Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation -intramural and external R&D- on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140. Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile regression

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Innovation sources and productivity: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation —intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalan firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and services industries.

Clinical benefit of fulvestrant in postmenopausal women with advanced breast cancer and primary or acquired resistance to aromatase inhibitors: final results of phase II Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research Trial (SAKK 21/00).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of fulvestrant, an estrogen receptor antagonist, in postmenopausal women with hormone-responsive tumors progressing after aromatase inhibitor (AI) treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a phase II, open, multicenter, noncomparative study. Two patient groups were prospectively considered: group A (n=70) with AI-responsive disease and group B (n=20) with AI-resistant disease. Fulvestrant 250 mg was administered as intramuscular injection every 28 (+/-3) days. RESULTS: All patients were pretreated with AI and 84% also with tamoxifen or toremifene; 67% had bone metastases and 45% liver metastases. Fulvestrant administration was well tolerated and yielded a clinical benefit (CB; defined as objective response or stable disease [SD] for >or=24 weeks) in 28% (90% confidence interval [CI] 19% to 39%) of patients in group A and 37% (90% CI 19% to 58%) of patients in group B. Median time to progression (TTP) was 3.6 (95% CI 3.0 to 4.8) months in group A and 3.4 (95% CI 2.5 to 6.7) months in group B. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 30% of patients who had progressed following prior AI treatment gained CB with fulvestrant, thereby delaying indication to start chemotherapy. Prior response to an AI did not appear to be predictive for benefit with fulvestrant.

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with or without panitumumab in patients with wild-type KRAS, locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC): a randomized, multicenter, phase II trial SAKK 41/07.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a randomized, phase II, multicenter study to evaluate the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mAb panitumumab (P) in combination with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with standard-dose capecitabine as neoadjuvant treatment for wild-type KRAS locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with wild-type KRAS, T3-4 and/or N+ LARC were randomly assigned to receive CRT with or without P (6 mg/kg). The primary end-point was pathological near-complete or complete tumor response (pNC/CR), defined as grade 3 (pNCR) or 4 (pCR) histological regression by Dworak classification (DC). RESULTS: Forty of 68 patients were randomly assigned to P + CRT and 28 to CRT. pNC/CR was achieved in 21 patients (53%) treated with P + CRT [95% confidence interval (CI) 36%-69%] versus 9 patients (32%) treated with CRT alone (95% CI: 16%-52%). pCR was achieved in 4 (10%) and 5 (18%) patients, and pNCR in 17 (43%) and 4 (14%) patients. In immunohistochemical analysis, most DC 3 cells were not apoptotic. The most common grade ≥3 toxic effects in the P + CRT/CRT arm were diarrhea (10%/6%) and anastomotic leakage (15%/4%). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of panitumumab to neoadjuvant CRT in patients with KRAS wild-type LARC resulted in a high pNC/CR rate, mostly grade 3 DC. The results of both treatment arms exceeded prespecified thresholds. The addition of panitumumab increased toxicity.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Automatic front-crawl temporal phase detection using adaptive filtering of inertial signals

This study introduces a novel approach for automatic temporal phase detection and inter-arm coordination estimation in front-crawl swimming using inertial measurement units (IMUs). We examined the validity of our method by comparison against a video-based system. Three waterproofed IMUs (composed of 3D accelerometer, 3D gyroscope) were placed on both forearms and the sacrum of the swimmer. We used two underwater video cameras in side and frontal views as our reference system. Two independent operators performed the video analysis. To test our methodology, seven well-trained swimmers performed three 300 m trials in a 50 m indoor pool. Each trial was in a different coordination mode quantified by the index of coordination. We detected different phases of the arm stroke by employing orientation estimation techniques and a new adaptive change detection algorithm on inertial signals. The difference of 0.2 +/- 3.9% between our estimation and video-based system in assessment of the index of coordination was comparable to experienced operators' difference (1.1 +/- 3.6%). The 95% limits of agreement of the difference between the two systems in estimation of the temporal phases were always less than 7.9% of the cycle duration. The inertial system offers an automatic easy-to-use system with timely feedback for the study of swimming.

Estimation of lean meat content in pig carcasses using X-ray Computed Tomography and PLS regression

Lean meat percentage (LMP) is an important carcass quality parameter. The aim of this work is to obtain a calibration equation for the Computed Tomography (CT) scans with the Partial Least Square Regression (PLS) technique in order to predict the LMP of the carcass and the different cuts and to study and compare two different methodologies of the selection of the variables (Variable Importance for Projection — VIP- and Stepwise) to be included in the prediction equation. The error of prediction with cross-validation (RMSEPCV) of the LMP obtained with PLS and selection based on VIP value was 0.82% and for stepwise selection it was 0.83%. The prediction of the LMP scanning only the ham had a RMSEPCV of 0.97% and if the ham and the loin were scanned the RMSEPCV was 0.90%. Results indicate that for CT data both VIP and stepwise selection are good methods. Moreover the scanning of only the ham allowed us to obtain a good prediction of the LMP of the whole carcass.

