Prediction of tread block forces for a free-rolling tyre in contact with a rough road

This paper describes a new approach to model the forces on a tread block for a free-rolling tyre in contact with a rough road. A theoretical analysis based on realistic tread mechanical properties and road roughness is presented, indicating partial contact between a tread block and a rough road. Hence an asperity-scale indentation model is developed using a semi-empirical formulation, taking into account both the rubber viscoelasticity and the tread block geometry. The model aims to capture the essential details of the contact at the simplest level, to make it suitable as part of a time-domain dynamic analysis of the coupled tyre-road system. The indentation model is found to have a good correlation with the finite element (FE) predictions and is validated against experimental results using a rolling contact rig. When coupled to a deformed tyre belt profile, the indentation model predicts normal and tangential force histories inside the tyre contact patch that show good agreement with FE predictions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V..

A novel MPT noise prediction methodology for highly-integrated propulsion systems with inlet flow distortion

Embedded propulsion systems, such as for example used in advanced hybrid-wing body aircraft, can potentially offer major fuel burn and noise reduction benefits but introduce challenges in the aerodynamic and acoustic integration of the high-bypass ratio fan system. A novel approach is proposed to quantify the effects of non-uniform flow on the generation and propagation of multiple pure tone noise (MPTs). The new method is validated on a conventional inlet geometry first. The ultimate goal is to conduct a parametric study of S-duct inlets in order to quantify the effects of inlet design parameters on the acoustic signature. The key challenge is that the mechanism underlying the distortion transfer, noise source generation and propagation through the non-uniform flow field are inherently coupled such that a simultaneous computation of the aerodynamics and acoustics is required. The technical approach is based on a body force description of the fan blade row that is able to capture the distortion transfer and the MPT noise generation mechanisms while greatly reducing computational cost. A single, 3-D full-wheel unsteady CFD simulation, in which the Euler equations are solved to second-order spatial and temporal accuracy, simultaneously computes the MPT noise generation and its propagation in distorted mean flow. Several numerical tools were developed to enable the implementation of this new approach. Parametric studies were conducted to determine appropriate grid and time step sizes for the propagation of acoustic waves. The Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings integral method is used to propagate the noise to far field receivers. Non-reflecting boundary conditions are implemented through the use of acoustic buffer zones. The body force modeling approach is validated and proof-of-concept studies demonstrate the generation of disturbances at both blade-passing and shaft-order frequencies using the perturbed body force method. The full methodology is currently being validated using NASA's Source Diagnostic Test (SDT) fan and inlet geometry. Copyright © 2009 by Jeff Defoe, Alex Narkaj & Zoltan Spakovszky.

Reinforcement learning using a continuous time actor-critic framework with spiking neurons.

Animals repeat rewarded behaviors, but the physiological basis of reward-based learning has only been partially elucidated. On one hand, experimental evidence shows that the neuromodulator dopamine carries information about rewards and affects synaptic plasticity. On the other hand, the theory of reinforcement learning provides a framework for reward-based learning. Recent models of reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity have made first steps towards bridging the gap between the two approaches, but faced two problems. First, reinforcement learning is typically formulated in a discrete framework, ill-adapted to the description of natural situations. Second, biologically plausible models of reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity require precise calculation of the reward prediction error, yet it remains to be shown how this can be computed by neurons. Here we propose a solution to these problems by extending the continuous temporal difference (TD) learning of Doya (2000) to the case of spiking neurons in an actor-critic network operating in continuous time, and with continuous state and action representations. In our model, the critic learns to predict expected future rewards in real time. Its activity, together with actual rewards, conditions the delivery of a neuromodulatory TD signal to itself and to the actor, which is responsible for action choice. In simulations, we show that such an architecture can solve a Morris water-maze-like navigation task, in a number of trials consistent with reported animal performance. We also use our model to solve the acrobot and the cartpole problems, two complex motor control tasks. Our model provides a plausible way of computing reward prediction error in the brain. Moreover, the analytically derived learning rule is consistent with experimental evidence for dopamine-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity.

Dynamic Covariance Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure to capture shifts in market conditions and c) large computational costs. To address these problems we introduce a novel dynamic model for time-changing covariances. Over-fitting and local optima are avoided by following a Bayesian approach instead of computing point estimates. Changes in market conditions are captured by assuming a diffusion process in parameter values, and finally computationally efficient and scalable inference is performed using particle filters. Experiments with financial data show excellent performance of the proposed method with respect to current standard models.

Vibration from railways: Can we achieve better than +/-10dB prediction accuracy?

