Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Winter sowing for more reliable boll filling in Central Queensland

The Central Highlands region has a unique climate that presents both challenges and novel farming systems opportunities for cotton production. We have been re-examining the Emerald climate in a bid to identify opportunities that might enable the production of more consistent cotton yields and quality in what can be a highly variable climate. A detailed climatic analysis identified that spring and early summer is the most optimal period for boll growth and maturation. However, to unlock this potential requires unseasonal winter sowing that is 4 to 6 weeks earlier than the traditional mid-September sowing. Our experiments have sought answers to two questions: i) how much earlier can cotton be sown for reliable crop establishment and high yield; ii) can degradable plastic film mulches minimise the impact of potentially cold temperatures on crop establishment and early vigour. Initial data suggests August sowing offers the potential to grow a high yield at a time of year with reduced risk of cloud and high night temperatures during boll growth. For the past two seasons late winter sowing (with and without film) has resulted in a compact plant with high retention that physiologically matures by the beginning of January. Even with the spectre of replanting cotton in some seasons due to frost in August, early sowing would appear to offer the opportunity for more efficient crop input usage, simplified agronomic management and new crop rotation options during late summer and autumn. This talk will present an overview of results to date.

What influences fungal communities in cotton soils

Soilborne diseases such as Fusarium wilt, Black root rot and Verticillium wilt have significant impact on cotton production. Fungi are an important component of soil biota with capacity to affect pathogen inoculum levels and their disease causing potential. Very little is known about the soil fungal community structure and management effects in Australian cotton soils. We analysed surface soils from ongoing field experiments monitoring cotton performance and disease incidence in three cotton growing regions, collected prior to 2013 planting, for the genetic diversity and abundance as influenced by soil type, environment and management practices and link it with disease incidence and suppression. Results from the 28S LSU rRNA sequencing based analysis indicated a total of 370 fungal genera in all the cotton soils and the top 25 genera in abundance accounted for the major portion of total fungal community. There were significant differences in the composition and genetic diversity of soil fungi between the different field sites from the three cotton growing regions. Results for diversity indices showed significantly greater diversity in the long-term crop rotation experiment at Narrabri (F6E) and experiments at Cowan and Goondiwindi compared to the Biofumigation and D1 field experiments at ACRI, Narrabri. Diversity was lowest in the soils under brassica crop rotation in Biofumigation experiment. Overall, the diversity and abundance of soil fungal community varied significantly in the three cotton growing regions indicating soil type and environmental effects. These results suggest that changes in soil fungal community may play a notable role in soilborne disease incidence in cotton.

Silverleaf whitefly resistance management

Silverleaf whitefly (SLW) is a major late season pest of cotton due to its potential to contaminate cotton lint with honeydew. To prevent this, management is often reliant on the use of insecticides to control SLW populations. With selection pressure SLW develop resistance to insecticides they are exposed to, resulting in spray failures. Our lab tests resistance levels in SLW populations collected from across the cotton industry. In this presentation I will provide an update of emerging SLW resistance issues the cotton industry is facing.

Growth and development of three key summer grasses in Australian cotton systems

Awnless barnyard grass, feathertop Rhodes grass, and windmill grass are important weeds in Australian cotton systems. In October 2014, an experiment was established to investigate the phenological plasticity of these species. Seed of these species were planted in a glasshouse every four weeks and each cohort grown for 6 months. A developmental response to day length was observed in barnyard grass but not in the other species. Days to maturity increased with each planting for feathertop Rhodes and windmill grass for the first six cohorts. Barnyard grass showed a similar pattern in growth for seeds planted from October to December with an increase in the onset of maturity from 51 to 58 days. However, the onset of maturity for cohorts planted between January and March decreased to between 50 and 52 days. All species had a decrease in the total number of panicles produced from the first four plantings. Feathertop Rhodes grass planted in October produced 41 panicles compared to those planted at the end of December producing 30 panicles, barnyard grass had a decrease from 99 to 47 panicles and windmill grass 37 to 15 panicles on average. By comparing the development of these key weed species over 12 months, detailed information on the phenological plasticity of these species will be obtained. This information will contribute to more informed management decisions by improving our understanding of appropriate weed control timings or herbicide rates depending on weed emergence and development.

Is Australia ready for triple gene herbicide stack technology?

