The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss

We introduce duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to (current, lagged or expected future) inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Evaluation of a summary score of cognitive performance for use in trials in perioperative and critical care.

Background/Aims: Cognitive dysfunction after medical treatment is increasingly being recognized. Studies on this topic require repeated cognitive testing within a short time. However, with repeated testing, practice effects must be expected. We quantified practice effects in a demographically corrected summary score of a neuropsychological test battery repeatedly administered to healthy elderly volunteers. Methods: The Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) Neuropsychological Assessment Battery (for which a demographically corrected summary score was developed), phonemic fluency tests, and trail-making tests were administered in healthy volunteers aged 65 years or older on days 0, 7, and 90. This battery allows calculation of a demographically adjusted continuous summary score. Results: Significant practice effects were observed in the CERAD total score and in the word list (learning and recall) subtest. Based on these volunteer data, we developed a threshold for diagnosis of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) with the CERAD total score. Conclusion: Practice effects with repeated administration of neuropsychological tests must be accounted for in the interpretation of such tests. Ignoring practice effects may lead to an underestimation of POCD. The usefulness of the proposed demographically adjusted continuous score for cognitive function will have to be tested prospectively in patients.

Multi-agent contracting with countervailing incentives and limited liability

We consider a principal who deals with a privately informed agent protected by limited liability in a correlated information setting. The agent's technology is such that the fixed cost declines with the marginal cost (the type), so that countervailing incentives may arise. We show that, with high liability, the first-best outcome can be effected for any type if (1) the fixed cost is non-concave in type, under the contract that yields the smallest feasible loss to the agent; (2) the fixed cost is not very concave in type, under the contract that yields the maximum sustainable loss to the agent. We further show that, with low liability, the first-best outcome is still implemented for a non-degenerate range of types if the fixed cost is less concave in type than some given threshold, which tightens as the liability reduces. The optimal contract entails pooling otherwise.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

Antidiabetic drugs and kidney disease - Recommendations of the Swiss Society for Endocrinology and Diabetology.

Patients with diabetes are at risk of early renal function decline. Therefore, kidney function needs monitoring at least once per year. Once the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is less than 60 ml/min, the pharmacokinetics of antidiabetic drugs may be altered. Sulfonylurea and glinide therapies are associated with a risk of hypoglycaemia which is increased in the presence of renal impairment. Most sulfonylureas must be discontinued once GFR is <60 ml/min. Some glinides may be continued beyond this threshold, in particular repaglinide, which may be used in dialysis patients. In the absence of comorbidities, metformin can be continued at lower doses until a GFR of 45 ml/min, but must be withdrawn in case of dehydration or during the administration of a nephrotoxic drug including dye for radiological investigations. Glitazones may worsen water and sodium retention in patients with renal impairment. The pharmacokinetics of all DPP-IV inhibitors except linagliptin are altered with impaired renal function. Only sitagliptin, saxagliptin and linagliptin may be used in advanced kidney disease, but experience is as yet very limited. GLP-1 agonists are contraindicated in moderate to advanced kidney disease.

Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increase of pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the assumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to wild pollinators, but we show that their introduction can lead to further decline and finally local extinction of wild bees. The transitions between different outcomes are characterised by threshold behaviour and are potentially difficult to predict and detect in advance. Small changes in economic (input prices) and ecological (wild bees carrying capacity and effect of pesticides on bees) can move the economic-ecological system beyond the extinction threshold. We also show that increasing the pesticide price or decreasing the commercial bee price might lead to reestablishment of wild bees following their local extinction. Thus, we demonstrate the importance of combining ecological modelling with economics to study the provision of ecosystem services and to inform sustainable management of ecosystem service providers.

Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

No interaction between alcohol consumption and HDL-related genes on HDL cholesterol levels.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationships and possible interactions between polymorphisms related to HDL levels and alcohol consumption. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based study including 2863 women and 2546 men aged 35-75 years (CoLaus study). Alcohol intake was assessed by the reported alcohol consumption of the last 7 days. Nineteen candidate genes known to influence HDL levels were studied. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption increased HDL cholesterol levels in both genders. After multivariate adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, smoking, hypolipidaemic drug treatment, physical activity and alcohol consumption, APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms were significantly (10(-5) threshold) related with HDL cholesterol levels, while no genexalcohol intake interaction was found for all SNPs studied. ABCA1 polymorphisms were related to HDL cholesterol levels on bivariate analysis but the relationship was no longer significant after multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Our data confirm the association of alcohol consumption and of APOA5, CETP, LIPC and LPL gene polymorphisms with HDL cholesterol levels. Conversely, no genexalcohol consumption interactions were found, suggesting that the effect of alcohol consumption on HDL cholesterol levels is not mediated via a modulation of HDL related genes.