This paper examines the sources of uncertainly in models used to predict vibration from underground railways. It will become clear from this presentation that by varying parameters by a small amount, consistent with uncertainties in measured data, the predicted vibration levels vary significantly, often by more than 10dB. This error cannot be forecast. Small changes made to soil parameters (Compressive and Shear Wave velocities and density), to slab bending stiffness and mass and to the measurement position give rise to changes in vibration levels of more than lOdB. So if 10dB prediction error results from small uncertainties in soil parameters and measurement position it cannot be sensible to rely on prediction models for accuracy better than 10dB. The presentation will demonstrate in real time the use of the new - and freely-available - PiP software for calculating vibration from railway tunnels in real time.

A single-Stream jet noise prediction model for a family of chevron nozzles

This study develops a single-stream jet noise prediction model for a family of chevron nozzles. An original equation is proposed for the fourth-order space-time cross-correlations. They are expressed in flow parameters such as streamwise circulation and turbulent kinetic energy. The cross-correlations based on a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flowfield showed a good agreement with those based on a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) flowfield. This proves that the proposed equation describes the cross-correlations accurately. With this novel source description, there is an excellent agreement between our model's far-field noise predictions and measurements1 for a wide range of frequencies and radiation angles. Our model captures the spectral shape, amplitude and peak frequency very well. This establishes that our model holds good for a family of chevron nozzles. As our model provides quick and accurate predictions, a parametric study was performed to understand the effects of a chevron nozzle geometry on jet noise and thrust loss. Chevron penetration is the underpinning factor for jet noise reduction. The reduction of jet noise per unit thrust loss decreases linearly with chevron penetration. The number of chevrons also has a considerable effect on jet noise.

A coupled hydro-mechanical analysis for prediction of hydraulic fracture propagation in saturated porous media using EFG mesh-less method

The details of the Element Free Galerkin (EFG) method are presented with the method being applied to a study on hydraulic fracturing initiation and propagation process in a saturated porous medium using coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modelling. In this EFG method, interpolation (approximation) is based on nodes without using elements and hence an arbitrary discrete fracture path can be modelled.The numerical approach is based upon solving two governing partial differential equations of equilibrium and continuity of pore water simultaneously. Displacement increment and pore water pressure increment are discretized using the same EFG shape functions. An incremental constrained Galerkin weak form is used to create the discrete system of equations and a fully implicit scheme is used for discretization in the time domain. Implementation of essential boundary conditions is based on the penalty method. In order to model discrete fractures, the so-called diffraction method is used.Examples are presented and the results are compared to some closed-form solutions and FEM approximations in order to demonstrate the validity of the developed model and its capabilities. The model is able to take the anisotropy and inhomogeneity of the material into account. The applicability of the model is examined by simulating hydraulic fracture initiation and propagation process from a borehole by injection of fluid. The maximum tensile strength criterion and Mohr-Coulomb shear criterion are used for modelling tensile and shear fracture, respectively. The model successfully simulates the leak-off of fluid from the fracture into the surrounding material. The results indicate the importance of pore fluid pressure in the initiation and propagation pattern of fracture in saturated soils. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Prediction and suppression of strong dispersive coupling in microracetrack channel drop filters

For a four-port microracetrack channel drop filter, unexpected transmission characteristics due to strong dispersive coupling are demonstrated by the light tunneling between the input-output waveguides and the resonator, where a large dropping transmission at off-resonance wavelengths is observed by finite-difference time-domain simulation. It causes a severe decline of the extinction ratio and finesse. An appropriate decrease of the coupling strength is found to suppress the dispersive coupling and greately increase the extinction ratio and finesse, a decreased coupling strength can be realized by the application of an asymmetrical coupling waveguide structure. In addition, the profile of the coupling dispersion in the transmission spectra can be predicted based on a coupled mode theory analysis of an equivalent system consisting of two coupling straight waveguides. The effects of structure parameters on the transmission spectra obtained by this method agree well with the numerical results. It is useful to avoid the strong dispersive coupling region in the filter design. (c) 2007 Optical Society of America.

An Accurate and Fast Behavioral Model for PLL Frequency Synthesizer Phase Noise/Spurs Prediction

This paper presents a behavior model for PLL Frequency Synthesizer. All the noise sources are modeled with noise voltages or currents in time-domain. An accurate VCO noise model is introduced, including both thermal noise and 1/f noise. The behavioral model can be co-simulated with transistor level circuits with fast speed and provides more accurate phase noise and spurs prediction. Comparison shows that simulation results match very well with measurement results.

