The influence of climate variability on hydrological processes and surface and groundwater hydrochemistry : the tropical upper roper river catchment, Northern Territory, Australia

The Upper Roper River is one of the Australia’s unique tropical rivers which have been largely untouched by development. The Upper Roper River catchment comprises the sub-catchments of the Waterhouse River and Roper Creek, the two tributaries of the Roper River. There is a complex geological setting with different aquifer types. In this seasonal system, close interaction between surface water and groundwater contributes to both streamflow and sustaining ecosystems. The interaction is highly variable between seasons. A conceptual hydrogeological model was developed to investigate the different hydrological processes and geochemical parameters, and determine the baseline characteristics of water resources of this pristine catchment. In the catchment, long term average rainfall is around 850 mm and is summer dominant which significantly influences the total hydrological system. The difference between seasons is pronounced, with high rainfall up to 600 mm/month in the wet season, and negligible rainfall in the dry season. Canopy interception significantly reduces the amount of effective rainfall because of the native vegetation cover in the pristine catchment. Evaporation exceeds rainfall the majority of the year. Due to elevated evaporation and high temperature in the tropics, at least 600 mm of annual rainfall is required to generate potential recharge. Analysis of 120 years of rainfall data trend helped define “wet” and “dry periods”: decreasing trend corresponds to dry periods, and increasing trend to wet periods. The period from 1900 to 1970 was considered as Dry period 1, when there were years with no effective rainfall, and if there was, the intensity of rainfall was around 300 mm. The period 1970 – 1985 was identified as the Wet period 2, when positive effective rainfall occurred in almost every year, and the intensity reached up to 700 mm. The period 1985 – 1995 was the Dry period 2, with similar characteristics as Dry period 1. Finally, the last decade was the Wet period 2, with effective rainfall intensity up to 800 mm. This variability in rainfall over decades increased/decreased recharge and discharge, improving/reducing surface water and groundwater quantity and quality in different wet and dry periods. The stream discharge follows the rainfall pattern. In the wet season, the aquifer is replenished, groundwater levels and groundwater discharge are high, and surface runoff is the dominant component of streamflow. Waterhouse River contributes two thirds and Roper Creek one third to Roper River flow. As the dry season progresses, surface runoff depletes, and groundwater becomes the main component of stream flow. Flow in Waterhouse River is negligible, the Roper Creek dries up, but the Roper River maintains its flow throughout the year. This is due to the groundwater and spring discharge from the highly permeable Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers. Rainfall seasonality and lithology of both the catchment and aquifers are shown to influence water chemistry. In the wet season, dilution of water bodies by rainwater is the main process. In the dry season, when groundwater provides baseflow to the streams, their chemical composition reflects lithology of the aquifers, in particular the karstic areas. Water chemistry distinguishes four types of aquifer materials described as alluvium, sandstone, limestone and tufa. Surface water in the headwaters of the Waterhouse River, the Roper Creek and their tributaries are freshwater, and reflect the alluvium and sandstone aquifers. At and downstream of the confluence of the Roper River, river water chemistry indicates the influence of rainfall dilution in the wet season, and the signature of the Tindall Limestone and tufa aquifers in the dry. Rainbow Spring on the Waterhouse River and Bitter Spring on the Little Roper River (known as Roper Creek at the headwaters) discharge from the Tindall Limestone. Botanic Walk Spring and Fig Tree Spring discharge into the Roper River from tufa. The source of water was defined based on water chemical composition of the springs, surface and groundwater. The mechanisms controlling surface water chemistry were examined to define the dominance of precipitation, evaporation or rock weathering on the water chemical composition. Simple water balance models for the catchment have been developed. The important aspects to be considered in water resource planning of this total system are the naturally high salinity in the region, especially the downstream sections, and how unpredictable climate variation may impact on the natural seasonal variability of water volumes and surface-subsurface interaction.

Motorcycle protective clothing : protection from injury or just the weather?

