Sviluppo e Applicazione di Metodologie per l'Ottimizzazione di Sistemi Energetici

La riduzione dei consumi di combustibili fossili e lo sviluppo di tecnologie per il risparmio energetico sono una questione di centrale importanza sia per l’industria che per la ricerca, a causa dei drastici effetti che le emissioni di inquinanti antropogenici stanno avendo sull’ambiente. Mentre un crescente numero di normative e regolamenti vengono emessi per far fronte a questi problemi, la necessità di sviluppare tecnologie a basse emissioni sta guidando la ricerca in numerosi settori industriali. Nonostante la realizzazione di fonti energetiche rinnovabili sia vista come la soluzione più promettente nel lungo periodo, un’efficace e completa integrazione di tali tecnologie risulta ad oggi impraticabile, a causa sia di vincoli tecnici che della vastità della quota di energia prodotta, attualmente soddisfatta da fonti fossili, che le tecnologie alternative dovrebbero andare a coprire. L’ottimizzazione della produzione e della gestione energetica d’altra parte, associata allo sviluppo di tecnologie per la riduzione dei consumi energetici, rappresenta una soluzione adeguata al problema, che può al contempo essere integrata all’interno di orizzonti temporali più brevi. L’obiettivo della presente tesi è quello di investigare, sviluppare ed applicare un insieme di strumenti numerici per ottimizzare la progettazione e la gestione di processi energetici che possa essere usato per ottenere una riduzione dei consumi di combustibile ed un’ottimizzazione dell’efficienza energetica. La metodologia sviluppata si appoggia su un approccio basato sulla modellazione numerica dei sistemi, che sfrutta le capacità predittive, derivanti da una rappresentazione matematica dei processi, per sviluppare delle strategie di ottimizzazione degli stessi, a fronte di condizioni di impiego realistiche. Nello sviluppo di queste procedure, particolare enfasi viene data alla necessità di derivare delle corrette strategie di gestione, che tengano conto delle dinamiche degli impianti analizzati, per poter ottenere le migliori prestazioni durante l’effettiva fase operativa. Durante lo sviluppo della tesi il problema dell’ottimizzazione energetica è stato affrontato in riferimento a tre diverse applicazioni tecnologiche. Nella prima di queste è stato considerato un impianto multi-fonte per la soddisfazione della domanda energetica di un edificio ad uso commerciale. Poiché tale sistema utilizza una serie di molteplici tecnologie per la produzione dell’energia termica ed elettrica richiesta dalle utenze, è necessario identificare la corretta strategia di ripartizione dei carichi, in grado di garantire la massima efficienza energetica dell’impianto. Basandosi su un modello semplificato dell’impianto, il problema è stato risolto applicando un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica deterministico, e i risultati ottenuti sono stati comparati con quelli derivanti dall’adozione di una più semplice strategia a regole, provando in tal modo i vantaggi connessi all’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottimale. Nella seconda applicazione è stata investigata la progettazione di una soluzione ibrida per il recupero energetico da uno scavatore idraulico. Poiché diversi layout tecnologici per implementare questa soluzione possono essere concepiti e l’introduzione di componenti aggiuntivi necessita di un corretto dimensionamento, è necessario lo sviluppo di una metodologia che permetta di valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ognuna di tali soluzioni alternative. Il confronto fra i diversi layout è stato perciò condotto sulla base delle prestazioni energetiche del macchinario durante un ciclo di scavo standardizzato, stimate grazie all’ausilio di un dettagliato modello dell’impianto. Poiché l’aggiunta di dispositivi per il recupero energetico introduce gradi di libertà addizionali nel sistema, è stato inoltre necessario determinare la strategia di controllo ottimale dei medesimi, al fine di poter valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ciascun layout. Tale problema è stato di nuovo risolto grazie all’ausilio di un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica, che sfrutta un modello semplificato del sistema, ideato per lo scopo. Una volta che le prestazioni ottimali per ogni soluzione progettuale sono state determinate, è stato possibile effettuare un equo confronto fra le diverse alternative. Nella terza ed ultima applicazione è stato analizzato un impianto a ciclo Rankine organico (ORC) per il recupero di cascami termici dai gas di scarico di autovetture. Nonostante gli impianti ORC siano potenzialmente in grado di produrre rilevanti incrementi nel risparmio di combustibile di un veicolo, è necessario per il loro corretto funzionamento lo sviluppo di complesse strategie di controllo, che siano in grado di far fronte alla variabilità della fonte di calore per il processo; inoltre, contemporaneamente alla massimizzazione dei risparmi di combustibile, il sistema deve essere mantenuto in condizioni di funzionamento sicure. Per far fronte al problema, un robusto ed efficace modello dell’impianto è stato realizzato, basandosi sulla Moving Boundary Methodology, per la simulazione delle dinamiche di cambio di fase del fluido organico e la stima delle prestazioni dell’impianto. Tale modello è stato in seguito utilizzato per progettare un controllore predittivo (MPC) in grado di stimare i parametri di controllo ottimali per la gestione del sistema durante il funzionamento transitorio. Per la soluzione del corrispondente problema di ottimizzazione dinamica non lineare, un algoritmo basato sulla Particle Swarm Optimization è stato sviluppato. I risultati ottenuti con l’adozione di tale controllore sono stati confrontati con quelli ottenibili da un classico controllore proporzionale integrale (PI), mostrando nuovamente i vantaggi, da un punto di vista energetico, derivanti dall’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottima.

