Ocean heat uptake and its consequences for the magnitude of sea level rise and climate change

Under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean heat uptake moderates the rate of climate change, and thermal expansion makes a substantial contribution to sea level rise. In this paper we quantify the differences in projections among atmosphere-ocean general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in terms of transient climate response, ocean heat uptake efficiency and expansion efficiency of heat. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles have statistically indistinguishable distributions in these parameters. The ocean heat uptake efficiency varies by a factor of two across the models, explaining about 50% of the spread in ocean heat uptake in CMIP5 models with CO2 increasing at 1%/year. It correlates with the ocean global-mean vertical profiles both of temperature and of temperature change, and comparison with observations suggests the models may overestimate ocean heat uptake and underestimate surface warming, because their stratification is too weak. The models agree on the location of maxima of shallow ocean heat uptake (above 700 m) in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic, and on deep ocean heat uptake (below 2000 m) in areas of the Southern Ocean, in some places amounting to 40% of the top-to-bottom integral in the CMIP3 SRES A1B scenario. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat uptake; consequently the eddy-induced thickness diffusivity parameter, which is particularly influential in the Southern Ocean, correlates with the ocean heat uptake efficiency. The thermal expansion produced by ocean heat uptake is 0.12 m YJ−1, with an uncertainty of about 10% (1 YJ = 1024 J).

Study on indoor thermal environment and air quality of office rooms controlled by personal displacement ventilation using CFD

Three-dimensional computational simulations are performed to examine indoor environment and micro-environment around human bodies in an office in terms of thermal environment and air quality. In this study, personal displacement ventilation (PDV), including two cases with all seats taken and two middle seats taken, is compared with overall displacement ventilation (ODV) of all seats taken under the condition that supply temperature is 24℃ and air change rate is 60 l/s per workstation. When using PDV, temperature stratification, the characteristic of displacement ventilation, is obviously observed at the position of occupant’s head and clearer in the case with all seats taken. Verticalertical ertical temperature temperature temperature temperature temperature differences below height of the head areare under under under 2℃ in two cases in two cases in two cases in two cases in two cases in two cases in two cases in two cases with all seats taken，and the temperature with PDV is higher than that with ODV. Verticalertical ertical temperature temperature temperature temperature temperature temperature difference is under 3 under 3under 3 under 3℃ in the case in the case in the case in the case in the case in the case in the case with two middle seats taken. CO2 concentration is lower th is lower th is lower this lower this lower than 2 g/man 2 g/m an 2 g/man 2 g/man 2 g/man 2 g/m 3 in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. in the breath zone. The results indicate that PDV can be used in the room with big change of occupants’ number to satisfy the need of thermal comfort and air quality. When not all seats are taken, designers should increase supply air requirement or reduce its temperature for thermal comfort. INDEX TERMS

Rank histograms of stratified Monte-Carlo ensembles

The application of forecast ensembles to probabilistic weather prediction has spurred considerable interest in their evaluation. Such ensembles are commonly interpreted as Monte Carlo ensembles meaning that the ensemble members are perceived as random draws from a distribution. Under this interpretation, a reasonable property to ask for is statistical consistency, which demands that the ensemble members and the verification behave like draws from the same distribution. A widely used technique to assess statistical consistency of a historical dataset is the rank histogram, which uses as a criterion the number of times that the verification falls between pairs of members of the ordered ensemble. Ensemble evaluation is rendered more specific by stratification, which means that ensembles that satisfy a certain condition (e.g., a certain meteorological regime) are evaluated separately. Fundamental relationships between Monte Carlo ensembles, their rank histograms, and random sampling from the probability simplex according to the Dirichlet distribution are pointed out. Furthermore, the possible benefits and complications of ensemble stratification are discussed. The main conclusion is that a stratified Monte Carlo ensemble might appear inconsistent with the verification even though the original (unstratified) ensemble is consistent. The apparent inconsistency is merely a result of stratification. Stratified rank histograms are thus not necessarily flat. This result is demonstrated by perfect ensemble simulations and supplemented by mathematical arguments. Possible methods to avoid or remove artifacts that stratification induces in the rank histogram are suggested.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.