Background Apart from helmets, little is known about the effectiveness of motorcycle protective clothing in reducing injuries in crashes. The study aimed to quantify the association between usage of motorcycle clothing and injury in crashes. Methods and findings Cross-sectional analytic study. Crashed motorcyclists (n = 212, 71% of identified eligible cases) were recruited through hospitals and motorcycle repair services. Data was obtained through structured face-to-face interviews. The main outcome was hospitalization and motorcycle crash-related injury. Poisson regression was used to estimate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals for injury adjusting for potential confounders. Results Motorcyclists were significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital if they crashed wearing motorcycle jackets (RR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.69–0.91), pants (RR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.25–0.94), or gloves (RR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.26–0.66). When garments included fitted body armour there was a significantly reduced risk of injury to the upper body (RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66–0.89), hands and wrists (RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.38–0.81), legs (RR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.40–0.90), feet and ankles (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.35–0.83). Non-motorcycle boots were also associated with a reduced risk of injury compared to shoes or joggers (RR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28–0.75). No association between use of body armour and risk of fracture injuries was detected. A substantial proportion of motorcycle designed gloves (25.7%), jackets (29.7%) and pants (28.1%) were assessed to have failed due to material damage in the crash. Conclusions Motorcycle protective clothing is associated with reduced risk and severity of crash related injury and hospitalization, particularly when fitted with body armour. The proportion of clothing items that failed under crash conditions indicates a need for improved quality control. While mandating usage of protective clothing is not recommended, consideration could be given to providing incentives for usage of protective clothing, such as tax exemptions for safety gear, health insurance premium reductions and rebates.

Data modelling in the beginning school years

This paper argues for a renewed focus on statistical reasoning in the beginning school years, with opportunities for children to engage in data modelling. Some of the core components of data modelling are addressed. A selection of results from the first data modelling activity implemented during the second year (2010; second grade) of a current longitudinal study are reported. Data modelling involves investigations of meaningful phenomena, deciding what is worthy of attention (identifying complex attributes), and then progressing to organising, structuring, visualising, and representing data. Reported here are children's abilities to identify diverse and complex attributes, sort and classify data in different ways, and create and interpret models to represent their data.

Patterns-based evaluation of open source BPM systems: The cases of jBPM, OpenWFE, and Enhydra Shark

In keeping with the proliferation of free software development initiatives and the increased interest in the business process management domain, many open source workflow and business process management systems have appeared during the last few years and are now under active development. This upsurge gives rise to two important questions: What are the capabilities of these systems? and How do they compare to each other and to their closed source counterparts? In other words: What is the state-of-the-art in the area?. To gain an insight into these questions, we have conducted an in-depth analysis of three of the major open source workflow management systems – jBPM, OpenWFE, and Enhydra Shark, the results of which are reported here. This analysis is based on the workflow patterns framework and provides a continuation of the series of evaluations performed using the same framework on closed source systems, business process modelling languages, and web-service composition standards. The results from evaluations of the three open source systems are compared with each other and also with the results from evaluations of three representative closed source systems: Staffware, WebSphere MQ, and Oracle BPEL PM. The overall conclusion is that open source systems are targeted more toward developers rather than business analysts. They generally provide less support for the patterns than closed source systems, particularly with respect to the resource perspective, i.e. the various ways in which work is distributed amongst business users and managed through to completion.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Processes: Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business Processes [CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Volume 861]