Study on Water Resources Regulation and Reservoir Operating Prediction for Suppression of Salt Water Intrusion in the Pearl River Estuary

Salt water intrusion occurred frequently during dry season in Modaomen waterway of the Pearl River Estuary. With the development of region's economy and urbanization, the salt tides affect the region's water supply more and more seriously in recent years. Regulation and allocation of freshwater resources of the upper rivers of the estuary to suppress the salt tides is becoming important measures for ensuring the water supply security of the region in dry season. The observation data analysis showed that the flow value at the Wuzhou hydrometric station on the upper Xijiang river had a good correlation with the salinity in Modaomen estuary. Thus the flow rate of Wuzhou has been used as a control variable for suppression of salt tides in Modaomen estuary. However, the runoff at Wuzhou mainly comes from the discharge of Longtan reservoir on the upper reaches of Xijiang river and the runoff in the interval open valley between Longtan and Wuzhou sections. As the long distance and many tributaries as well as the large non-controlled watershed between this two sections, the reservoir water scheduling has a need for reasonable considering of interaction between the reservoir regulating discharge and the runoff process of the interval open watershed while the deployment of suppression flow at Wuzhou requires longer lasting time and high precision for the salt tide cycles. For this purpose, this study established a runoff model for Longtan - Wuzhou interval drainage area and by model calculations and observation data analysis, helped to understand the response patterns of the flow rate at Wuzhou to the water discharge of Longtan under the interval water basin runoff participating conditions. On this basis, further discussions were taken on prediction methods of Longtan reservoir discharge scheduling scheme for saline intrusion suppression and provided scientific and typical implementation programs for effective suppression flow process at the Wuzhou section.

SATELLITE REMOTE-SENSING PREDICTION OF JAPANESE PILCHARD FISHING GROUND IN THE HUANGHAI SEA AND THE EAST-CHINA-SEA

The thermophily, fishing season and central fishing ground of Japanese pilchard (Sardinops melanosticta) were studied by using satellite remote sensing (SRS) and other methods in Haizhou Bay and Tsushima waters during 1986-1990. A rapid prediction method of fishing ground is presented. Moreover, the results indicated that the thermophilic values of the fish stock are 11-20 degrees C and both fishing grounds are in increasing temperature process from the beginning to the end of the fishing period. The Japanese pilchards gather vigorously at the sea surface temperature of 15-17 degrees C. The water temperature is a key factor affecting the fishing season and the catch of the fishing ground. The increasing temperature process restricts the fishing season development and central fishing ground formation. The accuracy of 15 predictions made in the Haizhou Bay fishing ground is up to 91.3%, and 37 predictions made in the Tsushima, fishing ground shorten the fish detection time by 13.4% - 22% on the average.

A Radial Basis Function Approach to Financial Time Series Analysis

Nonlinear multivariate statistical techniques on fast computers offer the potential to capture more of the dynamics of the high dimensional, noisy systems underlying financial markets than traditional models, while making fewer restrictive assumptions. This thesis presents a collection of practical techniques to address important estimation and confidence issues for Radial Basis Function networks arising from such a data driven approach, including efficient methods for parameter estimation and pruning, a pointwise prediction error estimator, and a methodology for controlling the "data mining'' problem. Novel applications in the finance area are described, including customized, adaptive option pricing and stock price prediction.

Resolution prediction and optimization of temperature programme in comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography

A model is developed for predicting the resolution of interested component pair and calculating the optimum temperature programming condition in the comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC). Based on at least three isothermal runs, retention times and the peak widths at half-height on both dimensions are predicted for any kind of linear temperature-programmed run on the first dimension and isothermal runs on the second dimension. The calculation of the optimum temperature programming condition is based on the prediction of the resolution of "difficult-to-separate components" in a given mixture. The resolution of all the neighboring peaks on the first dimension is obtained by the predicted retention time and peak width on the first dimension, the resolution on the second dimension is calculated only for the adjacent components with un-enough resolution on the first dimension and eluted within a same modulation period on the second dimension. The optimum temperature programming condition is acquired when the resolutions of all components of interest by GC x GC separation meet the analytical requirement and the analysis time is the shortest. The validity of the model has been proven by using it to predict and optimize GC x GC temperature programming condition of an alkylpyridine mixture. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent Hyperstar algorithm for robust vehicle navigation in time-dependent stochastic road networks.

The vehicle navigation problem studied in Bell (2009) is revisited and a time-dependent reverse Hyperstar algorithm is presented. This minimises the expected time of arrival at the destination, and all intermediate nodes, where expectation is based on a pessimistic (or risk-averse) view of unknown link delays. This may also be regarded as a hyperpath version of the Chabini and Lan (2002) algorithm, which itself is a time-dependent A* algorithm. Links are assigned undelayed travel times and maximum delays, both of which are potentially functions of the time of arrival at the respective link. The driver seeks probabilities for link use that minimise his/her maximum exposure to delay on the approach to each node, leading to the determination of the pessimistic expected time of arrival. Since the context considered is vehicle navigation where the driver is not making repeated trips, the probability of link use may be interpreted as a measure of link attractiveness, so a link with a zero probability of use is unattractive while a link with a probability of use equal to one will have no attractive alternatives. A solution algorithm is presented and proven to solve the problem provided the node potentials are feasible and a FIFO condition applies for undelayed link travel times. The paper concludes with a numerical example.

Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.