The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Technological change and the wealth of nations

We discuss a unified theory of directed technological change and technologyadoption that can shed light on the causes of persistent productivity differencesacross countries. In our model, new technologies are designed in advanced countries and diffuse endogenously to less developed countries. Our framework is richenough to highlight three broad reasons for productivity differences: inappropriatetechnologies, policy-induced barriers to technology adoption, and within-countrymisallocations across sectors due to policy distortions. We also discuss the effectsof two aspects of globalization, trade in goods and migration, on the wealth ofnations through their impact on the direction of technical progress. By doing so,we illustrate some of the equalizing and unequalizing forces of globalization.

Characterization of instrumental and sensory quality of papaya ‘Solo' and 'Local' produced in Santiago - Cape Verde and critical analysis on the importation of papaya

O estudo teve por objectivo fazer a caracterização dos atributos de qualidade de duas variedades (Solo e Local) de papaia produzida em Santiago, Cabo Verde, e definir os atributos que os distribuidores procuram. Foram realizadas avaliações físico-químicas, sensorial e um estudo de mercado. Os parâmetros avaliados foram o peso, cor interior e exterior, textura, espessura da polpa, pH, acidez titulável, SST, fez-se avaliação sensorial a aplicação de um questionário aos importadores de papaia. Os parâmetros SST, Acidez, pH e peso variam significativamente com as variedades, sendo as papaias da variedade Local mais pesadas. A textura varia em função dos graus de maturação, a firmeza apresenta uma diminuição ao longo do amadurecimento, na deformação percebe-se um decréscimo com avançar da maturação, nos parâmetros de cor interna e externa as diferenças encontram-se na interacção entre Variedade e Estado de maturação. A variedade Solo foi mais valorizada na avaliação sensorial assim como no preço, certificação/selo qualidade e doçura pelos distribuidores.

A model of conglomeration and synergy traps

We present a model of conglomeration motivated by technology synergies and strategic reductions in variable costs in the face of competitive pressures. The resulting firm integration is neither horizontal nor vertical but rather congeneric integration of firms in related industries. We endogenize the industrial conglomeration structure and examine the effects of competition between conglomerates, and between a conglomerate and independent firms. We show that there is an equilibrium synergy trap in which conglomerates are formed to exploit economies of scope, but resulting profits are lower than under the status quo. We also show that strategic firm integration can occur even in the presence of diseconomies of scope. The model helps to explain features of recent mergers and acquisitions experience.

Registries in rheumatological and musculoskeletal conditions. Paediatric Behçet's disease: an international cohort study of 110 patients. One-year follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

Report of the Section of Agencies and Institutions Division of Child Welfare State Department of Social Welfare, 1943

History of child and social welfare in the State of Iowa including legal responsibilities, rules and regulations, inspections and licensing and supervision. it also covers cooperation with state agencies. It also describes in detail the histories, functions and problems of individual welfare homes and schools.

Iowa Efficiency Review Report to Governor Chet Culver and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge, December 18,2009

Public Works is pleased to present the following Iowa Efficiency Review Report to Governor Chet Culver and Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge. This report is the product of a collaboration between our consulting team and very dedicated Iowa state employees who worked with us to share ideas and cost‐saving proposals under very difficult circumstances caused by the national financial crisis that is affecting state budgets throughout the country. For example, during the course of this review, Iowa departments were also asked to develop across‐the‐board cuts to achieve immediate reductions in state spending. It is a credit to Iowa state government that departmental staff continued to work on this Efficiency Review Report despite these challenges of also having to develop across‐the‐board budget cuts to achieve a balanced budget. We hope that these ideas will set the stage for further future budget improvements from achieving efficiencies, eliminating outdated practices, increasing the use of information technology solutions and finding new sources of non‐tax funding. The Efficiency Review Team faced a second challenge. Statewide Efficiency Reviews usually take from nine to 12 months to complete. In Iowa, we worked with dedicated department staff to complete our work in less than 4 months. The Governor challenged all of us to work intensely and to give him our best thinking on efficiency proposals so that he could act as quickly as possible to position state government for success over the next several years.

