A Comparative Chronology of the History of Eastern Europe and the Climate

Two main areas were examined in this project: * The detailed climatic history of the second part of the Holocene (approximately the last 5500 calendar years) for the Zapadnodvinskaya lowland, making it possible to reconstruct general climatic changes in eastern Europe (taking other palynological, dendrochronological, historical and instrumental data into account). * The most important historical events for the period of the 9th-17th centuries that had an impact on Russian history. The comparative chronology of the main climatic changes and events of Russian social history showed that as local climatic conditions became worse (i.e. falling average annual temperature or precipitation rate) the density of significant events in society rose. This suggests that climatic deterioration is both a stimulus and an outstanding factor in social development.

Changes in Psychological Characteristics of Working Adults in Different Stages of Economic Transition in Lithuania

Global economic changes have psychological consequences and Mr. Lepeska set out to assess these changes in working adults in Lithuania between 1993 and 1997. He surveyed two groups of working adults, with a total of 200 people, randomly selected and representing different organisations and professions. In both groups around 30% of participants were managers, with the remainder working in non-managerial positions. The participants were surveyed twice, once in 1993 and the second time in 1997,using various psychodiagnostic tools to measure their psychological characteristics. The results showed that strategies for coping with stress have changed, with problem solving strategies being used more often, and avoidance behaviour or seeking social support less. Men tended to have rejected these strategy more radically than women. Attitudes towards work had become more positive, with managers' attitudes having changed more significantly than those of employees from lower levels of organisations. Younger people were more positive towards work-related changes, while situational anxiety tended to increase with age, although overall it remained low. Mr. Lepeska found that while there were some indications of an increasing individualist in relation to peers, the traditional collective orientation of Lithuanian adults had if anything increased. People have become more accepting of an unequal distribution of power, making it difficult to increase the participation of subordinates in decision making. He also noted a tendency for Lithuanians to see their organisations as traditional families, expecting them to take care of them physically and economically in return for loyalty. The strong feminine orientation with its stress on interpersonal relations and overall quality of life has also strengthened, but the ability of Lithuanians to take initiative and control their environment was relatively low. Mr. Lepeska concludes that organisations should seek to recruit people who are able to adjust more easily to changes and consider measuring dominance, individualism, and attitudes to work-related change and situational anxiety in the process of professional selection. There should also be more emphasis on team building and on training managers to maintain closer relationships with their subordinates so as to increase the latter's participation in decision making. Good interpersonal relations can be a strong work motivator, as may be special attention to the security needs of older employees.

Post-War Writers' Memoirs in Romania and France: A Study of Mentalities

Ms. Net wanted to find out if there was what she terms a "collective identity of the intelligentsia" of Romania and France between 1945 and 1989. She conducted her research on a corpus of memoirs from both cultures, and in the process, uncovered some fundamental differences, which she presented in the form of a 178 page manuscript in English, and also on disc. One of the most basic appears to be that French memorialists rarely deal with social, historical and political changes and events. Ms. Net regards these writers as shutting their eyes to reality, and attempting to preserve the past. They are interested in their personal history, and in the genesis of their own works. According to Ms. Net, this tendency is so marked that she doubts whether 20th century French writers share the dominant mentalities of their times. In her opinion all this points to the fact that the French intelligentsia are "trying hard to preserve their cultural hegemony" a task which she maintains has always been an essential aspect of the identity of the French intellectual. In Romania, of course, the situation was very different. To take an example: many Romanian memoirs speak about the campaigns to improve the lot of women, while at the same time recognising and analysing the way that this was simply a "cover" for promoting the most incompetent people, men and women alike. They also express frustration at the way access to information was blocked due to the media being government controlled. Ms. Net concludes, eventually, that, in general, intellectuals, more than any other group in society, ensure the continuity of the dominant mentalities in a given cultural space. Consequently, she feels, we must revise the idea - or myth as she calls it - that intellectuals represent the avant-garde in a given society. Specifically, she concludes that petty bourgeois, patriarchal and elitist mentalities are still prevalent in France. The truth is, she reflects, that intellectuals are always true to their nature, no mater when and where they are living.

