The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

Stress, lifestyle and quality of life in midlife and older Australian women : results from the stress and the health of women study

Background Chronic psychological stress may pose a serious threat to health, although the mechanisms are not fully understood. This study examines the impact of stress on modifiable lifestyle factors, depressive symptoms, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and chronic illness in older Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional data were collected from a random sample of 181 older adults aged 60-70 years from rural and urban areas of South-East Queensland, Australia. We used structural equation modelling to examine associations between stress, modifiable lifestyle factors, HRQoL, and chronic illness. Findings Parameter estimates show that older women who reported life stressors where they felt helpless and feared for their life (high magnitude stressors) also reported higher body mass index (p = 0.03) and more chronic illness (p <0.01). In contrast, duration of exposure to life stressors was associated with higher depressive symptom scores (CES-D, p = 0.02) and sleep disturbance scores (p <0.01). Conclusions Our findings support the link between traumatic personal histories (exposure to high magnitude stressors) and unhealthy lifestyle factors. Findings highlight the need for more research on how stress reduction healthy lifestyle and positive coping strategies can be used to reduce the effects of high magnitude stress on health-related quality of life and chronic illness.

Coordinated control of grid connected photovoltaic reactive power and battery energy storage systems to improve the voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) as well as increasing peak load demand has resulted in poor voltage profile for some residential distribution networks. This paper proposes coordinated use of PV and Battery Energy Storage (BES) to address voltage rise and/or dip problems. The reactive capability of PV inverter combined with droop based BES system is evaluated for rural and urban scenarios (having different R/X ratios). Results show that reactive compensation from PV inverters alone is sufficient to maintain acceptable voltage profile in an urban scenario (low resistance feeder), whereas, coordinated PV and BES support is required for the rural scenario (high resistance feeder). Constant as well as variable droop based BES schemes are analyzed. The required BES sizing and associated cost to maintain the acceptable voltage profile under both schemes is presented. Uncertainties in PV generation and load are considered, with probabilistic estimation of PV generation and randomness in load modeled to characterize the effective utilization of BES. Actual PV generation data and distribution system network data is used to verify the efficacy of the proposed method.

The subject and architecture

Invited Presentation on my book Architecture for a Free Subjectivity. In March of 1982, Skyline, the Institute for Architecture and Urban Studies serial, published the landmark interview between Paul Rabinow, an American anthropologist, and Michel Foucault, which would only appear two years later under the title “Space, Knowledge, and Power,” in Rabinow’s edited book The Foucault Reader. Foucault said that in the spatialization of knowledge and power beginning in the 18th century, architecture is not a signifier or metaphor for power, it is rather the “technique for practising social organization.” The role of the IAUS in the architectural dissemination of Foucault’s ideas on the subject and space in the North American academy – such as the concept “heterotopia,” and Foucault’s writing on surveillance and Jeremy Bentham’s Panopticon, subsequently analysed by Georges Teyssot, who was teaching at the Venice School – is well known. Teyssot’s work is part of the historical canalization of Foucauldianism, and French subjectivity more broadly, along its dizzying path, via Italy, to American architecture schools, where it solidified in the 1980s paradigm that would come to be known as American architecture theory. Foucault was already writing on incarceration and prisons, from the 1970s. (In the 1975 lectures he said “architecture was responsible for the invention of madness.”) But this work was not properly incorporated into architectural discussion until the early ’80s. What is not immediately apparent, what this history suggests to me is that subjectivity was not a marginal topic within “theory”, but was perhaps a platform and entry point for architecture theory. One of the ideas that I’m working on is that “theory” can be viewed, historically, as the making of architectural subjectivity, something that can be traced back to the Frankfurt School critique which begins with the modern subject...

Understanding the implications of digital interactions on the design of public urban spaces

This study investigated the impact of digital networked social interactions on the design of public urban spaces. Urban informatics, social media, ubiquitous computing, and mobile technology offer great potential to urban planning, as tools of communication, community engagement, and placemaking. The study considers the function of public spaces as 'third places,' that is, social places that are familiar, comfortable, social and meaningful for everyday life outside the home and work. Libraries were chosen as the study's focus. The study produced findings and insights at the intersection of urban planning (place), cultural geography and urban sociology (people), and information communication technology (technology) – the triad of urban informatics.