Iowa Technology Governance Board Annual Report, January 12, 2009

This Technology Governance Board Annual Report provides information on the FY06 – FY10 Information Technology Personnel Spending; FY06 – FY10 Technology Equipment and Services Spending; and FY06 – FY10 Internal IT Expenditures with the Iowa Communications Network and Department of Administrative Services - Information Technology Enterprise. The report also contains a projection of technology cost savings. This report was produced in compliance with Iowa Code §8A.204(3a) and was submitted to the Governor, the Department of Management, and the General Assembly on January 12, 2009.

Iowa Technology Governance Board Annual Report, January 11, 2010

This Technology Governance Board Annual Report provides information on the FY07 – FY11 Information Technology Personnel Spending; FY07 – FY11 Technology Equipment and Services Spending; and FY07 – FY11 Internal IT Expenditures with the Iowa Communications Network and Department of Administrative Services - Information Technology Enterprise. The report also contains a projection of technology cost savings. This report was produced in compliance with Iowa Code §8A.204(3a) and was submitted to the Governor, the Department of Management, and the General Assembly on January 11, 2010.

Iowa Technology Governance Board Annual Report, January 10, 2011

This Technology Governance Board Annual Report provides information on the FY08 – FY12 Information Technology Personnel Spending; FY08 – FY12 Technology Equipment and Services Spending; and FY08 – FY12 Internal IT Expenditures with the Iowa Communications Network and Department of Administrative Services - Information Technology Enterprise. The report also contains a projection of technology cost savings. This report was produced in compliance with Iowa Code §8A.204(3a) and was submitted to the Governor, the Department of Management, and the General Assembly on January 10, 2011.

Root system distribution of sugar cane as related to nitrogen fertilization, evaluated by two methods: monolith and probes

Few studies on sugar cane have evaluated the root system of the crop, in spite of its importance. This is mainly due to the difficulty of evaluation and high variability of results. The objective of this study was to develop an evaluation method of the cane root system by means of probes so as to evaluate the mass, distribution and metabolically active roots related to N fertilization at planting. For this purpose, an experiment was conducted in an Arenic Kandiustults with medium texture in Jaboticabal/SP, in a randomized block design with four replications and four treatments: control (without N) and 40, 80 and 120 kg ha-1 of N applied in the form of urea in the planting furrow of the cane variety SP81 3250. One week before harvest, a urea-15N solution was applied at the cane stalk base to detect active metabolism in the root system. Trenches of 1.5 m length and 0.6 m depth were opened between two sugar cane rows for root sampling by two methods: monoliths (0.3, 0.2 and 0.15 m wide, deep and long respectively) taken from the trench wall and by probe (internal diameter 0.055 m). For each method, 15 samples per plot were collected. The roots were separated from the soil in a sieve (2 mm mesh), oven-dried (at 65 ºC) and the dry matter was measured. Root sampling by probes resulted in root mass that did not differ from the evaluation in monoliths, indicating that this evaluation method may be used for sugar cane root mass, although neither the root distribution in the soil profile nor the rhizome mass were efficiently evaluated, due to the small sample volume. Nitrogen fertilization at planting did not result in a greater root accumulation in the sugar cane plant, but caused changes in the distribution of the root system in the soil. The absence of N fertilization led to a better root distribution in the soil profile, with 50, 34 and 16 % in the 0-0.2, 0.2-0.4 and 0.4-0.6 m layers, respectively; in the fertilized treatments the roots were concentrated in the surface layer, with on average 70, 17 and 13 % for the same layers. The metabolically active roots were concentrated in the center of the cane stool, amounting to 40 % of the total root mass, regardless of N fertilization (application of 120 kg ha-1 N or without N).

Cardiovascular and metabolic responses during isokinetic shoulder rotators strength testing in healthy subjects

Background: Although there have been many studies on isokinetic shoulder exercises in evaluation and rehabilitation programs, the cardiovascular and metabolic responses of those modes of muscle strength exercises have been poorly investigated. Objective: To analyze cardiovascular and metabolic responses during a standardized test used to study the internal (IR) and external (ER) rotators maximal isokinetic strength. Methods: Four days after an incremental exercise test on cycle ergometer, ten healthy subjects performed an isokinetic shoulder strength evaluation with cardiovascular (Heart rate, HR) and metabolic gas exchange (&Vdot;O_{2}) analysis. The IR and ER isokinetic strength, measured in seated position with 45° of shoulder abduction in scapular plane, was evaluated concentrically at 60, 120 and 240°/s and eccentrically at 60°/s, for both shoulder sides. An endurance test with 30 repetitions at 240°/s was performed at the end of each shoulder side testing. Results: There was a significant increase of mean HR with isokinetic exercise (P< 0.05). Increases of HR was 42-71% over the resting values. During endurance testing, increases of HR was 77-105% over the resting values, and corresponded to 85-86% of the maximal HR during incremental test. Increase of &Vdot;O_{2} during isokinetic exercises was from 6-11 ml/min/kg to 20-43 ml/min/kg. Conclusion: This study performed significant cardiovascular and metabolic responses to isokinetic exercise of rotators shoulder muscles. A warm-up should be performed before maximal high-intensity isokinetic shoulder testing. Our results indicated that observation and supervision are important during testing and/or training sessions, especially in subjects with risk for cardiovascular disorders.

