Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimate Method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany

A physically based gust parameterisation is added to the atmospheric mesoscale model FOOT3DK to estimate wind gusts associated with storms over West Germany. The gust parameterisation follows the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) method and its functionality is verified in this study. The method assumes that gusts occurring at the surface are induced by turbulent eddies in the planetary boundary layer, deflecting air parcels from higher levels down to the surface under suitable conditions. Model simulations are performed with horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 5 km. Ten historical storm events of different characteristics and intensities are chosen in order to include a wide range of typical storms affecting Central Europe. All simulated storms occurred between 1990 and 1998. The accuracy of the method is assessed objectively by validating the simulated wind gusts against data from 16 synoptic stations by means of “quality parameters”. Concerning these parameters, the temporal and spatial evolution of the simulated gusts is well reproduced. Simulated values for low altitude stations agree particularly well with the measured gusts. For orographically exposed locations, the gust speeds are partly underestimated. The absolute maximum gusts lie in most cases within the bounding interval given by the WGE method. Focussing on individual storms, the performance of the method is better for intense and large storms than for weaker ones. Particularly for weaker storms, the gusts are typically overestimated. The results for the sample of ten storms document that the method is generally applicable with the mesoscale model FOOT3DK for mid-latitude winter storms, even in areas with complex orography.

Natural ventilation assessment in typical open an semi-open urban environments under various wind directions

Semi-open street roofs protect pedestrians from intense sunshine and rains. Their effects on natural ventilation of urban canopy layers (UCL) are less understood. This paper investigates two idealized urban models consisting of 4(2×2) or 16(4×4) buildings under a neutral atmospheric condition with parallel (0°) or non-parallel (15°,30°,45°) approaching wind. The aspect ratio (building height (H) / street width (W)) is 1 and building width is B=3H. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were first validated by experimental data, confirming that standard k-ε model predicted airflow velocity better than RNG k-ε model, realizable k–ε model and Reynolds stress model. Three ventilation indices were numerically analyzed for ventilation assessment, including flow rates across street roofs and openings to show the mechanisms of air exchange, age of air to display how long external air reaches a place after entering UCL, and purging flow rate to quantify the net UCL ventilation capacity induced by mean flows and turbulence. Five semi-open roof types are studied: Walls being hung above street roofs (coverage ratio λa=100%) at z=1.5H, 1.2H, 1.1H ('Hung1.5H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.1H' types); Walls partly covering street roofs (λa=80%) at z=H ('Partly-covered' type); Walls fully covering street roofs (λa=100%) at z=H ('Fully-covered' type).They basically obtain worse UCL ventilation than open street roof type due to the decreased roof ventilation. 'Hung1.1H', 'Hung1.2H', 'Hung1.5H' types are better designs than 'Fully-covered' and 'Partly-covered' types. Greater urban size contains larger UCL volume and requires longer time to ventilate. The methodologies and ventilation indices are confirmed effective to quantify UCL ventilation.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt

The warm conveyor belt (WCB) of an extratropical cyclone generally splits into two branches. One branch (WCB1) turns anticyclonically into the downstream upper-level tropospheric ridge, while the second branch (WCB2) wraps cyclonically around the cyclone centre. Here, the WCB split in a typical North Atlantic cold-season cyclone is analysed using two numerical models: the Met Office Unified Model and the COSMO model. The WCB flow is defined using off-line trajectory analysis. The two models represent the WCB split consistently. The split occurs early in the evolution of the WCB with WCB1 experiencing maximum ascent at lower latitudes and with higher moisture content than WCB2. WCB1 ascends abruptly along the cold front where the resolved ascent rates are greatest and there is also line convection. In contrast, WCB2 remains at lower levels for longer before undergoing saturated large-scale ascent over the system's warm front. The greater moisture in WCB1 inflow results in greater net potential temperature change from latent heat release, which determines the final isentropic level of each branch. WCB1 also exhibits lower outflow potential vorticity values than WCB2. Complementary diagnostics in the two models are utilised to study the influence of individual diabatic processes on the WCB. Total diabatic heating rates along the WCB branches are comparable in the two models with microphysical processes in the large-scale cloud schemes being the major contributor to this heating. However, the different convective parameterisation schemes used by the models cause significantly different contributions to the total heating. These results have implications for studies on the influence of the WCB outflow in Rossby wave evolution and breaking. Key aspects are the net potential temperature change and the isentropic level of the outflow which together will influence the relative mass going into each WCB branch and the associated negative PV anomalies at the tropopause-level flow.

