from which developments can be compared over time or between several places. In this research, this analytical framework has been applied to the same topic - forest management in the recharging areas of groundwater piped for public supply - in three countries: France, Switzerland and Indonesia. Three years of field research allow the author to look not only at predetermined rules (rules), but also at regulations that are actually activated on the ground (rules-in-use). The case studies show that the predetermined rules are unevenly applied and that sometimes actors favour direct negotiation to resolve their rivalry of uses, instead of invoking their vested rights. From this observation the author proposes an enlargement of the IRR's scope, forming the core of his thesis. The interest covers not only what 'is' regulated, but what 'is not' and so is beyond the classical application of the IRR. This shift in perspective is crucial to understand the concrete uses of resources in poorly integrated regimes, where practices are explained by the margin of manoeuvre left to the actors rather than predetermined rules. This reinterpretation, tested successfully in this research, allows the margin of manoeuvre to be integrated in the analysis using the IRR and is made concrete by the identification of gaps and inconsistencies in the investigated institutional context. The new interpretation of the IRR in this thesis complements and enhances its classical application. In particular, its use and understanding by non-specialists, especially environmentalists, is facilitated. The results show two things: first the actors always have leeway to negotiate ad hoc regulations, which are alternatives to the application of the predefined rules. Second, the conclusion of bi/multilateral negotiated agreements depends directly on the leeway left by the institutional context. This explains why the negotiation between forest owners and operators of water catchments is needed in Indonesia, is possible in France, but does not succeed in Switzerland. This offers an explanation for many unsuccessful attempts to implement negotiated solutions, notably payments for environmental services (PES).

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Placebo effect characteristics observed in a single, international, longitudinal study in Huntington's disease.

BACKGROUND: Classically, clinical trials are based on the placebo-control design. Our aim was to analyze the placebo effect in Huntington's disease. METHODS: Placebo data were obtained from an international, longitudinal, placebo-controlled trial for Huntington's disease (European Huntington's Disease Initiative Study Group). One-hundred and eighty patients were evaluated using the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale over 36 months. A placebo effect was defined as an improvement of at least 50% over baseline scores in the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale, and clinically relevant when at least 10% of the population met it. RESULTS: Only behavior showed a significant placebo effect, and the proportion of the patients with placebo effect ranged from 16% (first visit) to 41% (last visit). Nondepressed patients with better functional status were most likely to be placebo-responders over time. CONCLUSIONS: In Huntington's disease, behavior seems to be more vulnerable to placebo than overall motor function, cognition, and function