Impact de la chirurgie bariatrique sur la santé et la qualité de vie du patient obèse [Impact of bariatric surgery on health and quality life of obese patients]

The important weight loss due to bariatric surgery allows to improve and even correct, a great part of the comorbidities induced by obesity, as well as quality of life, and to reduce the coming out of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in operated patients. The impact of surgical treatment on the patient's health and quality of life also allows to reduce direct and indirect costs of morbid obesity. However, its effects on mortality have not yet been clearly proved. The preoperative evaluation and the long term follow-up by a skilled team are essential to reduce potential complications, especially on the nutritional field and the risks of recovered weight linked to binge eating disorders.

E-learning initiatives in forensic interpretation: report on experiences from current projects and outlook

This paper reports on the purpose, design, methodology and target audience of E-learning courses in forensic interpretation offered by the authors since 2010, including practical experiences made throughout the implementation period of this project. This initiative was motivated by the fact that reporting results of forensic examinations in a logically correct and scientifically rigorous way is a daily challenge for any forensic practitioner. Indeed, interpretation of raw data and communication of findings in both written and oral statements are topics where knowledge and applied skills are needed. Although most forensic scientists hold educational records in traditional sciences, only few actually followed full courses that focussed on interpretation issues. Such courses should include foundational principles and methodology - including elements of forensic statistics - for the evaluation of forensic data in a way that is tailored to meet the needs of the criminal justice system. In order to help bridge this gap, the authors' initiative seeks to offer educational opportunities that allow practitioners to acquire knowledge and competence in the current approaches to the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings. These cover, among other aspects, probabilistic reasoning (including Bayesian networks and other methods of forensic statistics, tools and software), case pre-assessment, skills in the oral and written communication of uncertainty, and the development of independence and self-confidence to solve practical inference problems. E-learning was chosen as a general format because it helps to form a trans-institutional online-community of practitioners from varying forensic disciplines and workfield experience such as reporting officers, (chief) scientists, forensic coordinators, but also lawyers who all can interact directly from their personal workplaces without consideration of distances, travel expenses or time schedules. In the authors' experience, the proposed learning initiative supports participants in developing their expertise and skills in forensic interpretation, but also offers an opportunity for the associated institutions and the forensic community to reinforce the development of a harmonized view with regard to interpretation across forensic disciplines, laboratories and judicial systems.

Forensic science and the paradigm of quality

Due to various contexts and processes, forensic science communities may have different approaches, largely influenced by their criminal justice systems. However, forensic science practices share some common characteristics. One is the assurance of a high (scientific) quality within processes and practices. For most crime laboratory directors and forensic science associations, this issue is conditioned by the triangle of quality, which represents the current paradigm of quality assurance in the field. It consists of the implementation of standardization, certification, accreditation, and an evaluation process. It constitutes a clear and sound way to exchange data between laboratories and enables databasing due to standardized methods ensuring reliable and valid results; but it is also a means of defining minimum requirements for practitioners' skills for specific forensic science activities. The control of each of these aspects offers non-forensic science partners the assurance that the entire process has been mastered and is trustworthy. Most of the standards focus on the analysis stage and do not consider pre- and post-laboratory stages, namely, the work achieved at the investigation scene and the evaluation and interpretation of the results, intended for intelligence beneficiaries or for court. Such localized consideration prevents forensic practitioners from identifying where the problems really lie with regard to criminal justice systems. According to a performance-management approach, scientific quality should not be restricted to standardized procedures and controls in forensic science practice. Ensuring high quality also strongly depends on the way a forensic science culture is assimilated (into specific education training and workplaces) and in the way practitioners understand forensic science as a whole.