Integration of multiple herbicide-resistant genes (trait stacking) into crop plants would allow over the top application of herbicides that are otherwise fatal to crops. The US has just approved Bollgard II® XtendFlex™ cotton which has dicamba, glyphosate and glufosinate resistance traits stacked. The pace of glyphosate resistance evolution is expected to be slowed by this technology. In addition, over the top application of two more herbicides may help to manage hard to kill weeds in cotton such as flax leaf fleabane and milk thistle. However, there are some issues that need to be considered prior to the adoption of this technology. Wherever herbicide tolerant technology is adopted, volunteer crops can emerge as a weed problem, as can herbicide resistant weeds. For cotton, seed movement is the most likely way for resistant traits to move around. Management of multiple stack volunteers may add additional complexity to volunteer management in cotton fields and along roadsides. This paper attempts to evaluate the pros and cons of trait stacking technology by analysing the available literature in other crop growing regions across the world. The efficacy of dicamba and glufosinate on common weeds of the Australian cotton system, herbicide resistance evolution, synergy and antagonisms due to herbicide mixtures, drift hazards and the evolution of herbicide resistance to glyphosate, glufosinate and dicamba were analysed based on the available literature.

CottonInfo Extending Research

There are many ways in which research messages and findings can be extended to the expansive cotton community. As everyone learns differently it is crucial that information is delivered in a variety of ways to meet the various learning needs of the CottonInfo team’s broad audience. In addition different cotton production areas often require targeted information to address specific challenges. Successful implementation of innovative research outcomes typically relies on a history of cultivated communication between the researcher and the end-user, the grower. The CottonInfo team, supported by a joint venture between Cotton Seed Distributors, Cotton Research Development Corporation, Cotton Australia and other collaborative partners, represents a unique model of extension in Australian agriculture. Industry research is extended via regionally based Regional Development Officers backed by support from Technical Specialists. The 2015 Cotton Irrigation Technology Tour is one example of a successful CottonInfo capacity building activity. This tour took seven CRDC funded irrigation-specific researchers to Emerald, Moree and Nevertire to showcase their research and technologies. These events provided irrigators and consultants with the opportunity to hear first-hand from researchers about their technologies and how they could be applied onfarm. This tour was an example of how the CottonInfo team can connect growers and researchers, not only to provide an avenue for growers to learn about the latest irrigation research, but for researchers to receive feedback about their current and future irrigation research.

New developments in UAV remote sensing for pest management and the implications for cotton

Efficient crop monitoring and pest damage assessments are key to protecting the Australian agricultural industry and ensuring its leading position internationally. An important element in pest detection is gathering reliable crop data frequently and integrating analysis tools for decision making. Unmanned aerial systems are emerging as a cost-effective solution to a number of precision agriculture challenges. An important advantage of this technology is it provides a non-invasive aerial sensor platform to accurately monitor broad acre crops. In this presentation, we will give an overview on how unmanned aerial systems and machine learning can be combined to address crop protection challenges. A recent 2015 study on insect damage in sorghum will illustrate the effectiveness of this methodology. A UAV platform equipped with a high-resolution camera was deployed to autonomously perform a flight pattern over the target area. We describe the image processing pipeline implemented to create a georeferenced orthoimage and visualize the spatial distribution of the damage. An image analysis tool has been developed to minimize human input requirements. The computer program is based on a machine learning algorithm that automatically creates a meaningful partition of the image into clusters. Results show the algorithm delivers decision boundaries that accurately classify the field into crop health levels. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further research towards automated crop protection assessments in the cotton industry, with applications in detecting, quantifying and monitoring the presence of mealybugs, mites and aphid pests.

Response of irrigated cotton to applied nitrogen

Like all high yielding farming systems nitrogen (N) is a key component to their productivity and profitability and Australian irrigated cotton growers are tending to apply more N than is required for the level of lint yield that is being achieved. This suggests either over application of N or inefficient systems limiting the response of cotton to N inputs. To investigate this four replicated trials were established in commercial fields during the 2014/15 season. The trials were aiming to measure the difference in response of irrigated cotton to the application of N under flood and overhead irrigation systems. The application treatments utilized eight upfront rates of applied N, ranging from 0 N kg/ha to a maximum of 410 kg N/ha, with three of the fours trials receiving a growerdetermined in-crop application of N in the irrigation water. The two flood irrigation systems had lower lint yields from similar levels of N input compared to one of the overhead irrigated sites; the result from the second overhead site was impacted by disease. This paper discusses the response of plant N uptake, lint yield and fertilizer N recovery to N application..