Design and evaluation of a solid sampler for the monitoring of airborne 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) and its prepolymers in 2-component spray painting

An active, solvent-free solid sampler was developed for the collection of 1,6-hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) aerosol and prepolymers. The sampler was made of a filter impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine contained in a filter holder. Interferences with HDI were observed when a set of cellulose acetate filters and a polystyrene filter holder were used; a glass fiber filter and polypropylene filter cassette gave better results. The applicability of the sampling and analytical procedure was validated with a test chamber, constructed for the dynamic generation of HDI aerosol and prepolymers in commercial two-component spray paints (Desmodur(R) N75) used in car refinishing. The particle size distribution, temporal stability, and spatial uniformity of the simulated aerosol were established in order to test the sample. The monitoring of aerosol concentrations was conducted with the solid sampler paired to the reference impinger technique (impinger flasks contained 10 mL of 0.5 mg/mL 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine in toluene) under a controlled atmosphere in the test chamber. Analyses of derivatized HDI and prepolymers were carried out by using high-performance liquid chromatography and ultraviolet detection. The correlation between the solvent-free and the impinger techniques appeared fairly good (Y = 0.979X - 0.161; R = 0.978), when the tests were conducted in the range of 0.1 to 10 times the threshold limit value (TLV) for HDI monomer and up to 60-mu-g/m3 (3 U.K. TLVs) for total -N = C = O groups.

Determinação das exigências térmicas de Stomoxys calcitrans (L.) (Diptera, Muscidae), em condições de laboratório

The biology immature stage of Stomoxys calcitrans (L.) was studied in the laboratory under four constant temperature. The study was carried out in biological incubators at 20, 25, 30 and 35-C; 65 ñ 10% relative humidity and 14 hours of photophase. The most favorable temperature for developing eggs, larval and pupal was 25-C, while 35-C proved to be harmful for a normal developing of S. calcitrans in larval stage. The incubation periods for egg were 69.90, 42.58, 26.10, 21.78 hours and 2.91, 1.77, 1.08, 0.90 days at 20, 25, 30, 35-C, respectively . The larval stage was 18.40, 11.63, 8.55 days and, the pupal stage, 8.60, 4.54, 3.60 days at 20, 25, 30-C, respectively. Threshold temperatures for males were a little higher than for females, however, this difference was lesser than 1-C. On the other hand, the quantity of energy (GD) for developing females was a little higher than for males. No difference was observed between the two methods used for calculating the above mentioned biological parameters of S. calcitrans.

Decision analysis for the genotype designation in low-template-DNA profiles

What genotype should the scientist specify for conducting a database search to try to find the source of a low-template-DNA (lt-DNA) trace? When the scientist answers this question, he or she makes a decision. Here, we approach this decision problem from a normative point of view by defining a decision-theoretic framework for answering this question for one locus. This framework combines the probability distribution describing the uncertainty over the trace's donor's possible genotypes with a loss function describing the scientist's preferences concerning false exclusions and false inclusions that may result from the database search. According to this approach, the scientist should choose the genotype designation that minimizes the expected loss. To illustrate the results produced by this approach, we apply it to two hypothetical cases: (1) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on a single electropherogram, and (2) the case of observing one peak for allele xi on one replicate, and a pair of peaks for alleles xi and xj, i ≠ j, on a second replicate. Given that the probabilities of allele drop-out are defined as functions of the observed peak heights, the threshold values marking the turning points when the scientist should switch from one designation to another are derived in terms of the observed peak heights. For each case, sensitivity analyses show the impact of the model's parameters on these threshold values. The results support the conclusion that the procedure should not focus on a single threshold value for making this decision for all alleles, all loci and in all laboratories.