An Autonomic Framework for Mobile Cloud Computing

This thesis presents the formal definition of a novel Mobile Cloud Computing (MCC) extension of the Networked Autonomic Machine (NAM) framework, a general-purpose conceptual tool which describes large-scale distributed autonomic systems. The introduction of autonomic policies in the MCC paradigm has proved to be an effective technique to increase the robustness and flexibility of MCC systems. In particular, autonomic policies based on continuous resource and connectivity monitoring help automate context-aware decisions for computation offloading. We have also provided NAM with a formalization in terms of a transformational operational semantics in order to fill the gap between its existing Java implementation NAM4J and its conceptual definition. Moreover, we have extended NAM4J by adding several components with the purpose of managing large scale autonomic distributed environments. In particular, the middleware allows for the implementation of peer-to-peer (P2P) networks of NAM nodes. Moreover, NAM mobility actions have been implemented to enable the migration of code, execution state and data. Within NAM4J, we have designed and developed a component, denoted as context bus, which is particularly useful in collaborative applications in that, if replicated on each peer, it instantiates a virtual shared channel allowing nodes to notify and get notified about context events. Regarding the autonomic policies management, we have provided NAM4J with a rule engine, whose purpose is to allow a system to autonomously determine when offloading is convenient. We have also provided NAM4J with trust and reputation management mechanisms to make the middleware suitable for applications in which such aspects are of great interest. To this purpose, we have designed and implemented a distributed framework, denoted as DARTSense, where no central server is required, as reputation values are stored and updated by participants in a subjective fashion. We have also investigated the literature regarding MCC systems. The analysis pointed out that all MCC models focus on mobile devices, and consider the Cloud as a system with unlimited resources. To contribute in filling this gap, we defined a modeling and simulation framework for the design and analysis of MCC systems, encompassing both their sides. We have also implemented a modular and reusable simulator of the model. We have applied the NAM principles to two different application scenarios. First, we have defined a hybrid P2P/cloud approach where components and protocols are autonomically configured according to specific target goals, such as cost-effectiveness, reliability and availability. Merging P2P and cloud paradigms brings together the advantages of both: high availability, provided by the Cloud presence, and low cost, by exploiting inexpensive peers resources. As an example, we have shown how the proposed approach can be used to design NAM-based collaborative storage systems based on an autonomic policy to decide how to distribute data chunks among peers and Cloud, according to cost minimization and data availability goals. As a second application, we have defined an autonomic architecture for decentralized urban participatory sensing (UPS) which bridges sensor networks and mobile systems to improve effectiveness and efficiency. The developed application allows users to retrieve and publish different types of sensed information by using the features provided by NAM4J's context bus. Trust and reputation is managed through the application of DARTSense mechanisms. Also, the application includes an autonomic policy that detects areas characterized by few contributors, and tries to recruit new providers by migrating code necessary to sensing, through NAM mobility actions.