Fundamental Tax Legislation [22nd Edition]

This edition includes a revised Year in Review section, which summarises the legislative developments in taxation over the previous 12 months, a listing of the passage of tax-related legislation during the last year and the inclusion of reference statistics (such as CPI quarterly figures and individual tax rates for residents and non-residents). A Tax Rates and Tables section which contains an accessible summary of the main tax rates and tables that students will need to refer to for their tax studies

Socio-demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyle factors, and health as predictors of mental health in midlife and older Australian women: a multilevel investigation

Background Poor mental health is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, yet debate continues about factors most likely to predict poor mental health outcomes. Objective This cohort study examines the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors, menopausal symptoms, and physical health on the mental health of midlife and older Australian women. Methods: Random sampling was used to recruit women aged 40-55, from rural and urban areas of Queensland, Australia. Overall, 340 women completed mailed surveys on socio-demographic characteristics, midlife symptoms (Greene Climacteric Scale©), modifiable lifestyle factors, and mental health (SF-12©) in 2001, 2004 and 2011. Hierarchical repeated-measure models were used to explore the correlates of poor mental health over time. Results The mean age [SD] at baseline was 55 [2.7] years, most were married (73%, n=248) and 18% were pre-menopausal. The model suggested that variance in mental health widened and showed a non-linear increase with age. Decrements in mental health were associated with an increase in midlife symptoms (Greene psychological scale, P <0.01; Greene somatic scale, P <0.05), time (P <0.01), poor physical health (P <0.01) and individual variance (P <0.01). Socio-demographics and lifestyle factors had little influence on mental health over time. Conclusion Findings suggest that while women’s mental health may decline during midlife, the effect is temporary; in older women, physical health and individual factors seem to be increasingly significant. This research highlights the importance of active health promotion as a means of enhancing both physical and mental health in midlife women.

Contemporary public spaces in urban knowledge precincts : observations from Brisbane, Australia

The advanced era of knowledge-based urban development has led to an unprecedented increase in mobility of people and the subsequent growth in the new typology of agglomerated enclaves of knowledge such as urban knowledge precincts. A new role has been assigned to contemporary public spaces of these precincts to attract and retain the mobile knowledge workforce for long by creating a sense of place for them. This paper sheds light over the place making in the globalised knowledge economy world which develops a sense of permanence spatio-temporally to knowledge workers displaying a set of particular characteristics and simultaneously is process-dependent getting developed by the internal and external flows and contributing substantially in the development of the broader context it stands in relation with. The paper highlights the observations from Australia’s new world city Brisbane to outline the application of urban design as a tool to create and sustain this bipartite place making in urban knowledge precincts, which caters diverse range of social, cultural and democratic needs. It seeks to analyse the modified permeable typology of public spaces that makes it more viable and adaptive as per the changing needs of the contemporary globalised or in other words knowledge society. This research has taken an overall process-based approach reflecting how urban design is an assemblage of the encompassing processes that underlay the resultant place making. It explores how the permeable design typology of these contemporary precincts in Brisbane develops a progressive sense of place that makes them stimulating, effervescent and vibrant.

The Politics of Urban Cultural Policy : Global Perspectives

The Politics of Urban Cultural Policy brings together a range of international experts to critically analyze the ways that governmental actors and non-governmental entities attempt to influence the production and implementation of urban policies directed at the arts, culture, and creative activity. Presenting a global set of case studies that span five continents and 22 cities, the essays in this book advance our understanding of how the dynamic interplay between economic and political context, institutional arrangements, and social networks affect urban cultural policy-making and the ways that these policies impact urban development and influence urban governance. The volume comparatively studies urban cultural policy-making in a diverse set of contexts, analyzes the positive and negative outcomes of policy for different constituencies, and identifies the most effective policy directions, emerging political challenges, and most promising opportunities for building effective cultural policy coalitions. The volume provides a comprehensive and in-depth engagement with the political process of urban cultural policy and urban development studies around the world. It will be of interest to students and researchers interested in urban planning, urban studies and cultural studies.