The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses

Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.

Distribution of β-amylase I haplotypes among European cultivated barleys

The barley β-amylase I (Bmy1) locus encodes a starch breakdown enzyme whose kinetic properties and thermostability are critical during malt production. Studies of allelic variation at the Bmy1 locus have shown that the encoded enzyme can be commonly found in at least three distinct thermostability classes and demonstrated the nucleotide sequence variations responsible for such phenotypic differences. In order to explore the extent of sequence diversity at the Bmy1 locus in cultivated European barley, 464 varieties representing a cross-section of popular varieties grown in western Europe over the past 60 years, were genotyped for three single nucleotide polymorphisms chosen to tag the four common alleles found in the collection. One of these haplotypes, which has not been explicitly recognised in the literature as a distinct allele, was found in 95% of winter varieties in the sample. When release dates of the varieties were considered, the lowest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2L) appeared to decrease in abundance over time, while the highest thermostability allele (Bmy1-Sd2H) was the rarest allele at 5.4% of the sample and was virtually confined to two-row spring varieties. Pedigree analysis was used to track transmission of particular alleles over time and highlighted issues of genetic stratification of the sample.

A reprocessing for climate of sea surface temperature from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers: initial validation, accounting for skin and diurnal variability

An initial validation of the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) retrievals of sea surface temperature (SST) is presented. ATSR-2 and Advanced ATSR (AATSR) SST estimates are compared to drifting buoy and moored buoy observations over the period 1995 to 2008. The primary ATSR estimates are of skin SST, whereas buoys measure SST below the surface. Adjustment is therefore made for the skin effect, for diurnal stratification and for differences in buoy–satellite observation time. With such adjustments, satellite-in situ differences are consistent between day and night within ~ 0.01 K. Satellite-in situ differences are correlated with differences in observation time, because of the diurnal warming and cooling of the ocean. The data are used to verify the average behaviour of physical and empirical models of the warming/cooling rates. Systematic differences between adjusted AATSR and in-situ SSTs against latitude, total column water vapour (TCWV), and wind speed are less than 0.1 K, for all except the most extreme cases (TCWV < 5 kg m–2, TCWV > 60 kg m–2). For all types of retrieval except the nadir-only two-channel (N2), regional biases are less than 0.1 K for 80% of the ocean. Global comparison against drifting buoys shows night time dual-view two-channel (D2) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.23 K and dual-view three-channel (D3) SSTs are warm by 0.06 ± 0.21 K (day-time D2: 0.07 ± 0.23 K). Nadir-only results are N2: 0.03 ± 0.33 K and N3: 0.03 ± 0.19 K showing the improved inter-algorithm consistency to ~ 0.02 K. This represents a marked improvement from the existing operational retrieval algorithms for which inter-algorithm inconsistency is > 0.5 K. Comparison against tropical moored buoys, which are more accurate than drifting buoys, gives lower error estimates (N3: 0.02 ± 0.13 K, D2: 0.03 ± 0.18 K). Comparable results are obtained for ATSR-2, except that the ATSR-2 SSTs are around 0.1 K warm compared to AATSR

