(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Total organic carbon content and isorenieratene concentrations from three holes of ODP Leg 160

Carotenoids were analysed in ca. 1-cm thick subsamples of three laterally time-equivalent sapropels from a west-east transect of the eastern Mediterranean Basin to study euxinic periods during Pliocene sapropel formation. The amount of intact isorenieratene (summed all-trans and cis isomers), ranged from non-detectable at the base and top of a sapropel up to 140 µg/g sediment in the central parts. Isorenieratene accumulation rates at the central and western site are remarkably similar and increase sharply to levels of up to 3.0 mg/m**2/ yr in the central part of the sapropel and then drop to low levels. This pattern indicates an expansion of euxinic conditions reaching into the photic zone, followed by deepening of the chemocline during deposition of this Pliocene sapropel. The sapropel from the easternmost site of the basin, which contains less organic carbon, shows much lower isorenieratene accumulation rates and even absence of isorenieratene in the central part of the sapropel. Ba/Al ratios indicate enhanced palaeoproductivity during sapropel formation, supporting previously proposed models, according to which increased productivity is the driving force for the generation of euxinic conditions.

Corg, CaCO3, bulk densities, accumulation rates and ages of ODP Leg 167 sites and three piston cores, California margin

Sediments from five Leg 167 drill sites and three piston cores were analyzed for Corg and CaCO3. Oxygen isotope stratigraphy on benthic foraminifers was used to assign age models to these sedimentary records. We find that the northern and central California margin is characterized by k.y.-scale events that can be found in both the CaCO3 and Corg time series. We show that the CaCO3 events are caused by changes in CaCO3 production by plankton, not by dissolution. We also show that these CaCO3 events occur in marine isotope Stages (MIS) 2, 3, and 4 during Dansgaard/Oeschger interstadials. They occur most strongly, however, on the MIS 5/4 glaciation and MIS 2/1 deglaciation. We believe that the link between the northeastern Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic is primarily transmitted by the atmosphere, not the ocean. Highest CaCO3 production and burial occurs when the surface ocean is somewhat cooler than the modern ocean, and the surface mixed layer is somewhat more stable.

Age models of ODP sites from the Barents Sea-Svalbard region

Based on a revised chronostratigraphy, and compilation of borehole data from the Barents Sea continental margin, a coherent glaciation model is proposed for the Barents Sea ice sheet over the past 3.5 million years (Ma). Three phases of ice growth are suggested: (1) The initial build-up phase, covering mountainous regions and reaching the coastline/shelf edge in the northern Barents Sea during short-term glacial intensification, is concomitant with the onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (3.6-2.4 Ma). (2) A transitional growth phase (2.4-1.0 Ma), during which the ice sheet expanded towards the southern Barents Sea and reached the northwestern Kara Sea. This is inferred from step-wise decrease of Siberian river-supplied smectite-rich sediments, likely caused by ice sheet blockade and possibly reduced sea ice formation in the Kara Sea as well as glacigenic wedge growth along the northwestern Barents Sea margin hampering entrainment and transport of sea ice sediments to the Arctic-Atlantic gateway. (3) Finally, large-scale glaciation in the Barents Sea occurred after 1 Ma with repeated advances to the shelf edge. The timing is inferred from ice grounding on the Yermak Plateau at about 0.95 Ma, and higher frequencies of gravity-driven mass movements along the western Barents Sea margin associated with expansive glacial growth.

Age models of five ice cores from the Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

For the first time, annually resolved accumulation rates have been determined in central Antarctica by means of counting seasonal signals of ammonium, calcium, and sodium. All records, obtained from three intermediate depth ice cores from Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, show rather constant accumulation rates throughout the last 9 centuries with mean values of 63, 61, and 44 mm H2O yr**-1 and a typical year-to-year variation of about 30%. For the last few decades, no trend was detected accounting for the high natural variability of all records. A significant weak intersite correlation is apparent only between two cores when the high-frequency part with periods less than 30 years is removed. By analyzing the records in the frequency domain, no persistent periods were found. This suggests that the snow accumulation in this area is mainly influenced by local deposition patterns and may be additionally masked by redistribution of snow due to wind. By comparing accumulation rates over the last 2 millennia a distinct change in the layer thickness in one of the three cores was found, which might be attributed either to an area upstream of the drilling site with lower accumulation rates, or to deposition processes influenced by surface undulations. The missing of a clear correlation between the accumulation rate histories at the three locations is also important for the interpretation of small, short time variations of past precipitation records obtained from deep ice cores.