Nano and ultrafine particle number concentrations in different environments : application towards air quality regulations

Particle number concentrations vary significantly with environment and, in this study, we attempt to assess the significance of these differences. Towards this aim, we reviewed 85 papers that have reported particle number concentrations levels at 126 sites covering different environments. We grouped the results into eight categories according to measurement location including: road tunnel, on-road, road-side, street canyon, urban, urban background, rural, and clean background. From these reports, the overall median number concentration for each of the eight site categories was calculated. The eight location categories may be classified into four distinct groups. The mean median particle number locations for these four types were found to be statistically different from each other. Rural and clean background sites had the lowest concentrations of about 3x103 cm-3. Urban and urban background sites showed concentrations that were three times higher (9x103 cm-3). The mean concentration for the street canyon, roadside and on-road measurement sites was 4.6x104 cm-3, while the highest concentrations were observed in the road tunnels (8.6x104 cm-3). This variation is important when assessing human exposure-response for which there is very little data available, making it difficult to develop health guidelines, a basis for national regulations. Our analyses shows that the current levels in environments affected by vehicle emissions are 3 to 28 times higher than in the natural environments. At present, there is no threshold level in response to exposure to ultrafine particles. Therefore, future control and management strategies should target a decrease of these particles in urban environments by more than one order of magnitude to bring them down to the natural background. At present there is a long way to go to achieve this.

What predicts mental health in midlife and older women? Results from the Australian Healthy Aging of Women Study

Objectives: Previous research has linked unhealthy lifestyle with a range of negative health outcomes in women. As women age however, they may have fewer performance expectations, but may view their health more positively. Clearly, the experiences of midlife and older women in relation to health and wellbeing need further exploration. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors associated with poor health-related quality of life in midlife (HRQoL) and older Australian women. Methods: The Australian longitudinal Healthy Aging of Women (HOW) study prospectively examines HRQoL, chronic disease and modifiable lifestyle factors midlife and older women as they age. Random sampling was used to select rural and urban based women from South-East Queensland, Australia. Data were collected from 386 women at three time points over the last decade (2001, 2004 and 2011). Results: The average age of women in this study was 65 years (SD = 2.82). Almost three-quarters (73%, n = 248) of the sample were married or living as though married, nine per cent (n = 30) were separated or divorced and a small proportion were had never married (n = 13). Most (86%, n = 291) of the women sample reported being Australian born, around one quarter (34%, n = 114) had completed additional study since leaving school (university degree or diploma). Over half (55%, n = 186) of participants were retired, one quarter (25%, n = 85) were in paid employment and the remained were unemployed (1%, n = 4), unable to work because of illness (2%, n = 6) or worked within the home (17%, n = 56). Using data collected over time we examined the relationship between a range of modifiable lifestyle factors and mental health using structural equation modelling. The overall model exhibited a good fit with the data. Poor sleep quality was associated with reduced mental health while better mental health was reported in women who exercised regularly and satisfied with their currently weight. As hypothesized, past mental health was a significant mediator of current mental health. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that the mental health of women is complex and needs to be understood not only in terms of current lifestyle but also in relation to previously reported health status.

The Journey of Becoming Involved in Urban Spaces by Children with Diverse Mobility

Participation is a word frequently espoused in the literature of childhood and urban studies. It has also been made sacrosanct through the Convention on the Rights of the Child and other rights-based policy and programming. Despite this importance, what it means and how it is experienced in the everyday lives of children with diverse abilities is not well understood. This chapter provides insight into the everyday experiences of participation by ten children 9-12 years of age, who have diverse personal mobility from various physical conditions that affect muscle and movement differently, including: Muscular Dystrophy, Cerebral Palsy, and Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases. The children participants live in the outer suburbs and inner regions of south-east Queensland, Australia. The chapter discusses a new way of understanding and theorising participation as a journey of becoming involved. This knowledge emerged through the children’s body-space-time routines (body ballets) and their descriptions of inhabiting urban space. This chapter also establishes how body-space-context interplays shape the experiences of becoming and being involved in everyday life, as well as the preconceptions of body embed in space which divide and constrain children and families actualisation of full and genuine participation.