Context-dependent interpretation of the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The mutation status of the BRAF and KRAS genes has been proposed as prognostic biomarker in colorectal cancer. Of them, only the BRAF V600E mutation has been validated independently as prognostic for overall survival and survival after relapse, while the prognostic value of KRAS mutation is still unclear. We investigated the prognostic value of BRAF and KRAS mutations in various contexts defined by stratifications of the patient population. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer from the PETACC-3 clinical trial (N = 1,423), by assessing the prognostic value of the BRAF and KRAS mutations in subpopulations defined by all possible combinations of the following clinico-pathological variables: T stage, N stage, tumor site, tumor grade and microsatellite instability status. In each such subpopulation, the prognostic value was assessed by log rank test for three endpoints: overall survival, relapse-free survival, and survival after relapse. The significance level was set to 0.01 for Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, and a second threshold for a trend towards statistical significance was set at 0.05 for unadjusted p-values. The significance of the interactions was tested by Wald test, with significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: In stage II-III colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation was confirmed a marker of poor survival only in subpopulations involving microsatellite stable and left-sided tumors, with higher effects than in the whole population. There was no evidence for prognostic value in microsatellite instable or right-sided tumor groups. We found that BRAF was also prognostic for relapse-free survival in some subpopulations. We found no evidence that KRAS mutations had prognostic value, although a trend was observed in some stratifications. We also show evidence of heterogeneity in survival of patients with BRAF V600E mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The BRAF mutation represents an additional risk factor only in some subpopulations of colorectal cancers, in others having limited prognostic value. However, in the subpopulations where it is prognostic, it represents a marker of much higher risk than previously considered. KRAS mutation status does not seem to represent a strong prognostic variable.

Aseptic meningoencephalitis mimicking transient ischaemic attacks.

PURPOSE: To highlight meningoencephalitis as a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) mimic and suggest clinical clues for differential diagnosis. METHODS: This was an observational study of consecutively admitted patients over a 9.75-year period presenting as TIAs at a stroke unit. RESULTS: A total of 790 patients with TIAs and seven with TIA-like symptoms but a final diagnosis of viral meningoencephalitis were recognised. The most frequent presentations of meningoencephalitis patients were acute sensory hemisyndrome (6) and cognitive deficits (5). Signs of meningeal irritation were minor or absent on presentation. Predominantly lymphocytic pleocytosis, hyperproteinorachia and a normal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)/serum glucose index (in 5 out of 6 documented patients) were present. Meningeal thickening on a brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan was the only abnormal imaging finding. Six patients received initial vascular treatment; one thrombolysed. Finally, six patients were treated with antivirals and/or antibiotics. Although neither bacterial nor viral agents were identified on extensive testing, viral meningoencephalitis was the best explanation for all clinical and laboratory findings. CONCLUSIONS: Aseptic meningoencephalitis should be part of the differential diagnosis in patients presenting as TIA. The threshold for a lumbar puncture in such patients should be set individually and take into account the presence of mild meningeal symptoms, age and other risk factors for vascular disease, the results of brain imaging and the basic diagnostic work-up for a stroke source.

Discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus of the rat.

The aim of the present study was to characterize the discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus (DNLL) of the rat. In the absence of acoustic stimulation, two types of spontaneous discharge patterns were observed: units tended to fire in a bursting or in a nonbursting mode. The distribution of units in the DNLL based on spontaneous firing rate followed a rostrocaudal gradient: units with high spontaneous rates were most commonly located in the rostral part of the DNLL, whereas in the caudal part units had lower spontaneous discharge rates. The most common response pattern of DNLL units to 200 ms binaural noise bursts contained a prominent onset response followed by a lower but steady-state response and an inhibitory response in the early-off period. Thresholds of response to noise bursts were on average higher for DNLL units than for units recorded in the inferior colliculus under the same experimental conditions. The DNLL units were arranged according to a mediolateral sensitivity gradient with the lowest threshold units in the most lateral part of the nucleus. In the rat, as in other mammals, the most common DNLL binaural input type was an excitatory response to contralateral ear stimulation and inhibitory response to ipsilateral ear stimulation (EI type). Pure tone bursts were in general a more effective stimulus compared to noise bursts. Best frequency (BF) was established for 97 DNLL units and plotted according to their spatial location. The DNLL exhibits a loose tonotopic organization, where there is a concentric pattern with high BF units located in the most dorsal and ventral parts of the DNLL and lower BF units in the middle part of the nucleus.

Comparative evaluation of a simple and sensitive assay for detection of orthomyxo and paramyxoviruses

Studies were done to evaluate comparatively the traditional HA assay and a more recently introduced lectin-neuraminidase (LN) methodologyin search of a simple and sensitive assay for virus detection during laboratorial diagnosis. The results proved the value of LN assay as a sensitive methodologyfor detection of virus particles, presenting results at least equal to those obtained by HA (hemagglutination) assay, with significant values of accumulated frequencies for LN/HA factors (ratios between LN and HA titers) higher than two. The accumulated values of frequencies for LN/HA factors as high as four were very significant, 72.7 (per cent) for influenzavirus and 60.7 (per cent) for Newcastle disease virus (NDV), moreover accumulated frequencies for LN/HA factors even as high as 32 were due to influenzavirus (45.4 per cent) and NDV (7.2 per cent) samples. After the storage period, most of those concentraded samples that even did not present HA titers could be detected through LN assay, demonstrating a lower threshold for virus detection.