Nowadays, Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) and, more generally, Process Management Systems (PMPs) are process-aware Information Systems (PAISs), are widely used to support many human organizational activities, ranging from well-understood, relatively stable and structures processes (supply chain management, postal delivery tracking, etc.) to processes that are more complicated, less structured and may exhibit a high degree of variation (health-care, emergency management, etc.). Every aspect of a business process involves a certain amount of knowledge which may be complex depending on the domain of interest. The adequate representation of this knowledge is determined by the modeling language used. Some processes behave in a way that is well understood, predictable and repeatable: the tasks are clearly delineated and the control flow is straightforward. Recent discussions, however, illustrate the increasing demand for solutions for knowledge-intensive processes, where these characteristics are less applicable. The actors involved in the conduct of a knowledge-intensive process have to deal with a high degree of uncertainty. Tasks may be hard to perform and the order in which they need to be performed may be highly variable. Modeling knowledge-intensive processes can be complex as it may be hard to capture at design-time what knowledge is available at run-time. In realistic environments, for example, actors lack important knowledge at execution time or this knowledge can become obsolete as the process progresses. Even if each actor (at some point) has perfect knowledge of the world, it may not be certain of its beliefs at later points in time, since tasks by other actors may change the world without those changes being perceived. Typically, a knowledge-intensive process cannot be adequately modeled by classical, state of the art process/workflow modeling approaches. In some respect there is a lack of maturity when it comes to capturing the semantic aspects involved, both in terms of reasoning about them. The main focus of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business processes (KiBP 2012) was investigating how techniques from different fields, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Knowledge Representation (KR), Business Process Management (BPM), Service Oriented Computing (SOC), etc., can be combined with the aim of improving the modeling and the enactment phases of a knowledge-intensive process. The 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business process (KiBP 2012) was held as part of the program of the 2012 Knowledge Representation & Reasoning International Conference (KR 2012) in Rome, Italy, in June 2012. The workshop was hosted by the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale Antonio Ruberti of Sapienza Universita di Roma, with financial support of the University, through grant 2010-C26A107CN9 TESTMED, and the EU Commission through the projects FP7-25888 Greener Buildings and FP7-257899 Smart Vortex. This volume contains the 5 papers accepted and presented at the workshop. Each paper was reviewed by three members of the internationally renowned Program Committee. In addition, a further paper was invted for inclusion in the workshop proceedings and for presentation at the workshop. There were two keynote talks, one by Marlon Dumas (Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Estonia) on "Integrated Data and Process Management: Finally?" and the other by Yves Lesperance (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, York University, Canada) on "A Logic-Based Approach to Business Processes Customization" completed the scientific program. We would like to thank all the Program Committee members for the valuable work in selecting the papers, Andrea Marrella for his valuable work as publication and publicity chair of the workshop, and Carola Aiello and the consulting agency Consulta Umbria for the organization of this successful event.

Business planning, idea change, flexibility and performance: the best of both worlds?

The relationships between business planning and performance have divided the entrepreneurship research community for decades (Brinckmann et al, 2010). One side of this debate is the assumption that business plans may lock the firm in a specific direction early on, impede the firm to adapt to the changing market conditions (Dencker et al., 2009) and eventually, cause escalation of commitments by introducing rigidity (Vesper, 1993). Conversely, feedback received from the production and presentation of business plans may also lead the firm to take corrective actions. However, the mechanisms underlying the relationships between changes in business ideas, business plans and the performance of nascent firms are still largely unknown. While too many business idea changes may confuse stakeholders, exhaust the firm’s resources and hinder the undergoing legitimization process, some flexibility during the early stages of the venture may be beneficial to cope with the uncertainties surrounding new venture creation (Knight, 1921; March, 1982; Stinchcombe, 1965; Weick, 1979). Previous research has emphasized adaptability and flexibility as key success factors through effectual logic and interaction with the market (Sarasvathy, 2001; 2007) or improvisation and trial-and-error (Miner et al, 2001). However, those studies did not specifically investigate the role of business planning. Our objective is to reconcile those seemingly opposing views (flexibility versus rigidity) by undertaking a more fine-grained analysis at the relationships between business planning and changes in business ideas on a large longitudinal sample of nascent firms.

The underlying rationale for planning: do nascent and young firms do what they say they do?

Previous studies investigating the relationships between business planning and performance have led to inconclusive results (Brinckmann et al., 2010; Delmar & Shane, 2003; Frese, 2009; Gruber, 2007; Honig & Karlsson, 2004). Institutional theory argues that firms develop business plans as an answer to external and internal pressures to gain legitimization (Delmar & Shane, 2004) and funding from different stakeholders (Karlsson & Honig, 2009). Action theory suggests that planning will pave the new venture creation journey by providing milestones and a program to implement (Frese, 2009). However, studies with an institutional perspective imply that nascent firms are either conforming to or looking for the benefits of these external or internal pressures (Karlsson & Honig, 2009) while action theory assumes that the plans will be implemented (Frese, 2009). This paper attempts to (i) investigate if the intended uses of the business plans provided by nascent and young firms match their actual uses during their venture creation process and (ii) to examine how the types of uses of business plans impact the firms’ outcomes over three years.