Raster maps for 29 environmental variables in three geographical regions

Aim: Greater understanding of the processes underlying biological invasions is required to determine and predict invasion risk. Two subspecies of olive (Olea europaea subsp. europaea and Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata) have been introduced into Australia from the Mediterranean Basin and southern Africa during the 19th century. Our aim was to determine to what extent the native environmental niches of these two olive subspecies explain the current spatial segregation of the subspecies in their non-native range. We also assessed whether niche shifts had occurred in the non-native range, and examined whether invasion was associated with increased or decreased occupancy of niche space in the non-native range relative to the native range. Location: South-eastern Australia, Mediterranean Basin and southern Africa. Methods: Ecological niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify the similarity of native and non-native realized niches. Niche shifts were characterized by the relative contribution of niche expansion, stability and contraction based on the relative occupancy of environmental space by the native and non-native populations. Results: Native ENMs indicated that the spatial segregation of the two subspecies in their non-native range was partly determined by differences in their native niches. However, we found that environmentally suitable niches were less occupied in the non-native range relative to the native range, indicating that niche shifts had occurred through a contraction of the native niches after invasion, for both subspecies. Main conclusions: The mapping of environmental factors associated with niche expansion, stability or contraction allowed us to identify areas of greater invasion risk. This study provides an example of successful invasions that are associated with niche shifts, illustrating that introduced plant species are sometimes readily able to establish in novel environments. In these situations the assumption of niche stasis during invasion, which is implicitly assumed by ENMs, may be unreasonable.

Age models and sea-surface paleotemperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the eastern equatorial Atlantic

Based on the faunal record of planktonic foraminifers in three long gravity sediment cores from the eastern equatorial Atlantic, the sea-surface temperature history ove the last 750,000 years was studied at a resolution of 3,000 to 10,000 years. Detailed oxygen-isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy helped to identify the following major faunal events: Globorotaloides hexagonus and Globorotalia tumida flexuosa became extinct in the eastern tropical Atlantic at the isotope stage 4/5 boundary, now dated at 68,000 years B.P. The persistent occurrence of the pink variety of Globigerinoides ruber started during the late stage 12 at 410,000 years B.P. CARTUNE-age. This datum may provide an easily detectible faunal stratigraphic marker for the mid-Brunhes Chron. The updated scheme of the Ericson zones helped the recognition of a hiatus at the northwestern slope of the Sierra Leone Basin covering oxygen-isotope stages 10 to 12. Classifying the planktonic foraminifer counts into six faunal assemblages, according to the factor analysis derived model of Pflaumann (1985), the tropical and the tropical-upwelling communities account for 57 % at Site 16415, and 86 % at Site 13519, respectively of the variance of the faunal record. A largely continuous paleotemperature record for both winter and summer seasons was obtained from the top of the Sierra Leone Rise with the winter temperatures ranging between 20 and 25 °C, and the summer ones between 24 and 30 °C. The record of cores from greater water depths is frequently interrupted by samples with no-analogue faunal communities and/or poor preservation. Based on the seasonality signal, during cold periods the termal equator shifted to a geographically mnore asymmetrical northern position. Dissolution altering the faunal communities becomes stronger with greater water depth, the estimated mean minimum loss of specimens increases from 70 % to 80 % between 2,860 and 3,850 water depth although some species will be more susceptible than others. Enhanced dissolution occured during stage 4 but also during cold phases in the warm stage 7 and 9. Correlations between the Foraminiferal Dissolution Index and the estimated sea-surface temperatures are significant. Foraminiferal flux rates, negatively correlated to the flux rates of organic carbon and of diatoms, may be a result of enhanced dissolution during cold stages, destroying still more of the faunal signal than indicated by the calculated minimum loss. The fluctuations of the oxygen-isotope curves and the hibernal sea-surfave temperatures are fairly coherent. During warm oxygen-isotope stages the temperature maxima lag often by 5 to 15 ka behind the respective sotope minima. During cold stages, sea-surface temperature changes are partly out of phase and contain additional fluctuations.