A SUPERAÇÃO DE CONFLITOS PRODUZIDOS PELA ANSIEDADE: UMA CONTRIBUIÇÃO À PRÁXIS PASTORAL, A PARTIR DA TEORIA DA INTERPESSOALIDADE

Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo, esclarecer como a ansiedade desempenha um papel de forte influência em relacionamentos interpessoais e como o conhecimento desta influência, seguido de uma consciência que possibilite sua amenização, pode permitir relacionamentos harmônicos e diminuição de conflitos que fazem parte do cotidiano. A partir de uma análise de natureza bibliográfica, se utilizou autores de áreas correlatas como psicologia, aconselhamento, filosofia e teologia, por entender que existe um grande volume de conhecimentos científicos sobre o tema, os quais poderão acrescentar positivamente ao estudo do mesmo. É utilizada uma dialética que considera a formação das relações sociais, a origem de influências construtoras de condutas intra e interpessoais de um indivíduo, bem como a insatisfação emocional produzida pela ansiedade. A contribuição deste trabalho relaciona-se à viabilidade de se conquistar relacionamentos mais saudáveis; o desenvolvimento da idéia de ação consciente, atitude menos influenciada pela ansiedade; e o realce da importância de uma prática pastoral fundamentada na fé como esperança minimizadora da ansiedade. Sua utilidade aponta para a esperança em relacionamentos interpessoais harmoniosos, não utópicos, mas produtos de conhecimento, discernimento e compreensão da realidade intra e interpessoal do indivíduo.(AU)

Time trials on second-order and variable-learning-rate algorithms

The performance of seven minimization algorithms are compared on five neural network problems. These include a variable-step-size algorithm, conjugate gradient, and several methods with explicit analytic or numerical approximations to the Hessian.

The moving targets algorithm for difficult temporal credit assignment problems

The 'moving targets' algorithm for training recurrent networks is reviewed and applied to a task which demonstrates the ability of this algorithm to use distant contextual information. Some practical difficulties are discussed, especially with regard to the minimization process. Results on performance and computational requirements of several different 2nd-order minimization algorithms are presented for moving target problems.

Mixture density networks

Minimization of a sum-of-squares or cross-entropy error function leads to network outputs which approximate the conditional averages of the target data, conditioned on the input vector. For classifications problems, with a suitably chosen target coding scheme, these averages represent the posterior probabilities of class membership, and so can be regarded as optimal. For problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, however, the conditional averages provide only a very limited description of the properties of the target variables. This is particularly true for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued, as often arises in the solution of inverse problems, since the average of several correct target values is not necessarily itself a correct value. In order to obtain a complete description of the data, for the purposes of predicting the outputs corresponding to new input vectors, we must model the conditional probability distribution of the target data, again conditioned on the input vector. In this paper we introduce a new class of network models obtained by combining a conventional neural network with a mixture density model. The complete system is called a Mixture Density Network, and can in principle represent arbitrary conditional probability distributions in the same way that a conventional neural network can represent arbitrary functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Mixture Density Networks using both a toy problem and a problem involving robot inverse kinematics.

Training with noise is equivalent to Tikhonov regularization

It is well known that the addition of noise to the input data of a neural network during training can, in some circumstances, lead to significant improvements in generalization performance. Previous work has shown that such training with noise is equivalent to a form of regularization in which an extra term is added to the error function. However, the regularization term, which involves second derivatives of the error function, is not bounded below, and so can lead to difficulties if used directly in a learning algorithm based on error minimization. In this paper we show that, for the purposes of network training, the regularization term can be reduced to a positive definite form which involves only first derivatives of the network mapping. For a sum-of-squares error function, the regularization term belongs to the class of generalized Tikhonov regularizers. Direct minimization of the regularized error function provides a practical alternative to training with noise.

Regression with input-dependent noise: A Bayesian treatment

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constant variance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming the bias of maximum likelihood.

Error-correcting codes on a Bethe-like lattice

We analyse Gallager codes by employing a simple mean-field approximation that distorts the model geometry and preserves important interactions between sites. The method naturally recovers the probability propagation decoding algorithm as a minimization of a proper free-energy. We find a thermodynamical phase transition that coincides with information theoretical upper-bounds and explain the practical code performance in terms of the free-energy landscape.

The development of constrained source localisation algorithms for human brain imaging

This work sets out to evaluate the potential benefits and pit-falls in using a priori information to help solve the Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) inverse problem. In chapter one the forward problem in MEG is introduced, together with a scheme that demonstrates how a priori information can be incorporated into the inverse problem. Chapter two contains a literature review of techniques currently used to solve the inverse problem. Emphasis is put on the kind of a priori information that is used by each of these techniques and the ease with which additional constraints can be applied. The formalism of the FOCUSS algorithm is shown to allow for the incorporation of a priori information in an insightful and straightforward manner. In chapter three it is described how anatomical constraints, in the form of a realistically shaped source space, can be extracted from a subject’s Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI). The use of such constraints relies on accurate co-registration of the MEG and MRI co-ordinate systems. Variations of the two main co-registration approaches, based on fiducial markers or on surface matching, are described and the accuracy and robustness of a surface matching algorithm is evaluated. Figures of merit introduced in chapter four are shown to given insight into the limitations of a typical measurement set-up and potential value of a priori information. It is shown in chapter five that constrained dipole fitting and FOCUSS outperform unconstrained dipole fitting when data with low SNR is used. However, the effect of errors in the constraints can reduce this advantage. Finally, it is demonstrated in chapter six that the results of different localisation techniques give corroborative evidence about the location and activation sequence of the human visual cortical areas underlying the first 125ms of the visual magnetic evoked response recorded with a whole head neuromagnetometer.