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

Ice internal friction: Standard theoretical perspectives on friction codified, adapted for the unusual rheology of ice, and unified

Sea ice contains flaws including frictional contacts. We aim to describe quantitatively the mechanics of those contacts, providing local physics for geophysical models. With a focus on the internal friction of ice, we review standard micro-mechanical models of friction. The solid's deformation under normal load may be ductile or elastic. The shear failure of the contact may be by ductile flow, brittle fracture, or melting and hydrodynamic lubrication. Combinations of these give a total of six rheological models. When the material under study is ice, several of the rheological parameters in the standard models are not constant, but depend on the temperature of the bulk, on the normal stress under which samples are pressed together, or on the sliding velocity and acceleration. This has the effect of making the shear stress required for sliding dependent on sliding velocity, acceleration, and temperature. In some cases, it also perturbs the exponent in the normal-stress dependence of that shear stress away from the value that applies to most materials. We unify the models by a principle of maximum displacement for normal deformation, and of minimum stress for shear failure, reducing the controversy over the mechanism of internal friction in ice to the choice of values of four parameters in a single model. The four parameters represent, for a typical asperity contact, the sliding distance required to expel melt-water, the sliding distance required to break contact, the normal strain in the asperity, and the thickness of any ductile shear zone.

Clinical test responses to different orthoptic exercise regimes in typical young adults

Purpose The relative efficiency of different eye exercise regimes is unclear, and in particular the influences of practice, placebo and the amount of effort required are rarely considered. This study measured conventional clinical measures after different regimes in typical young adults. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were directed to carry out eye exercises 3 times daily for two weeks. Exercises were directed at improving blur responses (accommodation), disparity responses (convergence), both in a naturalistic relationship, convergence in excess of accommodation, accommodation in excess of convergence, and a placebo regime. They were compared to two control groups, neither of which were given exercises, but the second of which were asked to make maximum effort during the second testing. Results Instruction set and participant effort were more effective than many exercises. Convergence exercises independent of accommodation were the most effective treatment, followed by accommodation exercises, and both regimes resulted in changes in both vergence and accommodation test responses. Exercises targeting convergence and accommodation working together were less effective than those where they were separated. Accommodation measures were prone to large instruction/effort effects and monocular accommodation facility was subject to large practice effects. Conclusions Separating convergence and accommodation exercises seemed more effective than exercising both systems concurrently and suggests that stimulation of accommodation and convergence may act in an additive fashion to aid responses. Instruction/effort effects are large and should be carefully controlled if claims for the efficacy of any exercise regime are to be made.

Change in convergence and accommodation after two weeks of eye exercises in typical young adults

Abstract: Introduction Although eye exercises appear to help heterophoria, convergence insufficiency and intermittent strabismus, true treatment effects can be confounded by placebo, practice and encouragement factors. This study assessed objective changes in vergence and accommodation responses in typical naïve young adults after two weeks of exercises compared to control conditions to assess the extent of treatment effects occur above other factors. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were randomly assigned to 6 exercise groups or 2 no-treatment groups. Treatment targeted i) accommodation, ii)vergence, iii) both, iv) convergence>accommodation, v)accommodation>convergence, or vi) a placebo. All were re-tested under identical conditions, except for the second control group who were additionally encouraged during testing. Objective accommodation and vergence were assessed to a range of targets moving in depth containing combinations of blur, disparity and proximity/looming cues. Results Response gain improved more for less naturalistic targets where more improvement was possible. Convergence exercises improved vergence for near across all targets (P=.035). Mean accommodation changed similarly,but non-significantly. No other treatment group differed significantly from the non-encouraged control group, while encouraging effort produced significantly increased vergence (P=.004) and accommodation (P=.005) gains in the other control group. Conclusions True treatment effects were small, only significantly better after vergence exercises to a non-accommodative target, and were rarely related to response they were designed to improve. Exercising accommodation without convergence made no difference to accommodation to cues containing detail. Additional effort improved objective responses the most, so should be controlled carefully in research, and considered when auditing treatment.

Relative values: residential leasehold reform in England and Wales - valuation of lease extension and enfranchisement

This research report was commissioned by the DETR and examines valuation issues relating to leasehold enfanchisement and lease extension - the right for flat owners to collectively purchase the freehold or buy a longer lease. The two factors examined examined in detail are the yield to be applied when capitalising the ground rent and the relative value of leases with a relatively short period left to run as against the value of the freehold or a new long lease, which determines the level of 'marriage level'. The research report will be of interest to all those involved in the valuation of residential leasehold property and those with an interest in legislative proposals for leasehold reform.

Tuning chelation by the surfactant-like peptide A6H using predetermined pH values

We examine the self-assembly of a peptide A6H comprising a hexa-alanine sequence A6 with a histidine (H) “head group”, which chelates Zn2+ cations. We study the self assembly of A6H and binding of Zn2+ ions in ZnCl2 solutions, under acidic and neutral conditions. A6H self-assembles into nanotapes held together by a β-sheet structure in acidic aqueous solutions. By dissolving A6H in acidic ZnCl2 solutions, the carbonyl oxygen atoms in A6H chelate the Zn2+ ions and allow for β-sheet formation at lower concentrations, consequently reducing the onset concentration for nanotape formation. A6H mixed with water or ZnCl2 solutions under neutral conditions produces short sheets or pseudocrystalline tapes, respectively. The imidazole ring of A6H chelates Zn2+ ions in neutral solutions. The internal structure of nanosheets and pseudocrystalline sheets in neutral solutions is similar to the internal structure of A6H nanotapes in acidic solutions. Our results show that it is possible to induce dramatic changes in the self-assembly and chelation sites of A6H by changing the pH of the solution. However, it is likely that the amphiphilic nature of A6H determines the internal structure of the self-assembled aggregates independent from changes in chelation.