Reversibility of cardiac fibrosis in mice chronically infected with Trypanosoma cruzi, under specific chemotherapy

This investigation was performed to verify the effect of specific chemotherapy (Benznidazole or MK-346) on the inflammatory and fibrotic cardiac alterations in mice chronically infected with the strains 21 SF (Type II) and Colombian (Type III) of Trypanosoma cruzi. To obtain chronically infected mice, two groups of 100 Swiss mice each, were infected with either the 21 SF or the Colombian strain (2x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 and 5x 10 [raised to the power of] 4 blood forms respectively). The rate of morality in the acute phase was of 80% for both groups. Twenty surviving mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 20 with the Colombian strain were then divided in treated and untreated groups. Excluding those that died during the course of treatment, 14 mice chronically infected with the 21 SF strain and 15 with the Colombian strain were evaluated in the present study. Chemotherapy was performed with Benznidazole (N-benzil-2-nitro-1-imidazolacetamide) in the dose of 100mg/k.b.w/day, for 60 days, or with the MK-436(3(1-methyl-5 nitroimidazol-2-yl) in two daily doses of 250 mg/k.b.w, for 20 days. Parasitological cure tests were performed (xenodiagnosis, haemoculture, subinovulation of the blood into newborn mice), and serological indirect immunofluorescence test. The treated and untreated mice as well as intact controls were killed at different periods after treatment and the heart were submitted to histopathological study with hematoxilineosin and picrosirius staining; ultrastructural study; collagen immunotyping, fibronectin and laminin identification by immunofluorescence tests. Results: the untreated controls either infected with 21 SF or Colombian strain, showed inflammatory and fibrotic alterations that were mild to moderate with the 21 SF strain and intense with the Colombian strain. Redpicrosirius staining showed bundles of collagen in the interstitial space and around cardiac fibers. Increased deposits of mitritial components and collagen fibers, macrophages and fibroblasts appeared at the ultra structural examination. Deposits of fibronectin, laminin, pro-III and IV collagens were seen, most intense in those infected with the Colombian strain. Treated nice, parasitologically cured, presented clear-cut regression of the inflammatory lesions and of the interstitial matrix thickening. Mice infected with the Colombian strain and treated with MK-436, was parasitologically cured in 5/6 cases and showed mild inflammatory infiltration and fibrosis. The mice treated with Benznidazole (Colombian strain) did not cure and showed moderate fibrosis and inflammation. Treatment of the nice infected with the 21 SF with Benznidazole determined parasitological cure of all animals, that showed mild inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardium. The cured mice of all groups and treated but uncured showed collagen degradation at electronmicroscopy and decrease of immunofluorescence pattern of the matrix.

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation - intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140 Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile Regression

Mean platelet volume in the early phase of acute ischemic stroke is not associated with severity or functional outcome.

Background: Previous studies reported an increase of mean platelet volume (MPV) in patients with acute ischemic stroke. However, its correlation with stroke severity has not been investigated. Moreover, studies on the association of MPV with functional outcome yielded inconsistent results. Methods: We included all consecutive ischemic stroke patients admitted to CHUV (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois) Neurology Service within 24 h after stroke onset who had MPV measured on admission. The association of MPV with stroke severity (NIHSS score at admission and at 24 h) and outcome (Rankin Scale score at 3 and 12 months) was analyzed in univariate analysis. The chi(2) test was performed to compare the frequency of minor strokes (NIHSS score </=4) and good functional outcome (Rankin Scale score </=2) across MPV quartiles. The ANOVA test was used to compare MPV between stroke subtypes according to the TOAST classification. Student's two-tailed unpaired t test was performed to compare MPV between lacunar and nonlacunar strokes. MPV was generated at admission by the Sysmex XE-2100 automated cell counter (Sysmex Corporation, Kobe, Japan) from EDTA blood samples. Results: There was no significant difference in the frequency of minor strokes (p = 0.46) and good functional outcome (p = 0.06) across MPV quartiles. MPV was not associated with stroke severity or outcome in univariate analysis. There was no significant difference in MPV between stroke subtypes according to the TOAST classification (p = 0.173) or between lacunar and nonlacunar strokes (10.50 +/- 0.91 vs. 10.40 +/- 0.81 fl, p = 0.322). Conclusions: MPV, assessed within 24 h after ischemic stroke onset, is not associated with stroke severity or functional outcome.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

NovoTTF-100A versus physician's choice chemotherapy in recurrent glioblastoma: A randomised phase III trial of a novel treatment modality.