Urban growth in the Kathmandu Valley: The transformation of public space

Traditional towns of the Kathmandu Valley boast a fine provision of public spaces in their neighbourhoods. Historically, a hierarchy of public space has been distributed over the entire town with each neighbourhood centered around more or less spacious public squares. However, rapid growth of these towns over the past decades has resulted in haphazard development of new urban areas with little provision of public space. Recent studies indicate that the loss of public space is a major consequence of the uncontrolled urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its new neighbourhoods. This paper reviews the current urban growth of the Kathmandu Valley and its impact on the development of public space in new neighbourhoods. The preliminary analysis of the case study of three new neighbourhoods shows that the formation and utilization of neighbourhood public space exhibit fundamental differences from those found in the traditional city cores. The following key issues are identified in this paper: a) Governance and regulations have been a challenge to regulate rapid urban growth; b) The current pattern of neighbourhood formation is found to be different from that of traditional neighbourhoods due to the changes with rapid urban development; c) Public spaces have been compromised in both planned and unplanned new neighbourhoods in terms of their quantity and quality; d) The changing provision of public space has contributed to its changing use and meaning; and e) The changing demographic composition, changing society and life style have had direct impact on the declining use of public space. Moreover, the management of public spaces remains a big challenge due to their changing nature and the changing governance. The current transformation public space does not appear to be conducive, and has led to adversely changing social environment of the new neighbourhoods.

Understanding causal relationships between the built and social environment, health and associated behaviours and risk factors

Introduction: Built environment interventions designed to reduce non-communicable diseases and health inequity, complement urban planning agendas focused on creating more ‘liveable’, compact, pedestrian-friendly, less automobile dependent and more socially inclusive cities.However, what constitutes a ‘liveable’ community is not well defined. Moreover, there appears to be a gap between the concept and delivery of ‘liveable’ communities. The recently funded NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) in Healthy Liveable Communities established in early 2014, has defined ‘liveability’ from a social determinants of health perspective. Using purpose-designed multilevel longitudinal data sets, it addresses five themes that address key evidence-base gaps for building healthy and liveable communities. The CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities seeks to generate and exchange new knowledge about: 1) measurement of policy-relevant built environment features associated with leading non-communicable disease risk factors (physical activity, obesity) and health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, diabetes) and mental health; 2) causal relationships and thresholds for built environment interventions using data from longitudinal studies and natural experiments; 3) thresholds for built environment interventions; 4) economic benefits of built environment interventions designed to influence health and wellbeing outcomes; and 5) factors, tools, and interventions that facilitate the translation of research into policy and practice. This evidence is critical to inform future policy and practice in health, land use, and transport planning. Moreover, to ensure policy-relevance and facilitate research translation, the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities builds upon ongoing, and has established new, multi-sector collaborations with national and state policy-makers and practitioners. The symposium will commence with a brief introduction to embed the research within an Australian health and urban planning context, as well as providing an overall outline of the CRE in Healthy Liveable Communities, its structure and team. Next, an overview of the five research themes will be presented. Following these presentations, the Discussant will consider the implications of the research and opportunities for translation and knowledge exchange. Theme 2 will establish whether and to what extent the neighbourhood environment (built and social) is causally related to physical and mental health and associated behaviours and risk factors. In particular, research conducted as part of this theme will use data from large-scale, longitudinal-multilevel studies (HABITAT, RESIDE, AusDiab) to examine relationships that meet causality criteria via statistical methods such as longitudinal mixed-effect and fixed-effect models, multilevel and structural equation models; analyse data on residential preferences to investigate confounding due to neighbourhood self-selection and to use measurement and analysis tools such as propensity score matching and ‘within-person’ change modelling to address confounding; analyse data about individual-level factors that might confound, mediate or modify relationships between the neighbourhood environment and health and well-being (e.g., psychosocial factors, knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, functional status), and; analyse data on both objective neighbourhood characteristics and residents’ perceptions of these objective features to more accurately assess the relative contribution of objective and perceptual factors to outcomes such as health and well-being, physical activity, active transport, obesity, and sedentary behaviour. At the completion of the Theme 2, we will have demonstrated and applied statistical methods appropriate for determining causality and generated evidence about causal relationships between the neighbourhood environment, health, and related outcomes. This will provide planners and policy makers with a more robust (valid and reliable) basis on which to design healthy communities.