Age models for ODPO Leg 130 sites

The Neogene carbonate stratigraphy of five sites drilled on Ontong Java Plateau during Leg 130 reveals a number of patterns which are unexpected, and which we refer to as loss paradox, equatorial insensitivity, and climate paradox. They denote the following unresolved questions. 1 The loss of carbonate at depth (as derived from differences in accumulation rates) is much greater than suggested by the change in carbonate percentages (calculated under the assumption that carbonate dissolution is the cause of loss). This indicates an important role for redeposition processes, such as winnowing (bottom currents), sifting (resuspension and catabatic flow) and episodic sloughing or solifluction (presumably stimulated by earthquakes). 2 Accumulation rates are not markedly increased at the time a site crosses the equator. There are several possible reasons. Equatorial upwelling may be unimportant in controlling sedimentation rates this far in the western Pacific, or its output may be spread over a considerable distance from the equator. Alternatively, increased supply below the equator is compensated for by increased removal (e.g. from resuspension by bioturbation, combined with catabatic flow). It is conceivable that errors in the timescale could also produce the effect seen. 3 There is an overall tendency for agreement between the stratigraphic patterns of carbonate content and of accumulation rates, but neither pattern is readily explained by reference to changes in climate (represented by benthic delta18O) or in sea-level (as derived from sequence stratigraphy).

Responses of three tropical seagrass species to CO2 enrichment

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to ocean acidification and carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment of seawater. Given the important ecological functions of seagrass meadows, understanding their responses to CO2 will be critical for the management of coastal ecosystems. This study examined the physiological responses of three tropical seagrasses to a range of seawater pCO2 levels in a laboratory. Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were exposed to four different pCO2 treatments (442-1204 µatm) for 2 weeks, approximating the range of end-of-century emission scenarios. Photosynthetic responses were quantified using optode-based oxygen flux measurements. Across all three species, net productivity and energetic surplus (PG:R) significantly increased with a rise in pCO2 (linear models, P < 0.05). Photosynthesis-irradiance curve-derived photosynthetic parameters-maximum photosynthetic rates (P max) and efficiency (alpha) also increased as pCO2 increased (linear models, P < 0.05). The response for productivity measures was similar across species, i.e. similar slopes in linear models. A decrease in compensation light requirement (Ec) with increasing pCO2 was evident in C. serrulata and H. uninervis, but not in T. hemprichii. Despite higher productivity with pCO2 enrichment, leaf growth rates in C. serrulata did not increase, while those in H. uninervis and T. hemprichii significantly increased with increasing pCO2 levels. While seagrasses can be carbon-limited and productivity can respond positively to CO2 enrichment, varying carbon allocation strategies amongst species suggest differential growth response between species. Thus, future increase in seawater CO2 concentration may lead to an overall increase in seagrass biomass and productivity, as well as community changes in seagrass meadows.

Behavioral characteristics of applied general equilibrium models with an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module

This paper explore how simulation results change with different choice of trade specification, and the strength of preference for traded variety by economic agent differs, utilizing two types of three-region, three-sector AGE model that includes the Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012). Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) the Melitz-type specification does not always enhance effectiveness of a certain policy change more than the one obtained with the Krugman-type, especially when economic agents' preference for traded variety is not so strong; (2) there are likely to be points where the volumes of effects obtained with the Melitz-type exceed the ones with the Krugman-type; and (3) the preference of the producers, those who are in the sectors that exhibit increasing returns to scale, for traded variety might be the engine of explosive effects as suggested by Fujita, et al. (2000).