PURPOSE: NovoTTF-100A is a portable device delivering low-intensity, intermediate frequency electric fields via non-invasive, transducer arrays. Tumour Treatment Fields (TTF), a completely new therapeutic modality in cancer treatment, physically interfere with cell division. METHODS: Phase III trial of chemotherapy-free treatment of NovoTTF (20-24h/day) versus active chemotherapy in the treatment of patients with recurrent glioblastoma. Primary end-point was improvement of overall survival. RESULTS: Patients (median age 54years (range 23-80), Karnofsky performance status 80% (range 50-100) were randomised to TTF alone (n=120) or active chemotherapy control (n=117). Number of prior treatments was two (range 1-6). Median survival was 6.6 versus 6.0months (hazard ratio 0.86 [95% CI 0.66-1.12]; p=0.27), 1-year survival rate was 20% and 20%, progression-free survival rate at 6months was 21.4% and 15.1% (p=0.13), respectively in TTF and active control patients. Responses were more common in the TTF arm (14% versus 9.6%, p=0.19). The TTF-related adverse events were mild (14%) to moderate (2%) skin rash beneath the transducer arrays. Severe adverse events occurred in 6% and 16% (p=0.022) of patients treated with TTF and chemotherapy, respectively. Quality of life analyses favoured TTF therapy in most domains. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first controlled trial evaluating an entirely novel cancer treatment modality delivering electric fields rather than chemotherapy. No improvement in overall survival was demonstrated, however efficacy and activity with this chemotherapy-free treatment device appears comparable to chemotherapy regimens that are commonly used for recurrent glioblastoma. Toxicity and quality of life clearly favoured TTF.

Probability of achieving optimal molecular response to imatinib in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients: Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) relationships observed under field-conditions

Objectives: Imatinib has been increasingly proposed for therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM), as trough concentrations (Cmin) correlate with response rates in CML patients. This analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of imatinib exposure on optimal molecular response rates in a large European cohort of patients followed by centralized TDM.¦Methods: Sequential PK/PD analysis was performed in NONMEM 7 on 2230 plasma (PK) samples obtained along with molecular response (PD) data from 1299 CML patients. Model-based individual Bayesian estimates of exposure, parameterized as to initial dose adjusted and log-normalized Cmin (log-Cmin) or clearance (CL), were investigated as potential predictors of optimal molecular response, while accounting for time under treatment (stratified at 3 years), gender, CML phase, age, potentially interacting comedication, and TDM frequency. PK/PD analysis used mixed-effect logistic regression (iterative two-stage method) to account for intra-patient correlation.¦Results: In univariate analyses, CL, log-Cmin, time under treatment, TDM frequency, gender (all p<0.01) and CML phase (p=0.02) were significant predictors of the outcome. In multivariate analyses, all but log-Cmin remained significant (p<0.05). Our model estimates a 54.1% probability of optimal molecular response in a female patient with a median CL of 14.4 L/h, increasing by 4.7% with a 35% decrease in CL (percentile 10 of CL distribution), and decreasing by 6% with a 45% increased CL (percentile 90), respectively. Male patients were less likely than female to be in optimal response (odds ratio: 0.62, p<0.001), with an estimated probability of 42.3%.¦Conclusions: Beyond CML phase and time on treatment, expectedly correlated to the outcome, an effect of initial imatinib exposure on the probability of achieving optimal molecular response was confirmed in field-conditions by this multivariate analysis. Interestingly, male patients had a higher risk of suboptimal response, which might not exclusively derive from their 18.5% higher CL, but also from reported lower adherence to the treatment. A prospective longitudinal study would be desirable to confirm the clinical importance of identified covariates and to exclude biases possibly affecting this observational survey.

Phase 1 Study of an Inactivated Vaccine against American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Normal Volunteers in Brazil

A Phase 1 double-blind placebo-controlled study was performed to evaluate a vaccine against American tegumentary leishmaniasis in 61 healthy male volunteers. Side effects and the immune response to the vaccine were evaluated, with 1- and 2- dose schemes, with intervals of 7 or 21 days, each dose containing 1440 mg of protein N antigen of a single strain of Leishmania amazonensis (PH 8) diluted in merthiolated saline (1:10,000). Merthiolated saline and an inert substance were used as placebos. No significant clinical alterations were found following the respective injections in the vaccinated individuals as compared to the placebos, except for local pain, which was associated significantly with injection of the vaccine. The laboratory alterations we observed bore no association with the clinical findings and were unimportant. We observed no differences between the groups with regard to seroconversion or the Montenegro skin test. However, the group that received a single dose of the vaccine and the one that received two doses with a 21-day interval displayed cutaneous induration significantly larger than in the control group, with 100%, 100%, and 66% conversion in the skin test, respectively. We concluded that the vaccine does not present any major side effect that would contraindicate its use in healthy individuals.