Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

Quantifying Transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in Commercial Broiler Flocks

Since meat from poultry colonized with Campylobacter spp. is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, human exposure should be reduced by, among other things, prevention of colonization of broiler flocks. To obtain more insight into possible sources of introduction of Campylobacter into broiler flocks, it is essential to estimate the moment that the first bird in a flock is colonized. If the rate of transmission within a flock were known, such an estimate could be determined from the change in the prevalence of colonized birds in a flock over time. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of transmission of Campylobacter using field data gathered for 5 years for Australian broiler flocks. We used unique sampling data for 42 Campylobacter jejuni-colonized flocks and estimated the transmission rate, which is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by one colonized bird per day. The estimate was 2.37 +/- 0.295 infections per infectious bird per day, which implies that in our study population colonized flocks consisting of 20,000 broilers would have an increase in within-flock prevalence to 95% within 4.4 to 7.2 days after colonization of the first broiler. Using Bayesian analysis, the moment of colonization of the first bird in a flock was estimated to be from 21 days of age onward in all flocks in the study. This study provides an important quantitative estimate of the rate of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks, which could be helpful in future studies on the epidemiology of Campylobacter in the field.

Susceptibility of source plants to sugarcane Fiji disease virus influences the acquisition and transmission of the virus by the planthopper vector Perkinsiella saccharicida

Fiji leaf gall (FLG) caused by Sugarcane Fiji disease virus (SCFDV) is transmitted by the planthopper Perkinsiella saccharicida. FLG is managed through the identification and exploitation of plant resistance. The glasshouse-based resistance screening produced inconsistent transmission results and the factors responsible for that are not known. A series of glasshouse trials conducted over a 2-year period was compared to identify the factors responsible for the erratic transmission results. SCFDV transmission was greater when the virus was acquired by the vector from a cultivar that was susceptible to the virus than when the virus was acquired from a resistant cultivar. Virus acquisition by the vector was also greater when the vector was exposed to the susceptible cultivars than when exposed to the resistant cultivar. Results suggest that the variation in transmission levels is due to variation in susceptibility of sugarcane cultivars to SCFDV used for virus acquisition by the vector.

Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis Virus from the Black Flying Fox, Pteropus alecto, to Culex annulirostris Mosquitoes, Despite the Absence of Detectable Viremia.

To determine the potential role of flying foxes in transmission cycles of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Australia, we exposed Pteropus alecto (Megachiroptera: Pteropididae) to JEV via infected Culex annulirostris mosquitoes or inoculation. No flying foxes developed symptoms consistent with JEV infection. Anti-JEV IgG antibodies developed in 6/10 flying foxes exposed to infected Cx. annulirostris and in 5/5 inoculated flying foxes. Low-level viremia was detected by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction in 1/5 inoculated flying foxes and this animal was able to infect recipient mosquitoes. Although viremia was not detected in any of the 10 flying foxes that were exposed to JEV by mosquito bite, two animals infected recipient mosquitoes. Likewise, an inoculated flying fox without detectable viremia infected recipient mosquitoes. Although infection rates in recipient mosquitoes were low, the high population densities in roosting camps, coupled with migratory behavior indicate that flying foxes could play a role in the dispersal of JEV.

Micro-CT based characterisation of changes to the vascular network following closed soft tissue trauma and cryotherapy

This project has investigated how the architecture of the blood vessels supplying nutrients to skeletal muscles is affected by muscle contusion injuries, and how it changes during healing with or without initial treatment of the injury by icing. In order to do this, we used contrast agents to visualise blood vessels in 3D with micro-computed tomography imaging. This research significantly contributes to the fields of orthopaedics, traumatology and sports medicine, as it improves our understanding of muscle contusion injuries. Furthermore, the methods developed in this thesis may help to improve the diagnosis and monitoring of these injuries.

Application of Haar functions for transmission line and transformer differential protection

The development of algorithms, based on Haar functions, for extracting the desired frequency components from transient power-system relaying signals is presented. The applications of these algorithms to impedance detection in transmission line protection and to harmonic restraint in transformer differential protection are discussed. For transmission line protection, three modes of application of the Haar algorithms are described: a full-cycle window algorithm, an approximate full-cycle window algorithm, and a half-cycle window algorithm. For power transformer differential protection, the combined second and fifth harmonic magnitude of the differential current is compared with that of fundamental to arrive at a trip decision. The proposed line protection algorithms are evaluated, under different fault conditions, using realistic relaying signals obtained from transient analysis conducted on a model 400 kV, 3-phase system. The transformer differential protection algorithms are also evaluated using a variety of simulated inrush and internal fault signals.

Dynamic Bayesian network inferencing for non-homogeneous complex systems

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) provide a versatile platform for predicting and analysing the behaviour of complex systems. As such, they are well suited to the prediction of complex ecosystem population trajectories under anthropogenic disturbances such as the dredging of marine seagrass ecosystems. However, DBNs assume a homogeneous Markov chain whereas a key characteristics of complex ecosystems is the presence of feedback loops, path dependencies and regime changes whereby the behaviour of the system can vary based on past states. This paper develops a method based on the small world structure of complex systems networks to modularise a non-homogeneous DBN and enable the computation of posterior marginal probabilities given evidence in forwards inference. It also provides an approach for an approximate solution for backwards inference as convergence is not guaranteed for a path dependent system. When applied to the seagrass dredging problem, the incorporation of path dependency can implement conditional absorption and allows release from the zero state in line with environmental and ecological observations. As dredging has a marked global impact on seagrass and other marine ecosystems of high environmental and economic value, using such a complex systems model to develop practical ways to meet the needs of conservation and industry through enhancing resistance and/or recovery is of paramount importance.