Impact of oceanic processes on the carbon cycle during the last termination

During the last termination (from ~18 000 years ago to ~9000 years ago), the climate significantly warmed and the ice sheets melted. Simultaneously, atmospheric CO2 increased from ~190 ppm to ~260 ppm. Although this CO2 rise plays an important role in the deglacial warming, the reasons for its evolution are difficult to explain. Only box models have been used to run transient simulations of this carbon cycle transition, but by forcing the model with data constrained scenarios of the evolution of temperature, sea level, sea ice, NADW formation, Southern Ocean vertical mixing and biological carbon pump. More complex models (including GCMs) have investigated some of these mechanisms but they have only been used to try and explain LGM versus present day steady-state climates. In this study we use a coupled climate-carbon model of intermediate complexity to explore the role of three oceanic processes in transient simulations: the sinking of brines, stratification-dependent diffusion and iron fertilization. Carbonate compensation is accounted for in these simulations. We show that neither iron fertilization nor the sinking of brines alone can account for the evolution of CO2, and that only the combination of the sinking of brines and interactive diffusion can simultaneously simulate the increase in deep Southern Ocean δ13C. The scenario that agrees best with the data takes into account all mechanisms and favours a rapid cessation of the sinking of brines around 18 000 years ago, when the Antarctic ice sheet extent was at its maximum. In this scenario, we make the hypothesis that sea ice formation was then shifted to the open ocean where the salty water is quickly mixed with fresher water, which prevents deep sinking of salty water and therefore breaks down the deep stratification and releases carbon from the abyss. Based on this scenario, it is possible to simulate both the amplitude and timing of the long-term CO2 increase during the last termination in agreement with ice core data. The atmospheric δ13C appears to be highly sensitive to changes in the terrestrial biosphere, underlining the need to better constrain the vegetation evolution during the termination.

Evaluation of genetic markers as instruments for Mendelian randomization studies on vitamin D

Combining SNPs into allele scores provides a more powerful instrument for MR analysis than a single SNP in isolation. Population stratification and the potential for pleiotropic effects need to be considered in MR studies on vitamin D.

The Gly482Ser genotype at the PPARGC1A gene and elevated blood pressure: a meta-analysis involving 13,949 individuals.

The protein encoded by the PPARGC1A gene is expressed at high levels in metabolically active tissues and is involved in the control of oxidative stress via reactive oxygen species detoxification. Several recent reports suggest that the PPARGC1A Gly482Ser (rs8192678) missense polymorphism may relate inversely with blood pressure. We used conventional meta-analysis methods to assess the association between Gly482Ser and systolic (SBP) or diastolic blood pressures (DBP) or hypertension in 13,949 individuals from 17 studies, of which 6,042 were previously unpublished observations. The studies comprised cohorts of white European, Asian, and American Indian adults, and adolescents from South America. Stratified analyses were conducted to control for population stratification. Pooled genotype frequencies were 0.47 (Gly482Gly), 0.42 (Gly482Ser), and 0.11 (Ser482Ser). We found no evidence of association between Gly482Ser and SBP [Gly482Gly: mean = 131.0 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 130.5-131.5 mmHg; Gly482Ser mean = 133.1 mmHg, 95% CI = 132.6-133.6 mmHg; Ser482Ser: mean = 133.5 mmHg, 95% CI = 132.5-134.5 mmHg; P = 0.409] or DBP (Gly482Gly: mean = 80.3 mmHg, 95% CI = 80.0-80.6 mmHg; Gly482Ser mean = 81.5 mmHg, 95% CI = 81.2-81.8 mmHg; Ser482Ser: mean = 82.1 mmHg, 95% CI = 81.5-82.7 mmHg; P = 0.651). Contrary to previous reports, we did not observe significant effect modification by sex (SBP, P = 0.966; DBP, P = 0.715). We were also unable to confirm the previously reported association between the Ser482 allele and hypertension [odds ratio: 0.97, 95% CI = 0.87-1.08, P = 0.585]. These results were materially unchanged when analyses were focused on whites only. However, statistical evidence of gene-age interaction was apparent for DBP [Gly482Gly: 73.5 (72.8, 74.2), Gly482Ser: 77.0 (76.2, 77.8), Ser482Ser: 79.1 (77.4, 80.9), P = 4.20 x 10(-12)] and SBP [Gly482Gly: 121.4 (120.4, 122.5), Gly482Ser: 125.9 (124.6, 127.1), Ser482Ser: 129.2 (126.5, 131.9), P = 7.20 x 10(-12)] in individuals <50 yr (n = 2,511); these genetic effects were absent in those older than 50 yr (n = 5,088) (SBP, P = 0.41; DBP, P = 0.51). Our findings suggest that the PPARGC1A Ser482 allele may be associated with higher blood pressure, but this is only apparent in younger adults.