Ontogenesis of mRNA levels and binding sites of hepatic alpha-adrenoceptors in young cattle

Catecholamines affect hepatic glucose production through (alpha- and beta2-) adrenoceptors (AR). We studied mRNA abundance and binding of hepatic alpha-AR in pre-term (P0) calves and in full-term calves at day 0 (F0), day 5 (F5) and day 159 (F159) to test the hypothesis that gene expression and numbers of hepatic alpha-AR in calves are influenced by age and associated with beta2-AR and selected traits of glucose metabolism. mRNA levels of alpha1- and alpha2-AR were measured by real time RT-PCR. alpha1- and alpha2-AR numbers (maximal binding, Bmax) were determined by saturation binding of (3H)-prazosin and (3H)-RX821002, respectively. alpha1- and alpha2-AR subtypes were evaluated by competitive binding. alpha1A-AR mRNA levels were lower in P0 than in F0, F5 and F159 and alpha(2AD)-AR mRNA levels were lower in F159 than in P0, F0 and F5, while alpha2C-AR mRNA levels increased from P0 and F0 to F5 and F159. Bmax of alpha1-AR increased from P0 to F5, then decreased in F159. Bmax of alpha2-AR decreased from F0 to F159. Bmax of alpha1-AR was positively associated with mRNA levels of alpha1A-AR (r = 0.7), Bmax of beta2-AR (r = 0.5) and negatively with hepatic glycogen content (r = -0.6). Bmax of alpha2-AR was negatively associated with Bmax of beta2-AR (r = -0.4). In conclusion, mRNA levels and binding sites of alpha1- and alpha2-AR in calves exhibited developmental changes and were negatively associated with hepatic glycogen content.

The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main characteristics and issues

The Mediterranean Region has many morphologic, geographical, historical, and societal characteristics, which make its climate scientifically interesting. The concept of Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild wet winters and warm to hot, dry summers and occur on the west side of continents between about 30° and 40° latitude. However, the presence of a relatively large mass of water is unique to the actual Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal and semi-enclosed sea; it is located on the western side of a large continental area and is surrounded by Europe to the North, Africa to the South, and Asia to the East. The chapter discusses that the climate of the Mediterranean region is to a large extent forced by planetary scale patterns. The time and space behavior of the regional features associated with such large-scale forcing is complex. Orography and land–sea distribution play an important role establishing the climate at basin scale and its teleconnections with global patterns. Different levels of services of readiness to emergencies, technological, and economic resources are likely to result in very different adaptation capabilities to environmental changes and new problems. The different economic situations and demographic trends are likely to produce contrasts and conflicts in a condition of limited available resources and environmental stress.

Analyzing, Capturing and Taming Software Change

Software systems need to continuously change to remain useful. Change appears in several forms and needs to be accommodated at different levels. We propose ChangeBoxes as a mechanism to encapsulate, manage, analyze and exploit changes to software systems. Our thesis is that only by making change explicit and manipulable can we enable the software developer to manage software change more effectively than is currently possible. Furthermore we argue that we need new insights into assessing the impact of changes and we need to provide new tools and techniques to manage them. We report on the results of some initial prototyping efforts, and we outline a series of research activities that we have started to explore the potential of ChangeBoxes.