Are power calculations useful? A multicentre neuroimaging study

There are now many reports of imaging experiments with small cohorts of typical participants that precede large-scale, often multicentre studies of psychiatric and neurological disorders. Data from these calibration experiments are sufficient to make estimates of statistical power and predictions of sample size and minimum observable effect sizes. In this technical note, we suggest how previously reported voxel-based power calculations can support decision making in the design, execution and analysis of cross-sectional multicentre imaging studies. The choice of MRI acquisition sequence, distribution of recruitment across acquisition centres, and changes to the registration method applied during data analysis are considered as examples. The consequences of modification are explored in quantitative terms by assessing the impact on sample size for a fixed effect size and detectable effect size for a fixed sample size. The calibration experiment dataset used for illustration was a precursor to the now complete Medical Research Council Autism Imaging Multicentre Study (MRC-AIMS). Validation of the voxel-based power calculations is made by comparing the predicted values from the calibration experiment with those observed in MRC-AIMS. The effect of non-linear mappings during image registration to a standard stereotactic space on the prediction is explored with reference to the amount of local deformation. In summary, power calculations offer a validated, quantitative means of making informed choices on important factors that influence the outcome of studies that consume significant resources.

Spiritual capital: the co-evolution of an ethical framework based on Abrahamic religious values in the Islamic tradition

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to investigate how values from within Abrahamic religions could be adopted to improve liberal market economies’ (LMEs’) corporate governance business practices. Design/methodology/approach – The concept of spiritual capitalism is explained from an Islamic perspective by adopting three universal Abrahamic values to critically analyse LMEs and offer an ethical alternative to current capitalism concerns. Findings – It is found that LMEs can be improved by considering all stakeholders, putting ethics before economics, and introducing shared risk/reward plus lower debt. Originality/value – The paper compares LMEs/Co-ordinated market economies (CMEs)/Islamic countries economies (ICEs) within an ethical framework for LMEs.

Effects of land management on different forms of soil carbon in olive groves in Mediterranean areas

This study analyses soil organic carbon (SOC) and hot-water extractable carbon (HWC), both measures of soil quality, under different land management: (1) conventional tillage (CT); (2) CT plus the addition of oil mill waste alperujo (A); (3) CT plus the addition of oil mill waste olive leaves (L); (4) no tillage with chipped pruned branches (NT1); and (5) no tillage with chipped pruned branches and weeds (NT2); in a typical Mediterranean agricultural area; the olive groves of Andalucía, southern Spain. SOC values in CT, A, NT1 and NT2 decreased with depth, but in NT2 the surface horizon (0-5 cm) had higher values than the other treatments, 47% more than the average values in the other three soils. In L, SOC also decreased with depth, although there was an increase of 88.5% from the first (0-10 cm) to the second horizon (10-16 cm). Total SOC stock values were very similar under A (101.9 Mg ha−1), CT (101.7 Mg ha−1), NT1 (105.8 Mg ha−1) and NT2 (111.3 Mg ha−1, if we consider the same depth of the others). However, SOC under L was significantly higher (p < 0.05) at 250.2 Mg ha−1. HWC decreased with depth in A, CT and NT1. NT2 and L followed the same pattern as the other management types but with a higher value in the surface horizon (2.3 and 4.9 mg g−1 respectively). Overall, our results indicate that application of oil mill waste olive leaves under CT (L) is a good management practice to improve SOC and reduce waste.

Reflexive stasis, scale reversal and the myth of modern cinema

This chapter looks at three films whose Portuguese urban settings offer a privileged ground for the re-evaluation of the classical-modern-postmodern categorisation with regard to cinema. They are The State of Things (Wim Wenders, 1982), Foreign Land (Walter Salles and Daniela Thomas, 1995) and Mysteries of Lisbon (Raúl Ruiz, 2010). In them, the city is the place where characters lose their bearings, names, identities, and where vicious circles, mirrors, replicas and mise-en-abyme bring the vertiginous movement that had characterised the modernist city of 1920s cinema to a halt. Curiously, too, it is the place where so-called postmodern aesthetics finally finds an ideal home in self-ironical tales that expose the film medium’s narrative shortcomings. Intermedial devices, whether Polaroid stills or a cardboard cut-out theatre, are then resorted to in order to turn a larger-than-life reality into framed, manageable narrative miniatures. The scaled-down real, however, turns out to be a disappointing simulacrum, a memory ersatz that unveils the illusory character of cosmopolitan teleology. In my approach, I start by examining the intertwined and transnational genesis of these films that resulted in three correlated visions of the end of history and of storytelling, typical of postmodern aesthetics. I move on to consider intermedia miniaturism as an attempt to stop time within movement, an equation that inevitably brings to mind the Deleuzian movement-time binary, which I revisit in an attempt to disentangle it from the classical-modern opposition. I conclude by proposing reflexive stasis and scale reversal as the common denominator across all modern projects, hence, perhaps, a more advantageous model than modernity to signify artistic and political values.