A novel association of a polymorphism in the first intron of adiponectin gene with type 2 diabetes, obesity and hypoadiponectinemia in Asian Indians

Adiponectin is an adipose tissue specific protein that is decreased in subjects with obesity and type 2 diabetes. The objective of the present study was to examine whether variants in the regulatory regions of the adiponectin gene contribute to type 2 diabetes in Asian Indians. The study comprised of 2,000 normal glucose tolerant (NGT) and 2,000 type 2 diabetic, unrelated subjects randomly selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES), in southern India. Fasting serum adiponectin levels were measured by radioimmunoassay. We identified two proximal promoter SNPs (-11377C-->G and -11282T-->C), one intronic SNP (+10211T-->G) and one exonic SNP (+45T-->G) by SSCP and direct sequencing in a pilot study (n = 500). The +10211T-->G SNP alone was genotyped using PCR-RFLP in 4,000 study subjects. Logistic regression analysis revealed that subjects with TG genotype of +10211T-->G had significantly higher risk for diabetes compared to TT genotype [Odds ratio 1.28; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.07-1.54; P = 0.008]. However, no association with diabetes was observed with GG genotype (P = 0.22). Stratification of the study subjects based on BMI showed that the odds ratio for obesity for the TG genotype was 1.53 (95%CI 1.3-1.8; P < 10(-7)) and that for GG genotype, 2.10 (95% CI 1.3-3.3; P = 0.002). Among NGT subjects, the mean serum adiponectin levels were significantly lower among the GG (P = 0.007) and TG (P = 0.001) genotypes compared to TT genotype. Among Asian Indians there is an association of +10211T-->G polymorphism in the first intron of the adiponectin gene with type 2 diabetes, obesity and hypoadiponectinemia.

The effects of retinoic acid on human corneal stromal keratocytes cultured in vitro under serum-free conditions

Purpose: Retinoic acid (RA) is a metabolite of vitamin A that plays a fundamental role in the development and function of the human eye. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of RA on the phenotype of corneal stromal keratocytes maintained in vitro for extended periods under serum-free conditions. Methods: Keratocytes isolated from human corneas were cultured up to 21 days in serum-free media supplemented with RA or DMSO vehicle. The effects of RA and of its removal after treatment on cell proliferation and morphology were evaluated. In addition, the expression of keratocyte markers was quantified at the transcriptional and protein levels by quantitative PCR and immunoblotting or ELISA, respectively. Furthermore, the effects of RA on keratocyte migration were tested using scratch assays. Results: Keratocytes cultured with RA up to 10×10-6 M showed enhanced proliferation and stratification, and reduced mobility. RA also promoted the expression of keratocyte-characteristic proteoglycans such as keratocan, lumican, and decorin, and increased the amounts of collagen type-I in culture while significantly reducing the expression of matrix metalloproteases 1, 3, and 9. RA effects were reversible, and cell phenotype reverted to that of control after removal of RA from media. Conclusions: RA was shown to control the phenotype of human corneal keratocytes cultured in vitro by regulating cell behaviour and extracellular matrix composition. These findings contribute to our understanding of corneal stromal biology in health and disease, and may prove useful in optimizing keratocyte cultures for applications in tissue engineering, cell biology, and medicine.