Reduced order models for industrial thermo-fluid problems

A new method is presented to generate reduced order models (ROMs) in Fluid Dynamics problems of industrial interest. The method is based on the expansion of the flow variables in a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) basis, calculated from a limited number of snapshots, which are obtained via Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Then, the POD-mode amplitudes are calculated as minimizers of a properly defined overall residual of the equations and boundary conditions. The method includes various ingredients that are new in this field. The residual can be calculated using only a limited number of points in the flow field, which can be scattered either all over the whole computational domain or over a smaller projection window. The resulting ROM is both computationally efficient(reconstructed flow fields require, in cases that do not present shock waves, less than 1 % of the time needed to compute a full CFD solution) and flexible(the projection window can avoid regions of large localized CFD errors).Also, for problems related with aerodynamics, POD modes are obtained from a set of snapshots calculated by a CFD method based on the compressible Navier Stokes equations and a turbulence model (which further more includes some unphysical stabilizing terms that are included for purely numerical reasons), but projection onto the POD manifold is made using the inviscid Euler equations, which makes the method independent of the CFD scheme. In addition, shock waves are treated specifically in the POD description, to avoid the need of using a too large number of snapshots. Various definitions of the residual are also discussed, along with the number and distribution of snapshots, the number of retained modes, and the effect of CFD errors. The method is checked and discussed on several test problems that describe (i) heat transfer in the recirculation region downstream of a backwards facing step, (ii) the flow past a two-dimensional airfoil in both the subsonic and transonic regimes, and (iii) the flow past a three-dimensional horizontal tail plane. The method is both efficient and numerically robust in the sense that the computational effort is quite small compared to CFD and results are both reasonably accurate and largely insensitive to the definition of the residual, to CFD errors, and to the CFD method itself, which may contain artificial stabilizing terms. Thus, the method is amenable for practical engineering applications. Resumen Se presenta un nuevo método para generar modelos de orden reducido (ROMs) aplicado a problemas fluidodinámicos de interés industrial. El nuevo método se basa en la expansión de las variables fluidas en una base POD, calculada a partir de un cierto número de snapshots, los cuales se han obtenido gracias a simulaciones numéricas (CFD). A continuación, las amplitudes de los modos POD se calculan minimizando un residual global adecuadamente definido que combina las ecuaciones y las condiciones de contorno. El método incluye varios ingredientes que son nuevos en este campo de estudio. El residual puede calcularse utilizando únicamente un número limitado de puntos del campo fluido. Estos puntos puede encontrarse dispersos a lo largo del dominio computacional completo o sobre una ventana de proyección. El modelo ROM obtenido es tanto computacionalmente eficiente (en aquellos casos que no presentan ondas de choque reconstruir los campos fluidos requiere menos del 1% del tiempo necesario para calcular una solución CFD) como flexible (la ventana de proyección puede escogerse de forma que evite contener regiones con errores en la solución CFD localizados y grandes). Además, en problemas aerodinámicos, los modos POD se obtienen de un conjunto de snapshots calculados utilizando un código CFD basado en la versión compresible de las ecuaciones de Navier Stokes y un modelo de turbulencia (el cual puede incluir algunos términos estabilizadores sin sentido físico que se añaden por razones puramente numéricas), aunque la proyección en la variedad POD se hace utilizando las ecuaciones de Euler, lo que hace al método independiente del esquema utilizado en el código CFD. Además, las ondas de choque se tratan específicamente en la descripción POD para evitar la necesidad de utilizar un número demasiado grande de snapshots. Varias definiciones del residual se discuten, así como el número y distribución de los snapshots,el número de modos retenidos y el efecto de los errores debidos al CFD. El método se comprueba y discute para varios problemas de evaluación que describen (i) la transferencia de calor en la región de recirculación aguas abajo de un escalón, (ii) el flujo alrededor de un perfil bidimensional en regímenes subsónico y transónico y (iii) el flujo alrededor de un estabilizador horizontal tridimensional. El método es tanto eficiente como numéricamente robusto en el sentido de que el esfuerzo computacional es muy pequeño comparado con el requerido por el CFD y los resultados son razonablemente precisos y muy insensibles a la definición del residual, los errores debidos al CFD y al método CFD en sí mismo, el cual puede contener términos estabilizadores artificiales. Por lo tanto, el método puede utilizarse en aplicaciones prácticas de ingeniería.