Structural origin of set-reset processes in Ge15Te83Si2 glass investigated using in situ Raman scattering and transmission electron microscopy

We report here that the structural origin of an easily reversible Ge15Te83Si2 glass can be a promising candidate for phase change random access memories. In situ Raman scattering studies on Ge15Te83Si2 sample, undertaken during the amorphous set and reset processes, indicate that the degree of disorder in the glass is reduced from off to set state. It is also found that the local structure of the sample under reset condition is similar to that in the amorphous off state. Electron microscopic studies on switched samples indicate the formation of nanometric sized particles of c-SiTe2 structure. ©2009 American Institute of Physics

Transmission of Correlated Sources Over a Fading Multiple Access Channel

In this paper we address the problem of transmission of correlated sources over a fading multiple access channel (MAC). We provide sufficient conditions for transmission with given distortions. Next these conditions are specialized to a Gaussian MAC (GMAC). Transmission schemes for discrete and Gaussian sources over a fading GMAC are considered. Various power allocation strategies are also compared.

VEGFR-3 and Tie pathways in vascular network formation

The blood and lymphatic vascular systems are essential for life, but they may become harnessed for sinister purposes in pathological conditions. For example, tumors learn to grow a network of blood vessels (angiogenesis), securing a source of oxygen and nutrients for sustained growth. On the other hand, damage to the lymph nodes and the collecting lymphatic vessels may lead to lymphedema, a debilitating condition characterized by peripheral edema and susceptibility to infections. Promoting the growth of new lymphatic vessels (lymphangiogenesis) is an attractive approach to treat lymphedema patients. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang1), a ligand for the endothelial receptor tyrosine kinases Tie1 and Tie2. The Ang1/Tie2 pathway has previously been implicated in promoting endothelial stability and integrity of EC monolayers. The studies presented here elucidate a novel function for Ang1 as a lymphangiogenic factor. Ang1 is known to decrease the permeability of blood vessels, and could thus act as a more global antagonist of plasma leakage and tissue edema by promoting growth of lymphatic vessels and thereby facilitating removal of excess fluid and other plasma components from the interstitium. These findings reinforce the idea that Ang1 may have therapeutic value in conditions of tissue edema. VEGFR-3 is present on all endothelia during development, but in the adult its expression becomes restricted to the lymphatic endothelium. VEGF-C and VEGF-D are ligands for VEGFR-3, and potently promote lymphangiogenesis in adult tissues, with direct and remarkably specific effects on the lymphatic endothelium in adult tissues. The data presented here show that VEGF-C and VEGF-D therapy can restore collecting lymphatic vessels in a novel orthotopic model of breast cancer-related lymphedema. Furthermore, the study introduces a novel approach to improve VEGF-C/VEGF-D therapy by using engineered heparin-binding forms of VEGF-C, which induced the rapid formation of organized lymphatic vessels. Importantly, VEGF-C therapy also greatly improved the survival and integration of lymph node transplants. The combination of lymph node transplantation and VEGF-C therapy provides a basis for future therapy of lymphedema. In adults, VEGFR-3 expression is restricted to the lymphatic endothelium and the fenestrated endothelia of certain endocrine organs. These results show that VEGFR-3 is induced at the onset of angiogenesis in the tip cells that lead the formation of new vessel sprouts, providing a tumor-specific vascular target. VEGFR-3 acts downstream of VEGF/VEGFR-2 signals, but, once induced, can sustain angiogenesis when VEGFR-2 signaling is inhibited. The data presented here implicate VEGFR-3 as a novel regulator of sprouting angiogenesis along with its role in regulating lymphatic vessel growth. Targeting VEGFR-3 may provide added efficacy to currently available anti-angiogenic therapeutics, which typically target the VEGF/VEGFR-2 pathway.

WinBUGS code to run a network meta-analysis

WinBUGS code and data to reproduce our network meta-analysis from "Control strategies to prevent total hip replacement-related infections: a systematic review and mixed treatment comparison" published in BMJ Open.

Quasi-2D XY Magnetic Properties and Slow Relaxation in a Body Centered Metal Organic Network of [Co-4] Clusters

Octahedral Co2+ centers have been connected by mu(3)-OH and mu(2)-OH2 units forming [Co-4] clusters which are linked by pyrazine forming a two-dimensional network. The two-dimensional layers are bridged by oxybisbenzoate (OBA) ligands giving rise to a three-dimensional structure. The [Co-4] clusters bond with the pyrazine and the OBA results in a body-centered arrangement of the clusters, which has been observed for the first time. Magnetic studies reveal a noncollinear frustrated spin structure of the bitriangular cluster, resulting in a net magnetic moment of 1.4 mu B per cluster. For T > 32 K, the correlation length of the cluster moments shows a stretched-exponential temperature dependence typical of a Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless model, which points to a quasi-2D XY behavior. At lower temperature and down to 14 K, the compound behaves as a soft ferromagnet and a slow relaxation is observed, with an energy barrier of ca. 500 K. Then, on further cooling, a hysteretic behavior takes place with a coercive field that reaches 5 Tat 4 K. The slow relaxation is assigned to the creation/annihilation of vortex-antivortex pairs, which are the elementary excitations of a 2D XY spin system.

Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis.

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

Distance Relay Co-ordination Using Support Vector Machines in Power Transmission System

In this paper, a new approach to enhance the transmission system distance relay co-ordination is presented. The approach depends on the apparent impedance loci seen by the distance relay during all possible disturbances. In a distance relay, the impedance loci seen at the relay location is obtained by extensive transient stability studies. Support vector machines (SVMs), a class of patterns classifiers are used in discriminating zone settings (zone-1, zone-2 and zone-3) using the signals to be used by the relay. Studies on a sample 9-bus are presented for illustrating the proposed scheme.