Simulated last glacial maximum D14Catm and the deep glacial ocean carbon reservoir

∆14Catm has been estimated as 420 ± 80‰ (IntCal09) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to preindustrial times (0‰), but mechanisms explaining this difference are not yet resolved. ∆14Catm is a function of both cosmogenic production in the high atmosphere and of carbon cycling and partitioning in the Earth system. 10Be-based reconstructions show a contribution of the cosmogenic production term of only 200 ± 200‰ in the LGM. The remaining 220‰ have thus to be explained by changes in the carbon cycle. Recently, Bouttes et al. (2010, 2011) proposed to explain most of the difference in pCO2atm and δ13C between glacial and interglacial times as a result of brine-induced ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean. This mechanism involves the formation of very saline water masses that contribute to high carbon storage in the deep ocean. During glacial times, the sinking of brines is enhanced and more carbon is stored in the deep ocean, lowering pCO2atm. Moreover, the sinking of brines induces increased stratification in the Southern Ocean, which keeps the deep ocean well isolated from the surface. Such an isolated ocean reservoir would be characterized by a low ∆14C signature. Evidence of such 14C-depleted deep waters during the LGM has recently been found in the Southern Ocean (Skinner et al. 2010). The degassing of this carbon with low ∆14C would then reduce ∆14Catm throughout the deglaciation. We have further developed the CLIMBER-2 model to include a cosmogenic production of 14C as well as an interactive atmospheric 14C reservoir. We investigate the role of both the sinking of brine and cosmogenic production, alongside iron fertilization mechanisms, to explain changes in ∆14Catm during the last deglaciation. In our simulations, not only is the sinking of brine mechanism consistent with past ∆14C data, but it also explains most of the differences in pCO2atm and ∆14Catm between the LGM and preindustrial times. Finally, this study represents the first time to our knowledge that a model experiment explains glacial-interglacial differences in pCO2atm, δ13C, and ∆14C together with a coherent LGM climate.

Ocean heat uptake processes: a model intercomparison

We compare the quasi-equilibrium heat balances, as well as their responses to 4×CO2 perturbation, among three global climate models with the aim to identify and explain inter-model differences in ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes. We find that, in quasi-equilibrium, convective and mixed layer processes, as well as eddy-related processes, cause cooling of the subsurface ocean. The cooling is balanced by warming caused by advective and diapycnally diffusive processes. We also find that in the CO2-perturbed climates the largest contribution to OHU comes from changes in vertical mixing processes and the mean circulation, particularly in the extra-tropics, caused both by changes in wind forcing, and by changes in high-latitude buoyancy forcing. There is a substantial warming in the tropics, a significant part of which occurs because of changes in horizontal advection in extra-tropics. Diapycnal diffusion makes only a weak contribution to the OHU, mainly in the tropics, due to increased stratification. There are important qualitative differences in the contribution of eddy-induced advection and isopycnal diffusion to the OHU among the models. The former is related to the different values of the coefficients used in the corresponding scheme. The latter is related to the different tapering formulations of the isopycnal diffusion scheme. These differences affect the OHU in the deep ocean, which is substantial in two of the models, the dominant region of deep warming being the Southern Ocean. However, most of the OHU takes place above 2000 m, and the three models are quantitatively similar in their global OHU efficiency and its breakdown among processes and as a function of latitude.

Isotopic examination of links between diet, social differentiation and DISH at the post-medieval Carmelite Friary of Aalst, Belgium

Stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were measured in human burials from the post-medieval (16th–18th c. AD) Carmelite friary burial grounds at Aalst, a town in Flanders, Belgium. Dietary patterns of 39 adult individuals were analyzed, from a mixed monastic and lay population buried in three different locations, reflecting groups with differing social status. The data show significant variation in the consumption of perhaps meat, but certainly also marine protein between females and males. This result represents a remarkable continuity with medieval dietary patterns, suggesting that the social and economic changes of the early modern period had a limited effect on everyday life. When both sexes were examined together, individuals buried in the cloister garth consumed significantly less marine protein compared to people buried in the church, likely reflecting social stratification. No statistical differences were observed between isotopic values from the church and the cloister alley, suggesting a similarly diverse diet of the monastic part of the buried population and that of the richer lay population. Finally, the hypothesis that diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis (DISH) is linked to a diet rich in animal protein was tested. No systematic or statistically significant differences between pathological and non-pathological bones from the same individuals affected with DISH were observed, and no statistical differences were found between individuals with DISH and individuals without DISH