The importance of cotton disease surveys in Queensland for monitoring endemic diseases and detecting new pathogens and pests

The cotton industry in Australia funds biannual disease surveys conducted by plant pathologists. The objective of these surveys is to monitor the distribution and importance of key endemic pests and record the presence or absence of new or exotic diseases. Surveys have been conducted in Queensland since 2002/03, with surveillance undertaken by experienced plant pathologists. Monitoring of endemic diseases indicates the impact of farming practices on disease incidence and severity. The information collected gives direction to cotton disease research. Routine diagnostics has provided early detection of new disease problems which include 1) the identification of Nematospora coryli, a pathogenic yeast associated with seed and internal boll rot; and 2) Rotylenchulus reniformis, a plant-parasitic nematode. This finding established the need for an intensive survey of the Theodore district revealing that reniform was prevalent across the district at populations causing up to 30% yield loss. Surveys have identified an exotic defoliating strain (VCG 1A) and non-defoliating strains of Verticillium dahliae, which cause Verticillium wilt. An intensive study of the diversity of V. dahliae and the impact these strains have on cotton are underway. Results demonstrate the necessity of general multi-pest surveillance systems in broad acre agriculture in providing (1) an ongoing evaluation of current integrated disease management practices and (2) early detection for a suite of exotic pests and previously unknown pests.

BYGUM – a new tool for BarnYard Grass Understanding and Management

Weed management has become increasingly challenging for cotton growers in Australia in the last decade. Glyphosate, the cornerstone of weed management in the industry, is waning in effectiveness as a result of the evolution of resistance in several species. One of these, awnless barnyard grass, is very common in Australian cotton fields, and is a prime example of the new difficulties facing growers in choosing effective and affordable management strategies. RIM (Ryegrass Integrated Management) is a computer-based decision support tool developed for the south-western Australian grains industry. It is commonly used there as a tool for grower engagement in weed management thinking and strategy development. We used RIM as the basis for a new tool that can fulfil the same types of functions for subtropical Australian cotton-grains farming systems. The new tool, BYGUM, provides growers with a robust means to evaluate five-year rotations including testing the economic value of fallows and fallow weed management, winter and summer cropping, cover crops, tillage, different herbicide options, herbicide resistance management, and more. The new model includes several northernregion- specific enhancements: winter and summer fallows, subtropical crop choices, barnyard grass seed bank, competition, and ecology parameters, and more freedom in weed control applications. We anticipate that BYGUM will become a key tool for teaching and driving the changes that will be needed to maintain sound weed management in cotton in the near future.

Composts addition may improve biology in cotton soils

Composts can provide a source of organic carbon and nutrients for soil biota and increase soil fertility as well as provide other biological and structural benefits hence compost addition to cotton soils is seen as a way to improve cotton soil biological health and fertility. In a six month incubation experiment we analysed the changes in microbial populations and activities related to C and N cycling following the application of feedlot, poultry manure and gin trash compost materials. A significant variation in the chemical composition, e.g. major nutrients and trace elements, was found between the three compost products. The feedlot compost generally contained higher levels of dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen and bicarbonate extractable phosphorus whereas the Gin trash compost had lower carbon and nutrient concentrations. The effect of compost addition @ 5 and 10t/ha generally increased microbial activity but the effect was only evident during the first two weeks of incubation. Composts effects on the abundance of total bacteria (16S), nitrifying (amoA), nitrogen fixing (nifH) and denitrifying bacteria (nosZ) and total fungi (ITS gene) varied between different composts. The addition of feedlot and poultry compost material significantly increased the levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) in soil compared to that in control soils while ‘Gin trash’ compost had no effect. These differences reflected in the microbial catabolic diversity changes in the compost amended soils. Therefore, chemical analysis of the compost material before application is recommended to more fully consider its’ potential benefits.

Can patches of glyphosate-resistant Echinochloa colona be eradicated?

Glyphosate-resistant Echinochloa colona L. (Link) is becoming common in non-irrigated cotton systems. Echinochloa colona is a small seeded species that is not wind-blown and has a relatively short seed bank life. These characteristics make it a potential candidate to attempt to eradicate populations resistant to glyphosate when they are detected. A long term systems experiment was developed to determine the feasibility of attempting to eradicate glyphosate resistant populations in the field. After three seasons, the established Best Management Practice (BMP) strategy of two non-glyphosate actions in crop and fallow have been sufficient to significantly reduce the numbers of plants emerging, and remaining at the end of the season compared to the glyphosate only treatment. Additional eradication treatments showed slight improvement on the BMP strategy, however to date these improvements are not significant. The importance of additional eradication tactics are expected to become more noticeable as the seed bank gets driven down in subsequent seasons.