The moderating role of learning on competitive advantage : longitudinal evidence from young firms

The question of how young firms reconcile the absence of well-established learning routines arising from the “liabilities of newness” with the “learning advantages of newness” has received scant attention in entrepreneurship. While older firms follow established learning routines and sometimes face problems in overcoming inertia, young firms with lower levels of inertia are better poised to explore, search and test unique avenues for their products and services. The process of learning and capability development as well as establishing uniqueness in their product offerings is an important part not only in the early stages of firm growth, but also in firm survival. Given their inexperience, for young firms, these learning processes are iterative and include contrasting learning loops that sometimes progress and at other times digress from initially perceived unique ideas. Such processes are embedded within capabilities that the firm develops and nurtures. Based on this premise and adopting a capabilities-based view, we examine how strategic networks and environmental knowledge affects uniqueness- mediated performance in young firms. We identify firms with digressive learning strategies based on their self-assessment of learning and compare them with other firms to demonstrate a differential effect on performance.

The effect of injury diagnosis on expected Postconcussion Syndrome (PCS) symptom reporting and illness perception

Objective: To determine if systematic variation of diagnostic terminology (i.e. concussion, minor head injury [MHI], mild traumatic brain injury [mTBI]) following a standardized injury description produced different expected symptoms and illness perceptions. We hypothesized that worse outcomes would be expected of mTBI, compared to other diagnoses, and that MHI would be perceived as worse than concussion. Method:108 volunteers were randomly allocated to conditions in which they read a vignette describing a motor vehicle accident-related mTBI followed by: a diagnosis of mTBI (n=27), MHI (n=24), concussion (n=31); or, no diagnosis (n=26). All groups rated: a) event ‘undesirability’; b) illness perception, and; c) expected Postconcussion Syndrome (PCS) and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptoms six months post injury. Results: On average, more PCS symptomatology was expected following mTBI compared to other diagnoses, but this difference was not statistically significant. There was a statistically significant group effect on undesirability (mTBI>concussion & MHI), PTSD symptomatology (mTBI & no diagnosis>concussion), and negative illness perception (mTBI & no diagnosis>concussion). Conclusion: In general, diagnostic terminology did not affect anticipated PCS symptoms six months post injury, but other outcomes were affected. Given that these diagnostic terms are used interchangeably, this study suggests that changing terminology can influence known contributors to poor mTBI outcome.

Utility of the Mild Brain Injury Atypical Symptoms Scale to detect symptom exaggeration : an analogue simulation study

Brief self-report symptom checklists are often used to screen for postconcussional disorder (PCD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and are highly susceptible to symptom exaggeration. This study examined the utility of the five-item Mild Brain Injury Atypical Symptoms Scale (mBIAS) designed for use with the Neurobehavioral Symptom Inventory (NSI) and the PTSD Checklist–Civilian (PCL–C). Participants were 85 Australian undergraduate students who completed a battery of self-report measures under one of three experimental conditions: control (i.e., honest responding, n = 24), feign PCD (n = 29), and feign PTSD (n = 32). Measures were the mBIAS, NSI, PCL–C, Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory–2, Restructured Form (MMPI–2–RF), and the Structured Inventory of Malingered Symptomatology (SIMS). Participants instructed to feign PTSD and PCD had significantly higher scores on the mBIAS, NSI, PCL–C, and MMPI–2–RF than did controls. Few differences were found between the feign PCD and feign PTSD groups, with the exception of scores on the NSI (feign PCD > feign PTSD) and PCL–C (feign PTSD > feign PCD). Optimal cutoff scores on the mBIAS of ≥8 and ≥6 were found to reflect “probable exaggeration” (sensitivity = .34; specificity = 1.0; positive predictive power, PPP = 1.0; negative predictive power, NPP = .74) and “possible exaggeration” (sensitivity = .72; specificity = .88; PPP = .76; NPP = .85), respectively. Findings provide preliminary support for the use of the mBIAS as a tool to detect symptom exaggeration when administering the NSI and PCL–C.