Effects of low abdominal blood flow and dobutamine on blood flow distribution and on the hepatic arterial buffer response in anaesthetized pigs

Low cardiac output impairs the hepatic arterial buffer response (HABR). Whether this is due to low abdominal blood flow per se is not known. Dobutamine is commonly used to increase cardiac output, and it may further modify hepatosplanchnic and renal vasoregulation. We assessed the effects of isolated abdominal aortic blood flow changes and dobutamine on hepatosplanchnic and renal blood flow. Twenty-five anesthetized pigs with an abdominal aorto-aortic shunt were randomized to 2 control groups [zero (n = 6) and minimal (n = 6) shunt flow], and 2 groups with 50% reduction of abdominal blood flow and either subsequent increased abdominal blood flow by shunt reduction (n = 6) or dobutamine infusion at 5 and 10 microg kg(-1) min(-1) with constant shunt flow (n = 7). Regional (ultrasound) and local (laser Doppler) intra-abdominal blood flows were measured. The HABR was assessed during acute portal vein occlusion. Sustained low abdominal blood flow, by means of shunt activation, decreased liver, gut, and kidney blood flow similarly and reduced local microcirculatory blood flow in the jejunum. Shunt flow reduction partially restored regional blood flows but not jejunal microcirculatory blood flow. Low-but not high-dose dobutamine increased gut and celiac trunk flow whereas hepatic artery and renal blood flows remained unchanged. Neither intervention altered local blood flows. The HABR was not abolished during sustained low abdominal blood flow despite substantially reduced hepatic arterial blood flow and was not modified by dobutamine. Low-but not high-dose dobutamine redistributes blood flow toward the gut and celiac trunk. The jejunal microcirculatory flow, once impaired, is difficult to restore.

The influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on survival and local recurrence after colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Past studies have identified surgeon- and institution- related characteristics as prognostic factors in colorectal cancer surgery. The present work assesses the influence of the surgeon's and the hospital's caseload on long-term results of colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: The data on 2706 patients from 2, randomized, colorectal cancer trials (Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research [SAKK] 40/81, SAKK 40/87) investigating adjuvant intraportal and systemic chemotherapy and 1 concurrent registration study (SAKK 40/88) were reviewed. A first analysis included 1809 eligible, nonmetastatic patients from all 3 studies. A subsequent subgroup analysis included 915 eligible patients from both randomized trials. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local recurrence (LR) were analyzed in multivariate models taking into account the possible effect of clustering. The main potential covariates were surgeon's annual caseload (>5 operations/year vs < or =5 operations/year), hospital's annual caseload (>26 operations/year vs < or =26 operations/year), tumor site, T stage, and nodal status. RESULTS: Primary analysis of all 3 studies combined found a high surgeon's caseload to be positively associated with OS (P = .025) and marginally with DFS (P = .058). Separate analysis for each trial, however, showed that a high surgeon's caseload was beneficial for outcome in both randomized trials but not in the registration study. A subgroup analysis of 915 patients with 376 rectal and 539 colonic primaries from both randomized trials, therefore, was performed. Neither age, gender, year of operation, adjuvant chemotherapy (intraportal vs systemic vs operation alone), hospital academic status (university vs non-university), training status of the surgeon (certified surgeon vs surgeon-in-training), nor inclusion in 1 of the 2 randomized trials (SAKK 40/81 vs SAKK 40/87) was a significant predictor of outcome. However, both high surgeon's and high hospital's annual caseloads were independent, beneficial prognostic factors for OS (P = .0003, P = .044) and DFS (P = .0008, P = .020), and marginally significant factors for LR (P = .057, P = .055). CONCLUSIONS: High surgeon's and hospital's annual caseloads are strong, independent prognostic factors for extending overall and disease-free survival and reducing the rate of local recurrence in 2 randomized colorectal cancer trials.