Analysis of Chromatic Aberration Effects in Triple-Junction Solar Cells Using Advanced Distributed Models

The consideration of real operating conditions for the design and optimization of a multijunction solar cell receiver-concentrator assembly is indispensable. Such a requirement involves the need for suitable modeling and simulation tools in order to complement the experimental work and circumvent its well-known burdens and restrictions. Three-dimensional distributed models have been demonstrated in the past to be a powerful choice for the analysis of distributed phenomena in single- and dual-junction solar cells, as well as for the design of strategies to minimize the solar cell losses when operating under high concentrations. In this paper, we present the application of these models for the analysis of triple-junction solar cells under real operating conditions. The impact of different chromatic aberration profiles on the short-circuit current of triple-junction solar cells is analyzed in detail using the developed distributed model. Current spreading conditions the impact of a given chromatic aberration profile on the solar cell I-V curve. The focus is put on determining the role of current spreading in the connection between photocurrent profile, subcell voltage and current, and semiconductor layers sheet resistance.

Computerized Three-Dimmensional Craniofacial Reconstruction from Skulls Based on Landmarks.

Human identification from a skull is a critical process in legal and forensic medicine, specially when no other means are available. Traditional clay-based methods attempt to generate the human face, in order to identify the corresponding person. However, these reconstructions lack of objectivity and consistence, since they depend on the practitioner. Current computerized techniques are based on facial models, which introduce undesired facial features when the final reconstruction is built. This paper presents an objective 3D craniofacial reconstruction technique, implemented in a graphic application, without using any facial template. The only information required by the software tool is the 3D image of the target skull and three parameters: age, gender and Body Mass Index (BMI) of the individual. Complexity is minimized, since the application database only consists of the anthropological information provided by soft tissue depth values in a set of points of the skull.

Reduced order modeling of three dimensional external aerodynamic flows

A method is presented to construct computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) of three-dimensional aerodynamic flows around commercial aircraft components. The method is based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of a set of steady snapshots, which are calculated using an industrial solver based on some Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The POD-mode amplitudes are calculated by minimizing a residual defined from the Euler equations, even though the snapshots themselves are calculated from viscous equations. This makes the ROM independent of the peculiarities of the solver used to calculate the snapshots. Also, both the POD modes and the residual are calculated using points in the computational mesh that are concentrated in a close vicinity of the aircraft, which constitute a much smaller number than the total number of mesh points. Despite these simplifications, the method provides quite good approximations of the flow variables distributions in the whole computational domain, including the boundary layer attached to the aircraft surface and the wake. Thus, the method is both robust and computationally efficient, which is checked considering the aerodynamic flow around a horizontal tail plane, in the transonic range 0.4?Mach number?0.8, ?3°?angle of attack?3°.

Edge Detection by Adaptive Splitting II. The Three-Dimensional Case

In Llanas and Lantarón, J. Sci. Comput. 46, 485–518 (2011) we proposed an algorithm (EDAS-d) to approximate the jump discontinuity set of functions defined on subsets of ℝ d . This procedure is based on adaptive splitting of the domain of the function guided by the value of an average integral. The above study was limited to the 1D and 2D versions of the algorithm. In this paper we address the three-dimensional problem. We prove an integral inequality (in the case d=3) which constitutes the basis of EDAS-3. We have performed detailed computational experiments demonstrating effective edge detection in 3D function models with different interface topologies. EDAS-1 and EDAS-2 appealing properties are extensible to the 3D case