Ownership characteristics and access to finance:evidence from a survey of large privatised companies in Hungary and Poland

We examine financial constraints and forms of finance used for investment, by analysing survey data on 157 large privatised companies in Hungary and Poland for the period 1998 - 2000. The Bayesian analysis using Gibbs sampling is carried out to obtain inferences about the sample companies' access to finance from a model for categorical outcome. By applying alternative measures of financial constraints we find that foreign companies, companies that are part of domestic industrial groups and enterprises with concentrated ownership are all less constrained in their access to finance. Moreover, we identify alternative modes of finance since different corporate control and past performance characteristics influence the sample firms' choice of finance source. In particular, while being industry-specific, the access to domestic credit is positively associated with company size and past profitability. Industrial group members tend to favour bond issues as well as sells-offs of assets as appropriate types of finance for their investment programmes. Preferences for raising finance in the form of equity are associated with share concentration in a non-monotonic way, being most prevalent in those companies where the dominant owner holds 25%-49% of shares. Close links with a leading bank not only increase the possibility of bond issues but also appear to facilitate access to non-banking sources of funds, in particular, to finance supplied by industrial partners. Finally, reliance on state finance is less likely for the companies whose profiles resemble the case of unconstrained finance, namely, for companies with foreign partners, companies that are part of domestic industrial groups and companies with a strategic investor. Model implications also include that the use of state funds is less likely for Polish than for Hungarian companies.

A variational method and approximations of a Cauchy problem for elliptic equations

A Cauchy problem for general elliptic second-order linear partial differential equations in which the Dirichlet data in H½(?1 ? ?3) is assumed available on a larger part of the boundary ? of the bounded domain O than the boundary portion ?1 on which the Neumann data is prescribed, is investigated using a conjugate gradient method. We obtain an approximation to the solution of the Cauchy problem by minimizing a certain discrete functional and interpolating using the finite diference or boundary element method. The minimization involves solving equations obtained by discretising mixed boundary value problems for the same operator and its adjoint. It is proved that the solution of the discretised optimization problem converges to the continuous one, as the mesh size tends to zero. Numerical results are presented and discussed.

Estimation and inference under economic restrictions

Estimation of economic relationships often requires imposition of constraints such as positivity or monotonicity on each observation. Methods to impose such constraints, however, vary depending upon the estimation technique employed. We describe a general methodology to impose (observation-specific) constraints for the class of linear regression estimators using a method known as constraint weighted bootstrapping. While this method has received attention in the nonparametric regression literature, we show how it can be applied for both parametric and nonparametric estimators. A benefit of this method is that imposing numerous constraints simultaneously can be performed seamlessly. We apply this method to Norwegian dairy farm data to estimate both unconstrained and constrained parametric and nonparametric models.

Non-rectangular perfect reconstruction pulse shaping based ICI reduction in CO-OFDM

In this paper, we propose to increase residual carrier frequency offset tolerance based on short perfect reconstruction pulse shaping for coherent optical-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. The proposed method suppresses the residual carrier frequency offset induced penalty at the receiver, without requiring any additional overhead and exhaustive signal processing. The Q-factor improvement contributed by the proposed method is 1.6 dB and 1.8 dB for time-frequency localization maximization and out-of-band energy minimization pulse shapes, respectively. Finally, the transmission span gain under the influence of residual carrier frequency offset is ̃62% with out-of-band energy minimization pulse shape. © 2014 Optical Society of America.

From HAZAN to WASAN

The article discusses the waste and source-matter analysis (WASAN) group workshop methodology designed to minimize the generation of avoidable hazardous waste. Several areas analyzed using WASAN are the behavior of a process, waste minimization inside that process, and the consequences for waste production from upstream and downstream processes falling outside of design. A group from the Enriched Uranium Residues Recovery Plant (EURRP) in Springfields, England used WASAN to analyze the generation of plastic bag waste.