Influence of diurnal hyperosmotic loading on the metabolism and matrix gene expression of a whole-organ intervertebral disc model

It is generally agreed that the mechanical environment of intervertebral disc cells plays an important role in maintaining a balanced matrix metabolism. The precise mechanism by which the signals are transduced into the cells is poorly understood. Osmotic changes in the extracellular matrix (ECM) are thought to be involved. Current in-vitro studies on this topic are mostly short-term and show conflicting data on the reaction of disc cells subjected to osmotic changes which is partially due to the heterogenous and often substantially-reduced culture systems. The aim of the study was therefore to investigate the effects of cyclic osmotic loading for 4 weeks on metabolism and matrix gene expression in a full-organ intervertebral disc culture system. Intervertebral disc/endplate units were isolated from New Zealand White Rabbits and cultured either in iso-osmotic media (335 mosmol/kg) or were diurnally exposed for 8 hours to hyper-osmotic conditions (485 mosmol/kg). Cell viability, metabolic activity, matrix composition and matrix gene expression profile (collagen types I/II and aggrecan) were monitored using Live/Dead cell viability assay, tetrazolium reduction test (WST 8), proteoglycan and DNA quantification assays and quantitative PCR. The results show that diurnal osmotic stimulation did not have significant effects on proteoglycan content, cellularity and disc cell viability after 28 days in culture. However, hyperosmolarity caused increased cell death in the early culture phase and counteracted up-regulation of type I collagen gene expression in nucleus and annulus cells. Moreover, the initially decreased cellular dehydrogenase activity recovered with osmotic stimulation after 4 weeks and aggrecan gene down-regulation was delayed, although the latter was not significant according to our statistical criteria. In contrast, collagen type II did not respond to the osmotic changes and was down-regulated in both groups. In conclusion, diurnal hyper-osmotic stimulation of a whole-organ disc/endplate culture partially inhibits a matrix gene expression profile as encountered in degenerative disc disease and counteracts cellular metabolic hypo-activity.

Angiopoietin-2 deficiency decelerates age-dependent vascular changes in the mouse retina

Retinae of aged humans show signs of vascular regression. Vascular regression involves a mismatch between Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression. We used heterozygous Ang-2 deficient (Ang2LacZ) mice to evaluate murine retinal vascular changes and gene expression of growth factors. Vascular changes were assessed by quantitative retinal morphometry and gene expression levels of growth factors were measured by quantitative PCR. The numbers of endothelial cells and pericytes did not change in the Ang2LacZ retinae with age, whereas they decreased throughout the age spectrum studied in the wild type retinae. Moreover, vascular regression significantly decelerated in the heterozygous Ang2LacZ retinae (200% to 1 month), while the formation of acellular capillaries was significantly increased at 13 months in the wild type retinae (340% to 1 month). Gene expression analysis revealed that VEGF, Ang-1, PDGF-B and Ang2 mRNA levels were decreased in the wild type retinae at 9 month of age. However, the decrease of Ang-2 was smaller compared with other genes. While VEGF levels dropped in wild type mice up to 60% compared to 1 month, VEGF increased in heterozygous Ang-2 deficient retinae at an age of 9 months (141% to 1 month). Similarly, Ang-1 levels decreased in wild type mice (45% to 1 month), but remained stable in Ang2LacZ mice. These data suggest that Ang-2 gene dose reduction decelerates vasoregression in the retina with age. This effect links to higher levels of survival factors such as VEGF and Ang-1, suggesting that the ratio of these factors is critical for capillary cell survival.

Transient raise of endothelin-1 plasma level and reduction of ocular blood flow in a patient with optic neuritis

PURPOSE: To analyze how far an ischemic component might have been involved in optic neuritis. METHODS: Case report: a 32-year-old man with symptoms characteristic for optic neuritis underwent extensive clinical, laboratory/serological and vascular examination for systemic associations and vascular involvement. RESULTS: The patient was found to have a temporary ocular blood flow dysregulation and increased plasma endothelin-1 levels which decreased after the acute phase of the optic nerve. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there might be an ischemic component in this patient with optic neuritis and hypothesize that this ischemic component is at least in part due to a temporarily increased endothelin-1 level.

Acute coronary syndromes: management and secondary prevention

Acute coronary syndromes represent a broad spectrum of ischemic myocardial events including unstable angina, non-ST elevation myocardial infarction and acute ST elevation myocardial infarction, which are associated with high morbidity and mortality. They constitute the most frequent cause of hospital admission related to cardiac disease. Early diagnosis and risk stratification are essential for initiation of optimal medical and invasive management. Therapeutic measures comprise aggressive antiplatelet, antithrombotic, and anti-ischemic agents. In addition, patients with high-risk features, notably positive troponin, ST segment changes and diabetes, benefit from an early invasive as compared to a conservative strategy. Importantly, lifestyle interventions, modification of the risk factor profile, and long-term medical treatment are of pivotal importance in reducing the long-term risk of recurrence.

Measurement of nitric oxide and brain tissue oxygen tension in patients after severe subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE: Nitric oxide (NO), one of the most powerful endogenous vasodilators, is thought to play a major role in the development of delayed vasospasm in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). However, the role of the production of cerebral NO in patients with SAH is not known. In other SAH studies, NO metabolites such as nitrite and nitrate have been demonstrated to be decreased in cerebrospinal fluid and in plasma. METHODS: In this study, a microdialysis probe was used, along with a multiparameter sensor, to measure NO metabolites, brain tissue oxygen tension, brain tissue carbon dioxide tension, and pH in the cortex of patients with severe SAH who were at risk for developing secondary brain damage and vasospasm. NO metabolites, glucose, and lactate were analyzed in the dialysates to determine the time course of NO metabolite changes and to test the interrelationship between the analytes and clinical variables. RESULTS: Brain tissue oxygen tension was strongly correlated to dialysate nitrate and nitrite (r2 = 0.326; P < 0.001); however, no correlation was noted between brain tissue oxygen tension and NO metabolites in cerebrospinal fluid (r2 = 0.018; P = 0.734). No significant correlation between NO production, brain tissue carbon dioxide tension, and dialysate glucose and lactate was observed. CONCLUSION: Cerebral ischemia and compromised substrate delivery are often responsible for high morbidity rates and poor outcomes after SAH. The relationship between brain tissue oxygen and cerebral NO metabolites that we demonstrate suggests that substrate delivery and NO are linked in the pathophysiology of vasospasm after SAH.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Perceptions of water conditions and management in the Sonora River Basin, Sonora, Mexico

The effects of climate change are expected to be very severe in arid regions. The Sonora River Basin, in the northwestern state of Sonora, Mexico, is likely to be severely affected. Some of the anticipated effects include precipitation variability, intense storm events, higher overall temperatures, and less available water. In addition, population in Sonora, specifically the capital city of Hermosillo, is increasing at a 1.5% rate and current populations are near 700,000. With the reduction in water availability and an increase in population, Sonora, Mexico is expected to experience severe water resource issues in the near future. In anticipation of these changes, research is being conducted in an attempt to improve water management in the Sonora River Basin, located in the northwestern part of Sonora. This research involves participatory modeling techniques designed to increase water manager awareness of hydrological models and their use as integrative tools for water resource management. This study was conducted as preliminary research for the participatory modeling grant in order to gather useful information on the population being studied. This thesis presents research from thirty-four in-depth interviews with water managers, citizens, and agricultural producers in Sonora, Mexico. Data was collected on perceptions of water quantity and quality in the basin, thoughts on current water management practices, perceptions of climate change and its management, experience with, knowledge of, and trust in hydrological models as water management tools. Results showed that the majority of interviewees thought there was not enough water to satisfy their daily needs. Most respondents also agreed that the water available was of good quality, but that current management of water resources was ineffective. Nearly all interviewees were aware of climate change and thought it to be anthropogenic. May reported experiencing higher temperatures, precipitation changes, and higher water scarcity and attributed those fluctuations to climate change. 65% of interviewees were at least somewhat familiar with hydrological models, though only 28% had ever used them or their output. Even with model usage results being low, 100% of respondents believed hydrological models to be very useful water management tools. Understanding how water, climate change, and hydrological models are perceived by this population of people is essential to improving their water management practices in the face of climate change.